Iran’s nuclear gamble
The critical dynamics of Iran’s international relations might potentially give way to a multi-level short-term escalation
International Security
Do Government and Citizens Agree on How to Combat International Terrorism?
This paper looks into the measures adopted to combat international terrorism, the adaptation of domestic national security structures and the perceptions of public opinion in Spain
The Ending of ETA Terrorism: Lessons to Learn and Mistakes to Avoid from Northern Ireland
Lessons learned from the experience in Northern Ireland regarding the end of IRA terrorism, in view of the possibility of the ETA terrorist organisation putting an end to its campaign of violence
The Flu Pandemic: A Global Threat
Few viruses have claimed so many victims in the past as influenza. The possibility of a new pandemic has created a more than justified alarm both socially and in terms of its possible impact on the world’s economies
The Challenges of Drugs, Organised Crime and Terrorism in West and Central Africa
There are numerous factors that explain the increased importance of West and Central Africa in the world map of transnational organised crime and criminal organisations. The effects of political, economic and social shortcomings are amplified by the concurrence of external factors. In this context, well-established foreign transnational criminal networks seeking safe operational bases for their illicit businesses (narcotics, human beings, pirated goods, illegal migration and natural resources) cooperate and cohabit with newly-born and successful West African indigenous criminal networks.
Pandemics: A Security Risk?
At present a human influenza pandemic is little more than a theoretical possibility. However, and due to the spread of the avian influenza and the fact that there have been cases of bird-to-human transmission, the WHO has issued a pandemic alert to the effect that a new influenza virus subtype is causing disease in human beings but is not yet spreading efficiently and sustainably among the human population. This suggests that the time is ripe for adopting some preparatory action with a view to minimising the damage that could be caused by a pandemic. This analysis assesses the current situation with regard to a possible pandemic caused by the H5N1 virus responsible for avian influenza.
Adjusting Military Forces to the New Security Environment, the Case of Three ‘Middle Powers’: Australia, The Netherlands and Norway
This paper provides an overview of the military policies designed and implemented by three mid-sized countries in the context of the current international security environment.
Can Multilateralism End the Nuclear Standoff with Iran? (ARI)
Meeting in an emergency session on 4 February, the 35-nation decision-making board of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) voted by an overwhelming margin to send Iran’s nuclear dossier to the United Nations Security Council. The move, which marks an important turning point in international diplomacy towards Iran, initiates a process that could end in punitive sanctions for Tehran if it fails to convince the world that its nuclear programme is for peaceful purposes only. The United States and several other countries believe Iran is trying to build a nuclear weapon. The decision to report Iran to the Security Council reflects a backroom compromise between the United States, Britain and France, which want immediate action on Iran, and Russia and China, which are seeking a delay. As a result, the Security Council will not decide on any concrete action until early March in order to give Iran a one-month grace period to comply with IAEA demands. In any case, it remains far from certain whether the often feckless Security Council will be able to prevent the need for military action to change Tehran’s behaviour, and thus turn Iran into a showcase example of effective multilateralism
French Nuclear Deterrence According to President Chirac: Reform, Clean Break or Reminder?
This ARI analyses the speech by French President Jacques Chirac on January 19, 2006, at the Île Longue base in Brest, Finisterre, on the subject of France’s nuclear deterrence doctrine. The purpose is to determine whether or not the speech contains doctrinal changes and whether it may be interpreted as a veiled threat to Iran.
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