Barometer of the RIE - Elcano Royal Institute empty_context Copyright (c), 2002-2018 Fundación Real Instituto Elcano Lotus Web Content Management <![CDATA[ 31st edition of the BRIE (November 2012) ]]> http://www.realinstitutoelcano.org/wps/portal/rielcano_en/survey?WCM_GLOBAL_CONTEXT=/elcano/elcano_in/barometer/barometer31 2012-09-04T11:07:15Z Technical data

Universe: general Spanish population, aged 18 and over (including Ceuta and Melilla).
Sample size: N = 1,200 interviewees.
Sample size: stratified, directly proportionate to the distribution of the national population, with proportionate quotas to the national population –except for Catalonia– according to age and gender. The sample specific to Catalonia is proportionate according to age and gender for 400 interviews.
Stratification by gender and age

 

Men

Women

Total

18-29

112

107

219

30-44

192

181

372

45-64

180

183

363

Over 65

105

141

246

Total

587

613

1.200

 

 

 

N

Weighting

Rest of Spain

800

1.2618

Cataluña

400

0.4764

Total

1,200

 

 

Sample error: ±2.9 for global data (1,200 n); ±4.1 for subsamples (600 n), p = q = 0.5, with a confidence interval of 95.5. ±5.0% for the Catalan sample.
Interview methodology: telephone (interviewee called at home).
Survey period: from 6 to 19 November 2012.
Average duration of interview: 18 minutes.
Field work: GAD3 (formerly Gabinete de Análisis Demoscópico).

1. Spain Brand Ambassadors

  • Spaniards have a highly positive opinion of the launch of the Spain Brand initiative, aimed to improve Spain’s image abroad: 71% consider it a good idea.

The government has launched an initiative known as the Spain Brand in order to improve the country’s image abroad. What’s your opinion?

Graph 1.

Very good

10.5

Good

61.1

Neither good nor bad

13.2

Bad

10.3

Very bad

2.3

DK/NA

2.6

Total

100.0

  • This BRIE also asked interviewees to give a score from 0 to 10 to a list of personalities, institutions and icons that might project a better image of Spain abroad.
  • Starting with the political sphere, the best-regarded personalities are the members of the Royal Family, followed by the former Socialist Prime Minister Felipe González and the judge Baltasar Garzón. The worst valued are currently active politicians, both government and opposition.

I shall read you a list of Spanish personalities and institutions. Please assign them a score from 0 to 10 according to their capacity for projecting a favourable image of Spain abroad.

Graph 2.

Queen Sofía

7.0

Prince Felipe

6.8

King Juan Carlos I

6.5

Felipe González

5.5

Baltasar Garzón

5.5

Javier Solana

5.2

Jose María Aznar

4.5

Mariano Rajoy

4.2

Josep Antoni Durán i Lleida

4.2

Alfredo Pérez Rubalcaba

4.1

  • In the business world the entrepreneur Amancio Ortega is considerably ahead of the rest, while it is striking that business leaders as a whole are given better scores than the average for politicians.

Graph 3.

Amancio Ortega

7.5

Florentino Pérez

6.3

Antonio Garrigues

5.8

Koplowitz sisters

5.8

Joan Rosell

5.5

  • In terms of commercial brands, Zara is clearly in the lead, followed by Repsol, SEAT and Iberdrola.

Graph 4.

ZARA

7.8

Repsol

6.8

SEAT

6.7

Iberdrola

6.7

Iberia

6.6

Telefónica

6.6

Indra

6.5

Freixenet

6.5

Editorial Planeta

6.5

  • The average for the cultural sphere is higher than for the previous categories. Even so, Montserrat Caballé and Plácido Domingo are well ahead, followed by Mario Vargas Llosa.

Graph 5.

Montserrat Caballé

8.2

Plácido Domingo

8.2

Mario Vargas Llosa

7.6

Antonio Banderas

7.5

Ferrán Adriá

7.4

Alejandro Sanz

7.3

Pedro Almodóvar

6.9

Penélope Cruz

6.8

Miquel Barceló

6.6

Isabel Coixet

6.4

  • Spaniards give the highest scores to their sportsmen and women, with the national football side and Rafa Nadal in the lead.

Graph 6.

Spanish national football team

9

Rafa Nadal

8.9

Pau Gasol

8.6

Olympic synchronised swimming team

8.4

Fernando Alonso

8.3

Real Madrid

7.9

F.C. Barcelona

7.9

Alberto Contador

7.9

  • As for journalists and opinion-makers, the favourites are the broadcaster Lorenzo Milá, the thinker Eduardo Punset and the cartoonist Forges. Conversely, the political commentator Pilar Rahola and the newspaper editor Pedro J. Ramírez are just above the pass mark.

Graph 7.

Lorenzo Mila

7.0

Eduardo Punset

6.9

Forges

6.7

Pepa Bueno

6.4

Angels Barceló

6.2

Fernando Savater

6.2

Carlos Herrera

6.2

Ernesto Sáenz de Buruaga

5.8

Pilar Rahola

5.4

Pedro J. Ramírez

5.2

  • As regards institutions, NGOs get the highest score, at 6.6, while only cultural foundations and the security and armed forces are above the pass mark. All other political and social institutions fail, to such an extent that both Parliament and government get only half the score of the NGOs.

Graph 8.

NGOs

6.6

Cultural foundations

5.9

State security forces

5.8

Armed forces

5.8

Judges and the judiciary

4.8

Church

4.5

Autonomous Communities

4.5

Government

4.1

Parliament

3.9

Graph 9.

Don Quixote

8.2

St James’s Way to Santiago de Compostela

8.0

Gaudí’s Cathedral of the Holy Family in Barcelona

7.9

The Cid

7.3

The Seville April Fair or Feria de Abril

7.1

King Ferdinand and Queen Isabella the Catholic

6.9

The festival of San Fermín in Pamplona

6.9

The Osborne bull

6.7

Joan Miró’s sun

6.6

Carmen

6.6

Graph 10.

Madrid

7.6

Barcelona

7.4

Santiago de Compostela

7.4

Canary Islands

7.3

Balearic Islands

7.1

Seville

7

Bilbao

6.7

Valencia

6.6

Zaragoza

6.6

Toledo

6.6

Graph 11.

Prado Museum

8.1

Cervantes Institute

7.5

Guggenheim Museum

7.5

Thyssen Museum

7.4

Dalí Museum

7.3

Reina Sofía Museum

7.1

City of the Arts and Sciences of Valencia

7.1

City of Culture of Santiago de Compostela

6.9

Fundación Carolina

6.3

Graph 12.

A comparison between the overall Spanish results and the specifically Catalan sample shows that the similarities are far greater than the differences. When valuing the Spain Brand’s almost 100 icons, the Catalan choices are largely similar to those of all other Spaniards: there are only significant differences, of over 0.5, in one of every three items. It should be borne in mind that among the list a few specifically Catalan elements were introduced as a control, in general non-Catalan icons were valued equally well in Catalonia.

In the cases where there are differences, which account for around 30% of the total, they are mostly attributable to the Catalans giving them a lower score than the rest of Spaniards. The most heavily penalised icons in Catalonia, with a difference of one point or more, are the football team Real Madrid, the Osborne bull advertisement, the newspaper editor Pedro J. Ramírez, the Royal Family, the Conservative politicians Aznar and Rajoy, and the Catholic Monarchs Ferdinand and Isabella. In any case, it should be highlighted that among the 100 icons there was a smaller number of specifically Catalan ones, making it more likely for the category of ‘Spanish non-Catalan icons’ to have been penalised in Catalonia.

As a result, it should be highlighted that in another significant number of cases, 10 out of 30, the discrepancy is because the Catalans in all cases gave a higher score to specifically Catalan icons. For instance, Barcelona and Freixenet received a point and a half more in Catalonia than they did in the rest of Spain.

Graph 13. Valuation Differences between Catalonia and the rest of Spain

Valuation Differences between Catalonia and the rest of Spain

2. The Paradox of the Catalans’ Pro-European and Pro-independence Stance

¿Are you in favour or against Catalan independence?

Graph 14.

In favour

42.7

Against

43.4

Indifferent

6.8

DK/NA

7.1

Total

100.0

BASE: Catalan sub-sample of 400 interviews.

If Catalonia becomes independent, should the EU recognise it as an independent state?

Graph 15.

Yes

62.1

No

27.8

DK/DA

10.1

Total

100.0

BASE: Catalan sub-sample of 400 interviews.

And do you think the EU should admit an independent Catalonia as a member state?

Graph 16.

Yes

58.3

No

29.8

DK/DA

11.9

Total

100.0

BASE: Catalan sub-sample of 400 interviews.

3. Pessimism about Leaving the Crisis Behind

Which way do you think the crisis is going?

Graph 17.

Improving

The same

Deteriorating

DK/NA

7.9

37.7

52.6

1.8

Do you think the first banking sector bail-out will end the crisis?

Graph 18.

Yes

No

DK/NA

6.1

83.1

10.7

Graph 19

Yes

No

DK/NA

19.8

64.2

16.1

Do you have the feeling that the EU is making progress against the crisis or is it at an impasse?

Graph 20

Progressing

At an impasse

DK/NA

9,8

89,1

1

4. Obama gets a Pass but Merkel Fails

What opinion do you have of the US election results?

Graph 21

Very good

Good

Neither good nor bad

Bad

Very bad

DK/NA

13,6

60,3

14,7

1,5

1

9

The US President is the best-valued international leader in Spain.

Please give a score from 0 (very bad) to 10 (very good) to each of the following personalities.

Graph 22

Barack Obama

6.8

François Hollande

5.8

David Cameron

5.4

Christine Lagarde

5.1

Mario Monti

5.0

José Manuel Durão Barroso

5.0

Angela Merkel

4.8

Herman Van Rompuy

4.8

Vladimir Putin

3.8

Cristina Fernández de Kirchner

3.5

Graph 23

It should also be highlighted that Germany is no longer the best rated country in Spain and its score has dropped to the level of Greece.

Assigning a score from 0 (very negative) to 10 (very positive), what are your feelings towards the following?

Graph 24

UK

6.1

Gibraltar

4.9

Germany

5.7

Argentina

5.2

EEUU

6.4

France

6.0

Greece

5.7

Portugal

6.1

Italy

6.1

Iran

4.1

Morocco

4.6

Bolivia

5.0

5. Intervention in Syria

Do you think the international community should intervene in Syria to depose the current regime and foster a transition to democracy?

Graph 25

Yes

35.6

No

32.3

DK/NA

32.1

Total

100.0

Should Spain take part in an international mission to Syria?

Graph 26

Yes

22.4

No

49.4

DK/NA

28.3

Total

100.0

6. Positive Valuation of the Withdrawal of Troops from Afghanistan

Graph 27

Very good

Good

Neither good nor bad

Bad

Very bad

DK/DA

9.4

49

17.1

5.2

7.7

11.6

Graph 28

    • Spaniards believe that the most appropriate icons to project a good image of Spain abroad are Don Quixote, the pilgrimage along St James’s Way and the architect Gaudí’s cathedral of the Holy Family in Barcelona. Nevertheless, traditional iconography still gets high scores, including Carmen, Joan Miró’s sun and the Osborne bull.
    • As to cities and geographical locations, the three winners are Madrid, Barcelona and Santiago de Compostela.
    • The clear winner among cultural institutions is the Prado Museum, half a point ahead of the Cervantes Institute and, once again, museums such as the Guggenheim and the Thyssen.
    • The top 10 ambassadors for the Spain Brand are, according to the scores awarded by those interviewed, the national football team, the two opera singers Plácido Domingo and Montserrat Caballé, and the literary character Don Quixote.
    • According to the BRIE 31’s results, based on an analysis of the responses in the Catalan sample, the Citizens of Catalonia are evenly divided as regards independence for the region, with 43% for and another 43% against. To these should be added the 15% who are still undecided.
    • In any case, a majority of Catalans (62%) believe that in the event of independence, the EU should recognise Catalonia as an independent state, while a similar proportion (58%) think the EU should also admit it as a member state. Therefore, the pro-independence stance is also pro-European.
    • Most Spaniards believe the economic situation has deteriorated further, followed at a certain distance by those who think it remains the same. Only a small minority consider that it has improved.
    • The vast majority think the first Spanish banking sector bail-out is insufficient to put an end to the crisis. Those who believe it will are such a small minority that they account for even less than those who don’t know what to answer.
    • Although not so firmly, most Spaniards (64%) are opposed to requesting a second bail-out.
    • As regards whether the EU is making any headway against the crisis, Spaniards are perfectly clear that it is at an impasse. Not only is it the opinion of the majority, but almost all have a clear opinion on the matter.
    • Spaniards are highly positive about Barack Obama’s re-election.
    • It should be highlighted that after having been for a long time one of the best valued international leaders, Spaniards now give Angela Merkel a fail.
    • Spaniards are now divided about military intervention in Syria, while a few months ago a majority were in favour.
    • What has not changed is the opposition to Spain’s participation in an international mission.
    • Spaniards are in favour of withdrawing their troops from Afghanistan. Only 12% consider it a bad idea, while 60% think it is good to withdraw them.
    • The Afghanistan mission is one of the most unpopular involving the Spanish armed forces.
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<![CDATA[ 30th edition of the BRIE (June 2012) ]]> http://www.realinstitutoelcano.org/wps/portal/rielcano_en/survey?WCM_GLOBAL_CONTEXT=/elcano/elcano_in/barometer/barometer30 2012-09-04T11:07:15Z Technical Data

Universe: general Spanish population, aged 18 and over (including Ceuta and Melilla).
Sample size: N = 1,000 interviewees.
Interview methodology used: telephone (interviewee called at home).
Sample size: stratified, directly proportionate to the distribution of the national population, with proportionate quotas according to age and gender.
Sample error: ±3.3 for global data (900n); ±4.7 for subsamples (450n), p = q = 0.5 and a confidence interval of 95.5.
Survey period: from 1 to 15 June 2012.
Field work: GAD3 (formerly known as Gabinete de Análisis Demoscópico).

THE EU BAILS OUT THE SPANISH BANKING SECTOR

  • Before the EU bailed out the Spanish banking sector, 52% of Spaniards did not think Spain would need to be bailed out, although almost 40% thought it would.

Do you think Spain will have to be bailed out?

Yes

No

DK/NA

36.1

52.4

11.5

  • Following the announcement that funds would be made available, 42% thought the terms better than those for the Greek, Portuguese and Irish bail-outs. However, one of every three Spaniards thinks they are the same as for the other countries.

The EU has finally had to bail out Spain’s banks. What’s your opinion?

Better than the other bail-outs

The same

Worse than the other bail-outs

DK/NA

42.3

29.6

12.7

15.5

  • AS regards the consequences for other issues, 60% think it’s good for Spain’s banking sector and 53% that it’s good for the Euro.

Is the bail-out positive or negative for…?

 

Very positive

Positive

Neither positive nor negative

Negative

Very negative

DK/NA

The Spanish banking sector

9.0

48.8

8.0

23.2

5.2

5.9

Euro and EU stability

3.5

50.5

12.1

20.4

2.4

11.1

Spain’s economy and employment

0.7

33.6

14.9

30.1

8.7

12.1

  • Spaniards are evenly divided about whether the effects of the bail-out are good or bad for the Spanish economy and employment.
  • But only 10% think it will be a turning point in the resolution of the crisis. The vast majority (77%) consider it one more step in a long process towards economic recovery.

Is the European bail-out of Spain’s banks the end of the crisis or just one step in a long process?

The end of Spain’s crisis

One step in a long process

DK/NA

9.3

76.8

13.8

  • Spaniards are highly critical of how institutions have managed the crisis, although less so as regards international ones than national ones such as the government and the Bank of Spain.

Since the nationalisation of Bankia to the EU’s bail-out of the Spanish banks, how would you describe the role played by the following actors and institutions?

 

Very positive

Positive

Neither positive nor negative

Negative

Very negative

DK/NA

Spanish government

23.6

5.6

36.7

20.8

13.3

EU

0.3

27.5

13.6

34.2

8.3

16.1

IMF

0.3

26.7

12.8

33.9

7.5

18.9

ECB

0.3

26.1

11.9

35.3%

7.8

18.6

Bank of Spain

14.7

13.9

34.4

20.3

16.7

  • As regards Spanish political figures, the worst scores are those of Rato and Fernández Ordóñez, and the best those of the King and García-Margallo.

Please give a score from 0 to 10, with 0 being very bad and 10 very good, to each of the following political figures.

 

Score

NA

NS

Luis de Guindos

4.3

4.2

9.2

José Manuel García-Margallo

4.4

7.5

13.1

Cristóbal Montoro

4.2

3.1

10.3

Pedro Morenés

4.4

11.1

15.8

Rodrigo Rato

2.4

1.9

7.2

Miguel Angel Fernández Ordóñez

2.6

3.6

8.1

King Juan Carlos I

5.4

0.6

7.2

SPAIN’S IMAGE ABROAD

  • Fifty five percent of Spaniards believe the bail-out is bad for Spain’s image abroad.

Following the ERU’s bail-out of the Spanish banking sector, what image do you think Spain has abroad?

Much better

Better

The same

Worse

Much worse

DK/NA

1.4

11.4

26.7

35.8

15.3

9.4

  • In this respect, this is bad news, since it is precisely in the economy that Spain has its weakest point. The core of 3 which Spaniards give their economy contrasts with the 5 they give themselves as a society.

From 0 to 10, what image do you think Spain has abroad in the following aspects?

 

Score

NA

Economy

3.3

1.5

Culture

5.2

1.8

Politics

3.6

1.5

Society

5.4

1.5

Spain in general

5.1

4.1%

  • The perception that Spaniards have of their country’s image abroad is worse than the image foreigners actually have of Spain. While Spaniards give their country a score of 5, and believe that foreigners give Spain the same score, the actual average the UK, Germany, the US and Brazil give Spain is 7.2. Therefore, Spain’s domestic image is worse than it is abroad given the prevailing pessimism in Spanish society.
 

Spain’s score

UK

7.2

Germany

6.5

US

6.9

Brazil

8.1

AVERAGE ABROAD

7.2

Spanish average

5.1

  • Almost 80% believe public expenditure on improving Spain’s image abroad should be maintained or increased.
  • In this regard, 60% of Spaniards consider the Spain brand initiative useful to improve Spain’s image abroad.

What’s your opinion of the government’s Spain Brand initiative to improve the country’s image abroad?

Very good

Good

Neither good nor bad

Bad

Very bad

DK/NA

12.2

46.8

24.6

6.0

1.1

9.3

  • Nevertheless, most Spaniards (74%) also think that the priority is to solve the country’s real economic problems, although one in four think it is also important to improve its image.

What is Spain’s priority?

Solve its economic problems

Improve its image abroad

Both

Neither

DK/NA

74.2

2.4

22.5

0.4

0.4

THE IMPORTANCE OF CULTURE

  • Compared with the discredit of the economy, Spanish culture and art are valued by Spaniards, with a score of 5.5.
  • Similarly, the promotion of Spanish culture abroad is clearly supported by Spanish public opinion, with most Spaniards believing that expenditure on this item should be maintained or increased (65%).

Should expenditure by public institutions and foundations on the following items be increased, maintained or reduced?

 

Increase

Maintain

Reduce

Indifferent

DK/NA

Subsidies for artists

11.4

49.9

36.3

1.3

1.1

Infrastructure

11.1

48.1

38.8

0.9

1.1

Educating the public

52.6

36.5

8.5

1.1

1.3

Further training of artists

10.5

44.1

41.9

1.1

2.4

Promoting Spanish culture abroad

13.8

51.2

32.1

0.9

2.0

THE EURO CRISIS

  • Most Spaniards think that no progress has been made in combating the Euro-zone crisis and that the situation remains stagnant.
  • What’s your opinion of the following measures to combat the debt crisis?
 

Very positive

Positive

Neither positive nor negative

Negative

Very negative

DK/NA

Recapitalisation of banks

1.6

36.3

11.4

36.3

7.3

7.1

Reform of the ECB

1.3

47.7

15.6

22.0

2.4

10.9

Reform of the EU in general

2.9

53.0

15.6

17.1

1.3

10.0

Bail-out and intervention in trouble-ridden countries

1.1

55.2

14.7

19.4

2.4

7.1

Issue of Euro-bonds

0.4

46.3

19.2

13.4

0.4

20.3

  • Perhaps because of this the image of Europe’s leaders is not very good, as in most cases they are below the pass mark.

THE IMAGE OF FERNÁNDEZ DE KIRCHNER AND MORALES DETERIORATES, WITH FEARS OF A SPILL-OVER EFFECT

  • Cristina Fernández de Kirchner is the international leader least appreciated by Spaniards, at 2.9, followed by Evo Morales, at 3.1.

Please give the following international leaders a score from 0 to 10.

 

Score

NA

NS

David Cameron

5.2

10.4

 9.3

François Hollande

5.5

 7.8

19.6

Barack Obama

6.3

2.0

 3.1

Christine Lagarde

4.6

11.5

 9.3

Mario Monti

4.7

 9.3

 6.7

Angela Merkel

4.9

 3.3

 3.6

José Manuel Durão Barroso

5.1

11.8

14.8

Herman Van Rompuy

4.6

21.4

15.5

Vladimir Putin

3.4

  8.9

14.0

Cristina Fernández de Kichner

2.9

 5.1

 8.6

Evo Morales

3.1

 6.2

10.4

  • Fifty five percent approve the measures taken against Argentina following the nationalisation of Repsol-YPF.

What’s your opinion of the measures taken by Spain against Argentina in response to the Repsol-YPF case?

 

Sufficient

Neither sufficient nor insufficient

Insufficient

DK/NA

Take Argentina to an international court

58.5

12.6

18.8

10.0

Restrict Argentine imports

54.1

14.4

20.6

10.9

  • Opinions are divided as to the similarity between the nationalisation between the Spanish oil company in Argentina and of Red Eléctrica Española in Bolivia, although a majority believe they are different cases.

Are the nationalisations of Red Eléctrica Española in Bolivia and Repsol-YPF in Argentina the same?

Identical

Different

DK/NA

38.1

49.0

12.9

  • In any case, most Spaniards (70%), are concerned that the trend could spread to the rest of the region.
  • However, it should be highlighted that the image of these leaders is worse than that of their countries, with Argentina scoring 4.6 and Bolivia 4.5.

Following the nationalisation of Spanish companies in Argentina and Bolivia, how likely is it for the trend to spread to other countries?

Very

Quite

Not very

Not at all

DK/NA

15.7

55.0

14.4

5.3

9.5

THE HOLLANDE EFFECT

  • Fernández de Kirchner’s score is half that of Obama, who gets the best score (6.3).
  • In any case, the highlight of this wave of the BRIE is the surge of François Hollande, who is now the second-best in the list. At 5.5 he has pushed back Angela Merkel, whose score has dropped to 4.9. Hence, Spaniards want more Hollande and less Merkel.
  • Most Spaniards (55%) think that Hollande’s presidency will be good for Europe and also for Spain. The same percentage think that Europe’s economic policy can change after Hollande’s election.
  • Although the majority of Spaniards (56%) also think that Germany has a greater say in Europe than France. Hence, Spaniards are evenly split: while half think it important to have close relations with the new French President, the other half think the same should be done with Merkel.

Hollande’s election as French President is very good, good, bad or very bad for…?

 

Very good

Good

Neither good nor bad

Bad

Very bad

DK/NA

Europe

3.5

49.4

27.5

4.0

0.4

15.1

Spain

3.3

48.8

27.1

4.7

1.1

15.1

FEAR OF ISLAMISM AND CONCERN FOR SYRIA

  • The perception of Spaniards is that the process of transition to democracy in the Arab countries is not going well. Views are more pessimistic than a year ago.

In your opinion, how are the following transitions to democracy progressing?

 

Very well

Well

Neither well nor badly

Badly

Very badly

DK/NA

Tunisia

-

6.7

18.8

47.2

6.0

21.3

Egypt

0.2

3.5

17.5

51.7

10.6

16.4

Syria

-

0.9

14.2

34.4

35.5

15.1

Libya

-

0.9

16.0

41.9

24.2

17.1

Morocco

-

3.1

30.2

41.5

7.5

17.7

  • In most cases, the fear is that the outcome will be civil wars.

As a result of the changes so far, do you think there could be…?

 

Very likely

Quite likely

Not very likely

Not at all likely

DK/NA

Civil wars

11.8

58.1

12.0

1.1

17.1

Growth of Islamism

9.8

50.1

21.5

1.8

16.9

Conflicts with neighbouring countries

3.5

46.8

29.5

2.7

17.5

Improvements in living standards

0.2

12.2

47.0

22.8

17.7

Final transformation into democracies

12.2

42.6

27.5

17.7

  • A significant majority (55%) are negative about the advent to power of the Islamists.

Is the advent to power of the Islamist parties….?

Very good

Good

Neither good nor bad

Bad

Very bad

DK/NA

-

8.0

25.7

39.2

14.9

12.2

  • There is a growing proportion of Spaniards who in favour of a multilateral international intervention to topple the Syrian regime.

Do you believe the international community should intervene in Syria to topple the current regime and help the country’s transition to democracy?

Yes

No

DK/NA

54.6

28.5

16.9

  • However, although Spanish public opinion is not so in favour of sending Spanish troops to the front line, although support for the mission is gradually increasing.

Should Spain participate in a future international mission in Syria?

Yes

No

DK/NA

35.2

50.3

14.5

LACK OF INTEREST IN GIBRALTAR

  • As regards the dispute over Gibraltar, almost 60% of Spaniards believe it to be an unimportant question in Spain’s foreign policy.

In Spain’s overall foreign policy, how important is the dispute with the UK over Gibraltar?

Very

Quite

Not very

Not at all

DK/DA

14.7

20.3

41.0

15.6

8.5

  • In any case, after the latest events (harassment of Spanish fishing vessels, visit of members of the British Royal Family to Gibraltar, etc), Spanish public opinion is evenly divided: 40% favour greater diplomatic pressure while another 40% would prefer to wind down the tension.

After the recent incidents in Gibraltar, what should Spain’s attitude be?

More diplomatic pressure

Reduce the tension

DK/NA

41.2

44.1

14.7

]]>
<![CDATA[ 29th edition of the BRIE (March-April 2012) ]]> http://www.realinstitutoelcano.org/wps/portal/rielcano_en/survey?WCM_GLOBAL_CONTEXT=/elcano/elcano_in/barometer/barometer29 2012-09-04T10:56:47Z Technical Data

1st WAVE

Universe: general Spanish population, aged 18 and over (including Ceuta and Melilla).
Sample size: N = 1,000 interviewees.
Interview methodology used: telephone (interviewee called at home).
Sample size: stratified, directly proportionate to the distribution of the national population, with proportionate quotas according to age and gender.
Sample error: ±3.2 for global data (1,000n); ±4.0 for subsamples (500n), p = q = 0.5 and a confidence interval of 95.5.
Survey period: from 15 to 29 March 2012.
Field work: GAD3 (formerly known as Gabinete de Análisis Demoscópico).

2nd WAVE

Universe: general Spanish population, aged 18 and over (including Ceuta and Melilla).
Sample size: N = 500 interviewees.
Interview methodology used: telephone (interviewee called at home).
Sample size: stratified, directly proportionate to the distribution of the national population, with proportionate quotas according to age and gender.
Sample error: ±3.2 for global data (1,000n); ±4.0 for subsamples (500n), p = q = 0.5 and a confidence interval of 95.5.
Survey period: from 13 to 17 April 2012.Field work: GAD3 (formerly known as Gabinete de Análisis Demoscópico).

  1. UNANIMOUS CONDEMNATION OF ARGENTINA’S NATIONALISATION OF REPSOL-YPF
  • Following recent events, 90% of Spaniards consider very serious the Argentine government’s nationalisation of Repsol-YPF and the obstacles placed in the way of Spanish companies that invest in Argentina.

¿How do you consider the situation that Argentina’s nationalisation of Repsol-YPF has given rise to?

Very serious

Quite serious

Somewhat serious

Not very serious

Not at all serious

DK

NC

14.2%

40.7%

27.7%

5.3%

2.9%

8.0%

1.2%

  • Forty-four percent of Spaniards believe that the diplomatic relations between Spain and Argentina will deteriorate as a result.

¿And how do you think it will affect the future relations between Spain and Argentina?

Will improve

Will remain the same

Will deteriorate

NS

NC

11.8%

34.7%

44.1%

8.2%

1.2%

  • The outcome has been that Spanish public opinion now has a negative opinion of Argentina’s President Cristina Fernández de Kirchner. If in March her score was 5, following the Repsol-YPF incident it has dropped to 3.4, making her one of the least liked international leaders, between Raúl Castro and Vladimir Putin.

  • The events are especially serious given the Spanish people’s sympathy for Argentina. In the Falklands dispute, most Spaniards are on Argentina’s side, over 50% thinking it is right in its claim over the Islands.

There is tension between the UK and Argentina on account of the Falkland Islands dispute. Who do you think is right?

UK

Argentina

Both

Neither

DK/NA

7.4

50.0

11.1

4.5

27.1

  • Fifty-eight percent of those interviewed believe that the Falklands conflict between the UK and Argentina is similar to Spain’s dispute with the UK over the sovereignty of Gibraltar.

In your opinion, is there any similarity with the dispute over Gibraltar between the UK and Spain?

Yes

No

DK/NA

58.4

23.7

17.9

  • Although Cameron and Rajoy have talked about Gibraltar, most Spaniards don’t think there will be any change. Around 70% believe no progress will be made.

Mariano Rajoy and David Cameron have talked about Gibraltar. Do you expect any progress or will things stay as they are now?

Will stay the same

Progress

DK

NA

69.8%

19.2%

7.5%

3.4%

  1. THE EUROPEAN LEADERS’ CRITICISM OF SPAIN HAS NOT UNDERMINED NATIONAL CONFIDENCE
  • Criticism of Spain has deteriorated the popularity of the European leaders who have pointed at Spain as the problem in the Euro crisis. Sarkozy is down 1 point in popularity, with Spanish public opinion having dropped him from the pass mark to fail, from 5.1 to 4.1. The same has happened to Monti, who has dropped from 4.8 to 3.8.

  • Despite the criticism and news items such as the rise in the risk premium, most Spaniards (57%) continue to believe that that Spain will not have to be bailed out by the international financial institutions.

Do you think Spain will have to be bailed out by the EU?

Yes

No

DK

NA

30.8%

57.3%

10.1%

1.7%

  • As regards the Greek crisis, most Spaniards (54%) are in favour of Spain remaining within the Euro Zone. Only one of every three thinks it should leave.

Do you think Greece should exit the euro?

Yes

No

DK/NA

32.0

53.8

14.2

  • Among the possible threats for Spain, the break-up of the euro is considered ‘very serious’ by 44% of Spaniards, and ‘serious’ by another 44%. Hence, the public is worried and the possibility of the euro breaking up is considered to be an important problem in the event of occurring.

  1. GROWING CRITICISM OF GERMANY
  • Three of every four Spaniards (73%) believe that ‘Germany does not consider the interests of countries like Spain’.
  • Sixty percent think ‘all member countries should have the same influence in the EU’.

How much do you agree with the following opinions about Germany?

 

Agree very much

Agree

Neither agree nor disagree

Disagree

Disagree very much

DK/NA

Germany is currently the dominant country in Europe

55.3

31.7

3.4

5,8

0.6

3.2

Germany does not take into consideration Spain’s interests

28.5

35.3

12.6

16,0

2.8

4.8

Europe needs countries that show leadership like Germany

19.2

40.7

9.4

21.4

6.4

3.0

Spain should strengthen its relations with Germany

31.9

41.9

12.0

7.6

2.2

4.4

All member countries should have the same influence in Europe

27.1

33.3

14.8

19.0

1.8

4.0

  • Despite this, Germany, along with Japan, are the best considered by Spaniards.

What score, from 0 to 10 (0 being very negative and 10 very positive), would you give the following countries?:

 

Score

NA

NS

Germany

6.4

0.2

1.4

US

6.2

0.4

1.4

France

5.4

0.2

1.4

Greece

4.5

0.4

2.8

Portugal

5.1

0.4

1.6

Italy

5.4

0.4

1.2

Iran

4.0

1.4

3.6

China

5.3

1.2

3.4

Brazil

5.7

1.2

3.0

India

5.4

1.2

4.6

Morocco

4.3

0.8

3.4

Japan

6.2

1.4

3.0

  1. PUTIN’S POOR IMAGE
  • Angela Merkel is still amongst the best valued international leaders, in second place after Obama. At the other extreme, the worst scores are for Vladimir Putin (3.4) and Raúl Castro (2.7).

What score, from 0 to 10 (0 being very negative and 10 very positive), would you give each of these leaders?:

 

Score

NA

NS

David Cameron

5.1

10.6

12.6

Nicolas Sarkozy

5.1

1.6

8.2

Barack Obama

6.2

1.0

7.4

Christine Lagarde

4.9

16.4

13.6

Mario Monti

4.8

13.0

13.4

Angela Merkel

5.6

2.4

8.6

JM Durão Barroso

5.0

15.4

12.0

Herman Van Rompuy

4.6

24.4

13.6

Catherine Ashton

4.5

27.1

13.2

Lucas Papademos

3.8

18.0

11.8

Vladimir Putin

3.4

11.0

8.8

Cristina Fernández de Kirchner

5.0

10.8

9.8

Raúl Castro

2.7

6.6

8.2

Data from the first wave (March)

IRAN

  • Seventy five percent of those interviewed believe the Iranian nuclear research programme has a military purpose.

Despite the warnings from the international community, Iran is continuing with its uranium enrichment programme. What do you think is its purpose?

Peaceful, civil use

Military, develop nuclear weapons

Indifferent

DK/NA

7.0

74.9

8.4

9.6

  • Even so, 62% believe economic sanctions should be applied, with only 11% being in favour of the use of force.

What should be done if Iran refuses to halt its nuclear programme?

Use force

Apply economic sanctions

Other

Indifferent

DK/NA

11,2

62,1

6,4

8,6

11,6

  • Sixty six percent of Spaniards think that the possibility of Iran cutting off oil supplies is a serious threat to Spain.

Is the possibility of Iran cutting off oil supplies to the West a threat to Spain?

Very much so

Quite

Somewhat

Not at all

DK

NA

29.4%

36.1%

21.2%

4.3%

7.9%

1.1%

  1. CAMPAIGN AGAINST SPANISH SPORT
  • Following the Contador case, 85% of Spaniards think that ‘the foreign press have taken advantage of the ruling against the cyclist to discredit Spanish sport’.
  • Eighty one percent believe that ‘some international news media are interested in discrediting Spanish sport’.

How true are the following statements? Very, quite, not much or not at all?

 

Very

Quite

Not much

Not at all

DK/NA

Success in sports helps improve a country’s image abroad

44.3

40.4

11.4

2.9

1.1

Spain’s image conjures up extravagance and economic collapse

30.3

41.0

20.4

5.0

3.3

Big sporting events like Formula 1 races and the Olympic Games attract investments and create jobs

26.1

41.9

21.9

7.5

2.6

The foreign press has taken advantage of the penalty imposed on the cyclist Alberto Contador to discredit Spanish sport

46.1

37.9

11.2

1.8

3.1

  1. SPAIN’S IMAGE
  • While an overwhelming majority believe there is an intentional campaign, the percentage is lower as regards other aspects of Spain’s image: 61% think that ‘some international news media are interested in discrediting Spain’s international image’
  • Another 55% believe there is also a campaign against Spanish companies.

Do you think some international media are interested in discrediting…?

 

Yes

No

DK/DA

The image of Spanish sport

81.1

15.8

3.1

Spain’s international image

64.4

29.2

6.4

Spanish companies

55.2

34.7

10.1

The image abroad of Spain’s regions

49.9

37.6

12.5

Spanish products

60.4

31.9

7.7

  1. MAINTAIN AID AND DEVELOPMENT COOPERATION
  • In the current context of crisis and adjustments in public spending, not even 10% of Spaniards are in favour of cutting expenditure on aid and development cooperation.

Should the state increase, maintain or reduce the expenditure on the following:

 

Increase

Maintain

Reduce

Don’t care

DK/DA

Education and scholarships

63.7

33.3

2.2

0.6

0.2

Defence

10.8

56.1

31.9

0.4

0.8

Aid and development cooperation

39.5

53.9

5.8

0.2

0.6

Culture

46.3

49.9

3.4

0.4

Law and order

27.7

64.5

7.2

0.4

0.2

Promotion of Spanish culture abroad

27.1

60.5

11.4

0.6

0.4

Promotion abroad of culture of Spanish regions

17.8

63.1

16.4

1.4

1.2

Embassies, consulates, etc

8.8

58.1

31.1

1.2

0.8

  • As regards the kidnapping of aid workers in Africa, only a minority of Spaniards want them to be prevented from going (32%). Thirty-eight percent believe they should continue to go, but with support from international armed forces, while 10% think they should be provided with protection from private security companies paid by NGOs.

Some aid workers have been kidnapped in Africa. What do you think should be done given the lack of security in the areas in which they operate?

Prevent them from going

Provide them with international military support

Make them go with private security

DK

DA

32.8%

38.3%

9.9%

12.3%

6.7%

  1. ARAB SPRING AND SYRIA
  • In general, pessimism is the prevailing view about the present and future of the changes in the Arab countries, and particularly in Syria’s case.

In your opinion, how are the transitions to democracy progressing in...?

 

Very well

Well

Indifferently

Poorly

Very poorly

DK/DA

Tunisia

0.4

11.8

16.8

36.5

11.6

23.0

Egypt

3.8

13.4

44.7

21.8

16.4

Syria

2.6

9.4

34.3

37.9

15.8

Libya

5.6

15.6

38.9

21.6

18.4

Morocco

0.2

7.8

27.3

30.1

16.8

17.8

  • At present, in this latter case, 50% of Spaniards are in favour of military intervention by the international community to topple the regime.

Do you think the international community should intervene in Syria to topple the current regime and help the country’s transition to democracy?

Yes

No

DK/DA

50.9

30.7

18.4

  • However, one out of every four Spaniards is not in favour of Spain’s participation in such a mission.

Should Spain take part in a future international mission to Syria?

Yes

No

DK/DA

32.7

52.7

14.6

]]>
<![CDATA[ 28th edition of the BRIE (December 2011) ]]> http://www.realinstitutoelcano.org/wps/portal/rielcano_en/survey?WCM_GLOBAL_CONTEXT=/elcano/elcano_in/barometer/barometer28 2012-01-04T06:08:40Z Technical Data

Universe: general Spanish population, aged 18 and over (including Ceuta and Melilla).
Sample size: N = 1,003 interviewees.
Interview methodology used: telephone (interviewee called at home).
Sample size: stratified, directly proportionate to the distribution of the national population, with proportionate quotas according to age and gender.
Sample error: ±3.2 for global data (1,000n); ±4.0 for subsamples (500 n), p=q=0.5 and a confidence interval of 95.5.
Survey period: from 23 November to 2 December, 2011.
Field work: GAD3 (formerly known as Gabinete de Análisis Demoscópico).

A New Foreign Policy for a New Government

  • The majority of those interviewed want Spain to play an active role in the world. They account for 76% of the interviewees, compared with 19% who prefer that Spain stay out of international affairs.

Table 1. What do you think is better for the future of Spain? (%)

Play a more active role in the world

Stay out of international affairs

Indifferent

DK/NA

76.2

18.8

2.0

3.0

  • Spaniards are more divided over multilateralism. While 49% are in favour of working with other countries within international organisations, 45% argue that Spain should look out for its own interests.

Table 2. With which of the following ideas do you agree most? (%)

Working more with the international community

Looking out for one’s own interests

Neither

DK/NA

49.1

44.9

0.9

5.2

Asked about which geographical areas Spain should concentrate on in its international relations, an overwhelming majority said Europe. It was the first option for two out of three Spaniards (66%). Next came the US, which was stated as a first option by 12% of those polled, and as a second option by 44%. In third place was Latin America: 8% as a first option and 16% as second. Therefore, there is a pretty clear order of priorities for the new government: (1) Europe; (2) the US; and (3) Latin America.

Table 3. In your opinion, what are the two geographical areas which Spain should concentrate on most in its foreign relations? (1st and 2nd options, %)

 

Europe

Sub-Saharan Africa

Russia & Eastern Europe

US

Latin America

Asia-Pacific

Maghreb & North Africa

Other Muslim countries

None

All

DK/NA

1st option

66.5

1.5

0.2

12.2

7.9

4.8

1.4

0.6

0.2

2.9

1.7

2nd option

13.9

1.9

2.2

44.8

16.1

8.6

6.0

0.6

0.3

0.9

4.7

Within the area of international affairs, there are some very clear priorities as regards increasing expenditure:

  • Development aid and cooperation (46%)
  • Promotion of Spanish culture overseas (37%)
  • Defence and embassies/consulates (15%)

Table 4. Should the government increase, maintain or decrease the following areas of expenditure (%)

 

Increase

Maintain

Reduce

Indifferent

DK/NA

Education and grants

69.6

28.7

1.5

0.2

Defence

13.6

49.4

36.3

0.1

0.7

Development aid and cooperation

46.3

44.7

7.8

0.4

0.9

Culture

55.8

39.6

4.1

0.3

0.2

Public order

36.4

55.0

8.2

0.2

0.2

Promoting Spanish culture overseas

36.6

51.7

10.5

0.6

0.6

Overseas promotion of the culture of Spain’s Autonomous Communities

25.3

52.9

19.0

1.2

1.5

Embassies, consulates, etc.

14,7

50,0

32,3

0,5

2,5

A total of 78% of Spaniards polled would like Spain to wield more power and influence in the world. Focusing further on this issue, a list of goals was suggested. By order of which is the most desirable, the ranking obtained was the following:

  • To be a permanent member of the UN Security Council (70%).
  • Join the G-8 (63%)
  • Lead the community of Ibero-American countries (52%)
  • Participate in international military operations (34%)
  • Become a nuclear power (20%)

Table 5. How important is it for Spain to:

 

Very
important

Quite
important

Not very
important

Not at all
 important

DK/NA

Join the G8 club of the world´s richest countries

20.1

43.4

20.3

10.6

5.6

Be a permanent member of the UN Security Council

22.1

47.9

17.9

7.9

4.2

Possess nuclear weapons, like the US, the UK and France

3.5

17.9

23.9

52.5

2.1

Participate actively in international military operations

6.4

27.4

29.8

32.3

4.1

Lead the community or association of all Ibero-American countries

15.0

37.0

26.6

16.1

5.4

In 2007 there were higher percentages, around 20% or more. It is interesting to note how the economic crisis and pessimism have lowered Spaniards’ aspirations considerably.

Graph 1. How important are they for Spain?

Positive Assessment of EU Reforms

  • A majority of Spaniards (65%) felt EU reform was necessary and thus welcomed the results of last summit in Brussels. However, some 38% also said they are in favour of issuing eurobonds backed by the EU.

Table 6. How would you describe your assessment of the following measures with respect to the debt crisis?

 

Very
positive

Positive

Neither positive nor negative

Negative

Very
negative

DK/NA

Recapitalisation of banks

3.8

34.2

10.6

37.0

5.6

8.8

ECB reform

8.0

53.8

12.6

15.4

1.8

8.4

Reform of the EU in general

8.8

55.6

12.6

13.4

2.2

7.4

Bailouts and financial oversight of countries with problems

6.4

49.4

18.8

17.2

1.0

7.2

Issue of eurobonds

4.6

34.4

17.0

21.8

1.4

20.8

Most of those polled, 63%, think it unlikely that Spain will have to be bailed out, although another 34% do not have that degree of confidence in Spain’s chances of averting such a fate.

Table 7. How likely do you think it is that the EU will have to bail out and intervene in Spain, as it has done with Greece, Ireland and Portugal?

Very likely

Quite likely

Not very likely

Highly unlikely

DK/NA

5.8

27.6

39.6

23.0

4.0

  • Spaniards are divided over the ‘technocrat’ governments that are now in power in Italy and Greece. A total of 47% approve of them, but another 40% gives them a negative score.

Table 8. In Italy and Greece, unelected prime ministers who are experts in economics have been appointed. How do you assess this step?

Very good

Good

Neither good nor bad

Bad

Very bad

DK/NA

7.9

38.8

11.9

27.8

11.2

2.4

  • Despite the tough times it is enduring, the EU retains a good image. With a score of 5.7, it is the most highly-rated international institution among those polled.

Table 9. On a scale of 0 to 10 (0 being very negative and 10 very positive), how do you rate the following international organisations (from 0 to 10)?

 

Average

NA

NV

EU

5.7

0.2

2.2

IMF

4.8

1.8

4.0

World Bank

4.6

2.2

5.2

ECB

4.7

0.8

4.4

G8

4.6

3.8

4.8

G20

4.8

4.2

6.6

NATO

5.1

1.4

5.2

  • Also retaining a good image are Germany and Chancellor Angela Merkel, the second most-highly rated leader, surpassed only by US President Barack Obama, with a score of 6.3.

Table 10. For each of these public figures, what score would you give them on a scale of 0 to 10, with 0 meaning very bad and 10 very good

 

Average

NA

NV

David Cameron

5.5

11.1

13.1

Nicolas Sarkozy

5.6

1.2

5.8

Barack Obama

6.3

0.8

6.2

Christine Lagarde

5.1

21.5

14.3

Angela Merkel

5.9

1.4

7.0

José Manuel Durão Barroso

5.4

13.1

11.2

Vladimir Putin

4.5

7.8

15.1

Putin’s Poor Image

  • At the opposite end of the high ratings scored by Obama and Merkel, Vladimir Putin is the worst-rated leader. He failed, with a score of 4.5. Russia’s image is better than its leader’s, but even so it only scored 5.3, the same as Greece.

Table 11. On a scale of 0 to 10 (0 being very negative and 10 very positive), what are your feelings towards the following countries?

 

Average

DK/NA

Italy

6.1

1.6

Germany

6.5

2.0

US

6,1

2.4

Greece

5.3

2.0

Portugal

5.9

2.2

Russia

5.3

7.6

Fears Regarding the Changes in the Arab World and the Intervention in Libya

  • Fears persist about the changes in the Arab world. A total of 70% see civil wars on the horizon, 60% expect a rise of Islamism and 52% anticipate conflicts with neighbouring countries.

Graph 2. Expectations for the Arab world

Expectations for the Arab world

  • A total of 45% of Spaniards have a positive opinion on the participation and role played by the Spanish armed forces in Libya, compared with 30% who do not support the mission.

Table 12. Opinion on the intervention in Libya (%)

 

Very positive

Positive

Indifferent

Negative

Very negative

DK/NA

Libya

10.0

35.5

9.0

27.1

12.2

6.2

  • A total of 49% would approve an intervention in Syria to help usher in democracy, while 35% reject the idea.

Table 13. Do you feel that the international community should intervene in Syria in order to overthrow the current regime and facilitate a transition towards democracy? (%)

Yes

No

DK/NA

48.9

34.9

16.3

  • In any case there is a major inconsistency here because a majority of those polled, 52%, would not support Spain’s participation in such a mission.

Table 14. Should Spain take part in an international mission in Syria?

Yes

No

DK/NA

33.6

51.6

14.8

Economic Sanctions Against Iran

  • A vast majority of Spaniards, 78%, suspect that Iran’s uranium-enrichment programme is a military one aimed at developing nuclear weapons.

Table 15. Despite warnings from the international community, Iran has kept up its research programme on uranium enrichment. What do you think its goals are?

Peaceful, with civilian goals

Military, to build nuclear weapons

Indifferent

DK/NA

10.2

77.8

2.2

9.8

  • However, even in the current context of rising tensions, 73% prefer economic sanctions rather than the use of force against Iran (8%).

Table 16. What do you think should be done with Iran if it does not halt its programme?

Apply force

Apply economic sanctions

Other

Indifferent

DK/NA

8.0

73.0

8.4

2.2

8.4

Failure of Climate Change Talks in South Africa

  • Second only to the international financial crisis, 45% of Spaniards (45%) consider global warming to be one of the biggest threats. In light of this, they will probably feel frustrated with the results of the Durban Summit in South Africa.

Table 17. Perception of possible threats to Spain’s vital interests (% of extremely important, important and not at all important)

 

Extremely important

Important

Not at all important

DK/NA

Islamic fundamentalism

25.4

56.7

15.

2.4

International terrorism

27.6

56.7

14.9

0.8

Illegal immigration into Spain

29.6

48.9

20.1

1.4

Global warming

45.5

46.9

6.4

1.2

The international financial crisis

54.0

44.0

1.8

0.2

Iran’s possible development of nuclear weapons

31.8

54.0

11.8

2.4

The situation in Afghanistan

19.6

59.6

18.2

2.6

The situation in Pakistan

19.6

57.2

19.0

4.2

  • Environmental concerns have risen to second place because of the decline in the concern over international terrorism, a phenomenon which only 27% of those polled now consider a major threat, whereas in 2003-o4 the percentage was 70%.

Graph 3. Perception of the threat of international terrorism in 2011 (% of ‘very serious’)

Perception of the threat of international terrorism in 2011

]]>
<![CDATA[ 27th edition of the BRIE (June 2011) ]]> http://www.realinstitutoelcano.org/wps/portal/rielcano_en/survey?WCM_GLOBAL_CONTEXT=/elcano/elcano_in/barometer/barometer27 2011-07-21T01:04:21Z Technical Data

  • Universe: general Spanish population, aged 18 and over.
  • Sample size: N = 1,100 interviewees.
  • Interview methodology used: telephone (interviewee called at home).
  • Sample size: stratified, directly proportionate to the distribution of the national population, with proportionate quotas according to age and gender.
  • Sample error: ±3.0 for global data (1,100n); ±4.0 for subsamples (5500n) (*), p = q = 0.5 and a confidence interval of 95.5.
  • Survey period: from 24 May to 3 June 2011.
  • Field work: Gabinete de Análisis Demoscópico (GAD).

MERKEL’S POPULARITY DOWN, BUT SO IS SYMPATHY FRO GREECE

The German Chancellor Angela Merkel’s popularity has declined significantly since the BRIE-26 survey was carried out in February 2011. In the past few months, the grade that Spaniards give Merkel has gone down by nearly one point: from 6.7 to 6, so no longer good, but rather just a pass. Certainly, the most important factor is the E. coli crisis blamed initially on Spanish cucumbers, since the approval rating of other European leaders has not changed. Hence, austerity plans are probably not the cause of the German leader’s decline.

Graph 1. Evolution of approval rating of European leaders February-June 2011

Graph 1. Evolution of approval rating of European leaders February-June 2011

  • As for whether to modify the Schengen Treaty to restore border controls between member states, one of every two Spaniards back new restrictions. But those who disagree with this trimming of freedoms do not lag far behind and account for 30% of the population. So it can be said that the measure has support, although not from a majority of the people.

Table 1. Some European countries argue that border controls between countries of the EU should be restored; what is your opinion?

(%)

Very much
in favour

Somewhat
in favour

Nether in favour
nor against

Somewhat
against

Very much
against

DK/DA

Restoring border controls

21.2

34.1

9.1

11.5

18.8

5.3

  • On this issue, there are major differences between left- and right-leaning Spaniards. Among the former, support for the restrictions is 50%, while the proportion rises to 65% among the latter.
  • While in earlier Barometers Spanish public opinion backed helping Greece, today it is completely divided on the issue. A total of 41% favour helping Greece, while 44% are against. Unlike other European issues, often dominated by indifference or lack of awareness, the vast majority of those questioned expressed an opinion; only 15% did not.

Table 2. Given the difficulties that the Greek economy is facing, would you be in favour or against providing another bailout like the one provided last year?

(%)

In favour

Against

Indifferent

DK/DA

Another bailout

41.2

44.0

6.9

7.8

  • One of the decisive variables determining one’s attitude towards a Greek bailout appears to be political ideology. While among left-leaning Spaniards half approve such a measure, among conservatives it is only one of every three. So the result is 50% to 30%.

SATISFACTION OVER BIN LADEN’S DEATH

  • Political ideology again shapes opinions on another controversial issue: the killing of Osama Bin Laden.
  • A significant majority of more than half –56% to be exact– have a positive opinion of the killing of Bin Laden, a large proportion that compares to just 20% who disapprove of the US military raid in which he was killed.

Table 3. What is your opinion of the killing of Bin Laden by the US military in Pakistan?

(%)

Very good

Good

Neither good
nor bad

Bad

Very bad

DK//DA

Killing Bin Laden

21.6

33.7

14.4

13.9

8.6

7.7

  • However, while among left-leaning Spaniards 50% of those interviewed approve of the raid, there is almost unanimous support on the right of the political spectrum (80%).

OPPOSITION TO NUCLEAR ENERGY: NO FUKUSHIMA EFFECT

  • In all public opinion polls on this issue in Spain, public opinion, as in many other countries, rejects nuclear energy. But not by a crushing majority. One of every two Spaniards is against it, and one of every three is in favour. Again, the score is 50% to 30%. So there is a 20 percentage point difference between the two sides.
  • To this must be added the fact that 13% say they are indifferent. It depends how the data are interpreted, ie, whether the glass is seen to be half-empty or half-full. If the 13% were to be added to the defenders of nuclear energy, Spanish public opinion would be practically evenly divided, with 50% against and 43% in favour, to one extent or another. The 50% against is certainly irrefutable, but adding up the defenders and the undecided does point to a different scenario.

Table 4. Opinion regarding nuclear energy

(%)

Very much
in favour

Somewhat
in favour

Neither for
nor against

Somewhat
against

Very much
against

DK/DA

Nuclear energy

7.3

23.0

12.4

18.3

36.4

2.6

  • But most Spaniards, in this case one out of every two, feel that the nuclear accident in Fukushima, Japan has not changed their opinion on nuclear energy, as opposed to 36% who say that it has.

Table 5. Have the earthquake and nuclear accident in Fukushima changed your opinion on nuclear energy?

(%)

Very much so

Rather a lot

A little

Not at all

DK/DA

Changed opinion on nuclear energy

12.2

24.1

23.0

37.3

3.3

SUFFICIENT SUPPORT FOR THE MISSION IN LIBYA

  • Gaddafi is the worst-rated international leader at 1.4, a score that is a sixth of that of Obama, who has the highest approval rating.

Table 6. Ratings of public figures, on a scale of 0 to 10 (0 = very bad; 10 = very good)

 

Rating

Don’t know them

No rating

David Cameron

5.5

11.0

13.2

Nicolas Sarkozy

5.2

2.4

5.5

Barack Obama

6.7

0.9

5.3

Moammar el Gadhafi

1.4

4.0

6.8

Silvio Berlusconi

2,4

2,9

5,9

Angela Merkel

6.0

7.7

7.0

José Manuel Durao Barroso

5.3

20.5

11.4

Herman Van Rompuy

5.0

38.4

15.1

Catherine Ashton

5.1

37.3

14.1

Dominique Strauss-Kahn

2.7

22.5

10.5

  • With regard to the war in Libya between Gaddafi and rebel forces, despite the currently complex situation and the pessimism that reigns in some circles because of the stalemate in the war, most Spaniards are still optimistic. Two of every three, or 59%, think that the rebels will prevail, compared to only 13% who think victory might go to Gaddafi, a man who, as shown above in the analysis of different international leaders’ approval ratings, is not at all popular in Spain.

Table 7. Who do you think will win in Libya?

(%)

Gaddafi

Rebel forces

DK/DA

Who’ll win?

13.2

58.7

28.1

  • A total of 46% of Spaniards back the presence of Spanish troops in Libya, compared with 40% who criticise it. Therefore, there is sufficient, but not majority, support.

Table 8. Assessment of the presence of Spanish troops in…?


(%)

Very positive

Positive

Indifferent

Negative

Very negative

DK/DA

Afghanistan

4.7

42.0

9.0

35.9

4.9

3.6

Lebanon

4.5

39.5

9.9

35.3

5.4

5.4

Haiti

17.1

53.3

8.3

17.1

1.8

2.3

Indian Ocean

13.0

50.1

8.6

21.4

2.7

4.1

Libya

5.8

39.8

8.1

36.6

4.5

5.2

  • Military personnel, with a score of 6.7, and aid workers, with 7.2, are the professions with the highest approval rating among Spaniards.

THE 15-M PROTEST MOVEMENT IS NOT THE SAME AS THE ARAB SPRING

  • Politicians are at the opposite end of the ratings. With a score of 3.5 they receive half that of the military and aid workers, and are the only profession to fail the test among Spaniards. In light of these results, it is no surprise that the average Spaniard sympathises with some of the anti-political slogans of the 15-M protest movement in Spain.

Table 9. On a scale of 0 to 10, what score the following professions merit…?

 

Score

DK/DA

Military

6.7

1.5

Aid workers

7.2

2.9

Diplomats

5.3

3.8

Politicians

3.5

1.7

Businessmen

5.3

2.1

Showbiz people

5.9

3.3

  • Although the Elcano Royal Institute barometer did not survey people about the 15-M movement, other polls confirm that Spanish public opinion sympathises with the initiative, and that the support is similar to that expressed for the uprisings in Arab countries.
  • However, any similarities between the Arab Spring and the Spanish Spring stop there. The results of the BRIE indicate that for a significant majority of Spaniards –65%– there is no similarity between the uprisings by young people in Arab countries and that of Spaniards who demonstrated for weeks in the 15-M movement. Only one of every four Spaniards, or 27%, sees a similarity between the two.

Table 10. ¿Is there any similarity between the uprisings by young people in Arab countries and the protests by Spaniards that started on 15M?


(%)

Yes

No

DK/DA

Any similarity

26.6

65.3

8.0

EXPECTATIONS ABOUT THE ARAB WORLD

  • Looking specifically at perceptions of changes in the Arab world, comparing the results of this wave of the BRIE with those of the one carried out in February of this year it can be concluded that the belief that change can involve conflict has risen by more than 10 points. The conflict can be either internal, in the form of civil war, or external, such as war with neighbouring countries.
  • Perhaps even more alarming is the fact that now fewer Spaniards see light at the end of the tunnel. There has been a 15-point drop in the percentage that feels it likely that the result of the revolts will be these countries transforming into democracies. Besides quantitatively, the decline is also relevant from a qualitative point of view, since expectations of democracy drop from 50 to 35%.
  • On the positive side, it should be highlighted that now there is no greater fear of Islamic militants coming to power, which was probably very high before.

Graph 2. Probability of certain processes or results (% of ‘highly likely and ‘quite likely’)

Graph 2. Probability of certain processes or results (% of ‘highly likely and ‘quite likely’)

  • Going deeper on this last issue, of whether Islamic parties should be barred from taking part in new democracies: 38% support barring radical Islamic parties but 32% are against such a prohibition.
  • As for international support for change, there is somewhat more consensus, since 50% call for greater involvement by the international community. The percentage against is just 20%.

Table 11. Agreement or disagreement with the following statements


(%)

Very much agree

Agree

Neither agree nor disagree

Disagree

Very much disagree

DK/DA

Democratization of Arab countries is irreversible; there is no turning back

9.9

35.0

19.1

25.0

3.1

7.9

Islamic parties should be barred from taking part in new democracies

7.9

29.9

17.1

31.4

1.8

11.9

European countries should get more involved in the transformation of the Arab world

13.5

37.5

18.4

20.4

1.8

8.5

SPAIN’S SOFT POWER

  • Moving on to the various institutions entrusted with projecting Spanish culture overseas, all of them get a good score.

Table 12. On a scale of 0 to 10, what score do the following institutions merit?

 

Score

DK/DA

Overseas Cultural Action

5.6

27.1

Culture Ministry

5.3

3.8

Cervantes Institute

6.7

7.6

Spanish Cinema Academy

5.7

6.9

Royal Language Academy

7.0

3.4

Spanish Radio and Television

6.2

2.8

  • Even so, 57% think that more should be done to promote Spanish culture outside the country, compared with 38% who feel that things are satisfactory as they are.

Table 13. Does Spain do enough to promote its culture overseas?

 

Yes, it is doing a good job

No, it should do more

DK/DA

Does Spain do enough?

37.7

57.4

4.9

In what branch of culture or the arts has Spain made the largest contribution to the rest of the world? What is the main tool of Spain’s soft power? For Spaniards, in order of importance, these tools of soft Spanish power are:

  • Cinema (25%)
  • Literature (17%)
  • Architecture (11%)
  • Pop music (10%)
  • Art (5%)
  • Dance (5%)
  • ‘Serious’ music (1%)

Table 14. In what branch of the arts would you say Spain is contributing most to today’s culture at the global level?


(%)

Art

Pop Music

‘Serious’ Music

Architecture

Literature

Cine

Dance

Others

All

None

DK/DA

Branch

4.9

10.0

0.7

11.5

16.6

25.4

4.9

6.3

4.6

2.2

12.9

  • In summary, as Spain prepares to mark the 20th anniversary of 1992 Barcelona Summer Olympics, the World Expo in Seville and Madrid’s being named a European cultural capital, 90% of Spaniards say these events were good or very good for Spain’s image abroad.

Table 15. Next year marks the 20th anniversary of 1992 (EXPO in Seville and the Barcelona Olympics). How would you describe them as having been for Spain’s image overseas?


(%)

Very good

Good

Neither good nor bad

Bad

Very bad

DK/DA

Assessment

41.8

49.0

5.2

0.5

0.5

2.9

]]>
<![CDATA[ 26th edition of the BRIE (March 2011) ]]> http://www.realinstitutoelcano.org/wps/portal/rielcano_en/survey?WCM_GLOBAL_CONTEXT=/elcano/elcano_in/barometer/barometer26 2011-04-12T04:47:17Z TECHNICAL DATA
  • Universe: general Spanish population, aged 18 and over.

  • Sample size: N = 1,200 interviewees.

  • Interview methodology used: telephone (interviewee called at home).

  • Sample size: stratified, directly proportionate to the distribution of the national population, with proportionate quotas according to age and gender.

  • Sample error: ±2.9 for global data (1,200n); ±4.0 for subsamples (600n) (*), p = q = 0.5 and a confidence interval of 95.5.

  • Survey period: from 15 February to 9 March 2011.

  • Field work: Gabinete de Análisis Demoscópico (GAD).

(1) CONCERN OVER THE FINANCIAL CRISIS

  • Spaniards continue to perceive the international financial crisis as the greatest threat. Two out of every three (66%) consider it to be ‘extremely serious’. In another area of the economy, 40% of those surveyed assign the maximum level of worry to the rise in oil prices.

Graph 1. Perception of threats, percentage of those who answered ‘extremely serious’

Perception of threats, percentage of those who answered �extremely serious�

  • The crisis continues to be the problem that worries Spaniards most: 62% expressed this view, three times more than for international terrorism.

Of the following four problems, which would you say concerns you the most right now?

Graph 2. Concern for international situation

Perception of threats, percentage of those who answered ‘extremely serious’

Despite the effect that austerity measures taken by Europe and Germany have had for Spain, both are among the most highly rated institutions and countries in Spain, with a score of 6 and 6.6, respectively, on a scale of 0 to 10. But the crisis has damaged the image of economic entities, both national and international.

On a scale of 0 to 10, how do you assess the following international organisations?

Graph 3. Average rating of international organisations on a scale of 0 to 10

Graph 3. Average rating of international organisations on a scale of 0 to 10

  • The crisis is considered to be damaging for Spain’s image abroad. However, it is important to stress that the problem is limited to the economic field and to a lesser extent to the world of politics. A total of 73% of those polled believe that the image of the Spanish economy abroad is bad, while the percentage of those worried about Spain’s image in other areas such as culture or society does not even reach 20%.

Graph 4. Opinion on Spain’s image abroad in different areas, percentage of people who answered ‘good’ or ‘very good’

Opinion on Spain�s image abroad in different areas, percentage of people who answered �good� or �very good�

  • In any case, Spaniards do not think there has been an overall deterioration of their country’s image in recent times.

Graph 5. Evolution of opinion on Spain's image abroad in different areas, BRIEs 23 to 26

Evolution of opinion on Spain's image abroad in different areas, BRIEs 23 to 26

  • Although a significant percentage (62%) of Spaniards feel the overseas image of the current Spanish political scene is bad, the retrospective bottom line is still good. A total of 60% also think Spain, because of its transition from the Franco era, is a good model for Arab countries as they move towards democracy.

¿And can Spain serve as a model for those countries, on the basis of its transition from the Franco regime to democracy?

Graph 6. Can Spain be a model?

Can Spain be a model?

(2) THE TURMOIL IN THE ARAB WORLD

  • Spaniards support change in the Arab world.

How do you assess the pro-democracy reform processes in Tunisia and Egypt?

Graph 7. Assessment of democratic reform in the Arab world

Assessment of democratic reform in the Arab world

  • With regard to the fall of President Hosni Mubarak, Spaniards feel the key factor was student revolts (55%), followed by social media networks and the Internet (20%) and, thirdly, the role of the army (8%).

Graph 8. Main factors in the fall of Mubarak, percentages of ‘very much’ and ‘quite a lot’ answers

Main factors in the fall of Mubarak, percentages of �very much� and �quite a lot� answers

  • One out of every two Spaniards feels that the democratisation of Arab countries is an irreversible process.

Democratisation of Arab countries is an irreversible process. There is no turning back.

Graph 9. Democratisation is irreversible

Democratisation is irreversible

  • At the same time, there is a certain degree of reasonable uncertainty over the results and consequences.

The changes are just the beginning: there is reason to be cautious.

Graph 10. Caution is justified

Caution is justified

  • In any case, Spaniards do not think this wave of pro-democracy sentiment will reach dictatorships outside the Muslim world. A total of 70% does not think it will affect China, while 60% think it will not reach Cuba.

Do you think popular revolts like these could happen in the following countries?

Graph 11. Opinion on the probability of revolts spreading to other countries, percentage of ‘high’ and ‘rather high’ answers

Opinion on the probability of revolts spreading to other countries, percentage of �high� and �rather high� answers

  • As for the possible consequences of the revolutions in the Arab countries, for 75% of Spaniards the most evident one is massive waves of emigration. And 60% fear Islamic-based leaders will take power.

What do you think might happen as a result of the changes that have taken place so far?

Graph 12. Opinion on probability of various consequences of the uprisings, percentage of ‘high’ and ‘rather high’ answers

Opinion on probability of various consequences of the uprisings, percentage of �high� and �rather high� answers

  • In this regard, 45% of Spaniards polled agree that Islamic parties should be banned from taking part in the new Arab democracies, compared with 26% who think they should take part.

Islamist parties should be banned from taking part in politics in the new democracies.

Graph 13. Islamic parties should be banned

Islamic parties should be banned

  • Opposition to excluding Islamist parties in the new democracies is greater among leftist voters than among those on the centre-right.

Graph 14. Agreement with the idea that ‘Islamist parties should be barred from taking part in new democracies’, according to how interviewees define themselves ideologically

Agreement with the idea that �Islamist parties should be barred from taking part in new democracies�, according to how interviewees define themselves ideologically

(3) THE SITUATION IN LIBYA

  • In general, there is a positive assessment of the international community’s position towards the changes, although there are also many Spaniards who are unable to express an opinion on the West’s position.

Graph 15. Assessment of the role of various countries and international organisations, percentage of ‘positive’ and ‘very positive’ answers

Assessment of the role of various countries and international organisations, percentage of �positive� and �very positive� answers

  • A total of 59% feel that the international community should intervene in Libya to oust the Gaddafi regime and 58% also back the idea of Spain taking part if there is a UN mandate or authorisation.
  • The international community should intervene in Libya to overthrow Gaddafi
  • Spain should participate if there is a UN mandate or authorisation

Graph 16. Percentage of interviewees who agree with these statements

Percentage of interviewees who agree with these statements

(4) WIKILEAKS

  • One out of every two Spaniards (51%) expresses a positive view of the diplomatic cables made public by Wikileaks.

What is your opinion of the information coming out of Wikileaks?

Graph 17. Opinion of Wikileaks

Opinion of Wikileaks

  • Support is so firm that Wikileaks’ founder Julian Assange is the world’s third most highly rated person, with a score of 6, surpassed only by Angela Merkel (6.7) and Obama (6.6).

Graph 18. Average rating of leaders on a scale of 0 to 10

Average rating of leaders on a scale of 0 to 10

  • Most of those polled feel that Assange has revealed the shady dealings of many governments (63%), that it is good for public opinion to get to know the inner workings of diplomacy (62%), that what he is doing forces political leaders to behave in a more ethical way (55%) and that government foreign policy will become more transparent. (45%).
  • That said, 45% think the scandal has been harmful because it disclosed secrets that should not have been made public and 38% feel that a criminal offence of revealing secrets has been committed and those responsible should be prosecuted.

Graph 19. Agreement with various statements on Wikileaks

Agreement with various statements on Wikileaks

  • In any case, oddly enough the Wikileaks revelations have come as no surprise, which means that diplomacy already had an image that was not good. Half of those polled say it has not changed their way of viewing diplomacy.

To what extent has it changed the way in which you view diplomacy?

Graph 20. Has changed the way of seeing diplomacy

Has changed the way of seeing diplomacy

(5) 10 YEARS OF FOREIGN AND DEFENCE POLICY

  • Marking the 10th anniversary of the founding of the Elcano Royal Institute, this edition of BRIE features questions on the last 10 years of Spanish foreign policy.
  • For Spaniards the most important international political event was the 11 March 2004 terror attack on the Madrid commuter rail network, (40%), followed by the 11 September 2001 attacks in the US (34%). Around 10% also mention the Iraq war and the Obama Presidency.

Which is the most important event to have taken place around the world and in Spanish foreign policy in the last 10 years?

Graph 21. Most important events

Most important events

  • A total of 70% make a positive assessment of the role of the Armed Forces and the Spanish Army in the past 10 years.

How do you assess the role of the Armed Forces over the past 10 years?

Graph 22. Assessment of the Spanish Army’s role

Assessment of the Spanish Army�s role

(6) EXCELLENT ASSESSMENT OF THE ARMED FORCES

  • Along with the monarchy, the Armed Forces and the Spanish intelligence services are the most highly rated institutions for Spaniards, with a score of 6.8, around double the score given to political parties (3.8).

On a scale of 0 to 10, what score do you assign to…

Graph 23. Average assessment of institutions on a scale of 0 to 10

Average assessment of institutions on a scale of 0 to 10

  • Compared to earlier versions of the BRIE, the assessment of the presence of Spanish troops on missions such as Afghanistan has improved.

Graph 24. Evolution of assessment of the presence of Spanish troops in Afghanistan, BRIEs 13 to 26

Evolution of assessment of the presence of Spanish troops in Afghanistan, BRIEs 13 to 26

  • Up to 70% of Spaniards believe the Armed Forces are doing a good job in Haiti and the Indian Ocean.

Graph 25. Assessment of Spanish military missions abroad: percentage of ‘positive’ and ‘very positive’ answers

Assessment of Spanish military missions abroad: percentage of �positive� and �very positive� answers

]]>
<![CDATA[ 25th edition of the BRIE (November 2010) ]]> http://www.realinstitutoelcano.org/wps/portal/rielcano_en/survey?WCM_GLOBAL_CONTEXT=/elcano/elcano_in/barometer/barometer25 2011-01-17T08:54:32Z TECHNICAL DATA

  • Universe: general Spanish population, aged 18 and over.

  • Sample size: N = 1,200 interviewees.

  • Interview methodology used: telephone (interviewee called at home).

  • Sample size: stratified, directly proportionate to the distribution of the national population, with proportionate quotas according to age and gender.

  • Sample error: ±2.9 for global data (1,200n); ±4.0 for subsamples (600n) (*), p = q = 0.5 and a confidence interval of 95.5.

  • Survey period: from 28 October to 10 November 2010.

  • Field work: Gabinete de Análisis Demoscópico (GAD).

MOROCCO AND THE WESTERN SAHARA

  • With a score of 3.9 on a scale of 0 to 10, Morocco’s rating has gone down to the same level as Israel.

On a scale of 0 to 10 (0 being very negative and 10 very positive), how do you feel about the following countries?: Brazil, Germany, France, US, Argentina, Chile, Venezuela, Russia, Cuba, China, Turkey, Israel, Morocco and Iran.

Graph 1. Average assessment of countries on a scale of 0 to 10

Average assessment of countries on a scale of 0 to 10

  • A total of 80% of Spaniards feel that in Morocco human rights are not respected.

How well do you think human rights are respected in the following countries?

Graph 2. Assessment of level of respect for human rights in different countries, percentage of people responding ‘well’ and ‘rather well’

Assessment of level of respect for human rights in different countries, percentage of people responding ‘well’ and ‘rather well’

  • One of every three Spaniards (39%) says the Western Sahara should be independent.

With regard to the Western Sahara, what do you think the Spain should support?

    • The current situation
    • Independence from Morocco
    • Greater autonomy as part of Morocco

Graph 3. Western Sahara: what should Spain support?

Western Sahara: what should Spain support?

  • On a scale of 0 to 10, most Spaniards give a score of only 4 to bilateral relations with Morocco.

On the same scale of 0 to 10, how do you assess Spain’s bilateral relations with the following countries?

Graph 4. Average assessment of bilateral relations on a scale of 0 to 10

Average assessment of bilateral relations on a scale of 0 to 10

  • 36% of Spaniards believe that relations have worsened over the past year, a proportion much higher than that of people who feel relations have improved (10%).

Graph 5. Assessment of evolution of several issues in 2010, percentage of people who feel they got ‘better’

Assessment of evolution of several issues in 2010, percentage of people who feel they got ‘better’

  • As for the immediate future, only one of every five Spaniards expects an improvement in 2011.

And on each of these issues, what do you think will happen in 2011?

Graph 6. Assessment of expectations for 2011 on various issues, percentage of people who expect they ‘will improve’

Assessment of expectations for 2011 on various issues, percentage of people who expect they ‘will improve’

THE NEED FOR GREATER PRESSURE ON CUBA

  • Cuba’s image is better than Morocco’s: 4.6 on a scale of 0 to 10. However, Raúl Castro is one of the lowest-rated international leaders: 2.3 on a scale of 0 to 10.

Graph 7. Leaders: average assessment on a scale of 0 to 10

Assessment of expectations for 2011 on various issues, percentage of people who expect they ‘will improve’

  • 80% of Spaniards feel that human rights are not respected in Cuba.
  • One out of every two Spaniards says the international community should exert more pressure for Cuba to respect human rights.

Describe your opinion as to the international community’s pressure on Cuba for it to respect human rights.

Graph 8. Cuba: is international pressure sufficient?

Cuba: is international pressure sufficient?

  • In this respect, most Spaniards (50%) feel the recent release of prisoners on the island does not justify a change in EU policy so as to boost political and trade relations, compared to 31% who feel it does.

The Cuban government recently released some political prisoners. Do you feel this justifies a change in EU policy so as to increase political and trade ties?

Graph 9. Cuba: does the recent release of political prisoners justify a change in EU policy?

Cuba: does the recent release of political prisoners justify a change in EU policy?

SPAIN'S PEACE-KEEPING MISSION IN BOSNIA WAS WORTHWHILE

  • Now that the Spanish military’s mission in Bosnia has concluded, 72% of those polled have a positive opinion of it.

The Spanish military’s 18-year-long mission in Bosnia has concluded. How do you assess the role of this mission?

Graph 10. Opinion of Spanish military mission in Bosnia

Opinion of Spanish military mission in Bosnia

  • But public opinion is more divided when it comes to evaluating the cost of the mission. A total of 48% feel the sacrifice of Spanish soldiers losing their lives during the mission was not worthwhile, although 40% feel it was.

Would you say that the sacrifice made by Spanish soldiers who died in Bosnia was worthwhile?

Graph 11. Was the sacrifice of Spanish soldiers worthwhile

Was the sacrifice of Spanish soldiers worthwhile

UNCERTAINTY OVER AFGHANISTAN

  • Spaniards are divided over the presence of Spanish troops in Afghanistan: half favour keeping them there and half want them to come home.

And for each of the following missions, what do think should be done with the troop levels?

    • Increase
    • Maintain
    • Reduce
    • Withdraw completely

Graph 12. Support for complete withdrawal of Spanish troops carrying out missions abroad, percentage of responses backing ‘complete withdrawal’

Support for complete withdrawal of Spanish troops carrying out missions abroad, percentage of responses backing ‘complete withdrawal’

  • A total of 95% of those polled think the Afghanistan mission is the most dangerous of all those in which Spanish troops are engaged.

Graph 13. Perception of the degree of danger for Spanish troops involved in missions abroad, percentage of those who answered ‘very’ and ‘quite’ dangerous

Support for complete withdrawal of Spanish troops carrying out missions abroad, percentage of responses backing ‘complete withdrawal’

  • There is a clear correlation between the sense of how dangerous a mission is and support for withdrawing troops: goals notwithstanding, the more dangerous a mission is considered, the less support it enjoys.

Graph 14. Correlation between the sense of how dangerous a mission is and support for withdrawing troops

  • A total of 80% think the situation in Afghanistan is complex.

In your opinion, how is the situation now in Afghanistan?

Graph 15. How is the situation in Afghanistan now?

How is the situation in Afghanistan now?

  • 50% think the Taliban are winning, while only 16% feel that allied forces are prevailing in this conflict.

Who would you say is winning in Afghanistan?

Graph 16. Who is winning in Afghanistan

Who is winning in Afghanistan

  • In any case this does not affect the image of NATO, which is now the second most-highly rated institution by Spaniards, with a score of 5.1, surpassed only by the EU.

IMMIGRATION AND ECONOMIC CRISIS

  • Spanish public opinion is divided over President Sarkozy’s decision to expel Gypsies from France: 41% are in favour, 39% are against.

Graph 17. What is your assessment of Sarkozy’s expulsion of Gypsies from France?

What is your assessment of Sarkozy’s expulsion of Gypsies from France?

  • Sarkozy’s measure brings to light the division between the Spanish right and left, with the former clearly in favour of expulsion and the latter against.

Graph 18. Opinion on expulsion of Gypsies from France, in relation to people’s declared ideology

Opinion on expulsion of Gypsies from France, in relation to people’s declared ideology

  • In any case, most people (56%) feel that immigrants should integrate and adopt the culture and customs of Spaniards, while 35% advocate the model of different cultures and customs co-existing side by side.

Speaking of immigration, which of these two positions would you agree with more?

Graph 19. Immigration: which position do you agree with more?

Immigration: which position do you agree with more?

  • In political terms, we now find that the right mostly tends to favour assimilation as opposed to multiculturalism, while the left is divided in half between the two options.

Graph 20. Integration vs. multiculturalism, in relation to people’s declared ideology

Integration vs. multiculturalism, in relation to people’s declared ideology

  • Sixty-seven percent are against the idea of allowing Muslim girls to wear Islamic veils in state schools, a percentage that is much higher than that of those who support removing crucifixes (23%).
  • In the current economic crisis, 47% also advocate a Spaniards-first policy when it comes to giving people jobs, as opposed to giving them to foreigners.
  • Spaniards are more open to allowing foreigners to participate in elections (43%), although 34% are against this.

Now, tell me if you are in favour of or against…

Graph 21. Percentage of those polled in favour of...

Integration vs. multiculturalism, in relation to people’s declared ideology

OBAMA STILL ENJOYS SUPPORT

  • The Spanish people respect the results of the U.S. legislative elections of November. A total of 35% see the results as positive, while 24% view them as negative.

What is your assessment of the results of the US mid-term elections?

Graph 22. Assessment of the results of the US mid-term elections

Assessment of the results of the US mid-term elections

  • President Obama has not lost his aura in Spain: along with Angela Merkel of Germany, he is the international leader rated highest by the Spanish people.
  • In general, Obama gets good marks for his handling of all foreign policy issues. He is simply asked to make a greater effort to achieve peace in the Middle East and to resolve the International economic crisis.

Now that Obama has been in power for some time, can you tell me how you assess his achievements in the following areas?

Graph 23. Assessment of the achievements of the Obama Administration, percentages of ‘good’ and ‘very good’ responses

Assessment of the achievements of the Obama Administration, percentages of ‘good’ and ‘very good’ responses

WORRIES AABOUT THE CRISIS

  • The economic crisis has taken hold as the problem that worries Spaniards the most: 61% consider it a serious threat to their country.

Graph 24. Perception of threats, percentage of ‘very serious’ responses

Perception of threats, percentage of ‘very serious’ responses

  • However, most Spaniards (48%) do not think the crisis has harmed the overall image of their country, compared with 30% who do.

Graph 25. Opinion on Spain’s image abroad in different areas, percentage of ‘good’ or ‘very good’ responses

Opinion on Spain’s image abroad in different areas, percentage of ‘good’ or ‘very good’ responses

  • The percentage of Spaniards who feel the crisis has worsened has increased.

And how do you think the economic situation is going?

Graph 26. How is the economic situation?

How is the economic situation?

  • Compared with other problems, 60% choose the economic crisis, while 17% say they are most worried by international terrorism.

Of the following four problems, which would you say concerns you the most right now?

Graph 27. Which is of most concern at present?

Which is of most concern at present?

HUGO CHÁVEZ DOES NOT COOPERATE IN THE FIGHT AGAINST ETA

  • Right now Spaniards seem more worried by ETA (42%) than by international terrorism (30%).

Which do you think is a greater threat to Spain?

Graph 28. Which is the greatest threat to Spain?

Which is the greatest threat to Spain?

  • By far Hugo Chávez is the leader rated lowest by Spaniards: he gets a score of 1.7 on a 10-point scale.
  • A total of 75% of Spaniards feel the Venezuelan government is not cooperating with Spain in the fight against ETA

As for ETA members living in Venezuela, do you think Chávez is cooperating with the Spanish authorities?

Graph 29. Is Chávez cooperating on ETA?

Is Ch&aacute;vez cooperating on ETA?

THE EU'S IMAGE IS STILL GOOF

  • The crisis has not hurt the EU’s image. Among Spaniards it is the highest-rated international institution (5.5 on a scale of 0 to 10). But because of the crisis, Spaniards give failing marks to all economic organisations, be they domestic or international.

Graph 30. Average assessment of international organisations on a scale of 0 to 10

Average assessment of international organisations on a scale of 0 to 10

  • However, nearly a year after the appointment of Catherine Ashton and Herman Van Rompuy, two out of every three Spaniards do not know who they are.
  • While some negative stereotypes are growing in other countries about the EU, 60% of Spaniards continue to associate the EU with the future and the idea of progress. A similar percentage also feel that the EU is influential in the world.

Of the following sets of terms that I am going to propose, please tell me which you associate with the EU.

  • Past/future
  • Strong/weak
  • Multicultural/cultural homogeneity
  • Open/closed
  • Static/dynamic
  • Influential in the world/not influential
  • Young/old
  • Progress/tradition
  • Xenophobic/welcoming

Graph 31. Adjectives chosen to describe the EU

Adjectives chosen to describe the EU

]]>
<![CDATA[ 24th Edition of the BRIE (June 2010) ]]> http://www.realinstitutoelcano.org/wps/portal/rielcano_en/survey?WCM_GLOBAL_CONTEXT=/elcano/elcano_in/barometer/barometer24 2010-09-06T01:47:30Z TECHNICAL DATA

  • Universe: general Spanish population, aged 18 and over.

  • Sample size: N = 1,200 interviewees.

  • Interview methodology used: telephone (interviewee called at home).

  • Sample size: stratified, directly proportionate to the distribution of the national population, with proportionate quotas according to age and gender.

  • Sample error: ±2.9 for global data (1,200n); ±4.0% for sub-samples (600n), p = q = 0.5 and a confidence interval of 95.5.

  • Survey period: from 27 May to 18 June 2010.

  • Field work: Gabinete de Análisis Demoscópico (GAD).

POSITIVE ASSESSMENT OF THE EU AND THE SPANISH PRESIDENCY

  • Weighing Spain’s membership in the EU through the years, 65% of those polled think the EU has been good for Spain.

In general, in the years that have transpired since Spain joined the EU, how would you describe Spain's membership?

Graph 1. Valuation of Spain’s EU membership

Graph 1. Valuation of Spain’s EU membership

  • A smaller but still significant percentage (55%) also feel that Spain’s membership has been good for the EU.

And how has Spanish membership been for the EU?

Graph 2. For the EU, Spain’s membership has been...

For the EU, Spain’s membership has been...

  • The EU is the international organisation most highly regarded by Spaniards.

Graph 3. Average valuation of international organisations on a scale of 1 to 10

Graph 3. Average valuation of international organisations on a scale of 1 to 10

  • However, 60% of those polled show no interest in Spain’s stint as rotating President.

And how would you describe how interested you are in the Spanish presidency?

Graph 4. Interest in Spain’s EU Presidency

Graph 4. Interest in Spain’s EU Presidency

  • One of every two people polled (47%) said they followed it with the same interest as other Presidencies.

In comparison with other Presidencies, is your interest greater, lesser…?

Graph 5. Spain’s EU Presidency: degree of interest compared to other Presidencies

Graph 5. Spain’s EU Presidency: degree of interest compared to other Presidencies

  • 30% make a positive assessment of the Presidency, compared with 25% who say it went poorly. One of every two people polled is unable to express an opinion one way or the other, which is consistent with the lack of interest and awareness also shown by the survey.

Spain has held the rotating Presidency of the EU. How do you think it has gone, in general?

Graph 6. Valuation of Spain’s EU Presidency

Graph 6. Valuation of Spain’s EU Presidency

  • Judgements are clearly governed by ideology, since the valuation is higher among PSOE voters than those who back the PP.

Graph 7. Assessment of the Spanish Presidency among people who voted PSOE or PP in the 2008 general election

Graph 7. Assessment of the Spanish Presidency among people who voted PSOE or PP in the 2008 general election

  • In any case, 40% of those polled feel the Spanish Presidency was neither better nor worse than other rotating Presidencies although we do find 30% who said it was worse.

Do you think the Presidency went better or worse than others?

Graph 8. Was the Spanish EU Presidency better or worse than others?

Graph 8. Was the Spanish EU Presidency better or worse than others?

ASSESSMENT OF GERMANY

  • 75% of Spaniards feel Germany has been beneficial for the EU.

Twenty years after the fall of the Berlin Wall, how would you describe Germany’s contribution to the EU?

Graph 9. Germany’s contribution to the EU

Graph 9. Germany’s contribution to the EU

  • Germany continues to be the country most highly regarded by Spaniards.

Graph 10. Average assessment of countries on a scale of 0 to 10

Graph 10. Average assessment of countries on a scale of 0 to 10

  • Angela Merkel is the second-highest rated international leader, almost at the same level as President Barack Obama, the top-rated one, and a bit higher than third place Joaquín Almunia.

Graph 11. Average assessment of leaders on a scale of 0 to 10

Graph 11. Average assessment of leaders on a scale of 0 to 10

  • Germany has a good reputation as a country that is hard-working, reliable and pro-European. The only two negative features associated with it are that it is boring and selfish.

Graph 12. Adjectives chosen to describe Germany

Graph 12. Adjectives chosen to describe Germany

  • In any case, a majority (60%) thinks Germany acted properly in the euro crisis and the Greek debt problem.

How do you think Germany acted within European institutions to resolve the Greek crisis?

Graph 13. Germany’s action in the Greek crisis

Graph 13. Germany’s action in the Greek crisis

CRISIS

  • The international financial crisis is the main worry for Spaniards, seven times more than international terrorism.

Of the following four problems, which would you say worries you the most right now?

  • International terrorism
  • The international financial crisis
  • The situation in Afghanistan
  • Iran's nuclear programme

Graph 14. Concern over international problems

Graph 14. Concern over international problems

  • Compared to the last wave of this poll, there is an increased feeling that the crisis has worsened, confirming that in terms of perceptions the crisis has the shape of the letter W.

Graph 15. Changes in opinion on evolution of crisis, BRIE 22 to 24

Graph 15. Changes in opinion on evolution of crisis, BRIE 22 to 24

  • There has also been an increase in the perception that the crisis stems from international factors.

Graph 16. Evolution of opinions on the importance of domestic and international factors in the economic crisis in Spain, BRIE 22 to 24

Graph 16. Evolution of opinions on the importance of domestic and international factors in the economic crisis in Spain, BRIE 22 to 24

  • Probably as a result of the crisis, people’s opinion of globalisation has worsened slightly in comparison with other waves of this survey. Another consequence of the crisis might be the assessment of Spain's power in the world, which has gone down compared to earlier editions of the poll.

Graph 17. Evolution of the average assessment of the degree of influence or power that Spain wields in the world, BRIE 14 to 24

Graph 17. Evolution of the average assessment of the degree of influence or power that Spain wields in the world, BRIE 14 to 24

  • This figure contrasts with the growing power attributed to China. One of every two Spaniards thinks it will be the world’s dominant power in the 21st century.

PUBLIC SPENDING AND AUSTERITY PLANS

  • Sixty per cent of those polled accept the austerity plan that the EU imposed on Spain.

Recently, the EU forced Spain to undertake economic austerity measures because of the problems the country is facing. What do you think of this decision?

Graph 18. Opinion of austerity measures

Graph 18. Opinion of austerity measures

  • Significantly, one of every two people polled (46%) says their opinion of the plan has improved since other European countries adopted similar measures.

Several countries, such as Germany and the UK, have announced austerity plans to reduce their budget deficits. Has this improved your opinion of the Spanish austerity plan?

Graph 19. Have the German and British austerity measures improved the opinion of Spain’s austerity plan?

Graph 19. Have the German and British austerity measures improved the opinion of Spain’s austerity plan?

  • Despite this, a significant portion of Spaniards (40%) feel that for the EU, financial concerns are more important than the well-being of Europe’s citizens.

On another subject, what is more important for the EU?

  • The interest and well-being of its people
  • The interest and well-being of capital

Graph 20. What is more important for the EU: the well-being of its people or of capital?

Graph 20. What is more important for the EU: the well-being of its people or of capital?

  • Even in the current circumstances, Spaniards in general are wary of government spending cuts, except in diplomatic services and embassies. Most Spaniards prefer to maintain current spending levels in defence, promoting Spanish culture abroad and development aid. This pattern of demands for stable public spending in these areas of foreign policy contrasts with pressure for more investment in education. Two out every three Spaniards would like to see more spending in this area.

For the following areas, tell me if you support increasing, maintaining or decreasing government spending levels:

  • Diplomatic services and embassies
  • Defence and armed forces
  • Promoting Spanish culture abroad
  • Development aid
  • Education

Graph 21. Opinion on whether government spending in certain areas should be increased, maintained or decreased

Graph 21. Opinion on whether government spending in certain areas should be increased, maintained or decreased

  • All in all, there has been a clear change in attitudes, as over time there is increased acceptance of cuts in spending on defence and overseas diplomacy, and to a lesser extent in development aid. Again, these changes contrast with the stable level of opposition to cuts in education.

Graph 22. Evolution of demand for cuts in public spending, BRIE 14 to 24

Graph 22. Evolution of demand for cuts in public spending, BRIE 14 to 24

IMMIGRATION

  • An acute perception of the economic crisis is probably behind the fact that 45% of those polled feel that Spaniards should take precedence over foreigners when it comes to getting jobs in Spain, although 31% think they should not.
  • On political issues, 42% back the idea of letting foreigners vote in Spanish elections, compared with 35% who are opposed.
  • A significant percentage of Spaniards say they are against letting Muslim girls wear head veils in state schools: now the proportion is two out of every three (60%).
  • But only one out of every three (30%) say they oppose displaying crucifixes in state schools. There is no majority opinion, however, as only 34% say they are in favour of letting them be displayed and another third of those polled say they are indifferent on the issue.

Graph 23. Level of agreement with certain statements on immigration

Graph 23. Level of agreement with certain statements on immigration

  • The percentage of people who reject the Islamic veil has grown significantly over time. Certainly, news that some city and regional governments have banned them has something to do with this shift in opinion. In any case, with crucifixes, approval has also dropped 12 points. So it seems there is growing a consistency on keeping religion out of state schools.

Graph 24. Evolution of degree of acceptance of Muslim girls wearing head veils and crucifixes being displayed in state schools, BRIE 14 and 24

Graph 24. Evolution of degree of acceptance of Muslim girls wearing head veils and crucifixes being displayed in state schools, BRIE 14 and 24

  • We find clear differences between PSOE and PP voters on these issues, always in the same vein: conservatives are more intolerant with immigration than progressives.

Graph 25. Conservative vs progressive opinions on immigration

Graph 25. Conservative vs progressive opinions on immigration

ISRAEL

  • After Israel's attack on an aid flotilla bound for Gaza, Israel's image has fallen nearly two points to practically the same level as Iran, the lowest regarded country.

Graph 26. Evolution of the assessment of Israel (27 May to 18 June) on a scale of 0 to 10

Graph 26. Evolution of the assessment of Israel (27 May to 18 June) on a scale of 0 to 10

  • 75% of Spaniards feel that the international community should take some kind of measures against Israel.

After the Israeli attack on the “Peace Flotilla”, do you think the International Community should take some kind of measures against Israel?

Graph 27. Should measures be taken against Israel?

Graph 27. Should measures be taken against Israel?

MILITARY MISSIONS ABROAD

  • There continues to be an excellent assessment of Spanish armed forces missions overseas. In the case of Afghanistan and Lebanon, the valuation is generally positive although there is also a high percentage of negative responses due to the dangerous nature of these missions. Those most highly regarded are the ones perceived to be least dangerous to the troops, such as the deployments in Bosnia, Haiti and the Indian Ocean.

Graph 28. Assessment of Spanish military missions abroad: percentage of ‘positive’ and ‘very positive’ responses

Graph 28. Assessment of Spanish military missions abroad: percentage of ‘positive’ and ‘very positive’ responses

]]>
<![CDATA[ 23rd Edition of the BRIE (March 2010) ]]> http://www.realinstitutoelcano.org/wps/portal/rielcano_en/survey?WCM_GLOBAL_CONTEXT=/elcano/elcano_in/barometer/barometer23 2010-04-20T02:07:11Z TECHNICAL DATA

  • Universe: general Spanish population, aged 18 and over.

  • Sample size: N = 1,200 interviewees.

  • Interview methodology used: telephone (interviewee called at home).

  • Sample size: stratified, directly proportionate to the distribution of the national population, with proportionate quotas according to age and gender.

  • Sample error: ±3% for global data (1,200n); ±4.0% for sub-samples (600n), p = q = 0.5 and a confidence interval of 95.5.

  • Survey period: from 25 February to 10 March.

  • Field work: Gabinete de Análisis Demoscópico (GAD).

INCREASE IN SUPPORT FOR OVERSEAS MISSIONS BY THE ARMED FORCES

  • Missions carried out overseas by the Armed Forces enjoy broad support, especially in the case of Operation Atalanta.

How do you view the presence of Spanish troops in...?

  • Very positive
  • Positive
  • Negative
  • Very negative

Graph 1. Assessment of overseas missions by the Spanish military: percentages of positive (‘very positive’ or ‘positive’) answers and negative (‘negative’ or ‘very negative’) answers

Graph 1. Assessment of overseas missions by the Spanish military: percentages of positive (‘very positive’ or ‘positive’) answers and negative (‘negative’ or ‘very negative’) answers

  • In recent months support has increased for overseas missions, in particular the one in Afghanistan.

Graph 2. Evolution of the assessment of the presence of Spanish troops in Afghanistan, BRIE 13 to 23

Graph 2. Evolution of the assessment of the presence of Spanish troops in Afghanistan, BRIE 13 to 23

CRITICICISM OF VENEZUELA AND CUBA

  • One of every two Spaniards (45%) thinks there are links between Venezuelan President Hugo Chávez and ETA.

Do you think Hugo Chávez has collaborated with ETA?

Graph 3. Has Hugo Chávez collaborated with ETA?

Graph 3. Has Hugo Ch&aacute;vez collaborated with ETA?

  • There has been a major decline in people’s assessment of Chávez, by half a point in the past year.

Graph 4. Evolution in the average rating of Hugo Chávez, BRIE 15 to 23

Graph 4. Evolution in the average rating of Hugo Ch&aacute;vez, BRIE 15 to 23

  • Chávez is now the lowest-rated international leader, earning a score of 2 on a scale running from 0 to 10. However, Spaniards still think highly of Venezuela. Its rating as a country is much higher than that of Iran or Israel, the countries that received the lowest scores from Spaniards.

Graph 5. Average rating of leaders on a scale of 0 to 10

Graph 5. Average rating of leaders on a scale of 0 to 10

  • Raúl Castro, with a score of 2.6, joins Chávez in this group of lowest-rated leaders.
  • It is also significant that most Spaniards –72%– do not feel the international community’s pressure on Cuba over human rights is sufficient.

In your opinion, is the pressure that the international community exerts on Cuba to respect human rights sufficient or insufficient?

Graph 6. Is the pressure that the international community exerts on Cuba...?

Graph 6. Is the pressure that the international community exerts on Cuba...?

  • The percentage of those in favour of stepping up pressure is somewhat greater among conservative voters than among those on the left: 78% compared with 67%. But both call for more pressure.

Graph 7. Opinion on international pressure on Cuba over its human rights record, by how people describe themselves ideologically

Graph 7. Opinion on international pressure on Cuba over its human rights record, by how people describe themselves ideologically

THE US

  • On the opposite extreme from Chávez and Castro, Barack Obama continues to be the highest-rated leader.
  • Few of those interviewed –only 18%– believe Obama skipped the EU-US summit in Madrid because of Spain’s poor image. The largest percentage (33%) think it was because of his domestic agenda in the US. A total of 25% think it is because he has no interest in Europe.

Obama has decided to drop plans to attend an EU-US summit in Madrid in May. What do you think was behind this decision?

  • US domestic issues
  • He is not interested in Europe
  • Spain´s image

Graph 8. Why did Obama decide not to attend an EU-US summit?

Graph 8. Why did Obama decide not to attend an EU-US summit?

  • In general most of those polled (68%) feel that relations between Europe and the US are better now than when Bush was in power.

In your opinion, how are relations between Europe and the US since Barack Obama took power.

  • They have improved
  • They are the same as when Bush was President
  • They have worsened

Graph 9. Are US-EU relations better or worse?

Graph 9. Are US-EU relations better or worse?

EUROPE AND THE SPANISH EU PRESIDENCY

  • A total of 34% believe the Spanish Presidency of the EU is going well, compared with 23% that view it negatively.

Spain now holds the EU's rotating Presidency. How do you think the Spanish Presidency is going?

  • Very well
  • Well
  • Badly
  • Very badly

Graph 10. How is the Spanish EU Presidency going?

Graph 10. How is the Spanish EU Presidency going?

  • Although the Presidency is considered to have positive effects for Spain and the EU, one of every two Spaniards (49%) say they are not very interested in it.

How interested would you say you are in the Presidency?

  • Very much so
  • Quite
  • Not very interested
  • Not at all

Graph 11. How interested are you in the EU Presidency?

Graph 11. How interested are you in the EU Presidency?

  • Only one of every five people polled say they are more interested in the Spanish Presidency than in earlier ones held by other countries.

In comparison to other Presidencies, is your interest greater, lesser…?

Graph 12. Compared to other Presidencies, is your interest...?

Graph 12. Compared to other Presidencies, is your interest...?

  • A majority of 65% feel it is appropriate that the EU has forced Greece to adopt austerity measures.

The EU recently obliged Greece to take austerity measures to address its economic problems. How do you view this decision?

  • Very good
  • OK
  • Bad
  • Very bad

Graph 13. How do you view the decision to impose austerity measures on Greece?

Graph 13. How do you view the decision to impose austerity measures on Greece?

  • However, continuing with the EU economy, 57% think the Euro has been an impediment to battling the crisis.

Let’s now talk about the international economic crisis. How do you think the Euro performed in addressing the crisis?

  • It helped
  • It hurt

Graph 14. Did the Euro help?

Graph 14. Did the Euro help?

  • One of every two Spaniards (48%) feel the single European currency has been bad for Spain, probably because public opinion still associates it with higher prices.

Please tell me to what extent you agree with the following statements

  • The introduction of the Euro has been good for Spain.
  • Countries that do not meet EU criteria should be expelled from the Euro Zone.
  • European countries should come to the aid of fellow EU members if they have problems.

Graph 15. Agreement or disagreement with several statements on the EU and the Euro, percentages of ‘agree’ and ‘disagree’ responses

Graph 15. Agreement or disagreement with several statements on the EU and the Euro, percentages of ‘agree’ and ‘disagree’ responses

  • Social class influenced people’s opinion on the Euro: the percentage of positive ratings goes from 37% among the lower and lower-middle classes to 55% among the upper and upper-middle classes.

Graph 16. Assessment of the euro and social class: % of positive rating

Graph 16. Assessment of the euro and social class: % of positive rating

ECONOMIC CRISIS

  • A total of 55% feel that overseas the image of the Spanish economy is bad. A total of 46% believe that the image of Spanish policy is also bad. However, 56% think that the overall image of Spain abroad is good. The percentage goes up to more than 70% when people are asked about Spanish culture (73%) or Spanish society (71%).

What do you think of the image of...

  • Spain in general overseas...
  • The Spanish economy overseas...
  • Spanish culture overseas...
  • Spanish policy overseas...
  • Spanish society overseas...

Graph 17. Opinion on the overseas image of Spain in different areas: percentages of ‘good’ and ‘very good’ responses

Graph 17. Opinion on the overseas image of Spain in different areas: percentages of ‘good’ and ‘very good’ responses

  • The crisis is still the problem that worries Spaniards the most. A total of 64% are concerned, compared with just 17% who cite international terrorism as the problem that worries them most.

Of the following four problems, which one would you say worries you the most right now?

  • International terrorism
  • The international financial crisis
  • Iran’s nuclear programme
  • The situation in Afghanistan

Graph 18. Which is most worrying?

Graph 18. Which is most worrying?

  • As a way to overcome the international financial crisis, 40% would support a tax on international financial transactions or the creation of a single world currency. A total of 70% back the idea of strengthening the role of international financial organisations.

I am now going to read you a series of measures that have been proposed in the current world economic situation. Tell me what you think of each of them…

  • A tax on international financial transactions
  • Creating a single world currency (like the Euro, but for the entire world)
  • Nationalising banks
  • Cutting government spending
  • Strengthening the role of international organisations

Graph 19. Agreement or disagreement with several statements on the financial crisis in Spain: % of ‘agree’ and ‘very much agree’ responses

Graph 19. Agreement or disagreement with several statements on the financial crisis in Spain: % of ‘agree’ and ‘very much agree’ responses

HAITI AND INTERNATIONAL COOPERATION

  • A total of 60% feel the international aid that Haiti is receiving is adequate, a percentage that goes up to 73% in the case of assistance from Spain.

With regard to Haiti, what do you think of the international assistance it is receiving?

  • Sufficient/good
  • Insufficient/poor

Graph 20. Is international assistance to Haiti...?

Graph 20. Is international assistance to Haiti...?

  • Two out of every three Spaniards feel that the work done by well-known public figures to defend humanitarian causes or human rights is important.

How would you describe the role of public figures in achieving the goals of these humanitarian causes and working to defend human rights?

  • Very important
  • Quite important
  • Not very important
  • Not important at all

Graph 21. Is the role of public figures...?

raph 21. Is the role of public figures...?

  • Nelson Mandela or Kofi Annan are the highest rated, and joining them in that group is Spain’s Queen Sofia.

I am going to read you a list of public figures known for their defence of humanitarian causes or human rights at the international level. Please assign them a score of 0 to 10 for the degree of commitment you think they have to these causes.

Graph 22. Figures' average rating on a scale of 0 to 10

Graph 22. Figures' average rating on a scale of 0 to 10

COPENHAGEN AND CLIMATE CHANGE

  • Spaniards are worried about the threat of climate change, raised to the level of other issues. A total of 90% consider it an important threat and half of these people feel it is a very important threat.

Graph 23. Perception of threats: % of ‘very important threat’ responses

Graph 23. Perception of threats: % of ‘very important threat’ responses

  • The vast majority think global warming is taking place and humanity is responsible, so the percentage of Spanish ‘deniers’ is minimal, although one of every two thinks international organisations may have been too alarmist.

Graph 24. Agreement or disagreement with various statements on climate change:  percentages of ‘in agreement’ and ‘very much in agreement’ responses

Graph 24. Agreement or disagreement with various statements on climate change: percentages of ‘in agreement’ and ‘very much in agreement’ responses

  • Against this backdrop, it should come as no surprise that one out of every two Spaniards is disappointed by the results of the climate change summit in Copenhagen.

How do you assess the results of the Climate Change Summit in Copenhagen?

  • Very good
  • Good
  • Bad
  • Very bad

Graph 25. Have the results of the Climate Change Summit in Copenhagen been...?

Graph 25. Have the results of the Climate Change Summit in Copenhagen been...?

]]>
<![CDATA[ 22nd Edition of the BRIE (November 2009) ]]> http://www.realinstitutoelcano.org/wps/portal/rielcano_en/survey?WCM_GLOBAL_CONTEXT=/elcano/elcano_in/barometer/barometer22 2010-01-13T04:16:05Z TECHNICAL DATA

First Wave

  • Universe: general Spanish population, aged 18 and over.
  • Sample size: N = 1,200 interviewees.
  • Interview methodology used: telephone (interviewee called at home).
  • Sample size: stratified, directly proportionate to the distribution of the national population, with proportionate quotas according to age and sex.
  • Sample error: ±3% for global data (1,200n); ±4.0% for sub-samples (600n), p = q = 0.5 and a confidence interval of 95.5%.
  • Survey period: from 23 October to 5 November 2009.
  • Field work: Gabinete de Análisis Demoscópico (GAD).

Second Wave

  • Universe: general Spanish population, aged 18 and over.
  • Sample size: N = 603 interviewees.
  • Interview methodology used: telephone (interviewee called at home).
  • Sample size: stratified, directly proportionate to the distribution of the national population, with proportionate quotas according to age and sex.
  • Sample error: ±4.0%, p = q = 0.5 and a confidence interval of 95.5%.
  • Survey period: from 23 to 25 November 2009.
  • Field work: Gabinete de Análisis Demoscópico (GAD).

SATISFACTION WITH THE OUTCOME OF THE ALAKRANA HIJACKING

  • Most Spaniards, 60%, are satisfied with the outcome of the hijacking of the tuna-trawler Alakrana in waters off Somalia, compared with 34% who are not.

With regard to the hijacking and release of the tuna-trawler Alakrana, are you satisfied with the outcome?

Graph 1. Satisfaction at the outcome of the Alakrana hijacking

.

  • Among people who vote for the Popular Party (PP), the proportion of those who are not very satisfied or not satisfied at all is 55%, 36 points lower than among those who support the Socialist Party (PSOE), 75% of whom say they are satisfied with the outcome.

Graph 2. Satisfaction with the outcome of the Alakrana crisis, recalling voting proportions in the general election of 2008

BRIE

  • In general, 53% of Spaniards believe that with this kind of hijacking the best thing to do is negotiate, and pay ransom if necessary.

  • On the other hand, 24% oppose negotiating and say force should be used if necessary.

With a kidnapping of this kind, what do you think is the best thing to do?

  • Negotiate and pay ransom, if necessary

  • Do not negotiate, and use force if necessary

Graph 3. The best course of action in a kidnapping

.

  • In general, the overriding idea is that the ordeal did not have a negative impact on Spain’s image. One of every two Spaniards, or 61%, think that in the wake of the hijacking and release of the Alakrana, Spain’s image is the same as or better than before. Only 32% feel the country’s image is now worse.

With the outcome of the Alakrana crisis, do you think Spain’s image is better, the same, or worse than it was before?

Graph 4. Is Spain’s image better or worse?

.

  • Whereas 65% of supporters of the PP believe Spain’s image was harmed, for most PSOE backers it was not. A total of 23% of them even think Spain’s image was enhanced.

Graph 5. Opinion on Spain’s image abroad after the Alakrana ordeal, recalling vote in Spanish general election

.

  • As for the threat posed by pirates in the future, now that Spanish vessels fishing in the Indian Ocean carry armed security guards aboard, opinions differ. A total of 48% think it unlikely there will be more hijackings, but 43% feel there might be.

Now that Spanish ships are going to start carrying security guards, do you think it is likely there will be more hijackings in the Indian Ocean?

Graph 6. Likelihood of more hijackings

.

  • What all Spaniards do agree on with regard to the hijackings that are taking place is the need for the international anti-piracy mission in the Indian Ocean, known as Operation Atalanta. A total of 59% feel it should be ‘extended and strengthened’. Only 11% would do away with it.

In light of the hijackings that are taking place, what should be done with the Atalanta mission?

Graph 7. What should be done with Atalanta?

.

EXCELLENT ASSESSMENT OF OVERSEAS MISSIONS

  • Right now, the Atalanta mission against piracy in the Indian Ocean is the one that receives the best evaluation from Spaniards: 55% have a positive opinion of it, as opposed to 30% who have a negative assessment.

What is your opinion of the presence of Spanish troops in…?

  • Very positive

  • Positive

  • Negative

  • Very negative

Graph 8. Percentage of positive and very positive evaluations

.

  • Twenty years after Spanish military forces began taking part in overseas missions, the vast majority of Spaniards –74%– hold a very positive opinion of the role played by Spain, as opposed to only 12% who have a negative opinion.

Spain is celebrating the 29th anniversary of its troops’ first taking part in international missions abroad. How do you assess the role they have played all these years?

  • Very positive

  • Positive

  • Negative

  • Very negative

Graph 9. Role played by Spanish peacekeeping forces

.

CONCERN OVER AFGHANISTAN AND PAKISTAN

  • As for the mission in Afghanistan, those who advocate bringing home Spain’s troops are still a minority: 41%, compared with 52% who feel the mission should continue.

Graph 10. Presence of Spanish troops in Aghanistan

.

  • Whether or not people support sending troops on overseas missions stems from their perception of danger, which varies greatly from one assignment to another. In the case of Afghanistan 90% of those polled feel it is ‘very’ or ‘quite’ dangerous. The percentage drops to 83% for Lebanon, 73% for the Indian Ocean and 65% for Bosnia.

How much danger is involved for Spanish troops taking part in the following missions?

  • A lot

  • Quite a bit

  • Little

  • None at all

Graph 11. Percentage of interviewees who feel the mission is very or quite dangerous

.

  • Other factors also come into play. Before the second round of the Afghan elections was cancelled, 70% of those interviewed felt that the elections were not decisive for the country’s stability.

Do you think that the new elections in Afghanistan will be decisive for stabilising the situation in that country?

  • Very much so

  • Rather

  • Not much

  • Not at all

Graph 12. Will the new Afghan elections be decisive for stabilising the country?

.

  • The overall opinion is pessimistic: 90% feel the situation in the country is bad.

In your opinion, how is the situation now in Afghanistan?

  • Very good

  • Good

  • Bad

  • Very bad

Graph 13. The situation in Afghanistan

.

  • The interviewees also expressed concern over the situation in Pakistan. Again, 90% think it is bad.

How do you evaluate the situation in Pakistan?

  • Very good

  • good

  • bad

  • very bad

Graph 14. The situation in Pakistan

.

  • Seventy percent think the current offensive against the Taliban in the north of the country will not solve the country’s problems.

Do you think Pakistan’s offensive against the Taliban will manage to stabilise the country?

  • Much

  • Rather a lot

  • Not much

  • Not at all

Graph 15. Will the offensive against the Taliban help stabilise Pakistan

.

  • Sixty-three percent feel there is a real danger of Pakistan’s nuclear weapons falling into the hands of the Taliban.

Do you think there is a danger of Pakistan’s nuclear weapons falling into the hands of the Taliban and posing a threat for its neighbours and for the West?

Graph 16. Can Pakistan’s nuclear weapons fall into the hands of the Taliban?

.

OBAMA’S HONEYMOON

  • The vast majority of Spaniards think their country’s relations with the US are now good or very good: 71%, compared with just 3% who feel they are in a poor state. We can conclude that Spaniards now view the US as an ally, even more so than neighbouring countries such as France and Germany. This is the most important change in view ever recorded by the Barometer.

How do you assess Spain’s bilateral relations with these countries?

Graph 17. Spain’s bilateral relations

.

  • Still, one of every two Spaniards is against taking in prisoners from Guantanamo Bay, compared with 29% who are in favour.

Do you agree or disagree with the idea of Spain taking in inmates from the prison at Guantanamo Bay?

Graph 18. Should Spain take Guantanamo prisoners?

.

  • Obama continues to be enormously popular in Spain. He is the top-rated world leader.

Graph 19. Ratings of world leaders

.

  • However, those who think that his having been awarded the Nobel peace prize was unfair (48%) outnumber those who think it was a correct decision (35%).

The Nobel peace prize was recently awarded to US President Barak Obama. How you do view this decision?

  • Very fair

  • Fair

  • Unfair

  • Very unfair

Graph 20. Was President Obama’s Nobel Peace Prize...?

.

EVALUATION OF 2009 AND EXPECTATIONS FOR 2010

  • Although nearly 80% of those interviewed feel the international situation is now bad, one of every two Spaniards expect it to improve.

Looking to the future, however, optimism is the dominant sentiment: one of every two interviewees says the situation will get better.

And with regard to the future, will it improve, worsen or stay the same?

  • Improve

  • Worsen

  • Stay the same

Graph 21. Will the situation...?

.

If we compare this with the latest data, we observe a trend towards greater optimism, which is probably due to the ‘Obama effect’.

Graph 22. Evolution of how the international situation is viewed, BRIEs 8 to 22

.

  • 68% of Spaniards feel that relations with the US have improved greatly over the past year, the period that coincides with the Obama Presidency. This is the area of Spanish foreign policy in which there has been the most significant change in 2009.

Compared to 2009, do you think each of the following issues have improved or worsened?

  • Spain’s influence in the EU

  • Relations between Spain and the US

  • Illegal immigration bound for Spain

  • Relations between Spain and Morocco

  • Relations between Spain and Venezuela

  • The threat of international terrorism

Graph 23. Percentage of interviewees who feel the issue has improved

.

  • As for expectations for the future, the factor expected to generate the biggest change is ratification of the Treaty of Lisbon, although, before the Czech Republic lifted its veto, one of every two Spaniards considered it unlikely the treaty would be ratified.


OPTIMISM OVER THE CRISIS

  • Spaniards continue to view the international financial crisis as the biggest threat, ahead of terrorism and, trailing far behind, swine flu.

In a list of possible threats to Spanish interests, which do you see as extremely grave?

Graph 24. Percentage of interviewees that consider threat to be ‘extremely grave’

.

  • In fact, when asked to identify the problem that worries them most out of a group of four (international terrorism, the economic crisis, Afghanistan and swine flu), the ratio between the economic crisis and international terrorism is 3 to 1.

Of the following four problems, which would you say worries you the most?

  • International terrorism

  • The international financial crisis

  • Swine flu

  • The situation in Afghanistan

Graph 25. Most worrying problem

.

  • However, all signs are that the opinion trend with regard to the crisis is changing, since 53% of Spaniards now think the economic situation is improving, compared with just 17% who feel it is getting worse.

How would you say the international financial crisis is going: is it improving, getting worse…?

Graph 26. The financial crisis is...?

.

THE SPANISH EU PRESIDENCY OF 2010

  • The fight against the crisis is the goal that Spaniards see as the top priority for the Spanish EU Presidency in the first six months of 2010.

Spain has proposed a series of goals for its EU Presidency in 2010. What do you think of these issues?

  • Gender equality

  • Strengthening relations with the US

  • Addressing the financial crisis

Graph 27. Importance of issues

.

  • Compared to the previous wave of the Barometer, the percentage of interviewees who knew that Spain will lead the EU in the first half of 2010 has gone up 20 points.

Graph 28. Evolution of awareness that Spain holds the EU Presidency in the first half of 2010, BRIEs 20 to 22

.

  • The Spanish Presidency stirs more interest than other events in 2010, such as the British general elections or the World Cup in South Africa, even though football is hugely popular in Spain.

These events will take place in 2010: can you tell me which interests you most?

  • The World Cup in South Africa

  • The Spanish EU Presidency

  • The Holy Year of Saint James

  • The British general elections

Graph 29. Degree of interest in...?

.

A NEW CHANCE FOR MADRID TO STAGE THE OLYMPIC GAMES

  • Fifty-five percent of Spaniards accept the decision of the International Olympic Committee and think it is alright that Rio de Janeiro was elected to host the games in 2016.

  • But there is no doubt about support for Madrid’s candidacy, as 68% of those polled think the city should bid to hold the 2020 Games.

Do you think Madrid should try again and bid to hold the Olympic Games in 2020?

Graph 30. Should Madrid bid for the 2020 Olympic Games?

.

SCEPTICISM OVER INTERNATIONAL REACTION TO CLIMATE CHANGE

  • Global warming is one of the international problems that worry Spaniards most. For 56%, it is a very serious problem.

  • However, before Obama announced he would get more involved in the issue, Spaniards were wary of how much of a priority the problem was for world leaders. A total of 63% thought that at the climate change summit in Copenhagen measures to fight the problem would be put off.

A climate-change summit will soon be held. Do you think measures to address the problem will be taken immediately, or that they will be postponed?

Graph 31. Result of the climate-change summit

.

]]>
<![CDATA[ 21st Edition of the BRIE (July 2009) ]]> http://www.realinstitutoelcano.org/wps/portal/rielcano_en/survey?WCM_GLOBAL_CONTEXT=/elcano/elcano_in/barometer/barometer21 2009-02-17T11:38:29Z TECHNICAL DATA

  • Universe: general Spanish population, age 18 and over.
  • Sample size: N = 1,000 interviewees.
  • Interview methodology used: telephone (interviewee called at home).
  • Sample size: stratified, directly proportionate to the distribution of the national population with proportionate quotas according to age and sex.
  • Sample error: ±3.1% for global data (1,000n); ±4.4% for sub-samples (500n), p = q = 0.5 and a confidence interval of 95.5%.
  • Survey period: from 19 June to 3 July 2009.
  • Field work: Gabinete de Análisis Demoscópico (GAD).

INTERNATIONAL FINANCIAL CRISIS

  • The international financial crisis continues to be the greatest concern for Spaniards. Half of respondents identify this as the greatest threat facing Spain at present.

Graph 1. Issues of concern

Issues of concern

  • But nearly half believe that it will not get worse and that the situation has stabilised, while 17% think it is beginning to improve. Only 30% believe it has worsened.

How would you describe the current international financial crisis?

- Continues to get worse and is deepening
- Getting neither worse nor better; not changing
- The situation is getting better

Graph 2. Opinion on the international financial crisis

Opinion on the international financial crisis

  • In the current context of crisis, Spaniards are not demanding cuts in public spending, but rather continuity, with increases in social spending, as well as the promotion of Spanish culture abroad.

Table 1. Opinion on public spending


(%)

Less

Same

More

DK/NA

Development aid and cooperation

7.5

43.0

43.5

6.0

Defence and Armed Forces

27.0

51.2

17.0

4.8

Diplomatic services and embassies

34.2

45.9

14.8

5.1

Promotion of Spanish culture abroad

6.6

35.1

53.2

5.1

Pensions

0.5

16.2

79.1

4.2

Education

1.4

12.9

81.8

3.9

  • Returning to threats, although international terrorism is perceived as one of the main dangers, a majority of respondents (53%) now identify ETA as the greatest threat facing Spain, versus only 18% who point to international terrorism.

In your opinion, what is the greatest threat facing Spain?

- ETA
- International terrorism

Graph 3. Threats facing Spain

Threats facing Spain

BOTTOM RANKINGS FOR AHMADINEJAD AND BERLUSCONI

  • Spaniards also fear the possibility that Iran might develop nuclear weapons. 40% consider this a threat to Spain. This, plus the regime’s suppression of the opposition in the recent elections, has left Ahmadinejad with an approval rating of 2.6 points, one of the lowest rankings among world leaders.

Graph 4. Average rating of leaders on a scale of 0 to 10

Average rating of leaders on a scale of 0 to 10 

  • It is also significant that Berlusconi’s low score makes him the European leader with the lowest approval rating among Spaniards.
  • Here we observe Berlusconi’s deteriorating image, undoubtedly linked to the scandals that have come to the attention of international public opinion in recent weeks.

Graph 5. Berlusconi’s average rating, BRIE 18 to 21

Berlusconi�s average rating, BRIE 18 to 2

  • However, Berlusconi is also the most polarising figure, since he has a much higher approval rating among respondents on the right than on the left, with a difference of nearly two points.

Graph 6. Approval rates for world leaders

Approval rates for world leaders

G-8 AND SPAIN’S POWER

  • Still in Italy, but moving on to the G-8 Summit, most Spaniards (54%) have a positive opinion of Spain’s presence at the leaders meeting.

What is your opinion of Spain’s presence at the G-8 Summit in L’Aquila (Italy)?

Graph 7. Opinion of Spain’s presence at the G-8 Summit

Opinion of Spain�s presence at the G-8 Summit

  • Spain has less power and influence in the world than the countries around her, including Italy, France and Germany. However, Spaniards consider themselves ahead of Poland, Brazil and India.

Compared to the following countries, is Spain much less, less, equally, more or much more influential?

Graph 8. Percentage who responded that ‘Spain is much less influential or less influential than…’

Percentage who responded that �Spain is much less influential or less influential than��

  • Consequently, 76% would like Spain to be more influential in the world.

Which of the following statements do you agree with most?

- Spain’s influence in the world is fine as it is now.
- Spain should have more power in the world.

Graph 9. Spain’s influence in the world

Spain�s influence in the world

IRAQ AND THE US

  • Regarding the influence of the US in the world, 72% of Spaniards have a positive opinion of the US superpower –the highest percentage registered since the Barometer was launched in 2002–.

What is your opinion of the US as a country?

Graph 10. Opinion of the US

Opinion of the US

  • This figure is obviously related to the excellent popular opinion of President Obama, who, as we have seen, is the world leader with the highest approval rating.
  • 67% of respondents approve of the beginning of the withdrawal of US troops from Iraq.

What is your opinion of the withdrawal of US troops from Iraq?

Graph 11. Opinion of the withdrawal of US troops from Iraq

Opinion of the withdrawal of US troops from Iraq

  • However, 60% oppose cooperating with the US by taking prisoners from Guantánamo.

Do you approve or disapprove of bringing prisoners from Guantánamo to Spain?

Graph 12. Accepting prisoners from Guantánamo

Accepting prisoners from Guant�namo

  • Unlike in the UK, where the Brown government has approved the creation of a commission to investigate the country’s entry into the Iraq War, most Spaniards (42%) do not want a similar commission to be created, versus 35% who do. This indicates that Spaniards are not showing a vindictive attitude.

British Prime Minister Gordon Brown has announced that a commission has been established to investigate the UK’s participation in the Iraq War. Would you be in favour of establishing one in Spain to investigate its own participation?

Graph 13. Should Spain’s participation in the Iraq war be investigated?

Should Spain�s participation in the Iraq war be investigated?

  • Nevertheless, within the general consensus that a commission is unnecessary in Spain, PSOE voters favour it more than PP voters: 42% vs 24%.

Graph 14. Opinion on the establishment of a commission to investigate Spain’s participation in the Iraq War, according to the reported vote in the 2008 general elections

Opinion on the establishment of a commission to investigate Spain�s participation in the Iraq War, according to the reported vote in the 2008 general elections

EUROPE

  • Perhaps due to the effects of the Iraq War, Spaniards are not convinced that Tony Blair would hypothetically be a good candidate for European President. He would receive the support of only 23%, while 30% would vote against him.

Would you be in favour or against the election of Blair as EU President if the Lisbon Treaty is approved?

Graph 15. Opinion of Tony Blair as possible EU President

Opinion of Tony Blair as possible EU President

  • Clearly, Spaniards prefer Felipe González, supported by 43% of respondents.

And Felipe González?

Graph 16. Opinion of Felipe González as EU President

Opinion of Felipe Gonz�lez as EU President

  • Continuing with Europe, in Spain the European Parliament received one of the highest approval ratings.

I shall read you a list of institutions. Please give each one a score of 0 to 10, based on the work they do:

Graph 17. Approval ratings for institutions

Approval ratings for institutions

  • Regarding the victory of centre-right parties in the latest European elections, 41% believe this has to do with domestic and temporary factors, while only 30% attribute it to an ideological crisis of the left.

Centre-right parties won the elections in Europe as a whole. Do you think the European left is in a general crisis or does this reflect temporary problems that respond to domestic factors?

Graph 18. Causes of the rise of centre-right parties in Europe

Causes of the rise of centre-right parties in Europe

  • The opinion on the rise of radical parties is similar. Most respondents (54%) think they will not become consolidated as a political option in the European Parliament.

Extreme left- and right-wing parties have entered the European Parliament in these elections. Do you think these radical parties will become consolidated and pose a threat, or were these merely protest votes that will not result in a consolidated threat?

Graph 19. Opinion on the rise of radical parties

Opinion on the rise of radical parties

CIVIL AMBASSADORS

  • Asked about figures who could represent Spain to project a better image for the country abroad, Spaniards put the sports figures Rafael Nadal and Pau Gasol at the top of the list, each with better than an 8 out of 10 score. Scientists also get high scores (Mariano Barbacid), as do entrepreneurs such as Amancio Ortega.

I shall read you a list of well-known Spanish people. Please give each a score of 0 to 10, based on their ability to project a better image of Spain in the world:

Graph 20. Ratings of well-known Spaniards

Ratings of well-known Spaniards

]]>
<![CDATA[ 20th Edition of the BRIE (March-April 2009) ]]> http://www.realinstitutoelcano.org/wps/portal/rielcano_en/survey?WCM_GLOBAL_CONTEXT=/elcano/elcano_in/barometer/barometer20 2009-02-17T11:38:29Z Technical Data

FIRST WAVE

  • Universe: general Spanish population, age 18 and over.
  • Sample size: N = 1,200 interviewees.
  • Interview method used: telephone (interviewee called at home).
  • Sample size: stratified, directly proportionate to the distribution of the national population and with proportionate quotas according to sex and age.
  • Sample error: ±2.9% for global data (1,200n); ±4% for sub-samples (800n), p = q = 0.5 and a confidence interval of 95.5%.
  • Survey period: from 2 March to 16 March 2009.
  • Fieldwork: Gabinete de Análisis Demoscópico (GAD)

SECOND WAVE

  • Universe: general Spanish population, age 18 and over.
  • Sample size: N = 600 interviewees.
  • Interview method used: telephone (interviewee called at home).
  • Sample size: stratified, directly proportionate to the distribution of the national population and with proportionate quotas according to sex and age.
  • Sample error: ±2.9% for global data (600n), p = q = 0.5 and a confidence interval of 95.5%
  • Survey period: from 14 April to 17 April 2009.
  • Fieldwork: Gabinete de Análisis Demoscópico (GAD)

DEFENCE, NATO AND AFGHANISTAN

  • Most Spaniards think that all missions abroad involve danger.

How dangerous is it for Spanish troops on the following missions in…?

- Very dangerous
- Considerably dangerous
- Somewhat dangerous
- Not at all dangerous

Graph 1. Degree of danger for Spanish troops
Degree of danger for Spanish troops

  • Despite this perceived threat, there is a balance between positive and negative opinions regarding troop presence.

What is your opinion of the presence of Spanish troops in…?

- Very positive
- Positive
- Negative
- Very negative

Graph 2. Positive opinion of the presence of Spanish troops
Positive opinion of the presence of Spanish troops

  • The mission with the highest opinion is the fight against piracy (48%) in the waters off Somalia. Not in vain, 56% believe that the piracy problem affects Spain’s security and interests.

Do you think that the problem of piracy off the waters of Somalia affects Spain’s security and interests a lot, significantly, a little or not at all?

Graph 3. Effect of piracy off Somalia on Spain’s security and interests
Effect of piracy off Somalia on Spain’s security and interests

  • Specifically regarding the mission in Afghanistan, the data are slightly better in comparison with the last wave, with 51% against (3 percentage points less) and 46% in favour (5 percentage points more).

Graph 4. Evolution of the evaluation of Spanish troop presence in Afghanistan
Evolution of the evaluation of Spanish troop presence in Afghanistan

  • Spaniards have a very negative opinion of the situation in Afghanistan, in all aspects: the status of women, control of drug production, government stability, etc.

What is your opinion of Afghanistan in the following aspects?

- Level of well-being of the civil population
- Government stability
- Security and public order
- Status of women
- Control of drug production
- Relationships between ethnic groups and religious groups

Graph 5. Opinion of Afghanistan: negative or very negative response (%)
Opinion of Afghanistan: negative or very negative response (%)

  • It is no surprise then that 67% defend a new strategy of institutional strengthening and development cooperation.

There are those who think that matters should continue as they have up to now in Afghanistan with the strategy of security and reconstruction, and others who think that a new strategy of institutional strengthening and development cooperation is needed. What is your opinion?

- No change
- New strategy

Graph 6. Should there be a new strategy of institutional strengthening and development cooperation in Afghanistan?
Should there be a new strategy of institutional strengthening and development cooperation in Afghanistan?

  • Consequently, 60% of Spaniards have a positive opinion of the results of the NATO Summit.

What is your opinion of the results of the following international event: very positive, positive, negative or very negative?

- The NATO Summit

Graph 7. Result of the Nato Summit
Result of the Nato Summit

  • Consequently, after the NATO Summit, 60% have a positive opinion of the ‘new NATO strategy of institutional strengthening and development cooperation for Afghanistan’.

What is your opinion about NATO’s new strategy of institutional strengthening and development cooperation for Afghanistan?

- Very good
- Good
- Bad
- Very bad

Graph 8. Opinion of the new NATO strategy in Afghanistan
Opinion of the new NATO strategy in Afghanistan

  • Before the Summit, only 4% of Spaniards seemed to support sending more troops, although as a whole the majority supported maintaining the current troops and only 39% supported complete withdrawal.

And regarding Spanish troops in Afghanistan, do you think that they should…

- Be increased?
- Be maintained?
- Be decreased?
- Be withdrawn completely?

Graph 9. Should Spanish troops be...?
Should Spanish troops be...?

  • After the NATO Summit, 46% approve of sending more troops to support the Afghan elections.

What do you think about sending Spanish troops to support Afghan elections?

- Very good
- Good
- Bad
- Very bad

Graph 10. Opinion on sending more Spanish troops to support the Afghan elections
Opinion on sending more Spanish troops to support the Afghan elections

  • 58% agree with contributing financially to the reconstruction and development of Afghanistan.
  • Going to another question, 70% have a positive opinion of the announcement of withdrawing Spanish troops from Kosovo.

To begin with, what is your opinion about the announcement that Spanish troops would be withdrawn from Kosovo?

- Very good
- Good
- Bad
- Very bad

Graph 11. Opinion of withdrawing Spanish troops from Kosovo
Opinion of withdrawing Spanish troops from Kosovo

  • Less than half of Spaniards (43%) think that it has hurt relations with the US.

Do you think that this troop withdrawal benefits or hurts Spain’s relations with the US?

- Benefits
- Hurts
- Neither benefits nor hurts

Graph 12. How does Spain’s troop withdrawal affect relations with the US?
How does Spain’s troop withdrawal affect relations with the US?

  • There is a clear difference between voters of the left and right, as the former think that troop withdrawal does not hurt relations with the US, while the latter think that it does.

Graph 13. Opinion about whether or not the withdrawal of Spanish troops from Kosovo hurts relations with the US, depending on ideological preference
Opinion about whether or not the withdrawal of Spanish troops from Kosovo hurts relations with the US, depending on ideological preference

RELATIONS WITH THE US

  • To improve relations with the US, two out of three Spaniards think that it would be good for Spain to mediate between the US and Muslim countries or between the US and Cuba.
  • 55% also agree with contributing financially to the reconstruction of Iraq.
  • However, 63% reject the possibility of accepting Guantánamo prisoners in Spain, opening up more US military bases in Spanish territory or purchasing weapons from the US.

I shall read a series of actions to improve relations between Spain and the US. Tell me if you would agree or disagree:

- Accepting prisoners from Guantánamo in Spain.
- Contributing financially to the reconstruction of Afghanistan.
- Contributing financially to the reconstruction of Iraq.
- Sending more Spanish troops to Afghanistan.
- Helping to improve the situation of Hispanics in the US.
- Mediating between the US and Cuba.
- Mediating between the US and Muslim countries.
- Increasing Spain’s contribution to NATO.
- Purchasing weapons from the US.
- Facilitating US investment in Spain.
- Allowing more US bases to be opened in Spain.

Graph 14. Percentage of agreement to actions to improve relations with the US
Percentage of agreement to actions to improve relations with the US

  • There is unanimity with respect to Obama: 95% have a positive opinion of his record during the time that he has been in office.

What is your opinion of Obama’s record during his first month in office?

- Very good
- Good
- Bad
- Very bad

Graph 15. Opinion of Obama’s first month in office
Opinion of Obama’s first month in office

  • Obama also stands out as the international leader rated the highest, with a rating of 7, which is three times higher than the lowest-rated, Hugo Chávez, who receives a 2. Obama consolidates his position as an international leader, far ahead of the rest. Conversely, Sarkozy seems to have lost some wind.

Graph 16. Evolution of the average rating of leaders, BRIE 16 to 20
Evolution of the average rating of leaders, BRIE 16 to 20

  • Regarding Hugo Chávez, 80% of Spaniards have a negative opinion of the fact that the Bolivarian leader won the referendum that will allow him to run for re-election as President of Venezuela.

THE EU AND THE SPANISH PRESIDENCY

  • Although only one in five know which country presides over the EU this semester, among those who do know, the Czech President Vaclav Klaus receives a rating of only 4.
  • 38% think that the Lisbon Treaty will be ratified, versus 24% who think that it will not.

Graph 17. Do you think the Constitutional Treaty (of Lisbon) will be ratified in all countries of the EU?
Do you think the Constitutional Treaty (of Lisbon) will be ratified in all countries of the EU?

  • With only one year to go before the Spanish presidency of the EU, in the first semester of 2010, only one out of four Spaniards know that it is going to occur.
  • Spaniards have a positive opinion of the objectives established for the Spanish presidency.

Spain has proposed a series of objectives for its EU Presidency in 2010. Do you think that each of these subjects is very, significantly, somewhat or not-at-all important?

- Gender equality
- Strengthening relations with the US
- The fight against the international financial crisis

Graph 18. Importance of objectives of the Spanish EU Presidency
Importance of objectives of the Spanish EU Presidency

  • However, given the concern about the economic situation, for two out of every three Spaniards, the priority objective should be the fight against the international financial crisis, far ahead of gender equality (24%) and relations with the US (4%).

Graph 19. Which of these objectives is most important?
Which of these objectives is most important?

  • 65% of Spaniards think that European countries are not cooperating in the fight against the crisis and that each one is going its own way.

Graph 20. Would you say that European countries are cooperating in the fight against the financial crisis or, conversely, are they each going their own way?
Would you say that European countries are cooperating in the fight against the financial crisis or, conversely, are they each going their own way?

SOLUTIONS TO THE CRISIS

  • 54% of Spaniards understand that it is a structural crisis, versus only 25% who think that it is a cyclical problem that does not affect the foundations of the system.
  • Regarding possible solutions to the crisis, the overwhelming majority of Spaniards (80%) is in favour of eliminating tax havens, reforming the international financial system and limiting the salaries of bank executives.

I shall read to you a series of measures that have been discussed to solve the economic crisis. Tell me if you are in favour or against:

- Nationalising banks
- Eliminating tax havens
- Reforming the international financial system
- Limiting the salaries of bank executives
- Creating banks that acquire toxic funds

Graph 21. Most favoured measures to combat the crisis
Most favoured measures to combat the crisis

  • 69% also think that Spaniards should consume Spanish products to fight the economic crisis in Spain.

Tell me if you agree or disagree with the following statements:

- The government should limit imports of products from non-EU countries.
- Spaniards should consume Spanish products to fight the crisis.
- Free trade means that better products coming from abroad are available in Spain.
- Immigration is good for a country’s economy.

Graph 22. Approval of further measures to combat the crisis
Approval of further measures to combat the crisis

  • There is a greater division of opinions about nationalising banks, supported by 47% and rejected by 38%.
  • 73% of Spaniards believe that the US will continue to be the world’s leading power after the international financial crisis.
  • Regarding the London Summit, 65% of Spaniards have a positive opinion of its results.

What is your opinion about the results of the following international event (very positive, positive, negative or very negative)?

- The G20 London Summit

Graph 23. Opinion of the G20 London Summit
Opinion of the G20 London Summit

  • 40% think that it was better than the Washington Summit, versus only 13% who think that it was worse. In this regard, the percentage of Spaniards who believe that the Summit will contribute to solving the crisis has increased very significantly.
  • Before the London Summit, 64% of Spaniards had a positive opinion about Spain’s attendance. After the Summit, 70% also had a positive opinion about Spain’s role at the Summit.

What is your opinion (very positive, positive, negative or very negative) about Spain’s participation in…?

- The G20 London Summit

Graph 24. Opinion about Spain’s participation at the G20 Summit in London
Opinion about Spain’s participation at the G20 Summit in London

  • It should be pointed out that the opinion is positive among voters of both the PSOE and the PP.

Graph 25. Opinion of Spain’s participation in the G20 London Summit according to the reported vote in the 2008 general elections
Opinion of Spain’s participation in the G20 London Summit according to the reported vote in the 2008 general elections

IMMIGRATION

  • Within the context of the current crisis, 70% of the respondents think that it is important for Spanish companies to hire Spanish workers.

When companies in Spain hire workers, how important is it that those workers be Spaniards?

- Very important
- Quite important
- Somewhat important
- Not at all important

Graph 26. Is it important to hire Spanish workers?
Is it important to hire Spanish workers?

  • However, 60% of Spaniards think that Spanish companies should first hire the most qualified worker, and only 25% think that they should hire Spaniards even though they might be less qualified than foreign workers.

When companies in Spain hire workers, what criterion do you think should prevail?

- The most qualified over the least
- Spanish over foreign

Graph 27. Which worker should be hired?
Which worker should be hired?

HUMAN RIGHTS AND GLOBAL JUSTICE

  • Despite the adverse economic juncture, Spaniards continue to show their proverbial solidarity and commitment to human rights: 47% believe that there should be further advances in the fight against human rights violations violations.

This year is the 60th Anniversary of the Universal Declaration of Human Rights. Do you think that there have been advances in the fight against violations of human rights during this time?

- Many
- A significant number
- Some
- None

Graph 28. Improvements in human rights
Improvements in human rights

  • In this regard, 90% approve of the Human Rights Plan to promote human rights in the world.

What is your opinion of the plan?

- Very good
- Good
- Bad
- Very bad

Graph 29. Opinion of the Human Rights Plan
Opinion of the Human Rights Plan

  • The vast majority defend international cooperation, human rights, peace and gender equality as the foundations of a more just global society.

I shall read you a series of principles and values. For each one, tell me the importance that you would give to achieve a just international order:

- Strong international bodies.
- No power or country is stronger than any other.
- People can emigrate where they want without barriers.
- There is no poverty in the world.
- There are no wars.
- Women have the same rights as men.
- Rich countries help poor ones.
- Human rights are respected throughout the world.
- Poor countries can export to rich ones without trade barriers.
- All values and cultures are respected.
- There is democracy in all countries.
- Multinationals contribute to the development of the countries where they invest.

Graph 30. Most important principles and values
Most important principles and values

]]>
<![CDATA[ 19th Edition of the BRIE (December 2008) ]]> http://www.realinstitutoelcano.org/wps/portal/rielcano_en/survey?WCM_GLOBAL_CONTEXT=/elcano/elcano_in/barometer/barometer19 2009-02-17T11:38:29Z TECHNICAL DATA

  • Universe: Spaniards of both sexes, aged 18 and over.

  • Sample size: 1,000 interviews.

  • Sample area: National. All Autonomous Communities including Ceuta and Melilla.

  • Sample structure: Stratified multi-stage. Proportional, according to the criteria of size of the population of each Spanish province, with proportional quotas according to the age and sex of the population applied at the individual level. Sample error is ±2.9% for global data for the most unfavourable scenario of p = q = 0.5 and a confidence interval of 95.5%.

  • Methodology used: Computer-assisted telephone interview (CATI system).

  • Survey period: Field work carried out between 4 and 17 December 2008.

  • Field Work: Gabinete de Análisis Demoscópico (GAD).

THE OBAMA EFFECT

  • 90% of Spaniards have a positive opinion of Obama’s election.

What is your opinion of the election of Barack Obama as President of the US?

  • Very positive
  • Positive
  • Negative
  • Very negative

Graph 1. Opinion of Barack Obama

  • This opinion varies very little according to the ideology of the interviewees. Both those on the right and on those on the left agree that it is excellent.

Graph 2. Opinion of Obama’s election, according to ideological self-identification

  • Obama receives a 7 (5 points above Bush), making him the highest-rated international leader.

Graph 3. Average rating of leaders on a scale of 0 to 10

  • The image of the US has improved significantly –by more than 15%– as a result of Obama’s election.

Table 1. What is your opinion of the US as a country?

(%)

June 2008

December 2008

Very positive

12.00

14

Somewhat positive

42

51

Not very positive

30

24

Not at all positive

12

6

Don’t know / No answer

4

4

  • 70% believe there will be significant changes in US foreign policy.

Do you believe there will be a very significant, quite significant, not very significant or not at all significant change in US foreign policy?

Graph 4. Degree of change in US foreign policy

  • 70% believe Obama’s election will be beneficial for Spain.

Graph 5. How do you think Obama’s election will affect Spain?

  • While there is still a broad consensus, it can be seen that the percentage of those who think that Obama’s election will have positive effects for Spain varies according to how respondents say they voted in the most recent general election, ranging from 83% among those who voted PSOE to 69% among those who voted PP.

Graph 6. Opinion on whether Obama’s election will be beneficial for Spain, according to reported vote in 2008 general elections

  • At the same time, 62% think there will be changes in Spanish foreign policy.

Graph 7. Do you think there will be changes in Spanish foreign policy as a result of Obama’s election?

  • Among those who voted PSOE, 72% expect change, while this is the case of only 59% among those who voted PP.

Graph 8. Opinion on whether there will be changes in Spain’s foreign policy, according to reported vote in 2008 general elections

2008 ON BALANCE

  • For the Spanish, great expectations of change involving the US contrast with the continuity that, in their opinion, has been the dominant feature of 2008.

Looking back on 2008, in your opinion, has each of the following issues improved, stayed the same or worsened?:

  • Spain’s influence in the EU
  • Relations between Spain and the US
  • Illegal immigration to Spain
  • Relations between Spain and Morocco
  • Relations between Spain and Venezuela
  • The threat of international terrorism against Spain

Graph 9. Improved, stayed the same or worsened in 2008

WASHINGTON SUMMIT AND G-20

  • 50% have a positive opinion of the results of the Washington summit.

What is your opinion of the results of the Washington summit in terms of the international financial crisis: are they very important, quite important, not very important or not at all important?

  • Very important
  • Quite important
  • Not very important
  • Not at all important

Graph 10. Results of the Washington Summit

  • However, the majority, 64%, believe there will be no short-term solution to the crisis.

Graph 11. Do you think that the summit and subsequent meetings will be able to end the crisis in the short term?

  • Spaniards feel vulnerable to the international financial crisis, which they consider the greatest threat, ahead of international terrorism.

Among the potential threats to Spain’s vital interests in the coming years, do you consider each of the following to be a very significant or significant threat, or no threat at all?:

    • International terrorism
    • Financial crisis
    • Globalisation

Graph 12. Degree of threat

  • Most Spaniards believe that the economic situation in the country is the result of a combination of national and international factors.

Graph 13. Are Spain’s economic troubles due to the international crisis or to domestic factors?

  • There are very significant differences according to the way Spaniards vote, with domestic factors emphasised by four times more PP voters than PSOE voters (40% vs 13%).

Graph 14. Origin of the crisis according to reported vote in the 2008 general election

SPAIN’S POWER

  • 75% have a positive opinion of Spain’s presence at the Washington summit.

What is your opinion of Spain’s presence at the summit?:

  • Very good
  • Good
  • Poor
  • Very poor

Graph 15. Opinion on Spain’s Presence at the Washington Summit

  • Spanish are apparently ambitious: 78% think that Spain should have more power and influence on the international scene.

Which statement about Spain’s power do you agree with more? Spain’s power is fine as it is or Spain should have more power and influence.

Graph 16. Should Spain have more power and influence?

  • But at the same time this is contradictory, since 59% say that the G-8 is not a top priority, and that ‘there are other more important things’.

In your opinion, should it be a top priority for Spain to become a permanent member of the G-8 –the group made up of the world’s richest countries– or are there more important things for our foreign policy?

Graph 17. Is belonging to the G-8 a top priority for Spain or are there other more important things?

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<![CDATA[ 18th Edition of the BRIE (June 2008) ]]> http://www.realinstitutoelcano.org/wps/portal/rielcano_en/survey?WCM_GLOBAL_CONTEXT=/elcano/elcano_in/barometer/barometer18 2008-07-15T02:11:47Z TECHICAL DATA

  • Universe: General Spanish population, aged 18 and over.
  • Sample size: N=1200 interviewees.
  • Interview methodology used: Telephone (call to interviewee’s home).
  • Sample structure: Stratified, directly proportionate to the distribution of the Spanish population with proportionate quotas according to age and sex.
  • Sample error: ±2.9% for global data (1,200n); ±4.1% for sub-samples (800n), p=q=0.5 and a confidence interval of 95.5%.
  • Survey period: Between 3 June and 21 June 2008.
  • Fieldwork: Gabinete de Análisis Demoscópico (GAD).

CONCERN REGARDING THE RISING COST OF FOOD AND OIL

  • Rising food and oil prices are the main external threats, Spaniards say. Over 70% believe that these are very significant threats. Along the same lines, the world economic crisis is perceived as the second greatest concern.
  • At the opposite extreme, Spaniards do not see the Latin American indigenous movements as a threat: at present only 16% are concerned by the issue.

Graph 1. Percentage of interviewees who feel that the issue is a very significant threat to Europe

CRITICISM OF EVO MORALES AND HUGO CHÁVEZ

  • Looking more closely at this issue by asking specific questions, 48% of respondents think that relations between Spain and Bolivia have deteriorated with Evo Morales as President, while over 60% feel that the nationalisation of the gas sector has been detrimental to Spain.

Graph 2. Percentage who agree with these statements about Evo Morales

  • Still on the subject of Latin America, a majority of 52% believes that the Venezuelan President Hugo Chávez provides help of some kind to Colombian guerrilla forces.

Graph 3. Percentage who agree with these statements about Chávez

  • While more Spaniards believe that the incident at the Chile Summit has been resolved (50%) than those who think it has not (35%), Chávez remains the lowest-ranked Latin American leader, with 2 on a scale of 0 to 10.

Graph 4. Ranking of Latin American leaders

  • Finally, Spaniards have a much better opinion of Latin American immigrants in Spain than they have of Moroccan or Eastern European immigrants. 38% think that they are the immigrants who contribute most to Spanish society, while only 2% say this of Moroccans.

Graph 5. Of the following immigrant groups, which would you say contributes most to Spanish society?

AMBIVALENCE TOWARDS IMMIGRATION

  • Most Spaniards feel that immigration is both good and bad for Spain. This is the opinion held by 53%, although 36% say that it is totally positive. Only 10% openly consider it negative.

Graph 6. In your opinion, is immigration good or bad for Spain?

  • Spaniards believe that immigrants overload public services such as healthcare (61% agree with this statement), but at the same time 51% think that immigrants help support the pension system through their Social Security contributions.
  • In this regard, 78% agree that immigrants rejuvenate Spanish society, although 87% also think that fights between gangs of young immigrants are a significant public safety problem.
  • Fifty-four percent think that immigrants do not adapt to Spanish culture, but at the same time 72% believe they help enrich and diversify it.

Graph 7. Opinion of immigration

  • As for immigration policy, 63% support the return of legal immigrants in times of economic difficulty.

Graph 8. Percentage of interviewees in favour of...

  • Eighty-six percent also think that stricter legislation in other European countries could encourage more to come to Spain.

Graph 9. Could stricter legislation against immigrants in other European countries encourage more to come to Spain?

A POOR OPINION OF BERLUSCONI

  • As we have seen, Spaniards do not seem to agree with measures such as those announced by the Italian president Silvio Berlusconi to criminalise immigration.
  • In this regard, 67% of Spaniards consider Berlusconi a xenophobe, while the same percentage thinks that his statements and initiatives contributed to recent attacks against immigrants in Italy.

Graph 10. Opinion of Silvio Berlusconi

  • It is therefore not strange that Berlusconi is the lowest ranked EU leader, with a rating close to that of the lowest-ranked world leaders ?Bush, Putin and Hu Jintao?.

Graph 11. Average rating of leaders on a scale of 0 to 10

THE LISBON TREATY

  • Still on the subject of Europe, but moving on to the new situation after the ?No’ victory in the Irish referendum, 51% believe it marks the start of a new crisis in the EU, although public opinion is quite divided, with almost 40% disagreeing with this statement.

Graph 12. Do you think the Irish ?No’ to the Lisbon Treaty is a crisis for the EU?

  • In any case, 61% believe the ratification process should continue, while only one in four Spaniards think it should stop.

Graph 13. What do you think should be done?

  • At the same time, a majority (57%) also think that after the Irish ?No’, the Treaty should be revised, as was done after the failure of the French and Dutch referendums.

Graph 14. Should the Treaty be revised, as was done after the ?No’ in France and the Netherlands?

  • Moving on to the recent issue of the EU, an overwhelming 80% are against extending the work day.
  • However, Spaniards are again divided regarding EU defence policy, with 40% in favour and 40% against increasing military spending in order for Europe to stop depending on the US.

A POSITIVE IMPRESSION OF THE SPANISH ARMED FORCES

  • Delving further into defence issues, the Spanish have a positive opinion of Spanish missions abroad, all of which receive similar approval ratings of around 50%.

Graph 15. What is your opinion of the presence of Spanish troops in...? (Percentage of very positive or positive answers)

  • The vast majority of Spaniards have a positive opinion of the Spanish Armed Forces: a full 90%.

Graph 16. In general, is your opinion of the Spanish Armed Forces very positive, positive, negative or very negative?

  • Eighty percent think that the Armed Forces have a better image than they did under the Franco regime or even during the transition to democracy.
  • The inclusion of women has undoubtedly contributed to this positive image, since 90% feel this has been very positive for the Armed Forces.

Graph 17. We are near the 20th anniversary of the arrival of women in the Armed Forces. In your opinion, is their presence very positive, positive, negative or very negative?

  • And along the same lines, 80% of Spaniards approve the choice of a woman, Carme Chacón, as Defence Minister.

Graph 18. What is your opinion of the choice of a woman, Carme Chacón, as Defence Minister?

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<![CDATA[ 17th Edition of the BRIE (April 2008) ]]> http://www.realinstitutoelcano.org/wps/portal/rielcano_en/survey?WCM_GLOBAL_CONTEXT=/elcano/elcano_in/barometer/barometer17 2008-06-06T07:24:45Z TECHICAL DATA

  • Universe: General Spanish population, aged 18 and over.
  • Sample size: N = 1,200 interviewees.
  • Interview methodology used: 740 Telephone (call to interviewee’s home)
  • Sample structure: Stratified, directly proportionate to the distribution of the Spanish population with proportionate quotas according to age and sex.
  • Sample error: ±2.9% for global data (1,200n); ±4.1% for sub-samples (800n), p = q = 0.5 and a confidence interval of 95.5%.
  • Survey period: between 26 March and 9 April 2008.
  • Field work: Gabinete de Análisis Demoscópico (GAD).

A MORE CENTRAL ROLE FOR FOREIGN POLICY

  • Spaniards think that foreign policy was not granted the importance it deserves in the previous parliamentary period.

Now that the parliamentary term is over, how much attention did the Zapatero government pay to foreign policy compared to other areas?

  • Neither do they believe that it received due attention in the election campaign.

During the debates between the presidential election candidates, how important do you think foreign policy was?

  • They hope foreign policy will acquire more weighting in the next parliamentary term.

And how much importance do you expect the next government to attach to foreign policy?

  • Quite coherently, Spaniards support the armed forces’ missions abroad because they are peace missions and because of Spain’s international commitments, which equally justify its presence in Afghanistan, Lebanon, Kosovo and Bosnia.

What is your view of the presence of Spanish troops in...?

‘YES’ TO THE LISBON TREATY, ‘NO’ TO BLAIR

  • In accordance with this role which people would like Spain to play in the international arena,Spaniards welcome the designation of Felipe González as Chairman of the so-called ‘reflection group’ on the future of the EU.

The EU has recently designated Felipe González to lead the ‘reflection group’ to consider the Union’s future. What do you think of this?

  • PP voters also supported this appointment, although they were less categorical than PSOE voters.

  • Spaniards also expressed their desire to participate in this debate.

Do you think that European citizens should be able to participate in this debate in some way?

  • The survey evidences some frustration in the wake of the referendum on the Constitutional Treaty: Spaniards believe that the EU does not listen to its citizens, or that it listens only to those of countries such as France.

Do you think that the European authorities care about what European citizens think?: yes, absolutely; they only care about countries like France; not at all.

  • Nevertheless, they welcome the Lisbon Treaty.

What is your opinion of the Lisbon Treaty that replaces the Constitutional Treaty which was put to referendum in Spain?

  • In this connection, if the EU listened to Spaniards, Blair could not be President of the EU. This would appear to be a punishment for the Iraq war.

The EU is set to appoint a President. The possible candidates include Tony Blair. What would you think of such an appointment?

  • The left-wing voters react most negatively, with 62% considering it a bad or very bad choice, whereas 51% of voters from the centre and 43% of right-wing voters would welcome it.

Reaction to the choice of Tony Blair as EU president, by self-styled ideological position

SPANIARDS PREFER OBAMA

  • Despite the time elapsed, Spaniards still think that the Iraq war was not worth it.

The fifth anniversary of the invasion of Iraq was marked recently. Do you think the war was worth it?

  • In fact, they believe the Iraqis are worse off now than under Saddam.

In your view, are the Iraqis better off, the same or worse off now than under Saddam Hussein?

  • As for the forthcoming presidential elections in the US, Spaniards prefer a Democrat to a Republican, and they prefer Barack Obama to Hillary Clinton.

  • However, as expected, Obama’s most fervent supporters are young people.

  • They believe that Obama will bring a change in US foreign policy.

Do you think that if Obama wins the elections there will be a change in US foreign policy?

  • Furthermore, Obama would be the most beneficial candidate for Spain.

Of the three candidates, which do you think is best for Spain’s interests?

CRITICISM OF CHINA, BUT ‘NO’ TO A BOYCOTT

  • Although the war on terror, in particular Guantánamo and the CIA’s secret flights, tarnished the image of the US, Spaniards currently believe that China has less respect for human rights than the US does.

In your view, which country has most respect for human rights?

  • Spaniards believe that China does not respect human rights, that China is not pressing for an end to the genocide in Darfur and that it should grant Tibet more autonomy.

  • Spaniards value the Dalai Lama considerably more than the Chinese President.

Could you tell me what degree of trust you have in the following personalities?

  • However, most Spaniards are not in favour of a Spanish boycott of the Olympic Games.

Would you be in favour of Spain boycotting the Olympic Games as a means of pressure to persuade the Chinese authorities to respect human rights?

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<![CDATA[ 16th Edition of the BRIE (November 2007) ]]> http://www.realinstitutoelcano.org/wps/portal/rielcano_en/survey?WCM_GLOBAL_CONTEXT=/elcano/elcano_in/barometer/barometer16 2008-01-15T12:00:00Z TECHNICAL DATA

  • Universe: General Spanish population, aged 18 and over.
  • Sample size: N = 1,200 interviewees.
  • Methodology used: Telephone (call to interviewees home).
  • Sample structure: Stratified, directly proportionate to the distribution of the Spanish population with proportionate quotas according to the age and sex.
  • Sample error: ±2.9% for global data (1,200n); ±4.1% for sub–samples (800n); p = q = 0.5 and a confidence interval of 95.5%.
  • Survey period: Between 26 November and 3 December 2007.
  • Field work: Gabinete de Análisis Demoscópico (GAD).

ZAPATEROS FOREIGN POLICY HANDED A PASS GRADE

  • Spaniards approve the foreign policy implemented by the government of prime minister José Luis Rodríguez Zapatero. Fifty–four percent rate it positively, compared with 39% who hold a negative view of it.

As might be expected, responses on this issue are linked to the ideology of those surveyed. Seventy–nine percent of socialist (PSOE) voters approve the policy, whereas only 24% of conservative (PP) voters do.

  • Furthermore, 37% believe that it has been better than the foreign policy implemented by the Aznar government, compared with 26% who believe it has been worse.

Once again, the division is along ideological lines. Fifty–nine percent of PSOE voters believe that it has been better, although 21% of PP voters also agree.

OPTIMISM REGARDING MOROCCO

  • For 47% of Spaniards, relations with Morocco are now better than they were under Aznar, whereas 30% think they have deteriorated.

  • Forty–seven percent of Spaniards believe this will continue to be the case in 2008

  • In this regard, an overwhelming majority (79%) of Spaniards think that the recent visit by the King and Queen of Spain to Ceuta and Melilla will not affect bilateral relations.

  • This is probably also because for Spaniards this is not a priority issue. Of the problems regarding the relationship with Morocco, immigration (56%) is the one which Spaniards consider to be most important.

CHÁVEZ: THE LOWEST–SCORING LEADER

  • Spaniards do not think that the incident at the Ibero–American Summit in Santiago de Chile between the King and Hugo Chávez will have a decisive impact on relations between Spain and Venezuela. Only 36% think that it will have consequences for bilateral relations, compared with 60% who think it will not.

  • At all events, the episode has pushed Hugo Chávez’s approval rating down by one and–a–half points since last summers Barometer, to 1.4 on a scale of 0 to 10. However, in the spring of 2004, on average Spaniards gave him a pass.

  • Chávez has become the worst–rated international leader in Spain, below even Fidel Castro and George W. Bush, who are traditionally Spaniards least favoured leaders.

  • Sixty–five percent of Spaniards believe that the purpose of the nuclear research programme announced by the Venezuelan president might be military and not civilian.

  • Spaniards distrust Chávez as much as they do Ahmadinejad, since before the CIA report released last week, 72% also believed that the purpose of the Iranian nuclear research programme was military.

CONCERN IN SOCIETY REGARDING ENERGY AND THE ENVIRONMENT

  • The possible development of nuclear arms in Iran is one of the global problems which worries Spaniards the most: 40% consider it a very significant threat for Spain.
  • They are also worried by international terrorism, which one out of every two Spaniards (46%) see as just as much of a threat as the terrorism of ETA.

  • Spaniards are also very worried by global warming, which they consider to be the third most significant threat. This leads 75% of them to closely follow the news concerning the environment. Forty–seven percent say that Spaniards are not yet worried enough.

  • Energy supply is also among the problems which generate the most concern in society, second only to global warming among environmental concerns. Thirty–seven percent believe that this is a very serious threat to Spain.

SPANIARDS KNOW ABOUT FOREIGN POLICY

  • Eighty–two percentare right in saying that Spain depends on other countries for its energy supply. It is safe to say that Spaniards are starting to acquire an approximate knowledge of Spain’s interests and policies abroad.

  • In a 10–point test, Spaniards got seven questions right and only the following three wrong:

    (1) 64% believe that Spain belongs to the United Nations Security Council.
    (2) 49% believe that Spain is the leading investor in Latin America.
    (3) 46% believe that Spain already devotes 0.7% of GDP to development cooperation aid.

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<![CDATA[ 14th Edition of the BRIE (March 2007) ]]> http://www.realinstitutoelcano.org/wps/portal/rielcano_en/survey?WCM_GLOBAL_CONTEXT=/elcano/elcano_in/barometer/barometer14 2008-07-15T02:11:47Z FAVOURABLE OPINION OF MERKEL AND ROYAL

  • Spain’s pro-European attitude is unsinkable. Fifty-three percent continue to say they are in favour of the EU Constitutional Treaty, versus 8% who oppose it. The problems that have arisen in the ratification process in France and Holland, and the resulting institutional debate, have not affected Spanish opinion. In fact, 89% of those who voted in favour say they would do so again.

%

VOTER INTENTION

In favour

Against

Spoiled ballot

Abstention

PAST VOTE

In favour

89

2

1

2

Against

3

85

1

4

Spoiled ballot

4

1

71

4

Abstention

19

6

31

51

    Percentages in rows.

  • After Kofi Annan was replaced as UN leader by Ban Ki-moon –a stranger for at least 60% of Spaniards–, Angela Merkel became the international leader seen in the most favourable light by the Spanish. Her ranking rose half a point on a scale of 0 to 10, from 5.5 to 6.1, putting her ahead even of Javier Solana, who on this occasion was given a 6.

  • Also, 55% of respondents had a positive opinion of the German presidency of the EU, compared with only 9% whose opinion of it was negative.

  • Germany’s image is also positive on the whole. Seventy-six percent believe it is an essential EU country, and 35% agree that its influence in the EU has increased in recent times; however, only 20% fear the spectre of Nazism and believe that ‘if Germany’s power continues to grow in the 21st century, it could once again become a threat, as in the 20th century’.

  • All in all, 53% of Spaniards think that Germany has too much power in the EU; and they also think this is true of France. By contrast, 68% do not think that the latter is ‘a military power capable of counterbalancing US power in the world.’
  • Regarding the immediate future of France, based on equal familiarity with Royal and Sarkozy (half of Spaniards), the former received a score of 5.7, while the latter was given 4.9 by Spanish respondents.
  • On this matter, there are significant differences between the genders: women gave a higher score to Ségolène Royal.

SPAIN CONSIDERS A NEW COLD WAR

  • On the subject of European defence, given the fact that the US is able to deploy missiles in Europe and that Russia is threatening to build missiles in response, 54% of Spaniards ‘believe it is possible that a situation similar to the Cold War could develop again’.

  • With this in mind, 68% of respondents do not favour alignment with either of the two countries, versus 17% who would be in favour of joining a hypothetical US bloc; only 3% would support Spain aligning itself with Russia.

  • Non-alignment is consistent with the past, but also with the perception of the present. Only 24% feel that the US is a positive influence in the world –the same percentage as for Russia–. This makes Spain one of the developed countries most critical of both powers; however, Iran receives still more criticism.

  • The opinion of Iran is not surprising in light of other facts. The percentage of Spaniards who are very concerned about the development of nuclear arms in Iran has increased significantly since December 2006, from 45% to 58%.

  • This change makes Iran the second-biggest international concern for Spaniards, at the same level as international terrorism.

THE THREAT OF INTERNATIONAL TERRORISM CONTINUES TO INCREASE

  • Most Spanish respondents (43%) put the threat of international terrorism at the same level as ETA terrorism, while in December 2006, before the attack in BarajasAirport, this opinion was shared by only 20%.

  • Sixty-one percent believe that the March 11 trials could lead to attacks against Spanish interests in Muslim countries.

  • As a result of this feeling of threat, 78% say that public spending on the fight against international terrorism should be increased.
  • It is important to emphasise that the Spanish differentiate clearly between Islamist terrorism and Islam itself, and between moral and religious content; they are more tolerant regarding the latter than the former.
  • Sixty-one percent of Spaniards are against Muslim girls wearing a veil at school, versus 18% who are in favour. However, an identical percentage is in favour (40%) and against (40%) Muslims being able to use the Córdoba mosque (a Christian cathedral since the 13th century) as Roman Catholics do.
  • There is reason to suppose that ‘islamophobia’ is not common in Spain, that is, intolerance to a particular religion –in this case Islam–; rather, there is a growing secularism that affects all religions, since only 46% are clearly in favour of Catholic crucifixes being displayed in schools.

  • Along these same lines, only 25% oppose Muslim residents in Spain being able to vote in municipal elections.
  • As a result, the fear of radical Islam has not led to a rejection of Islam as a whole. Terrorism is not so much attributed to ideological factors as to international politics. Sixty-five percent believe that the threat of international terrorism in the world is greater than before the invasion of Afghanistan –59% say this is true for Spain in particular–.

GROWING DANGER FOR SPANISH TROOPS IN AFGHANISTAN

  • The negative news coming from Afghanistan, in particular that of the death of a female Spanish soldier, have had an impact on public opinion: 69% think the situation has worsened in recent months.

  • Regarding the future, the majority think it will worsen (50%), while only 20% are optimistic. As a result, the percentage of Spaniards who consider it ‘very dangerous’ has risen from 34% to 46% since December 2006, so that 9 out of 10 respondents see danger.

  • While in December 2006, 60% had a positive opinion of the mission, this percentage has now dropped to 49%.

  • Overall, only 45% of respondents agree with a total withdrawal of troops, versus 49% who say they should continue in Afghanistan; only 4% support an increase in the contingent and the greatest percentage (34%) believe that Spain’s presence should be maintained at current levels.

  • In line with the arguments defended by their respective political leaders, the most support for withdrawal is found among those who voted for the left-wing IU and for nationalist parties, while an increasing number of PP (Popular Party) voters support keeping troop levels the same or raising them. PSOE (Socialist Party) voters want them to remain the same or be reduced.

  • The refusal to increase the troop contingent is the result of a perception of danger, but also of a deep-set feature of the Spanish attitude to foreign policy: pacifism. Spanish respondents agree with increasing all areas of international action, from diplomacy to foreign investment incentives to intelligence services –absolutely all areas except military and defence spending–.

INCREASING CONCERN REGARDING CLIMATE CHANGE

  • Eighty-six percent agree that public spending should be increased to fight against climate change. This is a result of a significant increase in concern regarding global warming. The percentage of Spaniards who consider it a very significant threat to Spain has risen from 60% to 70% since the Paris meeting, the publication of the UN report, the 5-minute blackout, etc.
  • However, 85% are against an increase in electricity rates, gas prices, etc.; 66% oppose tax increases and 62% are against restrictions on consumption.
  • Ninety-two percent are in favour of developing alternative sources of energy. Only 21% are in favour of building more nuclear power plants to reduce dependence on foreign energy supplies.

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<![CDATA[ 13th Edition of the BRIE (December 2006) ]]> http://www.realinstitutoelcano.org/wps/portal/rielcano_en/survey?WCM_GLOBAL_CONTEXT=/elcano/elcano_in/barometer/barometer13 2008-07-15T02:11:47Z TECHNICAL DATA

  • Universe: Spaniards of both sexes, 18 years of age and older.
  • Sample area: National. All Regions (‘Autonomous Communities’) including Ceuta and Melilla.
  • Sample size: 1,201 interviews.
  • Sample structure: Stratified multi-stage. Proportional, according to the double criteria of size of the population of each Autonomous Community, with proportional quotas according to the age and sex of the population applied at the individual level. The sample error is ±2.9% (1,200n) for global data, p = q = 0.5, with a confidence interval of 95.5%.
  • Methodology used: Computer-assisted telephone interview (CATI system); call to home of interviewee.
  • Survey period: Field work was carried out between 12 June and 21 June inclusive.
  • Field work: TNS – Demoscopia.

SUPPORT FOR SPANISH TROOPS IN LEBANON DESPITE THE DANGER INHERENT IN THE MISSION

  • Two out of three Spaniards (60%) support the presence of Spanish troops in Afghanistan. This is similar to their support for troops in Lebanon (63%).

  • Despite this, in both cases they believe the missions involve a risk for the troops: more in Afghanistan (80%) and somewhat less in Lebanon (68%).

  • As a result, they are against sending more troops. Only 26% would be willing to do so in Afghanistan’s case and 30% in the Lebanon’s.
  • Spaniards also agree in both cases regarding their willingness to withdraw troops if there were combat deaths: nearly three quarters of the interviewees believe that the troops should be withdrawn in both cases (73% for Afghanistan and 72% for Lebanon).
  • On a related issue, Spaniards give their unreserved support for women joining the Armed Forces. A total of 89% of interviewees affirm this. Also, they are mostly in favour (82%) of letting citizens of Latin American origin join the Armed Forces. Although they are in favour of admitting Muslims, they are less warm to this idea (only 59% in favour, versus 33% who oppose the idea).

Net support for admitting certain groups of persons into the Armed Forces (percentage of interviewees in favour, minus the percentage of interviewees opposed)

  • Interviewees with the lowest educational level and socio-economic status are those who are most reluctant to allow practising Muslims to join the Spanish Armed Forces. The same is true of those who identify themselves as right-wing.

% of interviewees in favour of allowing practising Muslims to join the Spanish Armed Forces

FEAR OF ISLAMIST TERRORIST ATTACKS AND GLOBAL WARMING

  • Without a doubt, the greater reluctance, not to say rejection, of Muslims in the Armed Forces is the result of the climate generated by Islamist terrorism, which together with global warming is now the greatest concern of Spaniards at the international level. In both cases, 60% of Spaniards consider these to be ‘very significant’ threats.

Among the possible threats mentioned, the planet’s global warming and international terrorism are the two that interviewees consider the most significant, both rating an average of 2.6 on a scale of 1 (not significant) to 3 (extremely significant).

  • Although there is believed to be less likelihood of terrorist attacks than in the UK or the US, interviewees believe that they could happen again. In the case of the US, 81% think this is very or quite likely, compared with 16% who consider it quite or very unlikely, and for the UK, 71% think it is likely, versus 25% who think it is unlikely. As for Spain, somewhat more than half of the interviewees (54%) consider it unlikely that an Islamist terrorist attack will happen here again.

Net likelihood of new Islamist terrorist attacks in different countries (percentage who consider such an event very or quite likely, minus the percentage who consider it quite or very unlikely).

  • Recent events since ETA announced a ceasefire (street violence, theft of weapons, etc) has meant that since the summer the percentage of those who consider the terrorist organisation to be a threat has risen to the same level as those who feel the same about international terrorism.

  • There is clear ideological polarisation in the responses of Spaniards, with perceptions differing radically between people on the right and on the left: the former consider ETA to be the main threat, while for the latter it is international terrorism.

DISTRUST OF THE EAST

  • The comments made by Pope Benedict XVI on Islam and violence had neither a positive nor negative effect on his image: he continues to score 5.3 on a scale of 0 to 10, about the same as he received in previous waves of the BRIE. This puts him in the group of highest-ranked leaders, along with Kofi Annan, Javier Solana and Angela Merkel.
  • By contrast, Vladimir Putin scored 2.7 out of 10, although President Bush’s 2.2 makes him the lowest-ranked leader.

Ranking of leaders, average on a scale of 0 to 10

  • Most Spaniards think that the Russian Federation has an authoritarian government (82%).

  • However, half of Spaniards (51%) think it is ‘on the rise’ and that its international weight is increasing, versus 41% who disagree.

  • Continuing with Eastern European countries, 60% of Spaniards would support a moratorium on the free movement of Bulgarian and Rumanian citizens after the two countries enter the European Union.

QUALIFIED SUPPORT FOR TURKEY JOINING THE EU

  • As a result of the above perceptions, Russia scores 4.3 on a scale of 0 to 10, the same as Turkey, making these the lowest-ranked countries, with the exception of Israel (at 3.5).

Ranking of countries, average on a scale of 0 to 10

  • Like Russia, at the political level Turkey is considered a country that is authoritarian (66%), unreliable (57%) and not respectful of human rights (63%); furthermore, in the area of values, it is considered to be male chauvinist (88%) and conservative (71%). By contrast, on the positive side, 57% of Spaniards think that Turkey is pro-European, compared with only 38% who think that Russia is.

  • As a result of these considerations, 42% of Spaniards are in favour of Turkey joining the European Union as a full member. 31% would admit Turkey under a special statute as a privileged partner, and 21% are totally against its accession. Therefore, we can say that in Spain, the climate of opinion regarding Turkey is one of qualified support or ambivalence, as a result of an image that is negative in some regards, but not in all.

LIKELIHOOD OF CHANGES IN CUBA IN 2007

  • Regarding their expectations for 2007, given the state of Fidel Castro’s health, one out of two Spaniards (47%) expect that there will be changes in Cuba. They consider this more likely than, for instance, a change in the situation in Iraq, the stabilisation of which only 27% of interviewees believe is possible.

Net likelihood of certain events occurring in 2007 (percentage who consider such an event very or quite likely, minus the percentage who consider it quite or very unlikely).

  • After the death of Fidel Castro, the interviewees believe it is more likely that there will be a peaceful transition to democracy (52% share this opinion) than a civil war (18% believe this) or simply a continuation of the Communist regime (23%).

Opinions regarding what could happen in Cuba after the death of Fidel Castro

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<![CDATA[ 12th Edition of the BRIE (June 2006) ]]> http://www.realinstitutoelcano.org/wps/portal/rielcano_en/survey?WCM_GLOBAL_CONTEXT=/elcano/elcano_in/barometer/barometer+12 2006-10-26T02:57:21Z Technical data

  • Universe: Spaniards of both sexes, 18 years of age and older.
  • Sample area: National. All Regions (‘Autonomous Communities’) including Ceuta and Melilla.
  • Sample size: 1,208 interviews.
  • Sample structure: Stratified multi-stage. Proportional, according to the double criteria of size of the population of each Autonomous Community, with proportional quotas according to the age and sex of the population applied at the individual level.
  • Sample error: ±2.9% (1,200n) for global data, p = q = 0.5 and a confidence interval of 95.5%.
  • Methodology used: Computer-assisted telephone interview (CATI system); call to home of interviewee.
  • Survey period: Field work was carried out between 12 June and 21 June inclusive.
  • Field work: TNS – Demoscopia.

1. INTERNATIONAL TERRORISM, MORE OF A THREAT THAN ETA

Since the ceasefire announcement by ETA, 51% of Spaniards believe that international terrorism is a greater threat for Spain than ETA. This represents a considerable increase from the 21% registered in March 2006.

INTERNATIONAL TERRORISM, MORE OF A THREAT THAN ETA

Spaniards approve the measures taken in Spain to combat international terrorism, especially the cooperation between the state’s security forces. Practically all Spaniards (87%) consider it ‘very important to make the Civil Guard and National Police forces cooperate together’ and also to ‘unify the databases of the state’s security forces’ (81%). In this regard, we should also highlight the support for the ‘control over financial institutions to prevent the financing of terrorism’, which 78% consider very important.

INTERNATIONAL TERRORISM, MORE OF A THREAT THAN ETA
Percentage of ‘very important’ response

Still on the same subject, support for the ‘Alliance of Civilisations’ remains at similar levels to March. Sixty-one per cent believe that the ‘Alliance’ ‘can contribute to the struggle against international terrorism’.

2. GERMANY, THE EUROPEAN CHAMPION

In the context of the fight against terrorism, 91% of Spaniards also believe that co-operation with the EU is very important, more so than with the US.

GERMANY, THE EUROPEAN CHAMPION

In relation to the EU, 55% of those interviewed believe the ratification process of the European Constitution is going badly.

GERMANY, THE EUROPEAN CHAMPION

Despite this, Spaniards are optimistic and the majority (67%) believe that the Constitution will come into force.

The ratification process and the debate on the future of the Union –which have generated some uncertainty– have had no effect on how Spaniards’ see the general situation of the EU, with a majority of 80% considering it good.

GERMANY, THE EUROPEAN CHAMPION

As regards the future, 76% are in favour of ‘deepening the content and institutions of the EU’ before ‘continuing to enlarge the Union to include more countries’ (23%).

However, there are more doubts about how to go about deepening the EU, with a tie between the option of ‘defining and clarifying principles, values and institutions’, supported by 51% of Spaniards, and the option of ‘developing policies and specific actions’, with which 45% are more in agreement.

Germany is for Spaniards ‘the great European champion’: one in two Spaniards believe it is the EU’s most important country, far ahead of the UK (26%) and especially France, which is only mentioned by 12% of those interviewed. But Germany is also the richest nation, the most advanced in science and technology and especially the nation with the best future. In all these aspects France is in third place behind the UK, but is nevertheless considered the country on friendliest terms with Spain and also the most cultured and most democratic.

(%)

France

Germany

Italy

UK

N/A

The richest

8.1

49.8

1.0

37.6

3.5

The most democratic

34.7

26.2

5.4

26.1

7.7

The most advanced in science and technology

8.3

67.6

0.7

19.3

4.1

The most cultured

36.4

27.0

8.5

23.8

4.6

The country on friendliest terms with Spain

38.2

18.9

25.8

10.1

6.9

The most important in the EU

12.3

57.9

1.5

25.9

2.4

The country with the best future

12.0

58.1

4.6

20.8

4.5

As a result, on a scale of 0 to 10, Germany scores 7.4 –half a point ahead of France (6.9)–, when until now other studies had indicated that their scores were practically equal.

3. MORE DIPLOMACY IN THE FIGHT AGAINST ILLEGAL IMMIGRATION

Although as we have just seen, once again Spaniards are profoundly pro-European, a large majority (85%) criticise the EU because they believe ‘it does not co-operate sufficiently with Spain in combating illegal immigration to Spain’.

In the fight against this problem Spaniards believe that the most important measure is diplomacy with the immigrants’ countries of origin (49%), followed by border surveillance, which is mentioned as the second most important measure (52%), and repatriation, mentioned in third place (51%).

(%)

Most Important

2nd Most Important

3rd Most Important

Border surveillance

29.0

52.5

18.0

Repatriation of illegal immigrants

21.3

26.5

51.4

Diplomacy with immigrants’ countries of origin

49.1

20.5

29.8

As a consequence of the importance given to diplomacy, Spaniards have a positive opinion of the holding of the Euro-African conference to fight against illegal immigration: 61% believe that it may be effective compared with 36% who do not share this view.

MORE DIPLOMACY IN THE FIGHT AGAINST ILLEGAL IMMIGRATION

With respect to the measures considered by the Africa Plan, the ‘fight against human-trafficking mafias’ is supported by 54% of Spaniards, followed by the fight against poverty, which is also very important for 43% of those interviewed.

MORE DIPLOMACY IN THE FIGHT AGAINST ILLEGAL IMMIGRATION
Percentage of ‘very important’ response

4. SUPPORT FOR TROOPS CARRYING OUT MISSIONS ABROAD

Spaniards also massively support the sending of troops to the Congo, which 71% of those interviewed consider positive.

Opinions are even more positive than in the case of the Afghanistan mission which, in any case, is supported by 54% of Spaniards, a slight increase on the 51% recorded in March.

(%)

Very Positive

Positive

Negative

Very Negative

N/A

Afghanistan

9.4

44.4

33.0

11.8

1.4

Congo

9.7

49.4

26.5

6.7

7.7

Bosnia, Kosovo, former Yugoslavia

15.9

55.6

20.8

6.0

1.7

Asked about how various occupations active in an international context are valued in Spain –and how they should be valued–, Spaniards believe that military personnel should be more highly valued than they are in Spain at present. The same is true of aid workers, who are awarded the highest score, in contrast with members of the European Parliament (MEPs), who are given the lowest, although they are still at a satisfactory 6.4 on a scale of 0 to 10.

 

How they are valued (from 0-10)

How they should be valued (from 0-10)

Difference (should be/actual)

Military personnel

5.6

6.7

1.2

Diplomats

6.6

7.0

1

Intelligence agents (secret agent, spy, etc.)

6.0

7.1

1.2

Businessmen

6.9

7.4

1

Euro MPs

5.7

6.4

1.1

Aid workers

6.5

8.0

1.2

The data above are in line with the preference of Spaniards for diplomacy before the use of force. Accordingly, as regards Iran’s uranium enrichment programme, Spaniards are still in favour of the need to negotiate, with support at 56% (very similar to the percentage recorded in the BRIE’s previous wave).

5. UNCERTAINTY WITH RESPECT TO BOLIVIA

The fact that Spaniards prefer diplomacy to conflict is again highlighted in their attitudes to the situation caused by the nationalisation of hydrocarbons in Bolivia.

Following the events of the past few months in Bolivia, there has been a change in the opinion of Spaniards regarding the move to the left in Latin America and its effects on Spain’s interests. There has been a significant increase, from 69% to 76%, in the percentage of Spaniards who believe that the change has in fact occurred.

UNCERTAINTY WITH RESPECT TO BOLIVIA

Whilst in March of 2006, 55% considered the move to the left in Latin America positive and 38% negative, the situation has now reversed, with 55% considering it negative and 41% positive.

UNCERTAINTY WITH RESPECT TO BOLIVIA

The opinion on Evo Morales has also deteriorated, from 5.5 –on a scale of 0 to 10– in March to 4.8 at present. This contrasts with the slight increase regarding Michele Bachelet –from 5.4 to 5.6–, making it evident that when Spaniards evaluate the effect on Spain’s interests of the shift to the left in Latin America they are thinking in terms of the situation in Bolivia.

UNCERTAINTY WITH RESPECT TO BOLIVIA

In any case, Spaniards are optimistic and 65% believe that an agreement will be reached with the Bolivian authorities, compared with 30% who are more pessimistic.

As regards the measures to be taken in response to the Bolivian nationalisation programme, 89% are in favour of ‘intensifying the dialogue with the Bolivian authorities’ and a majority of 78% believe that ‘Spanish investments in other sectors different from energy should be encouraged’.

Only one in three Spaniards are in favour of reducing development aid. Although there is a greater division of opinions regarding the writing off of Bolivia’s debt, more are in favour (52%) than against (45%).

(%)

In favour

Against

N/A

Write-off debt with Spain

52.3

45.0

2.8

Intensify dialogue with the Bolivian authorities

89.4

10.2

0.4

Restrict immigration to Spain

49.6

49.3

1.1

Encourage Spanish investments in other sectors different from energy

77.6

20.4

2.0

Reduce development aid

31.5

67.8

0.7

These attitudes are probably related to the fact that 93% of Spaniards recognise ‘the right of the indigenous populations of Latin America to their natural resources’ and that one in two Spaniards agree with the fact that ‘for 500 years Spain has exploited Latin American countries’. The latter opinion is closely related to the political ideas of those interviewed, as 58% of people on the left believe this to be true compared with only 35% of those on the right.

UNCERTAINTY WITH RESPECT TO BOLIVIA
Percentage interviewed in agreement with the statement that ‘for 500 years Spain has exploited Latin American countries’

Nevertheless, 81% consider that ‘Spanish investments have contributed to the development of Latin American countries’.

6. CONCERN OVER ENERGY DEPENDENCE

Also concerning energy, but now turning to Spanish natural resources, one in two Spaniards are ‘very concerned’ by the dependence on foreign energy supplies. This is among the environmental topics of most concern to Spaniards, although behind the depletion of resources, climate change and drought.

CONCERN OVER ENERGY DEPENDENCE

Despite this concern for the dependence on foreign energy supplies, there is a division of opinion on the nuclear energy option, which is rejected by 55%. However, the fact that the question includes a reference to the problems of oil supply and the increase in prices has led to support for the nuclear option rising to 41%, which is higher than in other surveys.

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<![CDATA[ 11th Edition of the BRIE (March 2006) ]]> http://www.realinstitutoelcano.org/wps/portal/rielcano_en/survey?WCM_GLOBAL_CONTEXT=/elcano/elcano_in/barometer/barometer11 2006-10-26T03:17:53Z Technical data

  • Universe: Spaniards of both sexes, 18 years of age and older.
  • Sample area: National. All Regions (‘Autonomous Communities’) including Ceuta and Melilla.
  • Sample size: 1,202 interviews.
  • Sample structure: Stratified multi-stage. Proportional, according to the double criteria of size of the population of each Autonomous Community, with proportional quotas according to the age and sex of the population applied at the individual level.
  • Sample error: ±2.9% (1,200n) for global data, p = q = 0.5 and a confidence interval of 95.5%.
  • Methodology used: Computer-assisted telephone interview (CATI system); call to home of interviewee.
  • Survey period: Field work was carried out between March 10 and June 24.
  • Field work: TNS – Demoscopia.

1. SPANIARDS ARE CONCERNED ABOUT THE DIFFERENCES BETWEEN MUSLIM AND WESTERN COUNTRIES

  • Spaniards have a negative opinion of the ‘cartoon crisis’ as a whole. They are very critical of the violent response in Arab societies: 88% have a negative opinion of their reaction.

SPANIARDS ARE CONCERNED ABOUT THE DIFFERENCES BETWEEN MUSLIM AND WESTERN COUNTRIES

  • 57% also have a negative opinion of the publication in certain European media of the cartoons depicting Mohammed.

SPANIARDS ARE CONCERNED ABOUT THE DIFFERENCES BETWEEN MUSLIM AND WESTERN COUNTRIES

The main factor determining opinions on the cartoons is how religious a given respondent is: the more religious respondents are, the more negative their reactions tend to be. 41% of agnostics have a negative opinion of the cartoons, compared with 70% of ‘very religious’ respondents.

SPANIARDS ARE CONCERNED ABOUT THE DIFFERENCES BETWEEN MUSLIM AND WESTERN COUNTRIES

  • In any case, regardless of their religious convictions, the democratic principles of Spaniards remain clear. Even among those who do not like the cartoons, 72% believe that freedom of expression must prevail, compared with only 14% who consider respect for religions to be more important.
  • Following the violent reactions in some Muslim countries, their negative image has come to the fore:
    1. 90% were considered authoritarian
    2. 79%, intolerant
    3. 68%, violent
  • This image is in contrast with the image of the Western nations –which seem to be the antithesis of Muslim countries–: 80% of respondents consider them democratic and 70% peaceful and tolerant.

SPANIARDS ARE CONCERNED ABOUT THE DIFFERENCES BETWEEN MUSLIM AND WESTERN COUNTRIES

2. THE ALLIANCE OF CIVILISATIONS IS A SOLUTION

As a result of these differences, 74% believe that a ‘clash of civilisations’ does indeed exist, while only 22% reject this idea.

This perception is more a reflection of the fear that it may come about rather than a diagnosis of the situation, since 63% also think that there are differences between Muslim countries themselves. This is also true of Western countries: 72% think that there are differences among them.

Also, a very high percentage (38%) feels that the reaction in Muslim countries was not entirely spontaneous, but was manipulated by their governments.

However, there is optimism regarding solutions. 61% feel that ‘Prime Minister Rodríguez Zapatero’s proposal of an Alliance of Civilisations could help in the fight against international terrorism’, compared with 32% who are in disagreement.

More Spaniards believe that his proposal ‘has been well received in other countries’ than otherwise: 44% compared with 33%.

As for the fight against international terrorism in Spain, 88% have a positive opinion of the national security forces and agencies, and also of the judicial system (66%) and the intelligence and espionage services (63%).

There is a proportionally negative opinion of Islamic religious leaders: 75% of respondents believe they play a negative role. By contrast, opinion is divided regarding political parties: 46% have a positive opinion of them, compared to 48% who have a negative view.

Comparing positive and negative opinions, what is perhaps most striking is the excellent score received by the intelligence services –second only to the national security forces and agencies– despite how little information is necessarily available on these services. This good impression perhaps reflects the importance placed on the information that has led to the dismantling of Islamist recruitment networks in Spain.

THE ALLIANCE OF CIVILISATIONS IS A SOLUTION

3. OPTIMISM ON LATIN AMERICA

A majority (69%) feel that ‘Latin America is turning to the left’.

55% ‘consider this good for Spanish interests in the region’, although 38% consider it negative.

Predictably, these responses reflect the political opinions of the respondent. Among those on the left, 73% think it is positive, while 63% of those on the right think it is negative.

OPTIMISM ON LATIN AMERICA

In general, the Spanish population, which defines itself as centre-left, has a good impression of the new Latin American leaders. On a scale of 0 to 10, both Michele Bachelet and Evo Morales received 5.5, far above the very low scores given to Castro (2.8) and Chávez (3.9), but also above Kirchner (4.9), who met with greater indifference and also proved to be less well known, despite having been longer in power.

OPTIMISM ON LATIN AMERICA

67% believe that the ‘investment of Spanish capital in Latin American countries has been beneficial for their development’. Spaniards have a better opinion of these investments than Latin Americans: their opinion was shared by only 42% of Latin American respondents interviewed by the Latinobarómetro at the initiative of the Elcano Royal Institute in 2005.

OPTIMISM ON LATIN AMERICA

Infrastructures and transport (51%) and telecommunications (46%) were identified as the ‘sectors in which Spanish companies can contribute most to the development of Latin American countries’. By contrast, the least mentioned sector was banking (28%).

42% mentioned tourism, exactly the same percentage as Latin American respondents did. The latter, however, disagree with Spaniards’ opinions about the other sectors, mainly because they are not so enthusiastic about the benefits these investments have brought to their countries. In fact, Latin Americans and Spaniards diverge the most in the two sectors that the latter consider essential: infrastructures and telecommunications.

OPTIMISM ON LATIN AMERICA

Source: BRIE-11 and Latinobarómetro/Elcano Royal Institute.

4. OPINIONS ON PROTECTIONISM

Continuing with investments, 59% think that ‘in order to grow, Spanish companies have the right to absorb and control companies in other countries’, while 36% disagree.

As to whether ‘the Spanish government should prevent the control of Spanish companies by companies from other countries’, there is even greater disagreement: 44% say yes, while 51% say no.

Combining the two questions would give us a typology of Spaniards, whom we could at least provisionally describe as:

  • Liberals: against protection and in favour of external expansion (40%).
  • Protectionists: in favour of external expansion, while protecting the Spanish market (24%).
  • Isolationists: against expansion and in favour of protection (22%).
  • Nationalists: against protection but also against external expansion (14%);

OPINIONS ON PROTECTIONISM

In any case, Spaniards do tend to agree that the sectors that should be protected are energy (22%) and industry (8%).

OPINIONS ON PROTECTIONISM

Attitudes to protectionism are not affected by the country of origin of foreign companies, as percentages do not change even for European Union countries.

6. SPAIN HAS MORE FRIENDS IN EUROPE

Although the question of protectionism has also become part of the debate on the future of the European Union, 82% of Spaniards feel that the state of the Union is good.

OPINIONS ON PROTECTIONISM

Half (49%) believe that ‘Europeans have a good opinion of Spain as a country’, while only 5% think they have a bad opinion.

Spaniards seem surer of themselves than ten years ago. In 1996, a IUOG/ Demoscopia study showed that 10% of Spaniards thought Europeans had a poor opinion of them.

OPINIONS ON PROTECTIONISM

Asked ‘which European country is the friendliest to Spain’, Spaniards said Italy (22%), followed by Germany, France and the UK, all mentioned by 15% of respondents.

In comparison with the results of the 1996 IUOG/ Demoscopia survey, Italy dropped by ten points from 31%, while the UK rose sharply from 3% and France also rose, but less dramatically, from 9%. It could be concluded that Spaniards feel better integrated because they feel they have more friends in Europe.

OPINIONS ON PROTECTIONISM

However, the attribution of antipathy has changed far less. In 2006 the countries considered to dislike Spain the most are France (37%) and the UK (22%). This remains practically unchanged since 1996, when 37% mentioned France and 27% the UK.

But there is a very high opinion of the European Union as a whole, which scored 7.2 on a scale of 0 to 10.

7. ACTIVE MULTILATERALISM

In general, Spaniards have a positive opinion of all international organisations. Of the fourteen they were asked about, only the Arab League was given a score below 5.0. Despite criticism from the anti-globalisation movement, the World Trade Organisation, the World Bank and the International Monetary Fund are seen in a positive light, each receiving 6 points.

The top five include the three most widely known NGOs: Amnesty International, Greenpeace and Doctors without Borders, which ranked the highest (8.5).

ACTIVE MULTILATERALISM

8. SUPPORT FOR HUMANITARIAN ACTION

Spaniards also display militant multilateralism: 79% believe that ‘for Spain's future, it is better for us to play an active role in international politics’.

Thus, 56% are in favour of increasing spending on international aid and cooperation, compared with 6% who favour cutting back in this area. This is the item of foreign expenditure most supported by Spaniards.

However, 39% were also in favour of increased spending on intelligence and secret services, more than on diplomacy and defence, on which most would like spending to be merely maintained.

SUPPORT FOR HUMANITARIAN ACTION

These public spending preferences reflect Spanish pacifism. For instance, regarding the situation created by Iran's nuclear research programme, 85% prefer economic sanctions, while only 5% favour the use of force.

This does not mean, however, that there is a negative opinion of the presence of Spanish troops on humanitarian missions abroad. Quite the opposite is true, whether in the Balkans, Haiti or Afghanistan.

SUPPORT FOR HUMANITARIAN ACTION

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