The West and the Challenge of Radical Islam: An Interpretation (ARI)
This paper proposes an interpretation of the rise of radical Islam and its clash with the West based on the tensions within Muslim countries as a result of their modernisation.
International Security
US Strategy in the Middle East: Struggling to Avoid Failure (ARI)
Surveying US history, one is hard pressed to find presidential decisions as monumentally ill-informed and counter-productive as the 2003 decision to invade and occupy Iraq. The question of the hour is whether the US will compound its strategic blunder by attacking Iran.
To What Extent Does Al-Qaeda Still Pose a Threat to European Societies? (ARI)
Al-Qaeda still exists as a terrorist structure differentiated from other groups in the global neo-Salafi Jihadist movement and it continues to pose a real threat to European societies. This threat may be direct or indirect. It is particularly serious in the case of the United Kingdom, although by no means insignificant for other European Union countries.
The OSCE in Unabated Decline (ARI)
This paper assesses the situation and prospects of the OSCE (Organisation for Security and Cooperation in Europe) in light of the experience of the past few years and the ambitions the organisation set itself in its reform agenda. The analysis argues that, irrespective of how banal it may be, in the absence of a fundamental change in the attitude of the participating states it is highly unlikely for the OSCE to regain the role it once had. Either it continues to lose its relevance or at best muddles through as it has done since the mid-1990s.
North Korea’s Nuclear Test: Are the Security Council’s Sanctions Enough? (ARI)
This analysis assesses whether the sanctions against North Korea approved recently by the United Nations Security Council are sufficient or not to substantially modify Pyongyang’s conduct and, ultimately, to force Kim Jong Il’s regime to relinquish the nuclear option. The analysis argues that they may well be insufficient, and that further measures are necessary, although in no case should these include military action.
The War on Terrorism: Is the US Winning? (ARI)
This paper assesses the United States strategy against international terrorism as it has evolved over the past five years. Focusing on the international dimension of American actions, special attention is paid to the scope and internal consistency of declared objectives, as well as to the suitability of the means assigned to the pursuit of the war on terror
The UN’s Fight Against Terrorism: Five Years After 9/11
This ARI describes and analyses the anti-terrorism measures undertaken by the United Nations, and more specifically by the Security Council, since the 9/11 attacks, and explains the problems that are hindering progress
Iran’s nuclear gamble
The critical dynamics of Iran’s international relations might potentially give way to a multi-level short-term escalation
Do Government and Citizens Agree on How to Combat International Terrorism?
This paper looks into the measures adopted to combat international terrorism, the adaptation of domestic national security structures and the perceptions of public opinion in Spain
The Ending of ETA Terrorism: Lessons to Learn and Mistakes to Avoid from Northern Ireland
Lessons learned from the experience in Northern Ireland regarding the end of IRA terrorism, in view of the possibility of the ETA terrorist organisation putting an end to its campaign of violence
The Flu Pandemic: A Global Threat
Few viruses have claimed so many victims in the past as influenza. The possibility of a new pandemic has created a more than justified alarm both socially and in terms of its possible impact on the world’s economies
The Challenges of Drugs, Organised Crime and Terrorism in West and Central Africa
There are numerous factors that explain the increased importance of West and Central Africa in the world map of transnational organised crime and criminal organisations. The effects of political, economic and social shortcomings are amplified by the concurrence of external factors. In this context, well-established foreign transnational criminal networks seeking safe operational bases for their illicit businesses (narcotics, human beings, pirated goods, illegal migration and natural resources) cooperate and cohabit with newly-born and successful West African indigenous criminal networks.
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