Cuba after (Fidel) Castro. Prospects and Possibilities
This paper analyses Cuba’s prospects and possibilities, now that President Fidel Castro has temporarily ceded power to his brother General Raúl Castro
Latin America
Mexican Elections
The preliminary results indicate Felipe Calderon of the National Action Party has won Mexico's presidential election by an extremely narrow margin. However, Andrés Manuel López Obrador of the Party of Democratic Revolution (PRD) said there had been inconsistencies in the voting returns
García Wins: What Comes Next?
The result of the Peruvian election has dispelled the main uncertainty present throughout the campaign: who will be the next president of Peru. However, it has also raised a large number of questions.
Venezuela’s withdrawal from the CAN (Andean Community of Nations) and its effects on regional integration (II): the impact on Mercosur
Venezuela’s withdrawal from the CAN (Andean Community of Nations) has had other repercussions in the region, starting with the nationalisation of hydrocarbons in Bolivia, the break-up of G-3 and a high level of turbulence in Mercosur
Venezuela’s withdrawal from the Andean Community of Nations and the Consequences for Regional Integration (I) (ARI)
The unexpected announcement by Venezuela of its decision to withdraw from the Andean Community of Nations (CAN), plus the nationalisation of Bolivian hydrocarbons, have further shaken the already unsteady scenario of South American regional integration
Gas: A Thorny Issue in Latin America (ARI)*
Following the energy crises in Brazil and Argentina earlier in the decade, and currently in the midst of a world-wide energy crisis, the major energy consumers in the southern extreme of the hemisphere have been exploring different options to ensure their future gas supplies, along with possible regional energy integration plans. All the formulae for adapting regional supply to demand raise political and economic problems difficult to resolve
Pulp Mills Divide the River Plate
The conflict between Argentina and Uruguay over the construction of two pulp mills in the Uruguayan city of Fray Bentos is becoming more serious, although certain moves suggest the possibility of a negotiated settlement.
Michelle Bachelet’s Victory and the Political Future of Chile
The resounding victory of Michelle Bachelet paves the way for another four years of government by Concertación, a centre-left coalition. This will mean a new set of challenges for a singular experience such as that of Chile.
Confronting the Past? The Challenge of Truth, Justice and Reparations in Guatemala
Countries emerging from civil war and repressive dictatorship have tested a variety of transitional justice mechanisms, often in combination with one another. Most have opted for truth commissions, a few have established tribunals, domestic or international, others have purged and reformed key institutions (the security forces, the intelligence apparatus and the judiciary), several have pursued reparations and the occasional country, like Spain, has simply tried to forget. This essay examines the politics of memory in Guatemala, which has been more experimental than many of its peers. Guatemalans have pursued truth, clashed over justice, confronted the challenges of reparations and tinkered with institutional reforms, the first three of which are my principal focus here.
The Obstacles to Regional Integration in Latin America
A common suggestion is that the main obstacles to the process of Latin American integration are external ones that most often have to do with the attitude of US governments, which are more interested in policies of ‘divide and rule’ than in promoting unification. This is the same line of thought that in the 19th century referred to the ‘Balkanisation’ of Latin America. However, beyond the rhetoric expressed in different forums (for example, at the recent Summit of the Americas held in November in Mar del Plata, Argentina), the main causes lie in the internal realities of the region. This paper focuses on three of these realities, two excesses and one deficit: an excess of nationalism and rhetoric, but a deficit of leadership
The Future of Mercosur: An Argentine Perspective
Once again there is an intensifying debate on the efficiency and the future of Mercosur. In this debate, Mercosur’s very existence has been called into question. There is discussion of how to move forward, but occasionally the consideration crops up as to whether it is reasonable to continue on the originally charted route. In recent months, this existential doubt has been especially clear in the Brazilian business sector. The idea of abandoning the customs union and going back to a free-trade zone is once again being considered
The Increase in Bilateral Conflicts in Latin America: Its Consequences In and Outside the Region
Despite multiple –and more intense than ever– calls for Latin American unity, bilateral relations are starting to be affected by a variety of conflicts in a considerable number of countries in the region