The regime of Alexander Lukashenka in Belarus continues to repress peaceful protesters who persist in their struggle for a democratic future, and police violence has reached unprecedented levels. Given the scale of public support for the Belarusian opposition leader, Svetlana Tikhanovskaya, the opposition to a sixth term for Lukashenka is unlikely to diminish. The EU has reacted with sanctions, but protesters and members of the opposition largely perceive its response to be lukewarm and insufficient.

What is the current state of play after five months of protests and repression and what can we expect in the months ahead? What are the chances for regime change in Belarus in 2021, and to what extent will Russia influence this? How can the EU and its member states best support the democratic transition in Belarus?


  • Charles Powell,Director, Elcano Royal Institute. (@CharlesTPowell)
  • Svetlana Tikhanovskaya, Leader of Democratic Belarus, human rights activist. (@Tsihanouskaya)
  • Mantas Adomenas, Vice-Minister for Foreign Affairs of the Republic of Lithuania.
  • Marcin Przydacz, Undersecretary of State for Security, the Americas, Asia and Eastern Policy of Poland. (@marcin_przydacz)
  • Cristina Gallach, State Secretary for Foreign Affairs and for Ibero-America and the Caribbean, Ministry of Foreign Affairs, European Union and Cooperation of Spain. (@cristinagallach)
  • Mira Milosevich, Senior Analyst at the Elcano Royal Institute. (@MiraMilosevich1)
  • Hanna Liubakova, journalist and non-resident Fellow at the Atlantic Council. (@HannaLiubakova)
  • Kamil Kłysiński, Centre for Eastern Studies of Warsaw.
  • Vytis Jurkonis, Institute of International Relations and Political Science of Vilnius.

Wednesday, 10th February 2021, from 10:00 to 11:30 hrs. CET (UTC+1)

Vídeo: Webinar “Where is Belarus heading?” #BelarusFuture (1:30:30)