A seminal person was missing last month from the official events to mark the 50th anniversary of the death of General Franco, the dictator who ruled Spain from 1939 to 1975 after winning a three-year civil war. That person was King Juan Carlos, Franco’s successor as head of state, who, using the dictator’s authoritarian powers, piloted a large part of the country’s transition to democracy and bravely faced down an attempted coup in 1981 by nostalgic Francoists.[1]
Juan Carlos, the grandson of King Alfonso XIII, who went into exile in 1931 when the Second Republic was proclaimed, abdicated in 2014 in favour of his son Felipe. The abdication followed various scandals, including an ill-judged and pricey elephant-hunting trip to Botswana with his former lover Corinna Larsen when Spain was in a double-dip recession and unemployment hit 24%, and a corruption case for which his son-in-law was subsequently jailed for almost six years. The King’s ailing health was another factor.
The Supreme Court investigated Juan Carlos in connection with suspected kickback payments for the contract won by Spanish companies to build the high-speed rail line between Medina and Mecca, but no evidence was found. Juan Carlos has lived in self-imposed exile in Abu Dhabi since 2020. He occasionally visits Spain.
The Socialist-led minority government, with the anti-monarchical hard-left Sumar as its junior partner, has chosen to mark the Franco anniversary with events under the slogan ‘Spain in Liberty’, implying that the country was somehow free as soon as the dictator died. In fact, the transition to democracy, marred by political violence,[2] was hard won. Democracy was not achieved until the 1977 election and its underpinning in the 1978 constitution, which regulated the monarch’s powers. The constitution, approved in a referendum by 88.5% of total votes on a turnout of 67.1% and which has overseen the most stable and prosperous period in Spanish history, has overtaken the 1876-1923 constitution as Spain’s longest lived.
The transition was engineered top down by Juan Carlos, gradualists in the regime, particularly Prime Minister Adolfo Suárez, agreement between the Communist-founded Democratic Junta and the Socialist-led Platform of Democratic Convergence united under the Platajunta on how to proceed,and bottom up pressure from the streets.
Inevitably, the anniversary has sparked debate among the left about the form of government –monarchy or republic–, although with none of the intensity of the pro-republic discourse propagated by the hard-left Unidas Podemos (‘United We Can’) Pablo Iglesias when he was Deputy Prime Minister (2020-21). For the left the ‘original sin’ of Spain’s restored monarchy was that Franco appointed Juan Carlos as his successor (in 1969), which suggested, understandably at that time, that the ‘new’ monarchy was a continuation of the dictatorship rather than a break with it. Franco indeed told the Cortes (his rubber-stamp parliament) that Juan Carlos, as head of state, would contribute ‘to a great extent, so that everything is tied up and well tied up for the future’.[3] No sooner was Juan Carlos proclaimed King after Franco’s death than he began to undo the knots.
Juan Carlos had no choice but to swear allegiance to the principles of the National Movement, the only legal political organisation, when he was proclaimed King two days after Franco’s death. But, at the same time, he said he wanted to be ‘the King of every citizen’ and asserted that ‘a free and modern society requires the participation of all in the decision-making process’.
As well as piloting the transition, Juan Carlos played an important role in projecting Spain’s new image abroad as a democracy, promoting business and restoring international relations, a subject analysed in considerable depth in a book by Charles Powell, Elcano’s Director, to be published in January (El rey Juan Carlos I y la proyección exterior de España, Galaxia Gutenberg). While Franco made just three official visits abroad –to meet Hitler, Mussolini and Petain– plus a single state visit to Portugal (at the invitation of fellow-dictator Oliveira Salazar), Juan Carlos made some 275 state, official and working visits during his reign, which took him to 103 countries.
Generally speaking, left-wing parties, traditionally more pro-republic than the right, are uncomfortable with the fact that it was a head of state appointed by Franco, who propelled the transition to democracy. This ignores the fact that all of Franco’s institutions were intact when the dictator died; his most ardent supporters, many of them from the time of the Civil War, held powerful positions. Reform from within, instead of a decisive break, which the left initially wanted, was the only path to democracy and reconciliation, and even that was bumpy.
Even Manuel Azaña, the President of the Second Republic during the Civil War who died in exile in 1940, believed the way to reinstate freedom in Spain was not by restoring the Republic, which he believed was dead and discredited, but through something new. ‘The republic should not be held in higher esteem simply because its enemies [Francoism] are worse’,[4] he said. By that ‘something new’ he meant consensus on how to attain democracy and reconciliation including the restoration of the monarchy. Rodolfo Llopis (1895-1983), the leader of the Socialist Party in exile, let it be known before Franco died that if a monarch established a real democracy peacefully, his party would loyally support the monarchy.
Spain’s history is characterised by institutional instability: nine constitutions since 1800, including Franco’s Fundamental Laws, which were a kind of constitution, four civil wars, 13 military coups, two restorations of the Bourbon monarchy (1874 and 1975) and two Republics (the first one lasted less than two years).
The Second Republic (1931-39) is still idealised by some on the left. It was democratically elected after a political void, but it did not consolidate democracy or fully govern in a democratic manner. Among its failures during the first months of the Civil War was not controlling public order sufficiently, particularly indiscriminate killings by anarchist groups, and among its errors an overly aggressive anti-clericalism which excluded swathes of society, though the reactionary Roman Catholic Church was a declared enemy of democracy and of much needed social reform.[5]
The monarchy is an apparently anachronistic and undemocratic institution in the 21st century, but in a country so sharply and bitterly divided into two main political blocs it serves Spain better than a republic by standing above the fray and acting as a unifying force and a symbol of stability. King Felipe VI is not identified with any political party, as an elected President of a Third Republic would be.[6] An elected head of state is more prone to behaving partisanly.
In Spain’s case, the monarchy assumes greater importance as an instrument for integrating the whole of a country from which the government of one region, Catalonia, sought to break away in 2017, and another, the Basque Country, has an independence movement supported by a significant minority.
In addition, the gross annual salary of King Felipe (€277,361) and his personal wealth (€2.57 million) are modest, even low, by European monarchy standards.
Felipe González, the Socialist Prime Minister between 1982 and 1996, says a ‘plurinational republic with the right to self-determination’, as defended by Pablo Iglesias, would be ‘the seed of self-destruction’ of Spain as a ‘nation state’. ‘I am radically opposed to that, and with whatever strength I have left, at my age and with the future ahead of me, I will fight it’.[7]
It is striking that many of the most prosperous and democratic countries in the world today are parliamentary monarchies. Of the 25 countries classified as ‘full democracies’ in the 2024 democracy index of the Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU), including Spain, 11 are parliamentary monarchies (see those highlighted in Figure 1).
Figure 1. The Economist Intelligence Unit’s Democracy Index, 2024
| Ranking of full democracies (1) | Overall score out of 10 |
|---|---|
| 1. Norway | 9.81 |
| 2. New Zealand (2) | 9.61 |
| 3. Sweden | 9.39 |
| 4. Iceland | 9.38 |
| 5. Switzerland | 9.32 |
| 6. Finland | 9.30 |
| 7.Denmark | 9.28 |
| 8. Ireland | 9.19 |
| 9.Netherlands | 9.00 |
| 10. Luxembourg | 8.88 |
| 11. Australia (2) | 8.85 |
| 12. Taiwan | 8.78 |
| 13. Germany | 8.73 |
| 14. Canada (2) | 8.69 |
| 15. Uruguay | 8.67 |
| 16. Japan | 8.48 |
| 17. UK | 8.34 |
| 18. Costa Rica | 8.29 |
| 19. Austria | 8.28 |
| 20. Mauritius | 8.23 |
| 21. Estonia | 8.13 |
| 21. Spain | 8.13 |
| 23. Czech Republic | 8.08 |
| 23. Portugal | 8.08 |
| 25. Greece | 8.07 |
Twelve of the top 30 countries in the UN’s Human Development Index (UNHDI) are parliamentary monarchies (see Figure 2).
Figure 2. Human development index, 2025
| Ranking of parliamentary monarchies in the top 30 countries (1) | Score out of 1 |
|---|---|
| 2. Norway | 0.970 |
| 4. Denmark | 0.962 |
| 6. Sweden | 0.959 |
| 7. Australia (2) | 0.958 |
| 8. Netherlands | 0.955 |
| 10. Belgium | 0.951 |
| 13. United Kingdom | 0.946 |
| 16. Canada (2) | 0.939 |
| 17. New Zealand (2) | 0.938 |
| 23. Japan | 0.925 |
| 25. Luxembourg | 0.922 |
| 28. Spain | 0.918 |
A change in the form of the state would not in itself resolve any of Spain’s fundamental problems and could, history suggests, even aggravate them. Proclaiming a Third Republic would entail constitutional reform that would require a degree of political consensus that is impossible to achieve. The reform would require approval by a two-thirds majority of both the Congress and the Senate, followed by elections, ratification of the decision to change the form of government by the same two-thirds of the new Congress and Senate and a referendum.
As the 2016 vote in the UK on whether to leave the EU has amply shown, referendums can be highly divisive, particularly if a decision of considerable importance is approved by a narrow margin as happened with Brexit. In the highly unlikely event that a referendum approved the return to a republic, Spain would probably be even more polarised than it is today.
A poll by Opina 360 published in October showed 52% in favour of a parliamentary monarchy and 43.5% supporting a republic. When broken down on party lines, 5% of Popular Party voters favour a republic and 61% of Socialist voters. By age groups, those born before 1958, by when Franco’s disastrous autarkic economic policies were coming to an end, are the most supportive of the monarchy, while those born between 1995 and 2007 want a republic (see Figure 3).
Figure 3. Parliamentary monarchy versus republic by generations, % support
| Parliamentary monarchy | Republic | |
|---|---|---|
| Born before 1958 | 61.4 | 34.0 |
| Born between 1958 and 1974 | 56.3 | 38.3 |
| Born between 1975 and 1995 | 46.7 | 48.7 |
| Born between 1995 and 2007 | 39.3 | 57.1 |
The institution of the monarchy is only considered the 41st out of Spain’ 50 main problems, according to the state pollster CIS (see Figure 4). King Felipe inherited a toxic situation from his father and has cleaned up the monarchy’s tarnished image. Polls show him to be more popular than Spain’s political leaders and also some European ones. He has subjected the royal palace’s accounts to external audits, in line with practices in the UK, the Netherlands, Denmark, Sweden and Norway, and made the results public. King Felipe has renounced any inheritance from his father and cut off his annual grant of €160,000. Other steps include a ban on immediate royal family members working in the public sector.
Figure 4. What, in your view, is the main problem in Spain? And the second? And the third? (%)
| Ranking of problems out of 50 | Total (%) |
|---|---|
| 1. Housing | 30.4 |
| 2. Immigration | 20.7 |
| 8. Unemployment | 14.2 |
| 9. Corruption and fraud | 10.9 |
| 16. Education | 5.5 |
| 21. Climate change | 4.3 |
| 29. Functioning of democracy | 1.7 |
| 31. Pensions | 1.4 |
| 41. The monarchy | 0.5 |
Why take an unnecessary leap in the dark when the parliamentary monarchy has proved its worth and is not a problem?
[1] Loyalty to the king was stronger than to the 1978 Constitution. General Guillermo Quintana Lacaci, a key player in defusing the 1981 coup on Juan Carlos’s orders, recognized in private that had the king ordered him to let it go ahead he would have done so. See Enrique Moradiellos (2025), ‘Juan Carlos y la transición a la democracia’, El País, 16/XI/2025.
[2] The Basque terrorist group ETA assassinated 808 people between 1975 and 2010. GRAPO (the First of October Revolutionary Anti-Fascist Resistance Groups) was held responsible for around 80 murders. Several extreme-right wing groups, which mainly responded to ETA’s attacks, committed around 60 murders.
[3] Tom Burns Marañón (2025), El legado de Juan Carlos I. De héroe de la transición a rey en el exilio, Almuzara, Córdoba, p. 53.
[4] Letter to Eduardo Blanco Amor dated 12 August 1940, quoted in Juan Francisco Fuentes (2025), Hambre de patria. La idea de España en el exilio republicano, Arzalia Ediciones, Madrid. Francisco Largo Caballero, the Socialist Prime Minister during most of the first year of the conflict and known as the ‘Spanish Lenin’, who died in exile in 1946, was asked in 1931what was his main aspiration for Spain and responded ‘Republic! Republic! Republic!’. Asked the same question a few days before he died, he replied ‘Freedom! Freedom! Freedom!’.
[5] Thirteen bishops and 6,832 priests, nuns, monks and other religious personnel were murdered during the Civil War compared with around 900 clerics during the French Revolution.
[6] See ¿Sirve para algo la monarquía? at https://elpais.com/opinion/2025-12-08/sirve-para-algo-la-monarquia.html by the distinguished sociologist Emilio Lamo de Espinosa, El País, 8/XII/2025.
[7] See https://www.lasexta.com/noticias/nacional/felipe-gonzalez-afirma-que-cambiar-monarquia-republiqueta-que-defiende-iglesias-destruiria-espana_202009235f6bbbcad0cd870001f4c6ce.html.
