The analyses are short pieces -of around 3,000 words- on aspects of current international affairs considered to be of relevance to Spain, its foreign policy or its security. In broad terms ARIs are intended to have a predictive bearing on events.

Catalonia’s independence bid: how did we get here? What is the European dimension? What next?

Elcano Royal Institute. 17 October 2017.

This special dossier aims to provide an overview and background information on Catalonia’s independence bid, the attempts to ‘internationalise the conflict’ and its European dimension, and the possible future scenarios.

Transforming the United Nations: countering the US budget-cut threats

Jessica Almqvist. ARI 71/2017 - 18/9/2017.

The US threat of budget cuts or other means of reducing the importance of the United Nations highlights the need for a more independent and balanced organisation through the reinvigorated role of other powers, such as the EU.

The conundrum of Spain’s recovering economy and stubbornly high unemployment

William Chislett. ARI 70/2017 - 15/9/2017.

The economy has recovered from a deep crisis and is growing at more than 3% for the third year running, but the unemployment rate remains stubbornly high at 17.2%, though well down on the peak of 27.1% in 2013.

The shrinking Euro-Mediterranean policy space

Gonzalo Escribano. ARI 69/2017 (English version) - 14/9/2017.

The transformations that have taken place in the EU’s Mediterranean Neighbourhood have reduced the options for a shrinking Euro-Mediterranean policy.

Kant vs Hobbes: elements of Germany’s emerging grand strategy

Ulrich Speck. ARI 67/2017 - 11/9/2017.

Putting its weight behind the status quo is at the core of Germany’s emerging grand strategy. This involves keeping the EU up, the US in, and Russia and China out.