Analyses of the Elcano Royal Institute (ARI)

The analyses are short pieces -of around 3,000 words- on aspects of current international affairs considered to be of relevance to Spain, its foreign policy or its security. In broad terms ARIs are intended to have a predictive bearing on events.


How can a military conflict in the Korean Peninsula be avoided?

Félix Arteaga and Mario Esteban. ARI 52/2017 (English version) - 20/6/2017.

This analysis warns of the growing risk of armed conflict in the Korean Peninsula and sets out some options for avoiding it and proceeding towards an agreement that would enable the precarious stability of the region to be underpinned.


The joint sovereignty proposal for Gibraltar: benefits for all

Martín Ortega Carcelén. ARI 50/2017 (English version) - 13/6/2017.

In the wake of the Brexit referendum, Spain submitted a negotiation proposal to the UK on Gibraltar that put joint sovereignty, dual nationality for the Gibraltarians and respect for their autonomy on the table.


The Trump effect on EU-China relations

Mario Esteban. ARI 49/2017 (English version) - 7/6/2017.

Trump's term in office throws up opportunities for the strengthening of relations between the EU and China, especially if Europe decides to intensify its Common Security and Defence Policy and Beijing decides to take its process of economic reforms further.


Political and geopolitical games in the Cypriot labyrinth: a Greek-Cypriot perspective

Costas Melakopides. ARI 46/2017 - 26/5/2017.

Cyprus’s ‘bi-communal negotiations’ have collapsed once again but in a manner that reveals diplomatic cacophony, deceptive international ‘diplomatic’ practices and serious mistakes by both the Greek and Turkish Cypriots themselves.


Energy and the climate in 2017: limited volatility, climate implementation and political uncertainty

Gonzalo Escribano and Lara Lázaro. ARI 42/2017 (English version) - 23/5/2017.

The main factors likely to shape the energy and climate fields in 2017 are: a relatively contained volatility in the prices of oil and the implementation of increasingly ambitious climate policies in a context of political uncertainty.