Globalization is not dead, but it has changed: it is harsher, more fragmented, and less homogeneous. In addition to the rivalry between the United States and China, the European Union is attempting to assert itself, though it faces challenges in converting its significant presence into actual power. The tougher aspects of globalization are making a comeback, through the prominence of military dimensions and industrial policies. Asia’s rise continues to consolidate, and Spain increases its presence while maintaining its 13th position.
These are the main conclusions of the 2025 edition of the Elcano Global Presence Index, released by the Elcano Royal Institute to measure and compare the evolution of the globalization process since 1990. The index measures three main dimensions—economic, military, and soft—with results for 150 countries. These conclusions point to a turning point in the globalization process, following the clear intention of the U.S. to reshape the existing world order.
By country, the United States retains the top position and increases its global presence, while China, in second place, experiences a decline for the first time in the history of the Index. Spain, ranked 13th, registers in 2024 the second-highest growth in global presence —in percentage points— among the top 13 countries, only behind the US. Moreover, Spain leads the EU in global presence growth, consolidating its position as the Member State with the largest gains among the Twenty-Seven over the past year.
Manuel Gracia, Senior Fellow and coordinator of the Elcano Global Presence Index project at the Elcano Royal Institute, explains:
“In the new world order, marked by the rise of nationalism and unilateralism, external dependence is increasingly seen as a vulnerability. Trade protectionism is once again considered a foreign policy tool, accompanied by national industrial strategies and autonomy-seeking policies. Moreover, the return of war to Europe has remilitarised international relations, diminishing the appeal of soft power instruments for external projection.”
Gracia further explains that variations in countries’ global presence in recent years are mainly explained by the economic dimension:
“The EU is reducing its global economic presence, while slowly regaining traction in its soft projection. The US slows its growth due to weaker goods exports but continues to expand in services and foreign investment. Meanwhile, China’s global presence declines due to a drop in its manufacturing and services exports, although it continues to strengthen its military and soft power dimensions.”
Read the full report on the website.
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