International Security

Challenges and opportunities in the neighbourhood Analyses

The Challenges of Drugs, Organised Crime and Terrorism in West and Central Africa

There are numerous factors that explain the increased importance of West and Central Africa in the world map of transnational organised crime and criminal organisations. The effects of political, economic and social shortcomings are amplified by the concurrence of external factors. In this context, well-established foreign transnational criminal networks seeking safe operational bases for their illicit businesses (narcotics, human beings, pirated goods, illegal migration and natural resources) cooperate and cohabit with newly-born and successful West African indigenous criminal networks.

By Antonio L. Mazzitelli

06 Apr 2006 //

18 mins Reading time

International Security Analyses

Pandemics: A Security Risk?

At present a human influenza pandemic is little more than a theoretical possibility. However, and due to the spread of the avian influenza and the fact that there have been cases of bird-to-human transmission, the WHO has issued a pandemic alert to the effect that a new influenza virus subtype is causing disease in human beings but is not yet spreading efficiently and sustainably among the human population. This suggests that the time is ripe for adopting some preparatory action with a view to minimising the damage that could be caused by a pandemic. This analysis assesses the current situation with regard to a possible pandemic caused by the H5N1 virus responsible for avian influenza.

By Rickard Sandell

02 Mar 2006 //

22 mins Reading time

International Security Analyses

Adjusting Military Forces to the New Security Environment, the Case of Three ‘Middle Powers’: Australia, The Netherlands and Norway

This paper provides an overview of the military policies designed and implemented by three mid-sized countries in the context of the current international security environment.

By Roger Cabrera

23 Feb 2006 //

17 mins Reading time

International Security Analyses

Can Multilateralism End the Nuclear Standoff with Iran? (ARI)

Meeting in an emergency session on 4 February, the 35-nation decision-making board of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) voted by an overwhelming margin to send Iran’s nuclear dossier to the United Nations Security Council. The move, which marks an important turning point in international diplomacy towards Iran, initiates a process that could end in punitive sanctions for Tehran if it fails to convince the world that its nuclear programme is for peaceful purposes only. The United States and several other countries believe Iran is trying to build a nuclear weapon. The decision to report Iran to the Security Council reflects a backroom compromise between the United States, Britain and France, which want immediate action on Iran, and Russia and China, which are seeking a delay. As a result, the Security Council will not decide on any concrete action until early March in order to give Iran a one-month grace period to comply with IAEA demands. In any case, it remains far from certain whether the often feckless Security Council will be able to prevent the need for military action to change Tehran’s behaviour, and thus turn Iran into a showcase example of effective multilateralism

By Soeren Kern

06 Feb 2006 //

16 mins Reading time

Future of Europe Analyses

French Nuclear Deterrence According to President Chirac: Reform, Clean Break or Reminder?

This ARI analyses the speech by French President Jacques Chirac on January 19, 2006, at the Île Longue base in Brest, Finisterre, on the subject of France’s nuclear deterrence doctrine. The purpose is to determine whether or not the speech contains doctrinal changes and whether it may be interpreted as a veiled threat to Iran.

By Félix Arteaga

24 Jan 2006 //

18 mins Reading time

International Security Analyses

China and the Iran crisis

China is a party involved in the Iranian crisis, both as a leading buyer and investor in the energy sector being developed by Iran and as a permanent member of the United Nations Security Council, which could once again, in the same way as Iraq, find itself left on the sidelines by the players in a deeper conflict. In recent weeks, the crisis has taken a greater hold, while Beijing maintains a conciliatory and pragmatic attitude, which has allowed it to not lose ground in the Persian Gulf, beyond the freezing of a number of contracts. But the region is no longer what it was, and the cautious calls for Chinese diplomacy conceal a concern for the significant interests invested in Iran during the past five years as part of a far-reaching geopolitical strategy

By Augusto Soto

06 Jan 2006 //

15 mins Reading time

International Security Analyses

Bali II: Will it be a Turning Point?

This ARI reviews the measures being taken, in addition to those that ought to be adopted, for Indonesia to develop a satisfactory response to the threat of Islamist terrorism following the bomb attack in Bali on 1 October 2005.

By Rohan Gunaratna

13 Oct 2005 //

14 mins Reading time

International Security Analyses

Is Judicial Balancing Appropriate in The War on Terror? Contrasting Ordinary Times, Emergencies and Times of Stress

Whether judicial balancing and proportionality analysis are appropriate in cases arising out of the war on terror depends on whether such a war can be conducted under ordinary conditions, or whether it calls for the deployment of emergency powers, or else, whether it calls for the adoption of an intermediate approach consistent with conditions of stress. To strike a proper equilibrium between liberty and security, judicial balancing in the war on terror must be fine-tuned to fit conditions of stress.

By Michel Rosenfeld

02 Sep 2005 //

23 mins Reading time

International Security Analyses

Conceptualising International Terrorism

International terrorism is not exactly the same thing as transnational terrorism. Neither should international terrorism be confused with Islamist terrorism, even though these terms refer to phenomena that at present largely overlap. This paper explains why this is so, proposes two basic criteria for an analytical definition of international terrorism and applies these definitions to the current reality of globalised violence.

By Fernando Reinares

01 Sep 2005 //

16 mins Reading time