Key messages
- Trump’s second-term immigration agenda is a systemic contraction of legal immigration to the US, relying on executive authority to limit access to temporary and permanent immigration, humanitarian protection and temporary legal pathways.
- Permanent visas for wealthy investors and temporary visas for seasonal farmworkers are two of the few areas in which Trump is seeking to expand access.
- Trump’s efforts to reduce legal immigration are redefining the types of immigrants the US will admit, thereby affecting the US’s demographic composition, creating a larger number of undocumented immigrants, imposing economic costs on the US, accelerating global talent competition and undermining global protection.
Analysis
Introduction
Donald J. Trump’s return to the White House in January 2025 has been accompanied by rapid and far-reaching attempts to overhaul the US immigration system. While immigration apprehensions, detentions and deportations dominate political debate, changes to the US legal immigration policy are transforming who can be admitted to the country. Through executive orders, administrative freezes and regulatory changes, Trump has implemented visa bans and suspensions, narrowed humanitarian protection, raised barriers for temporary workers and students, and reduced permanent immigration channels. His reforms are reshaping the composition of immigration to the US and producing significant US and international spillover effects.
Temporary and permanent visas
The US government issued nearly 11 million non-immigrant (temporary) visas in fiscal year (FY) 2024. Of this total, it issued 6.5 million B-1/B-2 visas for temporary visitors (business and pleasure), 2 million B1/B2/BCC visas for certain Mexican nationals who regularly cross the border, 425,000 F visas for students, and almost 1.2 million for foreign workers (along with immediate family members) across multiple categories, such as 315,000 for H-2A seasonal agriculture workers, 225,000 for H-1B high-skilled workers and 140,000 for H-2B seasonal non-agricultural workers.
In FY 2023 the government issued 1.1 million immigrant (permanent) visas, also known as green cards. Of this total, 64% were relatives of US citizens and 17% were based on employment sponsorship. The remaining were for humanitarian protection of refugees and asylees (9%), the Diversity Visa (DV) programme (6%) and other smaller categories (note that at the time of drafting, the US government has not finalised its FY 2024 report that provides comprehensive data on immigrant visas issued during the fiscal year.)
Obstacles
The Administration has implemented several sweeping actions to reduce access to temporary and permanent immigration.
Travel bans and entry restrictions
On 20 January 2025, Trump’s first day in office, he revived the so-called Muslim ban policy from his first term, issuing an Executive Order that directed his Administration to identify countries that should be subject to a full or partial visa ban.
Six months later, the Administration announced that it would suspend entry for nationals of 19 countries. Trump justified this action because of an alleged hate crime committed by an Egyptian national in Boulder, Colorado, though he did not add Egypt to the list of 19 countries. In December 2025 the Administration added 20 more countries to the list of suspended nationalities after an Afghan citizen was charged with shooting two US National Guard members in Washington DC. In both cases, Trump cited national security concerns about insufficient vetting and refusals to accept US deportees to justify his actions.
In January, the Administration announced a pause in issuing permanent visas to nationals of an additional 75 countries. This Administration claimed the pause was necessary because it is conducting a review of policies, regulations and guidance to ensure that admitted permanent immigrants do not use US welfare services or become a ‘public charge’, a term used for individuals who could become primarily dependent on public assistance to meet basic needs. In early February a coalition of US citizens, immigrants and non-profit organisations filed a lawsuit challenging the pause.
Taken together, nearly 60% of countries worldwide are now subject to a full or partial visa ban to the US due to these three actions. In addition, hundreds of thousands of individuals already in the US who are otherwise eligible to obtain or maintain lawful immigration status to obtain a green card or US citizenship are in a legal limbo.
Figure 2. Nationals of countries subject to full entry bans
| Region | Countries |
|---|---|
| Africa | Burkina Faso, Chad, Democratic Republic of the Congo, Equatorial Guinea, Eritrea, Mali, Niger, Sierra Leone, Somalia, South Sudan, Sudan |
| Americas | Haiti |
| Asia | Laos, Myanmar |
| Europe/Eurasia | |
| Middle East | Iran, individuals with Palestinian-Authority travel documents, Syria, Yemen |
Figure 3. Nationals of countries subject to partial travel restrictions
| Region | Countries |
|---|---|
| Africa | Angola, Benin, Burundi, Cote d’Ivoire, Gabon, The Gambia, Libya, Malawi, Mauritania, Nigeria, Senegal, Tanzania, Togo, Zambia, Zimbabwe |
| Americas | Antigua and Barbuda, Cuba, Dominica, Venezuela |
| Asia | Afghanistan, Tonga, Turkmenistan |
| Europe/Eurasia | |
| Middle East |
Figure 4. Nationals of countries subject to the immigrant visa pause
| Region | Countries |
|---|---|
| Africa | Algeria, Cameroon, Cape Verde, Cote d’Ivoire (Ivory Coast), Democratic Republic of the Congo, Egypt, Eritrea, Ethiopia, The Gambia, Ghana, Guinea, Liberia, Libya, Morocco, Nigeria, Republic of the Congo, Rwanda, Senegal, Sierra Leone, Somalia, South Sudan, Sudan, Tanzania, Togo, Tunisia, Uganda |
| Americas | Antigua and Barbuda, Bahamas, Barbados, Belize, Brazil, Colombia, Cuba, Dominica, Grenada, Guatemala, Haiti, Jamaica, Nicaragua, Saint Kitts and Nevis, Saint Lucia, Saint Vincent and the Grenadines, Uruguay |
| Asia | Afghanistan, Armenia, Azerbaijan, Bangladesh, Bhutan, Burma (Myanmar), Cambodia, Fiji, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyz Republic, Laos, Mongolia, Nepal, Pakistan, Thailand, Uzbekistan |
| Europe/Eurasia | Albania, Belarus, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Georgia, Kosovo, Moldova, Montenegro, North Macedonia, Russia |
| Middle East | Iran, Iraq, Jordan, Kuwait, Lebanon, Syria, Yemen |
Public charge rule
In November 2025 the Administration issued a proposed rule granting US officers broad discretion to deny green cards to anyone they should deem likely to use public benefits in the future. It was built on a rule issued by Trump’s first Administration in 2019, but was later rescinded and replaced in 2022 by Biden. The rule is expected to be finalised in early 2026.
In the meantime, US consular officers working overseas received guidance in late 2025 that directed them to thoroughly vet applicants to ensure they would not rely on US public benefits if issued a visa. They are required to consider a visa applicant’s age and health, including obesity and mental health, in deciding if someone is likely to become a public charge. This makes it more difficult for foreign nationals with certain medical conditions, such as diabetes or obesity, or those who lack the economic resources, to obtain a visa.
Visa revocations
In January, the Administration boasted that it had revoked more than 100,000 visas since Trump took office last year, an increase of 150% from 2024. This includes 8,000 student visas and 2,500 specialised visas. Some of the leading causes for revocation were driving under the influence of alcohol, assault and theft.
Temporary visas
High-skilled worker visas
At the end of Trump’s first term, he imposed a temporary ban on the H-1B visa programme, which allows employers to petition for highly-educated professionals to work temporarily in certain occupations. A federal court later struck down the ban.
However, in November 2024, as President-elect for his second term, he defended the programme. He said, ‘It’s a great program’; and added, ‘I have many H-1B visas on my properties. I’ve been a believer in H-1B’. In June 2025 he backed the programme again, saying the country does not have enough people with ‘certain talents’ to fill certain jobs.
High-skilled visas have been a divisive issue in the Republican Party, creating rifts in Trump’s coalition. He has faced a backlash from some of his most influential supporters after he started publicly supporting the H-1B programme. Young conservatives have particularly become outspoken in their opposition.
The Administration announced a proposed final rule in September 2025 to update the H-1B lottery selection process, eliminating random selection and prioritising higher-skilled, higher-paid applicants. Most notably, the new process now includes a US$100,000 fee for new visa petitions on behalf of beneficiaries outside the US. Previously, it cost between US$2,000 and US$5,000 per petition, depending on the employer’s size.
The annual statutory cap is 65,000 visas, with 20,000 additional visas for professionals who graduate with a master’s degree or doctorate from a US educational institution. H-1B workers are often in fields such as mathematics, engineering, technology and medical science. Amazon was the biggest sponsor of H-1B workers for FY 2025, followed by Microsoft, Meta, Apple and Google. In FY 2024 over 70% of H-1B visa holders were Indian nationals.
The Administration has argued the reforms are critical to protect US workers and avoid suppressing wages by preventing companies from importing lower-wage labour. However, in response, large companies have begun expanding their local workforces, including in their Indian outsourcing hubs. Moreover, some organisations have argued that the fee constitutes a tax on talent and that start-ups and small businesses will be unable to afford it.
Lawsuits filed by 20 US State Attorneys General and the US Chamber of Commerce argue that the fee is illegal. A federal court ruled against the Chamber of Commerce lawsuit in December 2025, while the lawsuit by the Attorneys General remains pending.
The Administration finalised the rule in late December 2025 following the favourable court ruling, so the reforms are expected to take effect in time for the next visa lottery in March.
Student visas
In June 2024, as a candidate, Trump surprised many by saying, ‘You should get automatically, as part of your diploma, a green card to be able to stay in this country’.
Upon taking office, he has yet to implement this policy proposal. In fact, he has pursued policies that make it more difficult for international students to enter the country and has created additional administrative obstacles for those admitted.
In early April 2025 the government abruptly revoked the visas for 1,800 international students on F-1 student visas and J-1 exchange visitor visas, with little justification. Later that month, the government reversed the previous visa revocations.
One month later, all US embassies and consulates suspended interview scheduling for international students. When the pause was lifted in June 2025, it expanded social media screening requirements. Consular officers were instructed to search for potentially derogatory information, including political activism, alleged support for terrorism and perceived hostility towards the US.
In August 2025 the government published a proposed rule that would limit the time international students under the F-1 and J-1 visa programmes may remain in the US to four years. If students or scholars wish to extend their degree programmes beyond four years, they must apply for visa extensions. Compared with the current, more flexible process, this would be more burdensome and leave students in a legal limbo while they wait for their renewals.
New international student enrolment dropped by 17% in the Autumn 2025 semester, the largest single-year drop in over a decade (excluding the 2020 COVID-19 pandemic). US institutions cited several factors contributing to the decline, including visa issues, travel restrictions and an unwelcoming environment for international students.
US colleges and universities enrolled 1.2 million international students in 2025, or around 6% of total US enrolment. Indian and Chinese students accounted for more than half of all international students in 2025 (India 31% and China 23%).
Agricultural worker visas
In October 2025, the Administration introduced an interim final rule to streamline the filing process for H-2A temporary agricultural petitions. It established a ‘concierge’ team to provide a single point of contact for farmers navigating the visa petition process and waived in-person interviews for H-2A visa renewals. It also proposed significant reforms to reduce employers’ labour costs. The Administration expects these changes to reduce costs by more than US$2 billion annually by lowering wages for foreign farmworkers by more than 30%.
The Administration anticipates that its crackdown on the undocumented immigrant population in the US and stricter border enforcement measures, coupled with limited interest from US workers to perform farmwork, will lead to an agricultural labour shortage. From 2020 to 2022, 42% of crop farmworkers were undocumented.
The Administration seeks to help farmers hire foreign workers through the H-2A temporary agricultural worker programme while reducing their costs. The H-2A reforms are among the few instances in which the Trump Administration has not sought to reduce access to legal immigration. Its efforts also underscore how the Administration is taking steps to mitigate the expected impacts of its aggressive immigration enforcement posture. This is likely because farmers are important to Trump’s political base and because he seeks to avoid risks to the US food supply that could ultimately increase inflation.
A coalition of farmworkers and unions filed a lawsuit in November 2025 to block the rule from being implemented, arguing that it would depress wages for US and immigrant guest workers.
Permanent visas
‘Gold card’ investor visa
While some countries, such as Spain, are tightening or winding down ‘golden visa’ investor programmes aimed at attracting immigrants who invest in real estate, government funds or local businesses, Trump introduced his own initiative in 2025 to attract ultra-high-net-worth immigrants: the Gold Card Program.
Created in September 2025 via Executive Order, the Gold Card Program replaces or supplements the existing investor visa (EB-5) programme, though it requires substantially higher capital investment in exchange for permanent residence. It allows expedited US residency for US$1 million for individuals or US$2 million for corporations, plus an additional US$15,000 in processing fees.
As the programme was created by executive action, it operates outside the traditional statutory framework, which means it could be easily eliminated or revised by a future Administration. Moreover, only the US Congress has the legal authority to create new immigration visas, rendering the programme legally questionable.
Trump has framed the programme as a revenue-generating tool, though it would skew immigration towards wealth rather than skills or humanitarian need. The American Association of University Professors and a coalition of immigrants filed a lawsuit in early February to block the programme’s implementation, arguing that it prioritised ‘wealth over intellect or ability’ and bypassed Congress.
The DV programme
The DV programme offers up to 50,000 green cards to nationals of countries with low rates of immigration to the US. Since 1990 the programme has served as a key instrument to diversify US immigration flows. For instance, African nationals accounted for 42% of the green cards issued in FY 2024.
Trump tried to dismantle the DV programme in 2017, but a federal court blocked his action.
In December 2025 he directed the programme’s suspension after a Portuguese national, who entered the country via the DV programme, was charged with killing two university students and a professor. The Administration said it will conduct a comprehensive review of the programme’s screening and vetting procedures before resuming the issue of green cards.
Humanitarian programmes
Refugee admissions
Since establishing the US refugee resettlement programme in 1975, the government has admitted, on average, nearly 74,000 refugees per year. However, during the four years of the first Trump Administration, the government admitted an average of fewer than 30,000 annually, including fewer than 12,000 in Trump’s final year.
One of Trump’s earliest actions in his second term was the suspension of the US Refugee Admissions Program. Refugee resettlement was halted for nearly all nationalities. As a result, tens of thousands of refugees who had already been approved for travel were left stranded. The only exception was for Afrikaners (and other minorities) from South Africa. The Administration resettled 342 to the US from February through September 2025.
Moreover, for FY 2026 the Administration set the refugee admissions ceiling at 7,500, the lowest since the enactment of the Refugee Act of 1980. It plans to focus on Afrikaners from South Africa and ‘other victims of illegal or unjust discrimination in their respective homelands’. During the first three months of FY 2026 only 720 refugees have been resettled. Of this total, 99% are from South Africa.
In November 2025 the Administration also ordered a review of approximately 230,000 refugees admitted under the Biden Administration and a halt to green card processing for refugees who entered during this period. The process would include a comprehensive review and re-interview. If the government finds that the individual did not meet the US refugee standard at the time of admission, it will revoke his refugee status. Although refugees undergo lengthy and rigorous vetting before admission to the US, the Trump Administration claims that the previous Administration prioritised expediency, quantity and admissions over quality interviews and detailed screening and vetting.
Temporary Protected Status (TPS)
TPS allows nationals of designated countries to remain in and work in the US due to a conflict or disaster in their home country. The Administration has also moved to terminate or allow to expire 14 of the 17 TPS country designations, arguing that the ‘temporary’ nature of the relief had become a de facto form of permanent residency. The only remaining countries with TPS designations are El Salvador, Ukraine and Sudan, with expiration dates later in the year.
This policy change places over one million immigrants, including hundreds of thousands of long-term US residents, at risk of deportation. Litigation has slowed down the implementation of terminations in some cases, whereas in others the Administration has proceeded with them.
Figure 7. TPS-designated countries terminated by President Trump from January 2025 to January 2026
| Designated country | Termination, effective date | Individuals eligible for TPS |
|---|---|---|
| Afghanistan | July 22nd 2025 | 11,700 |
| Burma | January 26th 2026 | 3,670 |
| Cameroon | August 5th 2025 | 5,200 |
| Ethiopia | February 13th 2026 | 5,001 |
| Haiti | February 4th 2026 | 348,187 |
| Honduras | September 8th 2025 | 72,000 |
| Nepal | August 20th 2025 | 12,700 |
| Nicaragua | September 8th 0225 | 4,000 |
| Somalia | March 17th 2026 | 705 |
| Syria | September 30th 2025 | 6,132 |
| South Sudan | January 6th 2026 | 210 |
| Venezuela (2021) | November 7th 2025 | 252,825 |
| Venezuela (2023) | May 19th 2025 | 352,190 |
| Yemen | March 3rd 2026 | 1,380 |
| Total | 1,075,900 |
Temporary legal pathways
Trump has revoked the legal status of hundreds of thousands of immigrants who entered the US via alternative temporary legal pathways created by the Biden Administration (2021-25) to extend protections for particularly vulnerable populations, encourage legal migration and reduce irregular migration across the US-Mexico border. Trump argues that the previous Administration exceeded its executive authority and that the policies encouraged irregular migration.
An estimated 1.3 million immigrants were paroled into the US under Biden through various initiatives. Pursuant to existing law, the US may admit certain immigrants if they further a humanitarian cause or public benefit; however, the law does not give beneficiaries permanent legal status. Instead, those paroled are generally permitted to live and work in the US temporarily without fear of deportation.
After the withdrawal of US troops from Afghanistan in August 2021, the Biden Administration allowed Afghan evacuees to enter the US via humanitarian parole. Approximately 76,000 Afghans were admitted. The Administration then created the Uniting for Ukraine programme after Russia’s invasion in February 2022, admitting approximately 240,000 Ukrainians.
Following the success of these two initiatives, Biden established the Cuba, Haiti, Nicaragua and Venezuela (CHNV) humanitarian parole programme to encourage nationals from these four countries to pursue safe, legal and orderly migration and decrease irregular migrant arrivals at the US-Mexico border. Approximately 532,000 individuals entered the country through these programmes before Trump terminated them.
In April 2025 the government began notifying immigrants who had been paroled into the country after being processed at the border that their parole status had been terminated and that they should leave the country immediately. Nearly 937,000 asylum seekers and other immigrants scheduled appointments at official US border crossings from January 2023 to December 2024 via a US government app called CBP One. The Biden Administration granted parole to individuals who attended their appointments and passed security screenings.
Finally, Trump also ended the Family Reunification Parole (FRP) programme, which was designed to reunite certain US residents with family members from Colombia, Ecuador, El Salvador, Guatemala, Honduras, Haiti and Cuba. As of December 2024 nearly 59,000 nationals from these seven countries had received protection. In this case, the Trump Administration maintained that since the purpose of the FRP programme was family reunification, it did not meet the ‘urgent humanitarian’ standard required for parole.
Figure 8. Estimated number of individuals with Temporary Legal Status terminated by Trump in 2025
| Process | Estimated number of beneficiaries |
|---|---|
| Temporary Protected Status | 1,095,100 |
| Processed via CBP One App | 936,500 |
| CHNV Parole | 531,700 |
| United Ukraine | 240,000 |
| Operation Allies Welcome | 75,000 |
| FRP Parole | 58,800 |
Impact
Trump’s first year back in office has delivered significant changes to the US legal immigration system. Although there have been no legal changes to date, Trump has used his executive authority to curtail legal immigration and determine what kinds of immigrants should be admitted.
He has discussed his desire to implement a permanent pause on immigration from so-called third-world countries and his preference for admitting immigrants from countries like Denmark, Norway and Sweden. Should Trump get his way, this would mean fewer and less diverse legal immigrants.
Academic research also anticipates a significant impact from Trump’s immigration policies on the US and its economy.
Trump’s policies will reduce legal immigration to the US by 33% to 50%, or by 1.5 million to 2.4 million legal immigrants, over his four-year term, according to a new study from the National Foundation for American Policy (NFAP). The estimated reductions are based on policies Trump has enacted to date, such as visa suspensions and bans, lower refugee admission levels and the implementation of public charge policies. Still, it does not account for the 2.7 million immigrants in the US with a temporary lawful status that has been terminated, such as individuals with TPS or those admitted under humanitarian parole.
Economic growth relies on labour force growth and productivity growth. Trump’s immigration policies would reduce the projected number of workers in the US by 6.8 million by 2028 and by 15.7 million by 2035. In turn, this would lower the annual rate of economic growth by almost one-third, according to another analysis by NFAP.
Trump’s immigration policies –aiming to combat irregular immigration and reduce legal immigration– likely resulted in net zero or negative immigration in 2025, according to a Brookings Institution study. It also concludes that reduced immigration will dampen labour force growth and consumer spending, contributing to a 0.2% drop in GDP in 2025 and a 0.1% drop in 2026.
Additional research published by the Center for Global Development shows that an average recent immigrant without a high school degree has a lifetime positive net fiscal balance of US$128,000. And when including expected children and grandchildren, the lifetime positive net budgetary effect is US$326,000. Immigrants with higher levels of education would have a more positive lifetime net fiscal balance.
Reduced legal immigration, particularly of high-skilled workers, is expected to hit US competitiveness and innovation. The US$100,000 fee on H-1B visas will make it very difficult for start-ups and small businesses to sponsor visas. It may also mean that large technology companies that rely on H-1B visas will locate these workers overseas rather than in the US.
Trump’s legal immigration policies are also expected to have international ripple effects. Over the next four years, the country’s attractiveness to international students, researchers and entrepreneurs will decline. At the same time, other countries, such as Australia, Canada and Germany, are actively recruiting high-skilled workers deterred by US restrictions, particularly in technology and artificial intelligence. In January, the German Chancellor Friedrich Merz noted that the number of highly qualified Indian professionals in Germany is growing rapidly.
The policies will also harm international protection. The large reduction in US refugee resettlement will leave thousands of individuals who were already vetted in dangerous, uncertain and precarious situations. It will also force refugees into long-term displacement and undermine family reunification.
The policies will also contribute to global humanitarian challenges. For example, reduced access to legal pathways, combined with US cuts to foreign aid and the aggressive deportation campaign, could exacerbate the humanitarian landscape in Central America, a region with high levels of emigration to the US and significant development challenges.
Lastly, the US retreat from its longstanding tradition of humanitarian leadership is likely to create a vacuum that no other country could fill in the near term.
Figure 9. Estimated legal immigration reductions during Trump’s second term, 2025-29
| Category | Legal immigration reduction from 2025 to 2029 |
|---|---|
| Immediate relatives of US citizens | 941,625 to 1,654,770 |
| Refugees | 470,000 |
| Diversity visas | 55,076 to 165,228 |
| Other categories | 80,000 |
| Total legal immigration reduction | 1,546,701 to 2,369,998 (33% to 50% reduction from FY 2023 legal immigration level) |
Congressional response and polling
Congressional response
Trump has faced limited public opposition from Congressional Republicans to his broad efforts to reduce legal immigration during his second term, with only a few instances of dissent.
In January 2025 one Republican in the House of Representatives called on Trump to protect Cubans, Haitians, Nicaraguans and Venezuelans who had been admitted in 2023 and 2024 under Biden’s humanitarian parole programme. In April and May 2025 this lawmaker introduced two bipartisan bills: one to designate TPS for certain Venezuelans in the country and one to allow certain Venezuelans in the US to obtain lawful permanent residence (green cards). She expressed concern with Trump’s decision to terminate the TPS designations for Venezuelans and urged him to refrain from deporting Venezuelans who had lost their TPS protections until conditions in the country improved.
Three Republicans in the House of Representatives joined Democrats in October 2025 to urge Trump to fix the high-skilled immigration system rather than impose a US$100,000 fee on H-1B visas. In a joint letter they called on the government to reverse the surcharge and instead pursue other reforms to address issues such as outsourcing, wage suppression and enforcement.
In December 2025 three Republican Senators expressed concern over Trump’s suspension of visa processing and restrictions targeting Afghan nationals. This policy reduced legal immigration pathways for individuals who had served with the US military in Afghanistan. The lawmakers advocated enhanced vetting rather than a blanket suspension of legal immigration processing.
Democratic members of Congress, on the other hand, have nearly uniformly opposed Trump’s legal immigration reforms. However, since Trump has pursued these changes through executive actions rather than through legislation, there have been limited opportunities to slow down or block them. Moreover, because Democrats are in the minority in both the House of Representatives and the Senate, and Republicans have largely backed Trump’s reforms, they have been unable to thwart them.
Polling
Trump entered office in 2025 with solid backing for his immigration agenda to secure the US-Mexico border and implement an aggressive deportation campaign. However, one year into his second term, polling indicates that the tide is turning.
US citizens are divided as to whether the country should increase or decrease the number of legal immigrants admitted, but fewer now support reducing legal immigration, according to a YouGov polling conducted from 30 January to 2 February. Compared with polling in January 2025, 10 percentage points fewer US citizens now favour reducing legal immigration. They are also more likely to say that immigration makes the country better off, a 15% jump since January 2025. Moreover, 50% believe Trump’s approach to immigration is too harsh, while 36% say it is about right and 8% think it is too soft.
Separate polling conducted by Ipsos from 23 January to 25 January reveals that support for Trump’s handling of immigration is declining. More US citizens now disapprove (53%) than approve (39%). By comparison, in May 2025, 47% approved and 45% disapproved, a 6% decline over the past eight months.
Conclusions
Trump’s second-term immigration agenda is a sweeping attempt to reduce legal immigration and reshape the composition of who is admitted to the country. However, rather than pursuing legislative reforms, he has relied heavily on executive authority to narrow access to the US immigration system. This means that a future Administration could easily reverse these changes, just as he annulled much of Biden’s immigration policy reforms.
Domestically, these policies are expected to carry significant consequences. Reduced immigration is weighing on labour-force growth, innovation and higher education, while introducing uncertainty for employers, universities and immigrant communities. The suspension of refugee admissions, the pause in the DV programme and the termination of many temporary legal pathway programmes reflect a broader shift away from more diverse and humanitarian immigration flows, thereby reshaping who can enter and remain in the US. Moreover, the strategy of terminating the legal pathway programmes created by the former Administration and ramping up efforts to revoke visas eliminates the legal status for a large group of immigrants, rendering them undocumented and subject to deportation.
Internationally, the repercussions are already visible. As the US becomes a less predictable and desirable destination for students, researchers and skilled professionals, other countries –including some EU member states– are moving to capture displaced talent. At the same time, the contraction of refugee admissions and legal pathways will weaken global protection amid a rising displacement and instability, and damage US credibility as the global humanitarian leader.
