Future of Europe - Archivos

Future of Europe Working Papers

War, Terrorism and Elections: Electoral Impact of the Islamist Terror Attacks on Madrid

The impact of the ‘3/11’ terrorist attacks (March 11, 2004) on the Spanish elections held three days later has been the subject of speculation of all kinds. Twelve months later, the time has now come to compare and contrast the hypotheses that have attempted to explain an unexpected electoral result. New data is provided here to help determine the direction and the magnitude of the influence of the attacks on the March 14 elections

By Narciso Michavila

06 Apr 2005 //

75 mins Reading time

Future of Europe Analyses

Who Abstained and Why? Voter Turnout for the Referendum on the Treaty to Establish a European Constitution

A voter turnout rate of 42.3% was registered in the referendum on the European Constitution. Analysis of the available data leads to the following conclusions. First, territorial distribution patterns were very similar to those of the latest European elections. Second, voter turnout revealed a clear sociological profile: abstention was greatest among women, people under 25 years of age, people with the lowest educational levels, the unemployed and housewives. Abstention can thus be interpreted more as a sign of indifference than of rejection. Third, turnout was highest among voters sympathetic to leftist ideology and fourth, an unusually high number of blank and spoiled ballots were cast.

By Eva Anduiza Perea

05 Apr 2005 //

14 mins Reading time

Future of Europe Analyses

Hartz IV in Context: The German Way to Employability

In contrast with other European economies such as the Netherlands, Denmark, Sweden and the UK, the reunified Germany was unable to solve its severe labour market crisis during the 1990s. It was only at the end of the 1990s that Germany also started reforms and enhanced employability as a new goal of its labour market policy, thereby following the approach of its neighbours and the forecasted European employment strategy. In 2005 the latest labour market reforms came into force with Hartz IV. In order to describe the new relations between citizens and the welfare state implied by the so-called activating ‘labour market policy’, Chancellor Gerhard Schröder coined the slogan ‘Challenge and Support’. In the following analysis we will try to understand this German way towards employability

By Irene Dingeldey

18 Mar 2005 //

16 mins Reading time

Future of Europe Analyses

Spain’s Referendum on the European Constitution: a Double Disappointment

Despite the huge majority in favour of the European Constitution, the low turnout (42.32%, ie, seventeen points lower than turnout in 1986 when Spain’s membership of NATO was at stake) calls into question the Government’s two objectives in calling the referendum. The referendum has neither served to open a new space of democratic participation for Spanish society, nor will it serve to export enthusiasm to the rest of the EU in regard to ratification of the Constitutional Treaty. By breaking the psychological barrier of 40% turnout, the referendum cannot be described as a failure, but in view of such low participation the dual purpose can hardly be said to have been fulfilled

By José Ignacio Torreblanca

21 Feb 2005 //

15 mins Reading time

Future of Europe Analyses

The three points of dissensus on the European Constitution

After years of consensus on European issues in our country, the process of ratifying the European Constitution has revealed significant differences regarding the European Union. The new dissensus on Europe is visible in the three main points of the political debate: at the civic level, in the growing distance between the opinions and attitudes of the political class, on one hand, and citizens on the other; in terms of ideology, in the appearance of major tension between the left and the right, but also –and this is new– within the left and the right; and finally, at the territorial level, in the discrepancies over tactics and principles among old and new nationalist parties. In these circumstances, it is reasonable to wonder if the first victim of this new dissensus will be the referendum on the European Constitution. And if so, what will the consequences be?

By José Ignacio Torreblanca

21 Feb 2005 //

18 mins Reading time

Future of Europe Analyses

Europe’s image

It is well known that Europe has ‘internal’ communication difficulties. The EU does not have a ‘face’, a figurehead or political symbol that unequivocally identifies it. If this is true within the EU itself, then what about elsewhere? Europe is the ‘metrosexual’ superpower, which has renounced military and aggressive supremacy as embodied by the US. This stereotype, which was already part of Europe’s self-image as a ‘civilian power’ in the 60s, has returned to the fore. As Europeans, we think that our continent may have been strengthened by the US’s image crisis. But is this the case? How is Europe perceived outside its own borders and those of the United States?

By Javier Noya

03 Feb 2005 //

14 mins Reading time

Future of Europe Analyses

Turkey-EU Relations After the European Summit Meeting: A Historical Decision and a First Step to a Final Destination

The EU Commission and the EU’s leaders are now persuaded that Turkey has made sufficient progress on fulfilling the so-called ‘Copenhagen Political criteria’ regarding democracy, human rights and legal reforms. The European Parliament adopted the resolution for the opening of negotiations with Turkey on December 15, 2004

By Bahri Yilmaz

12 Jan 2005 //

12 mins Reading time

Challenges and opportunities in the neighbourhood Analyses

EU-Turkey Membership Deal, Subject to de facto Recognition of Greek Cyprus

This report examines the historic agreement taken by European Union leaders at their 16-17 December summit in Brussels to begin accession talks with Turkey after 41 years in Europe’s ante-room. The process will begin on 3 October, 2005 provided Turkey has by then tacitly recognised Cyprus, which joined the EU in May.

By William Chislett

20 Dec 2004 //

16 mins Reading time

Uncategorized Analyses

China’s military modernisation and the possible end to the EU arms embargo

The recent end to the EU arms embargo on Libya, announced in Luxemburg on 11 October, has raised new speculation as to a similar measure with respect to the People’s Republic of China (PRC). The country’s armed forces have been undergoing a comprehensive modernisation process over the past decade, but they will not close the technology gap with more advanced countries (something of an embarrassment for an upcoming power) without foreign support.

By Augusto Soto

01 Dec 2004 //

14 mins Reading time

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