After eight months with Trump in office, US foreign policy is characterised not by disruption but by continuity. The Trump revolution in foreign policy has not happened.
The US threat of budget cuts or other means of reducing the importance of the United Nations highlights the need for a more independent and balanced organisation through the reinvigorated role of other powers, such as the EU.
The message from world leaders is clear: there is no intention of abandoning an agreement that has taken over five years to negotiate. The world will move forwards towards a low-carbon future despite Trump’s efforts to hold it back.
The first 100 days of the Trump Presidency have come to an end.
The widely anticipated clash between Germany and the Trump Administration has not happened. Instead, Berlin and Washington DC seem to be on the way to pragmatic cooperation, even when there is still significant disagreement.
Trump’s ‘supply-side’ energy policy proposals imply only minor impact on the trajectory of renewable energy and the low carbon transition; however, his trade and foreign policies could significantly magnify such impact.
A deal between Putin and Trump would not change the underlying reality. It is not Western influence which undermines the Kremlin’s influence in the former Soviet space but its failure to deliver the kind of governance people want.
The future of the global trade regime depends on educating Trump and his supporters that free trade is an opportunity, not a risk, and that the WTO is still the best place to secure the norms of an open liberal trade system.
To alienate the next US President is unwise, as it will harm European interests. Instead, Europe must try to influence Trump’s policies and his decision-making by engaging with him. And it must start to work on a plan B.
Document of interest: US Department of Defense - Plan for Closing the Guantanamo Bay Detention Facility
The plan of the Obama Administration for closing the Guantanamo Bay Detention Facility has been sent to the US Congress by the Department of Defense.
Plan de la Administración Obama para cerrar la prisión de Guantánamo enviado por el Departamento de Defensa al Congreso de EEUU.