Scenario analysis in Europe’s southern neighbourhood: the modern crystal ball for policy makers

Natalia Martín. ARI 133/2020 - 25/11/2020.

This paper analyses the increasing adoption of scenario analysis techniques in policy circles, putting a special emphasis on the advantages of using forecasting on areas like Europe’s southern neighbourhood, where the transnational nature of geopolitical and socio-economic challenges would greatly benefit from such an approach.

A logic of its own: the external presence in the Sahel

Nina Wilén. ARI 132/2020 - 24/11/2020.

The current instability in the Sahel has attracted a heavy international security presence to the region which has taken on a logic of its own. Yet there is a need to reflect on how the international presence and local power dynamics mutually shape each other to gain a more comprehensive understanding of why current efforts to stabilise the situation have fallen short.

From Venus to Janus: the EU and international disorder

Miguel Otero-Iglesias. Expert Comment 40/2020 (English version) - 23/11/2020.

The EU is thus facing an historic moment. The challenges of international political economy that loom over us are enormous.

Is the UNSC an obstacle to a geopolitical EU? Principled pragmatism and the legitimacy of CSDP deployments

Vasileios Theodosopoulos. ARI 124/2020 - 4/11/2020.

The legitimation of military Common Security and Defence Policy (CSDP) deployments will be an important aspect of the EU’s endeavour to evolve into a principled geopolitical power.

Fortress Europe: an authoritarian-populist construct?

Aitor Pérez. ARI 122/2020 - 30/10/2020.

According to civil society organisations, EU policies concerning vulnerable people in third countries –including migration, asylum and foreign aid– are on a regressive trend. This coincides with the rise of authoritarian-populist parties in European countries.

Refugees welcome? Cross-European public opinion on asylum seekers following the 2015 crisis

Sandra Bermúdez. ARI 119/2020 - 27/10/2020.

This study examines the preferences regarding solidarity and asylum seekers following the 2015 refugee crisis, by comparing different European countries, and how opinions on the issue have evolved over time.

EUCO diaries: will the tension in the Eastern Mediterranean lead to a watershed?

Ilke Toygür. Expert Comment 33/2020 - 9/10/2020.

The recent tensions in the Eastern Mediterranean have once again shown the need to have a functioning dialogue channel with Turkey.

Turkey and Spain: bilateral relations and the road ahead for Customs Union modernisation

Ilke Toygür. ARI 113/2020 - 29/9/2020.

This paper analyses the bilateral relationship between Turkey and Spain, with a specific focus on the current state of economic relations. It aims to examine the Spanish position on the modernisation of the Customs Union (CU) agreement with Turkey.

Against 'the other'? Expanding or reducing ‘the other’ in populist mobilisation: the case of refugees

Margarita Gómez-Reino, Hans-Jörg Trenz & Beatriz Acha. ARI 112/2020 - 28/9/2020.

Taking 2015 as a critical juncture, this paper analyses the different trajectories of the politicisation of refugees in the European Union.

G20: political snapshots of power dynamics

Beatriz Pérez de la Fuente. ARI 109/2020 - 22/9/2020.

How has the G20 evolved politically since the 2017 German Presidency?