TWENTY-NINETH EDITION OF THE BAROMETER OF THE ELCANO ROYAL INSTITUTE (March-April 2012)
Press Summary
Technical Data
1st WAVE
Universe:general Spanish population, aged 18 and over (including Ceuta and Melilla).
Sample size:N = 1,000 interviewees.
Interview methodology used:telephone (interviewee called at home).
Sample size:stratified, directly proportionate to the distribution of the national population, with proportionate quotas according to age and gender.
Sample error:±3.2 for global data (1,000n); ±4.0 for subsamples (500n), p = q = 0.5 and a confidence interval of 95.5.
Survey period:from 15 to 29 March 2012.
Field work:GAD3 (formerly known as Gabinete de Análisis Demoscópico).
2nd WAVE
Universe:general Spanish population, aged 18 and over (including Ceuta and Melilla).
Sample size:N = 500 interviewees.
Interview methodology used:telephone (interviewee called at home).
Sample size:stratified, directly proportionate to the distribution of the national population, with proportionate quotas according to age and gender.
Sample error:±3.2 for global data (1,000n); ±4.0 for subsamples (500n), p = q = 0.5 and a confidence interval of 95.5.
Survey period:from 13 to 17 April 2012.Field work:GAD3 (formerly known as Gabinete de Análisis Demoscópico).
- UNANIMOUS CONDEMNATION OF ARGENTINA’S NATIONALISATION OF REPSOL-YPF
- Following recent events, 90% of Spaniards consider very serious the Argentine government’s nationalisation of Repsol-YPF and the obstacles placed in the way of Spanish companies that invest in Argentina.
¿How do you consider the situation that Argentina’s nationalisation of Repsol-YPF has given rise to?
| Very serious | Quite serious | Somewhat serious | Not very serious | Not at all serious | DK | NC |
| 14.2% | 40.7% | 27.7% | 5.3% | 2.9% | 8.0% | 1.2% |
- Forty-four percent of Spaniards believe that the diplomatic relations between Spain and Argentina will deteriorate as a result.
¿And how do you think it will affect the future relations between Spain and Argentina?
| Will improve | Will remain the same | Will deteriorate | NS | NC |
| 11.8% | 34.7% | 44.1% | 8.2% | 1.2% |
- The outcome has been that Spanish public opinion now has a negative opinion of Argentina’s President Cristina Fernández de Kirchner. If in March her score was 5, following the Repsol-YPF incident it has dropped to 3.4, making her one of the least liked international leaders, between Raúl Castro and Vladimir Putin.
- The events are especially serious given the Spanish people’s sympathy for Argentina. In the Falklands dispute, most Spaniards are on Argentina’s side, over 50% thinking it is right in its claim over the Islands.
There is tension between the UK and Argentina on account of the Falkland Islands dispute. Who do you think is right?
| UK | Argentina | Both | Neither | DK/NA |
| 7.4 | 50.0 | 11.1 | 4.5 | 27.1 |
- Fifty-eight percent of those interviewed believe that the Falklands conflict between the UK and Argentina is similar to Spain’s dispute with the UK over the sovereignty of Gibraltar.
In your opinion, is there any similarity with the dispute over Gibraltar between the UK and Spain?
| Yes | No | DK/NA |
| 58.4 | 23.7 | 17.9 |
- Although Cameron and Rajoy have talked about Gibraltar, most Spaniards don’t think there will be any change. Around 70% believe no progress will be made.
Mariano Rajoy and David Cameron have talked about Gibraltar. Do you expect any progress or will things stay as they are now?
| Will stay the same | Progress | DK | NA |
| 69.8% | 19.2% | 7.5% | 3.4% |
- THE EUROPEAN LEADERS’ CRITICISM OF SPAIN HAS NOT UNDERMINED NATIONAL CONFIDENCE
- Criticism of Spain has deteriorated the popularity of the European leaders who have pointed at Spain as the problem in the Euro crisis. Sarkozy is down 1 point in popularity, with Spanish public opinion having dropped him from the pass mark to fail, from 5.1 to 4.1. The same has happened to Monti, who has dropped from 4.8 to 3.8.
- Despite the criticism and news items such as the rise in the risk premium, most Spaniards (57%) continue to believe that that Spain will not have to be bailed out by the international financial institutions.
Do you think Spain will have to be bailed out by the EU?
| Yes | No | DK | NA |
| 30.8% | 57.3% | 10.1% | 1.7% |
- As regards the Greek crisis, most Spaniards (54%) are in favour of Spain remaining within the Euro Zone. Only one of every three thinks it should leave.
Do you think Greece should exit the euro?
| Yes | No | DK/NA |
| 32.0 | 53.8 | 14.2 |
- Among the possible threats for Spain, the break-up of the euro is considered ‘very serious’ by 44% of Spaniards, and ‘serious’ by another 44%. Hence, the public is worried and the possibility of the euro breaking up is considered to be an important problem in the event of occurring.
- GROWING CRITICISM OF GERMANY
- Three of every four Spaniards (73%) believe that ‘Germany does not consider the interests of countries like Spain’.
- Sixty percent think ‘all member countries should have the same influence in the EU’.
How much do you agree with the following opinions about Germany?
| Agree very much | Agree | Neither agree nor disagree | Disagree | Disagree very much | DK/NA | |
| Germany is currently the dominant country in Europe | 55.3 | 31.7 | 3.4 | 5,8 | 0.6 | 3.2 |
| Germany does not take into consideration Spain’s interests | 28.5 | 35.3 | 12.6 | 16,0 | 2.8 | 4.8 |
| Europe needs countries that show leadership like Germany | 19.2 | 40.7 | 9.4 | 21.4 | 6.4 | 3.0 |
| Spain should strengthen its relations with Germany | 31.9 | 41.9 | 12.0 | 7.6 | 2.2 | 4.4 |
| All member countries should have the same influence in Europe | 27.1 | 33.3 | 14.8 | 19.0 | 1.8 | 4.0 |
- Despite this, Germany, along with Japan, are the best considered by Spaniards.
What score, from 0 to 10 (0 being very negative and 10 very positive), would you give the following countries?:
| Score | NA | NS | |
| Germany | 6.4 | 0.2 | 1.4 |
| US | 6.2 | 0.4 | 1.4 |
| France | 5.4 | 0.2 | 1.4 |
| Greece | 4.5 | 0.4 | 2.8 |
| Portugal | 5.1 | 0.4 | 1.6 |
| Italy | 5.4 | 0.4 | 1.2 |
| Iran | 4.0 | 1.4 | 3.6 |
| China | 5.3 | 1.2 | 3.4 |
| Brazil | 5.7 | 1.2 | 3.0 |
| India | 5.4 | 1.2 | 4.6 |
| Morocco | 4.3 | 0.8 | 3.4 |
| Japan | 6.2 | 1.4 | 3.0 |
- PUTIN’S POOR IMAGE
- Angela Merkel is still amongst the best valued international leaders, in second place after Obama. At the other extreme, the worst scores are for Vladimir Putin (3.4) and Raúl Castro (2.7).
What score, from 0 to 10 (0 being very negative and 10 very positive), would you give each of these leaders?:
| Score | NA | NS | |
| David Cameron | 5.1 | 10.6 | 12.6 |
| Nicolas Sarkozy | 5.1 | 1.6 | 8.2 |
| Barack Obama | 6.2 | 1.0 | 7.4 |
| Christine Lagarde | 4.9 | 16.4 | 13.6 |
| Mario Monti | 4.8 | 13.0 | 13.4 |
| Angela Merkel | 5.6 | 2.4 | 8.6 |
| JM Durão Barroso | 5.0 | 15.4 | 12.0 |
| Herman Van Rompuy | 4.6 | 24.4 | 13.6 |
| Catherine Ashton | 4.5 | 27.1 | 13.2 |
| Lucas Papademos | 3.8 | 18.0 | 11.8 |
| Vladimir Putin | 3.4 | 11.0 | 8.8 |
| Cristina Fernández de Kirchner | 5.0 | 10.8 | 9.8 |
| Raúl Castro | 2.7 | 6.6 | 8.2 |
Data from the first wave (March)
IRAN
- Seventy five percent of those interviewed believe the Iranian nuclear research programme has a military purpose.
Despite the warnings from the international community, Iran is continuing with its uranium enrichment programme. What do you think is its purpose?
| Peaceful, civil use | Military, develop nuclear weapons | Indifferent | DK/NA |
| 7.0 | 74.9 | 8.4 | 9.6 |
- Even so, 62% believe economic sanctions should be applied, with only 11% being in favour of the use of force.
What should be done if Iran refuses to halt its nuclear programme?
| Use force | Apply economic sanctions | Other | Indifferent | DK/NA |
| 11,2 | 62,1 | 6,4 | 8,6 | 11,6 |
- Sixty six percent of Spaniards think that the possibility of Iran cutting off oil supplies is a serious threat to Spain.
Is the possibility of Iran cutting off oil supplies to the West a threat to Spain?
| Very much so | Quite | Somewhat | Not at all | DK | NA |
| 29.4% | 36.1% | 21.2% | 4.3% | 7.9% | 1.1% |
- CAMPAIGN AGAINST SPANISH SPORT
- Following the Contador case, 85% of Spaniards think that ‘the foreign press have taken advantage of the ruling against the cyclist to discredit Spanish sport’.
- Eighty one percent believe that ‘some international news media are interested in discrediting Spanish sport’.
How true are the following statements? Very, quite, not much or not at all?
| Very | Quite | Not much | Not at all | DK/NA | |
| Success in sports helps improve a country’s image abroad | 44.3 | 40.4 | 11.4 | 2.9 | 1.1 |
| Spain’s image conjures up extravagance and economic collapse | 30.3 | 41.0 | 20.4 | 5.0 | 3.3 |
| Big sporting events like Formula 1 races and the Olympic Games attract investments and create jobs | 26.1 | 41.9 | 21.9 | 7.5 | 2.6 |
| The foreign press has taken advantage of the penalty imposed on the cyclist Alberto Contador to discredit Spanish sport | 46.1 | 37.9 | 11.2 | 1.8 | 3.1 |
- SPAIN’S IMAGE
- While an overwhelming majority believe there is an intentional campaign, the percentage is lower as regards other aspects of Spain’s image: 61% think that ‘some international news media are interested in discrediting Spain’s international image’
- Another 55% believe there is also a campaign against Spanish companies.
Do you think some international media are interested in discrediting…?
| Yes | No | DK/DA | |
| The image of Spanish sport | 81.1 | 15.8 | 3.1 |
| Spain’s international image | 64.4 | 29.2 | 6.4 |
| Spanish companies | 55.2 | 34.7 | 10.1 |
| The image abroad of Spain’s regions | 49.9 | 37.6 | 12.5 |
| Spanish products | 60.4 | 31.9 | 7.7 |
- MAINTAIN AID AND DEVELOPMENT COOPERATION
- In the current context of crisis and adjustments in public spending, not even 10% of Spaniards are in favour of cutting expenditure on aid and development cooperation.
Should the state increase, maintain or reduce the expenditure on the following:
| Increase | Maintain | Reduce | Don’t care | DK/DA | |
| Education and scholarships | 63.7 | 33.3 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| Defence | 10.8 | 56.1 | 31.9 | 0.4 | 0.8 |
| Aid and development cooperation | 39.5 | 53.9 | 5.8 | 0.2 | 0.6 |
| Culture | 46.3 | 49.9 | 3.4 | 0.4 | – |
| Law and order | 27.7 | 64.5 | 7.2 | 0.4 | 0.2 |
| Promotion of Spanish culture abroad | 27.1 | 60.5 | 11.4 | 0.6 | 0.4 |
| Promotion abroad of culture of Spanish regions | 17.8 | 63.1 | 16.4 | 1.4 | 1.2 |
| Embassies, consulates, etc | 8.8 | 58.1 | 31.1 | 1.2 | 0.8 |
- As regards the kidnapping of aid workers in Africa, only a minority of Spaniards want them to be prevented from going (32%). Thirty-eight percent believe they should continue to go, but with support from international armed forces, while 10% think they should be provided with protection from private security companies paid by NGOs.
Some aid workers have been kidnapped in Africa. What do you think should be done given the lack of security in the areas in which they operate?
| Prevent them from going | Provide them with international military support | Make them go with private security | DK | DA |
| 32.8% | 38.3% | 9.9% | 12.3% | 6.7% |
- ARAB SPRING AND SYRIA
- In general, pessimism is the prevailing view about the present and future of the changes in the Arab countries, and particularly in Syria’s case.
In your opinion, how are the transitions to democracy progressing in…?
| Very well | Well | Indifferently | Poorly | Very poorly | DK/DA | |
| Tunisia | 0.4 | 11.8 | 16.8 | 36.5 | 11.6 | 23.0 |
| Egypt | – | 3.8 | 13.4 | 44.7 | 21.8 | 16.4 |
| Syria | – | 2.6 | 9.4 | 34.3 | 37.9 | 15.8 |
| Libya | – | 5.6 | 15.6 | 38.9 | 21.6 | 18.4 |
| Morocco | 0.2 | 7.8 | 27.3 | 30.1 | 16.8 | 17.8 |
- At present, in this latter case, 50% of Spaniards are in favour of military intervention by the international community to topple the regime.
Do you think the international community should intervene in Syria to topple the current regime and help the country’s transition to democracy?
| Yes | No | DK/DA |
| 50.9 | 30.7 | 18.4 |
- However, one out of every four Spaniards is not in favour of Spain’s participation in such a mission.
Should Spain take part in a future international mission to Syria?
| Yes | No | DK/DA |
| 32.7 | 52.7 | 14.6 |
