International Security

Can Multilateralism End the Nuclear Standoff with Iran? (ARI)
International Security Analyses

Can Multilateralism End the Nuclear Standoff with Iran? (ARI)

Meeting in an emergency session on 4 February, the 35-nation decision-making board of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) voted by an overwhelming margin to send Iran’s nuclear dossier to the United Nations Security Council. The move, which marks an important turning point in international diplomacy towards Iran, initiates a process that could end in punitive sanctions for Tehran if it fails to convince the world that its nuclear programme is for peaceful purposes only. The United States and several other countries believe Iran is trying to build a nuclear weapon. The decision to report Iran to the Security Council reflects a backroom compromise between the United States, Britain and France, which want immediate action on Iran, and Russia and China, which are seeking a delay. As a result, the Security Council will not decide on any concrete action until early March in order to give Iran a one-month grace period to comply with IAEA demands. In any case, it remains far from certain whether the often feckless Security Council will be able to prevent the need for military action to change Tehran’s behaviour, and thus turn Iran into a showcase example of effective multilateralism

By Soeren Kern
06 Feb 2006 //
16 mins Reading time
French Nuclear Deterrence According to President Chirac: Reform, Clean Break or Reminder?
Future of Europe Analyses

French Nuclear Deterrence According to President Chirac: Reform, Clean Break or Reminder?

This ARI analyses the speech by French President Jacques Chirac on January 19, 2006, at the Île Longue base in Brest, Finisterre, on the subject of France’s nuclear deterrence doctrine. The purpose is to determine whether or not the speech contains doctrinal changes and whether it may be interpreted as a veiled threat to Iran.

By Félix Arteaga
24 Jan 2006 //
18 mins Reading time
China and the Iran crisis
International Security Analyses

China and the Iran crisis

China is a party involved in the Iranian crisis, both as a leading buyer and investor in the energy sector being developed by Iran and as a permanent member of the United Nations Security Council, which could once again, in the same way as Iraq, find itself left on the sidelines by the players in a deeper conflict. In recent weeks, the crisis has taken a greater hold, while Beijing maintains a conciliatory and pragmatic attitude, which has allowed it to not lose ground in the Persian Gulf, beyond the freezing of a number of contracts. But the region is no longer what it was, and the cautious calls for Chinese diplomacy conceal a concern for the significant interests invested in Iran during the past five years as part of a far-reaching geopolitical strategy

By Augusto Soto
06 Jan 2006 //
15 mins Reading time
Bali II: Will it be a Turning Point?
International Security Analyses

Bali II: Will it be a Turning Point?

This ARI reviews the measures being taken, in addition to those that ought to be adopted, for Indonesia to develop a satisfactory response to the threat of Islamist terrorism following the bomb attack in Bali on 1 October 2005.

By Rohan Gunaratna
13 Oct 2005 //
14 mins Reading time
Is Judicial Balancing Appropriate in The War on Terror? Contrasting Ordinary Times, Emergencies and Times of Stress
International Security Analyses

Is Judicial Balancing Appropriate in The War on Terror? Contrasting Ordinary Times, Emergencies and Times of Stress

Whether judicial balancing and proportionality analysis are appropriate in cases arising out of the war on terror depends on whether such a war can be conducted under ordinary conditions, or whether it calls for the deployment of emergency powers, or else, whether it calls for the adoption of an intermediate approach consistent with conditions of stress. To strike a proper equilibrium between liberty and security, judicial balancing in the war on terror must be fine-tuned to fit conditions of stress.

By Michel Rosenfeld
02 Sep 2005 //
23 mins Reading time
Conceptualising International Terrorism
International Security Analyses

Conceptualising International Terrorism

International terrorism is not exactly the same thing as transnational terrorism. Neither should international terrorism be confused with Islamist terrorism, even though these terms refer to phenomena that at present largely overlap. This paper explains why this is so, proposes two basic criteria for an analytical definition of international terrorism and applies these definitions to the current reality of globalised violence.

By Fernando Reinares
01 Sep 2005 //
16 mins Reading time
The London Bombings and the Broader Strategic Context
International Security Analyses

The London Bombings and the Broader Strategic Context

The UK was uniquely prepared for the challenge of an Islamist terrorist attack in having built an impressively integrated intelligence architecture while pursuing a comprehensive counterterrorism strategy that hinges on making London and British society resilient and in minimising the risks of terrorism. Despite this preparedness the bombers went unnoticed and got through the security dragnet. The London bombings show that the asymmetric threat of terrorism is not going to go away in the near term –instead it is likely to be enduring in nature and potentially deeply divisive within our democratic societies–.

By Magnus Ranstorp
20 Jul 2005 //
15 mins Reading time
The 7 July London Bombings: Islamic Extremism Strikes Again
Future of Europe Analyses

The 7 July London Bombings: Islamic Extremism Strikes Again

London and its citizens were expecting a major terrorist attack basically since 11 September 2001. The question was never ‘whether’ such an attack would take place, but rather ‘when’ it would happen. On Thursday, 7 July, it finally did happen. This article will focus on the aftermath of the attacks and the fall-out for London, the UK, and Europe as a whole.

By Peter Lehr
19 Jul 2005 //
14 mins Reading time
Intelligence-led Counter-terrorism: A Brief Analysis of the UK Domestic Intelligence System’s Response to 9/11 and the Implications of the London Bombings of 7 July 2005
International Security Analyses

Intelligence-led Counter-terrorism: A Brief Analysis of the UK Domestic Intelligence System’s Response to 9/11 and the Implications of the London Bombings of 7 July 2005

This paper discusses intelligence and domestic counter-terrorism in the UK, post 9/11, with an emphasis on intelligence-led counter-terrorism. It also offers a tentative, initial analysis of the implications of the 7 July London bombings, where there is a presumption of a lack of prior intelligence

By Frank Gregory
12 Jul 2005 //
13 mins Reading time
London Terrorist Attacks: the Impact of 7/7 on British Muslims
Future of Europe Analyses

London Terrorist Attacks: the Impact of 7/7 on British Muslims

This ARI explores the implications of the London terrorist bombings of 7 July 2005 for British Muslims, and considers the various reactions and perceptions among Britain’s Muslim communities in the immediate aftermath of these atrocities. It examines the emerging impact of the bombings on British Muslims, and the ways in which the British authorities are responding to their concerns

By Humayun Ansari
12 Jul 2005 //
16 mins Reading time
The new European Gendarmerie Force
Future of Europe Analyses

The new European Gendarmerie Force

The purpose of this analysis is to describe the new force, the European Gendarmerie Force, which undoubtedly is to become a valuable asset in all kinds of crisis management operations. We will review what it involves, how it was created, what are its lines of action and, finally, its place within the European framework

By Enrique Esquivel Lalinde
09 May 2005 //
10 mins Reading time