Executive summary
The 29th Conference of the Parties (COP29) held in Baku (Azerbaijan), which was dubbed the ‘finance COP’, resulted in an agreement known as the Baku Climate Unity Pact (UNFCCC, 2024a). The conference met against a complex geopolitical backdrop marked by Donald Trump’s re-election in the US and setbacks to the climate agenda in various countries. Despite wary pessimism at the outset (Briones, Lázaro Touza & Tirado Sarti, 2024), COP29 chalked up a number of significant achievements (Chandrasekhar et al., 2024), thanks to which there are hopes of making headway on the increasingly ambitious climate commitments due to be submitted prior to the commencement of COP30.
Thus, a new international climate financing goal was agreed at COP29 (under the name of the New Collective Quantified Goal, NCQG) (UNFCCC, 2024b). The NCQG trebles –in nominal terms– developed countries’ current commitment to devote US$100 billion a year, lifting this to at least US$300 billion/year by 2035. Moreover, a broader financing goal of US$1.3 trillion/year was set for 2035, in response to the demands of developing countries, for which the Baku-Belém Roadmap was devised (UNFCCC, 2024c). The breadth of contributors is expanded in the NCQG and a substantial proportion of public financing is expected to be earmarked for adaptation (OECC, 2024).
Another major landmark was the decision to implement Article 6 of the Paris Agreement in full, an article that refers to cooperation between countries and entities by means of market-based mechanisms (Articles 6.2 and 6.4). Article 6 also contains initiatives unrelated to carbon markets (Article 6.8) (UNFCCC, 2024d). Thanks to the headway made on Article 6, there is the prospect of major improvements to the efficiency of climate initiatives, providing that robust standards are devised to ensure the environmental integrity of the market-based mechanisms.
Progress in the area of adaptation was limited. Nevertheless, guidelines were agreed for the establishment at COP30 of around 100 globally applicable adaptation indicators, out of the 9,000 that had been proposed (Water for Climate Pavilion, 2024). On the other hand, the climate negotiations in Baku failed to make any headway on two areas of special interest to the EU: (a) mitigation in order to implement the COP28 commitment to transition towards the abandonment of fossil fuels, to multiply the roll-out of renewable energies threefold and to double energy efficiency; and (b) progress towards a just transition.
Following the hottest year on record (World Meteorological Organisation, 2025), and on the eve of the 10th anniversary of the signing of the Paris Agreement (UNFCCC, 2015), over the course of 2025 the Parties to the agreement will submit a new round of climate commitments, known as Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs).
Experts in China expect that the world’s leading greenhouse-gas (GHG) emitter will submit its NDC taking into account the (preliminary) targets of its 15th Five-Year Plan (2026-30) –to be unveiled in 2026– to enable the NDC to be more precise and, it is hoped, ambitious (LSE, 2024; Stern, 2024). The hitting of its renewables target in its current NDC (in force up until 2030) –six years before forecast– is a positive omen for the ambition of the updated NDC, in contrast both to the delay in meeting its energy and carbon intensity targets (Patel, 2025) and to the greater weight given to security and growth at the March meeting of the National People’s Congress (NPC) and the Chinese People’s Political Consultative Conference (CPPCC), known as the ‘two sessions’ (Ríos, 2024). Nevertheless, China has let it be known that it will stick to its course in regard to the energy transition and increase its influence on global climate governance (Bonet, 2025), in clear opposition to the US stance.
The US unveiled its NDC in December 2024 (Government of the USA, 2024), with the Biden Administration still in office, but this will cease to prevail with the country’s withdrawal from the Paris Agreement in January 2026 (UNFCCC, 2017), despite Trump’s announcement that the withdrawal would take immediate effect. The EU is set to delay submitting its NDC until the second half of 2025 because establishing the emissions reduction target for 2040 (which at the time of writing is still pending) is the preliminary step to setting the 2035 target. The summary report of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) regarding the updated climate commitments (the NDCs) –due to by published in the second half of 2025– will in all likelihood show the growing gulf between these commitments and the climate targets.
COP30 will also focus on financing, although Corrêa do Lago, President of COP30, has said that all the substantive elements pending negotiation are important if the talks in Belém are to make headway (Corrêa do Lago, 2025c). Thus, he will publish a report on the Baku to Belém Roadmap to achieve the US$1.3 trillion in climate finance by 2035 and progress is expected in terms of possible duties on the air and maritime transport sectors based on the work of the Global Solidarity Levies Task Force. Progress is also expected on implementing the recommendations of the Global Stocktake (GST) and on the protection of biodiversity and forests, both essential for Brazil. Adaptation will continue gaining protagonism with the drawing up of 100 indicators to assess compliance with the Global Goal on Adaptation(GGA) and with Brazil requesting that countries submit their National Adaptation Plans (NAPs) prior to COP30. Both at the inter-session meetings in Bonn in June as well as at COP30 progress is expected on the just transition work programme with the goal of cushioning the impacts of the energy transition (Ibid). Headway is also expected to be made on the interconnection between various instruments for addressing losses and damages, given the growing impacts of climate change. Despite the fundamental role of water in adaptation to the impacts of climate change, the President has not given it a prominent place on the agenda in the run-up to COP30. The Baku Declaration on Water for Climate Action is an opportunity to strengthen the role water plays in international climate policies.
Now that the negotiations around Article 6 have been concluded, and with them the last piece of the jigsaw in the Paris Agreement rules, attention is expected to return to the future of the climate negotiations and how to simplify them and foster climate initiatives, strengthening ties to actors who are not ‘Parties’ to the Paris Agreement, and setting clear priorities regarding the actions to be carried out (Federal Foreign Office, 2025).
Lastly, the following recommendations are put forward for COP30:
- Actively strengthen the existing alliances and nurture the joint leadership exercised by the Parties still adhering to the Paris Agreement following the withdrawal of the US.
- Broaden the regionalised information relating to financing requirements, increase the amount of climate funding available and enhance access to such funding.
- Devise a plan for closing the ambition gap, one that transcends the annual requirement to update the NDCs.
- Reach an agreement regarding the 100 indicators for making progress on the Global Goal on Adaptation and equip developing countries with the means to monitor the indicators.
- Devise a platform for exchanging experiences on the governance of the just transition and work towards a Global Just Transition Framework.
