Covid-19 and Europe-China Relations. A country level analysis

Edited by: John Seaman, with analysis and peer reviews by Ugo Armanini, Angelos Bentis, Una Bērziņa-Čerenkova, Ties Dams, Lucas Erlbacher, Mario Esteban, Rudolf Fürst, Hans Jørgen Gåsemyr, Francesca Ghiretti, Markus Herrmann, Björn Jerdén, Yang Jiang, Marc Julienne, Lorenzo Mariani, Tamas Matura, Iulia Monica Oehler-Șincai, Lucrezia Poggetti, Barbara Pongratz, Patrick Renz, Carlos Rodrigues, Tim Rühlig, Michael Settelen, Monika Sie Dhian Ho, Matej Šimalčík, Tim Summers, Justyna Szczudlik, Velina Tchakarova, Plamen Tonchev, Richard Q. Turcsányi, and Frans-Paul van der Putten. European Think-tank Network on China (ETNC), Special Report, April 2020.

The COVID-19 crisis has hit at a time when debates over the need to adopt more coherent strategies towards China have been emerging across Europe. In many ways, the current crisis has become a catalyst for a number of trends that have been shaping Europe-China relations in recent years, while in other ways it has turned the tables. It has simultaneously brought Europe and China into closer cooperation, pushed them further apart, and seemingly underlined the fractures that exist within Europe on how to approach an increasingly influential China.

This report seeks to identify and underline key developments in bilateral relations between China and a wide range of European countries, and to highlight debates that these relations inspire across Europe within the context of the evolving health crisis. It is a collection of independent analyses from 19 countries meant to compare notes on country-level experiences and build on the annual reports of the European Think-tank Network on China (ETNC).

The goal here is not to be exhaustive or definitive – indeed, the crisis is still unfolding across much of Europe and the globe, and the potential for change is still great. Rather, this report offers a marker in time and a window into some of the issues that will become increasingly important in Europe-China relationships in light of COVID-19.

See also:

• Europe in the Face of US-China Rivalry. ETNC, January 2020.
• Political values in Europe-China relations. ETNC, December 2018.
• Chinese Investment in Europe: A Country-Level Approach. ETNC, December 2017.

Europe in the Face of US-China Rivalry

Edited by: Mario Esteban and Miguel Otero-Iglesias along with Una Aleksandra Bērziņa-Čerenkova, Alice Ekman, Lucrezia Poggetti, Björn Jerdén, John Seaman, Tim Summers and Justyna Szczudlik. European Think-tank Network on China (ETNC), January 2020.

The fifth edition of the ETNC report shows how US unilateralism and Chinese assertiveness have triggered a rethinking of the EU’s strategic landscape. Despite the differences between EU member states, its key finding is that all the countries analysed are in a similar position. They all consider the US their most important ally and they all depend on its military protection, but they also want to do as much business with China as possible.

The report contains 18 country chapters, all from EU member states, and a further one focused on the EU’s perspective on Europe’s difficult balancing act between the US, a long-term strategic and economic partner, and China, the EU’s second most important market and, probably, the next economic superpower. States like Portugal, Greece and Italy, due to their history and geographical location, are keen to present themselves as a bridge between the US and China. Some, like Finland and Hungary, are trying to play the two powers against each in other to extract possible concessions. Others, like Latvia, Romania and Slovakia, prefer to avoid trouble by maintaining a low profile, in wait-and-see mode. Finally, there is a group led by France, Germany and Spain that is working with Brussels to enhance the EU’s strategic autonomy and economic sovereignty.

This year’s edition has been led by the Elcano Royal Institute, with editorial review provided from Ifri, MERICS, the Polish Institute of International Affairs (PISM), The Royal Institute of International Affairs (Chatham House), The Swedish Institute of International Affairs (UI) and the Latvian Institute of International Affairs (LIIA), with active participation from all ETNC members.

See also:

• Political values in Europe-China relations. ETNC, December 2018.
• Chinese Investment in Europe: A Country-Level Approach. ETNC, December 2017.

Political values in Europe-China relations

Edited by Tim Nicholas Rühlig, Björn Jerdén, Frans-Paul van der Putten, John Seaman, Miguel Otero-Iglesias and Alice Ekman. European Think-tank Network on China (ETNC), December 2018.

Questions of democracy, human rights and the rule of law have long been a source of tension in Europe’s relations with China, both in exchanges with China and among Europeans themselves. The European Union was in part built on a foundation of common political values, but member states are often at odds over the extent to which these values should constitute a central element of their respective relations with China. Under the leadership of Xi Jinping, China has become increasingly critical of Western political values and sought to position itself as a role model for other countries. In this context, the question of how to treat political values in relations with China only grows more relevant for Europe, as does the question of how China will seek to promote its own understanding of political values in Europe.

Through an analysis of 16 EU member states, Norway and the EU as an institution, this report sets out to examine how political values enter into Europe- China relations. It looks at how European actors treat political values in relations with China, and how China, directly or indirectly, shapes the debate on political values in Europe.

Elcano Global Presence Report 2018

Coordinators: Iliana Olivié (Senior Analyst) and Manuel Gracia (Research Assistant) at the Elcano Global Presence Index Project.
2018

The 2018 edition of the Elcano Global Presence Index ranks 110 countries according to the extent to which they are currently ‘out there’, participating in and shaping the process of globalization. In addition to the incorporation of 10 new countries (Cameroon, Paraguay, El Salvador, Uganda, Trinidad and Tobago, Honduras, Zambia, Zimbabwe, Botswana and Senegal), this year’s edition highlights the following results:

• A stable global presence ranking. The countries in the top positions of the global presence ranking maintain or strengthen their positions. The United States tops the list with a global presence index value of 2,494 points. It still trebles that of China, which is second, with 841 points.
• Globalisation or regionalisation? 88.4% of globalisation occurs within and/or between North America, Europe and Asia and the Pacific. This figure has dropped from 90.9% in 1990, indicating a strong but weakening regionalisation in global flows.
• Africa lags behind in global presence. Compared with the other regions in this Index, Africa shows a low volume of external projection. With a global presence of 408 points in index value in 2017, it ranks 6th out of six regions.

Also available: Informe Elcano de Presencia Global 2018 (Spanish version).

Chinese Investment in Europe: A Country-Level Approach

Edited by John Seaman, Mikko Huotari, Miguel Otero-Iglesias. European Think-tank Network on China (ETNC), diciembre de 2017.

Chinese investments in Europe have surged in recent years, and have become a critical feature of Europe-China relations. Foreign direct investment (FDI) in the European Union traced back to mainland China hit a record EUR 35 billion in 2016, compared with only EUR 1.6 billion in 2010, according to data gathered by the Rhodium Group. In a historic shift, the flow of Chinese direct investment into Europe has surpassed the declining flows of annual European direct investments into China. As China continues to grow, develop, and integrate into the global economy, its overseas investments expand in quantity and quality, reflecting both the growing sophistication of the Chinese economy and broader Chinese commercial and policy goals. Going beyond FDI, Chinese investment is creating new realities for Europe-China relations.

This report by the European Think-tank Network on China (ETNC) brings together original analysis from 19 European countries to better understand these trends and their consequences for policy making and Europe-China relations, including at the bilateral, subregional and EU levels. This is not just a story about FDI strictly defined, but about the (geo)political implications that emanate from deeper economic interaction with China. Ultimately, Europe is far from speaking with a single voice on these matters, and identifying where the divergences and convergences lie, will be crucial in formulating solid and complementary policy positions at the EU and national level moving forward.

Elcano Global Presence Report 2017

Iliana Olivié (Senior Analyst) and Manuel Gracia (Research Assistant) at the Elcano Global Presence Index Project.

2017

The 2017 edition of the Elcano Global Presence Index ranks 100 countries according to the extent to which they are currently ‘out there’, participating in and shaping the process of globalization. In addition to the incorporation of 10 new countries (Bolivia, Côte d’Ivoire, Democratic Republic of Congo, Ghana, Jordan, Lebanon, Panama, Serbia, Tunisia, and Yemen), this year’s edition highlights the following results:

• China hangs on to the 2nd position of our ranking. There are no relevant changes in the top 20 positions with respect to last year’s Index.
• Decaying countries and emerging economies: blurred categories. Unlike in previous editions, traditional powers and emerging countries do not behave as two distinct and homogeneous blocs.
• The beginning of de-globalisation? The foreign policy space has decreased for the first time in our series. This goes hand in hand with the re-concentration of total global presence in the top global players.

Also available: Informe Elcano de Presencia Global 2017 (Spanish version).

Europe and China's New Silk Roads

Edited by Frans-Paul van der Putten, John Seaman, Mikko Huotari, Alice Ekman, Miguel Otero-Iglesias. European Think-tank Network on China (ETNC), January 2017.

This report provides a comparative perspective of China’s ‘One Belt, One Road’ initiative (OBOR), as seen from the various European Union member states. The Chinese leadership officially launched this framework in autumn 2013, presenting it immediately as a key national concept and foreign policy priority for the years to come. This report covers the role of OBOR in the relations between China and 14 EU member states, including all larger countries and many middle-sized ones, as seen from the European side. It does so by systematically treating three basic questions across a selection of EU member states and at the EU level itself:

• Which OBOR-related activities exist currently in the host countries and at the EU level?
• What is China’s approach towards individual EU member states with regard to OBOR?
• What are the perceptions and reactions in individual European countries and at the EU level?

This is the second report by the European Think-tank Network on China (ETNC). The ETNC members represent major European think tanks and are specialized in analysing China–Europe relations. It is devoted to the study of Chinese foreign policy and European Union (EU)-China relations and facilitates regular exchanges among participating researchers. The Elcano Royal Institute is a member institute of ETNC.

See also the first report: Mapping Europe-China Relations: A Bottom-Up Approach.

Elcano Global Presence Report 2016

Iliana Olivié (Senior Analyst) and Manuel Gracia (Research Assistant) at the Elcano Global Presence Index Project.

2016

The 2016 edition of the Elcano Global Presence Index ranks 90 countries according to the extent to which they are currently ‘out there’, participating in and shaping the process of globalization. In addition to the incorporation of 10 new countries (Costa Rica, Dominican Republic, Ethiopia, Guatemala, Kenya, Myanmar, Tanzania, Turkmenistan, Uruguay and Uzbekistan) and adjusting the weighting given to each variable (according to the international experts’ criteria resulting from a survey conducted in 2015), this year’s edition highlights the following results:

• China jumps to second position while Europe stagnates.
• The collapse of commodities prices affects the emerging economies.
• The added value of global presence of all 90 countries for which this index is calculated barely grows in 2015, which could indicate the stagnation of the globalization process.
• After years of increasingly disperse global presence, we are now seeing a re-concentration of external projection.
• The results of a survey conducted in 2015 shows the extent to which foreign policy specialists have changed their worldview. The world now looks ‘harder’ than it did in 2012.

Also available: Informe Elcano de Presencia Global 2016 (Spanish version).

A New Course for Spain: Beyond the Crisis

William Chislett. Elcano Royal Institute, 2016.

The global financial crisis of 2007-08 took a heavy toll on Spain’s vulnerable economy. The spectacular collapse of the real estate and construction sectors caused the unemployment rate to skyrocket to 27% in 2013. This shook the country’s economic, political, institutional and social foundations. There is now a glimmer of light in what has been a very long tunnel, thanks to some of the measures taken, the innate strengths of the country, particularly the extended family-based network, and the common sense of its people.

This book seeks to explain how Spain moved from crisis to incipient recovery by looking at the reforms and the main sectors –macroeconomic fundamentals, exports, banking, investment abroad, foreign direct investment in Spain, etc–. It also looks at the challenges ahead including the new political situation with the erosion of the two-party system –the Popular Party and the Socialists– that has alternated in power since 1982 and the emergence of two new parties, the anti-austerity Podemos and centrist Ciudadanos.

Mapping Europe-China Relations: A Bottom-Up Approach

Edited by Mikko Huotari, Miguel Otero-Iglesias, John Seaman and Alice Ekman. European Think-tank Network on China (ETNC), October 2015.

As China’s rise continues to shape and shake the course of international affairs, and Europe enters a new chapter in its collective history, Europe-China relations are becoming more relevant, but also much more complex. Understanding these complexities requires a precise examination of the various state-level bilateral relationships and interests at play between China and the EU countries.

This report is the first in an on-going effort of dissecting and re-assembling Europe-China relations from an EU member state perspective. As the European Think-tank Network on China (ETNC) develops, recommendations will emerge on how these member states and the EU as a whole can better coordinate their various approaches to China.