India in 2024: Narendra Modi once more, but to what end?

Alicia Garcia Herrero & Trinh Nguyen. ARI 57/2019 - 21/5/2019.

This analysis argues that Narendra Modi will have to deliver much bolder reforms in his second term in order to allow India to reach its potential turning its rising working age population into a demographic dividend.

The economic effects of Brexit in the “Campo de Gibraltar”: an econometric approach

Luis Galiano Bastarrica. ARI 26/2019 - 26/2/2019.

The UK’s exit from the EU has become a political maze. Uncertainties increase and so do the negative economic effects, especially on Britain’s European borders: Northern Ireland and the Campo de Gibraltar in Spain.

Spain’s 20 years in the euro: a beneficial straitjacket

William Chislett. Expert Comment 1/2019 - 4/1/2019.

We will never know with certainty whether Spain would have been better off not joining the euro. What we know is that in real GDP growth terms Spain has performed better than Germany, France and Italy since 1999.

Document of interest: G20 Leaders’ declaration. Building consensus for fair and sustainable development

. DI/MI - 5/12/2018.

Final declaration of the G20 summit held in Argentina last weekend. It is focused on the future of work, education and infrastructure, but lacks specific commitments on issues such as trade and climate.

Documento de la declaración final del G20 celebrado en Argentina, centrado en el futuro del trabajo, la educación y las infraestructuras pero sin compromisos concretos en cuestiones como el comercio y el clima.

Italy’s budget battle with the European Commission

Federico Steinberg. Expert Comment 52/2018 - 14/11/2018.

The European Commission has rejected Italy’s proposed draft budget because of how seriously it breached prior fiscal commitments, including an increase in the deficit to 2.4% of GDP, three times higher than originally agreed.

Salvini’s Italy between Greek tragedy and Portuguese fado

Miguel Otero-Iglesias. Expert Comment 48/2018 - 19/10/2018 .

Salvini has struck a heroic pose because he knows it attracts votes in Italy. Conversely, his pugnaciousness makes him many enemies in Brussels and elsewhere. It might not be a bad idea to implement some of the structural improvements recommended by the European Commission.

Juncker and Trump end the trade war and revive a watered-down version of TTIP

Federico Steinberg. Expert Comment 46/2018 (English version) - 2/10/2018.

It is good news that Trump treated Juncker as an equal and has understood that the EU is the key trade partner of the US.

Portugal versus Spain: an Iberian economic saga

Sebastián Puig & Ángel Sánchez. ARI 96/2018 - 6/8/2018.

This paper aims to compare the socio-economic trends of Spain and Portugal. Eventually the goal is to determine the alleged soundness of Portugal’s performance.

Renminbi internationalisation: stuck in mid-river – for now

Miguel Otero-Iglesias. ARI 84/2018 - 4/7/2018.

This paper looks at the internationalisation of the renminbi in May 2018, why it has stagnated since 2015 and what its possible future course might be.

G7 in Canada: Trump’s bravado annoys Europe

Miguel Otero-Iglesias. Expert Comment 32/2018.

The G7 meeting has been one of the most disastrous in years.  The debate in Europe will continue to be whether Trump is just a blip, with the White House returning to the good old Western alliance once he departs, or whether there has been a permanent and structural shift in US foreign policy.