The return to power of the Taliban in Afghanistan has significant immediate and long-term geostrategic implications at the regional and international level, especially in terms of security and stability.
The Taliban’s victory could boost radicalisation and terrorist recruitment which may lead to an increase of violent extremism across the region. Uncertainties remain to what extent the country will provide a more permissive space or even a sanctuary for regional actors and transnational jihadist networks. This could prove an additional threat to neighbouring states already faced with domestic issues such difficult socio-economic conditions and precarious legitimacy.
In addition, this new political scenario may affect the balance of power in Southern and Central Asia, the broader Indo-Pacific region, and the international system. The strategic void left by the US and NATO retreat poses the question of their international image, credibility, and influence, but also that of the promotion of democracy and democratic state building efforts.
The Taliban takeover would also influence the relations between key regional and global actors, including geopolitical rivalries, for example between the US and China and Pakistan and India, but also regional cooperation efforts on security. The role of international organizations and multilateral diplomacy is another open issue.
- Aizaz Ahmad Chaudhry, Director General, Institute of Strategic Studies Islamabad (ISSI) (@aizaz1101)
- Andrew Small, Senior Transatlantic Fellow, Asia Program, German Marshall Fund of the US (GMF) (@ajwsmall)
- Lailuma Sadid, Afghan Senior Correspondent, Brussels Morning Newspaper (@Lailuma9)
Moderator: Charles Powell, Director, Elcano Royal Institute.
Thursday, 23rd September 2021, from 12:00 to 13:15 h. CEST (UTC+2)