International resolve to address climate change infused COP23 with an inclusive spirit that resulted in enough progress to take us through to negotiation crunch-time at COP24. The well-below 2ºC degree guardrail, our collectively agreed temperature goal, is still however stubbornly out of reach.
The message from world leaders is clear: there is no intention of abandoning the Paris agreement that has taken over five years to negotiate.
The main factors likely to shape the energy and climate fields in 2017 are: a relatively contained volatility in the prices of oil and the implementation of increasingly ambitious climate policies in a context of political uncertainty.
Climate finance has no agreed definition to date. What is hard to define can lend itself to fuzzy conceptualisations
The RES-E (electricity from renewable energy sources) auction in Spain is quite different from other international experiences regarding key design elements, namely investment-based support, uniform pricing, lax prequalification and penalties.
The UK, a traditional energy importer, will have to realign its domestic energy and climate policy goals. It also remains to be seen whether the EU can hinge upon an ambitious international climate policy to compensate for Brexit.
Should Trump insist in pursuing his approach to climate action, China and the European Union will be looked upon by the international community to lead on.
Trump’s ‘supply-side’ energy policy proposals imply only minor impact on the trajectory of renewable energy and the low carbon transition; however, his trade and foreign policies could significantly magnify such impact.
The design of the Paris Agreement set the stage for a technical meeting in COP 22 but the stakes were raised in the aftermath of the US election. Implementation, increased ambition and a just transition are the pending tasks.
Will the fate of the roadmap be any different this time round? It is to be hoped so, but will mostly depend on the narrative deployed by the signatories.
Low oil prices seem to have slightly shifted Algerian political economy balances, making economic (and energy) reform more attractive.