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ARI (Analisis of the Real Instituto Elcano) :
A Tool for the Economic Crisis: A Single European Treasury (ARI) ARI 31/2009 (Translated from Spanish) - 11/1/2010 (Originally published on 10/3/2009) Juan I. Crespo The economic crisis could open a debate on one of the most passionate and intense issues that Europeans could consider: how to change Europe’s institutional structure to move towards the establishment of a Single Treasury for the euro zone countries.
General Elections in Bolivia, December 2009 (ARI) ARI 154/2009 (Translated from Spanish) - 18/12/2009 Andrés Santana Leitner The Bolivian general elections were held in December 2009 in very special circumstances and conditions: they were the first elections under Bolivia’s New Political Constitution, the first (since the reinstatement of democracy) in which a President was eligible for reelection, the first in which biometric voter registration was implemented and the first in which it was possible to vote from outside the country.
The Homegrown Terrorist Threat to the US Homeland (ARI) ARI 171/2009 - 18/12/2009 Lorenzo Vidino Radicalisation into violence affects some small segments of the American Muslim population and recent events show that a threat from homegrown terrorism of jihadist inspiration does exist in the US.
The World Digital Library (WDL) and Universal Access to Knowledge (ARI) ARI 168/2009 - 15/12/2009 Abdelaziz Abid The World Digital Library (WDL) makes available on the Internet, free of charge and in multilingual format, significant primary materials from countries and cultures around the world.
The Momentum of Indonesia’s Economic Recovery (ARI) ARI 167/2009 - 15/12/2009 Fajar B. Hirawan It is clear that no single country can be immune from the global recession, including Indonesia. The impact on the latter has distorted some of its economic indicators, especially growth and trade. In line with the efforts made by its government to handle the crisis, Indonesia held elections, both legislative and presidential, in 2009. This ARI looks at the implications of the elections and the prospects for Indonesia’s economy after them.
Countering Terrorism and Building Cooperation in North Africa: The Potential Significance of the UN Global Counter-Terrorism Strategy (ARI) ARI 162/2009 - 1/12/2009 Eric Rosand The UN Strategy for North Africa can contribute to a recalibration of counterterrorism efforts in the region and to a stronger cooperation among regional stakeholders and between the region and external partners such as the EU, the UN and the US.
Event Spanish Presidency 2010 26 - 27 November 2009 Elcano Royal Institute and TEPSA New rules for a Closer Union in a Multipolar World, a Renewed Impetus for Sustainable Growth in a Globalised Economy.
The Amazonian Conflict: Biodiversity, Native Communities and Sustainable Development (ARI) ARI 151/2009 (Translated from Spanish) - 17/11/2009 Luis E. González Manrique The resignation of the Peruvian Prime Minister, Yehude Simon, and the congressional repeal of two of the main legislative decrees that opened extensive Amazonian zones to commercial exploitation have provided a merely temporary relief to the reigning tension. The situation is similar, to varying degrees, in the other South-American countries that share the Amazon basin.
The ‘New’ Panama Canal: Present and Future (ARI) ARI 121/2009 (Translated from Spanish) - 17/11/2009 María Gemma Prieto A Spanish company at the head of an international consortium has won the major part of the contract for the expansion of the Panama Canal. This analysis sums up the history, the present and the future plan of an oceanic corridor of prime importance in world politics and the world economy.
Road to Salvation? The Military Offensive in South Waziristan and the Pakistani Nexus of Global Terrorism (ARI) ARI 147/2009 (Translated from Spanish) - 17/11/2009 Fernando Reinares The authorities in Pakistan have launched a military offensive in South Waziristan in an effort to neutralise the threat that Therik e Taliban Pakistan and al-Qaeda and its affiliated groups pose for the political stability and social cohesion of a country that has nuclear weapons. But the terrorism nexus that these groups represent is more complicated than appears at first glance, and confronting the challenge that these extremists pose means the army’s intervention must be complemented with other kinds of measures on the part of the government.
Swedish Presidency Ambitions and ESDP (ARI) ARI 156/2009 - 16/11/2009 Anna Sundberg and Claes Nilsson The Swedish Presidency of the EU has been promoting the European Security and Defence Policy (ESDP) during its six months at the centre of European politics.
North Korea and the Non-proliferation Regime (ARI) ARI 155/2009 - 16/11/2009 Mitchell B. Reiss In this review of the implications of North Korea’s behaviour during 2009 on the Non-proliferation Regime, it is stressed that if North Korea cannot be deterred from its nuclear ambitions this will deliver a serious blow to the international non-proliferation regime. It will also damage the likelihood of a successful outcome at next year’s NPT Review Conference.
Evo Morales and Hugo Chávez visit Spain (ARI) ARI 146/2009 (Translated from Spanish) Carlos Malamud The visits to Spain of Presidents Evo Morales of Bolivia and Hugo Chávez of Venezuela have triggered a major domestic controversy as well as intense external debate, as Spain’s government is accused of seeking to move closer to certain populist leaders.
The EU’s Progress Report on Turkey’s Accession: Sluggish Steps Forward (ARI) ARI 145/2009 - 14/10/2009 William Chislett The European Commission’s annual report on Turkey’s progress towards full EU membership showed that some advances had been made over the last year, but it continued to raise concerns about freedom of expression, the independence of the judiciary and the military’s interference in political life, among other issues.
Geopolitics 2.0 (ARI) ARI 144/2009 - 14/10/2009 Matthew Fraser An entirely new form of virtual weaponry is transforming the dynamics of geopolitics.
The US, the Mediterranean and Transatlantic Strategies (ARI) ARI 141/2009 - 1/10/2009 Ian O. Lesser Cooperation in the Mediterranean is likely to be a key test for the quality of US-EU partnership over the next few years.
The Spectre of Europe (ARI) ARI 137/2009 - 1/10/2009 David Mathieson There is a spectre haunting the next Conservative Government of the UK: it is the spectre of Europe.
Russia’s New National Security Strategy: Towards a ‘Medvedev Doctrine’? (ARI) ARI 135/2009 - 25/9/2009 Javier Morales A new Russian National Security Strategy was approved on 12 May, replacing the 2000 National Security Concept.
The Priorities of the Swedish EU Presidency (ARI) ARI 133/2009 - 18/9/2009 Fredrik Langdal This ARI outlines the six priority areas of the Swedish EU Presidency during the second half of 2009 and looks at its key challenges.
CONTEST (2009): An Evaluation of Revisions to the UK Counter-Terrorism Strategy with a Special Focus on the CBRNE Threat (ARI) ARI 130/2009 - 11/9/2009 Frank Gregory A much expanded version of the UK’s counter-terrorism strategy, CONTEST (based around the four CT objectives of: Pursue, Prevent, Protect and Prepare), was published in March 2009.
The Global Economic Crisis and India: An Analysis (ARI) ARI 129/2009 - 10/9/2009 Pankaj Vashisht and Sriparna Pathak The unfolding global financial crisis comes in various forms and presents many challenges as well as opportunities, even though it is too early to predict any specific outcome. However, the fact remains that the international system and the concept of power as such is undergoing a shift. This has serious implications for the developing world. The financial crisis presents India in particular with several geopolitical implications.
The Independent Commission’s Report on Turkey: Call to Break the Vicious Circle (ARI) ARI 127/2009 - 7/9/2009 William Chislett The Independent Commission on Turkey boldly defends Turkey’s ailing bid to join the EU and rebuffs the stiff opposition to its full membership from the French President Nicolas Sarkozy and some other EU leaders
The UNIFIL II Mission in Lebanon: Italy’s Contribution (ARI) ARI 125/2009 - 4/9/2009 Lucía Marta Italy has contributed to the United Nations Interim Force in Lebanon (UNIFIL) since 1979 and is the first contributor to UNIFIL II since 2006.
Closing Remarks by Mr. Jiri Šedivý 23/7/2009 Jiri Šedivý Closing remarks by Ambassador Jiri Šedivý, NATO Assistant Secretary General for Defence Policy and Planning, at the Seminar ‘Civil Society Civil Society Facing the Consequences of Terrorism: Victims of Terrorism, Civil Liberties and Human Rights’ organised by the Spanish Ministry of Foreign Affairs and Cooperation, the Embassy of Switzerland and the Elcano Royal Institute, and held in Madrid from 15 to 16 June 2009.
Immigration, Emigration and Policy Developments in Portugal (ARI) ARI 117/2009 - 21/7/2009 João Peixoto and Catarina Sabino Due to the economic crisis in Portugal, since the beginning of the new century many of its former immigrants have moved to Spain and other European countries, in parallel with the increase in Portuguese emigration.
The Arts Sector and the Current Financial Crisis (ARI) ARI 116/2009 - 21/7/2009 Cristina Fuentes La Roche The international financial crisis has had an impact on the arts sector and cultural organisations need to take measures to survive the economic downturn.
The Impact of the Global Recession on South Africa (ARI) ARI 115/2009 - 17/7/2009 Hein Marais This paper examines the impact of the global economic recession on South Africa’s economy and society, the ways in which the country’s government has chosen to respond to that crisis, and its likely social and political fall-out.
Citizen Representation in the EU after the 2009 elections to the European Parliament: The Role of National Parliaments (ARI) ARI 114/2009 - 16/7/2009 Daniel Ruiz de Garibay The EU has a democratic deficit and some reforms have been proposed to increase the involvement of national parliaments in its political system.
The EU and Internal Security: Origins, Progress, Limits and Prospects of a Growing Role (ARI) ARI 112/2009 - 15/7/2009 Jörg Monar Since the 1990s the EU has increasingly succeeded in developing a role in the internal security domain. However, this is constrained by the limitations imposed by the Member states in this regard.
The US and Latin America: A New Phase in a Complicated Relationship (ARI) ARI 97/2009 (Translated from Spanish) - 14/7/2009 Carlos Malamud The Fifth Summit of the Americas has served to put relations between Latin America and the US back on the agenda.
Turkey’s Rise as a Regional Power and its Role in the European Neighbourhood (ARI) ARI 108/2009 - 30/6/2009 Deniz Devrim and Evelina Schulz Turkey has a growing strategic role in its overlapping neighbourhood with the EU.
International Terrorism and the Rule of Law 24/6/2009 Hisashi Owada Keynote speech by the President of the International Court of Justice Hisashi Owada at the Seminar ‘Civil Society Civil Society Facing the Consequences of Terrorism: Victims of Terrorism, Civil Liberties and Human Rights’ organised by the Spanish Ministry of Foreign Affairs and Cooperation, the Embassy of Switzerland and and the Elcano Royal Institute and held in Madrid from 15 to 16 June 2009.
Civil Society Facing the Consequences of Terrorism: Victims of Terrorism, Civil Liberties and Human Rights (Translated from Spanish) - 16/6/2009 Enrique Múgica Herzog Speech by the Spanish Ombudsman Enrique Múgica Herzog at the Seminar ‘Civil Society Civil Society Facing the Consequences of Terrorism: Victims of Terrorism, Civil Liberties and Human Rights’ organised by the Spanish Ministry of Foreign Affairs and Cooperation, the Embassy of Switzerland and the Elcano Royal Institute and held in Madrid from 15 to 16 June 2009.
A Russian Perspective on the Energy Charter Treaty (ARI) ARI 98/2009 - 16/6/2009 Andrei V. Belyi The recent gas crises between Russia and the Ukraine and a number of political declarations on the need for a new energy transit regime have brought the Energy Charter Treaty to the limelight.  This ARI aims to explain the Energy Charter’s political role and weaknesses by looking at the entire legal process in its political and historical context.
Al-Qaeda Terrorism and Islamist Extremism in East Africa (ARI) ARI 96/2009 - 5/6/2009 Ángel Rabasa Chaos in Somalia has created opportunities that have been exploited by radical groups with links to al-Qaeda.
North Korea and the New Security Paradigm (ARI) ARI 95/2009 - 4/6/2009 Mitchell B. Reiss A new crisis has emerged on the Korean peninsula as a result of North Korea’s latest nuclear tests.
Germany’s Immigration Policy: From Refusal to Reluctance (ARI) ARI 93/2009 - 3/6/2009 Johannes von Stritzky Germany is a country of immigration, but its society and political leaders still seem reluctant to accept this.
The Fifth Summit of the Americas: Relations with the US are Played Out in Cuba (ARI) ARI 74/2009 (Translated from Spanish) - 28/5/2009 Carlos Malamud and Carola García-Calvo The Fifth Summit of the Americas allowed the US to resume dialogue with Latin America. During the meeting, Washington sought to establish a relationship ‘among equals’, in line with Barack Obama’s idea of moving from a policy of acting ‘for’ Latin America to one of acting ‘with’ it.
The Beginnings of Accountability?: South Africa’s Fourth Election and its Implications for Governance (ARI) ARI 82/2009 - 27/5/2009 Steven Friedman South Africa has just experienced its most competitive election yet. The governing African National Congress was forced to compete for votes for the first time and lost some ground as a result. This ARI examines the implications for government accountability, effective governance and competitive politics.
Ecuador’s Foreign Policy: Presidential Interests and Ideology (ARI) ARI 61/2009 (Translated from Spanish) - 19/05/2009 Carlos Malamud & Carola García-Calvo Ecuador’s foreign policy, in the context of the Rafael Correa’s ‘government of the Citizens’ Revolution’, is complemented by the ‘Patria, altiva, digna y soberana’ project. Accordingly, a set of positions and alliances has been adopted. Some of these are very controversial and have a clear ideological bias, which has compromised the country’s international image.
European Security and EU-Russian Relations (ARI) ARI 76/2009 - 14/5/2009 Manuel de la Cámara The Russian President, Dmitri Medvedev, has proposed a comprehensive review of the so-called ‘European Security Architecture’. The goal, according to the Russian President, is to negotiate a new wide-ranging Pact in the form of a Treaty to cover the Euro-Atlantic Area.
Turkey and Armenia Move to Bury the Hatchet (ARI) ARI 72/2009 - 6/5/2009 William Chislett Turkey and Armenia, backed by the US and Russia, agreed a framework on 23 April 2009 to normalise their relations and end one of the most intractable disputes left from the collapse of the Soviet Union. Turkey closed its border with Armenia in 1993 in support of its ally Azerbaijan, which was in conflict with Armenia over the enclave of Nagorno-Karabakh.
European Issues from a Spanish Perspective: Contribution to EU-27 Watch nr 8 (ARI) ARI 70/2009 - 29/4/2009 Ignacio Molina This paper analyses various European issues –the Irish referendum, transatlantic relations after President Bush, the financial crisis and challenges of global governances, the French EU Presidency and the prospects for ENP and enlargement after ‘Georgia’, among others– from a Spanish perspective.
Algeria: The Subterranean Logics of a Non-election (ARI) ARI 68/2009 - 22/4/2009 Hugh Roberts Algeria has just held what it calls a presidential election. It has done so at intervals since 1995 and these have regularly been a cause for dissatisfaction at home and abroad. But what exactly are these events that so consistently fail to measure up to widespread expectations? This ARI explains that they are not really elections at all and that the expectations entertained in respect of them are entirely misplaced.
Global Terrorism: A Polymorphous Phenomenon (ARI) ARI 65/2009 - 21/4/2009 Fernando Reinares This ARI describes and analyses the various components observed in the current web of global terrorism. The risks and threats that terrorism related directly or indirectly to al-Qaeda pose for a given country or region of the world depend on how the various components eventually combine.
Spain and Turkey: A Budding Relation (ARI) ARI 63/2009 - 15/4/2009 William Chislett In April Turkey joined the small group of countries (France, Portugal, Poland, Italy, Morocco and Germany) with which Spain, an active supporter of Turkey’s bid to join the EU, holds an annual government summit. The scope for enhanced bilateral relations in the trade, investment, political and cultural spheres is considerable.
EU-25/27 WATCH No. 8 / March 2009 14/4/2009 Eu-Consent The aim of the eighth edition of the survey is to provide a full comparative picture of debates on European issues in the EU's member states and two candidate countries (Croatia and Turkey). The project is coordinated by the Institut für Europäische Politik (IEP) and Institutes from all 27 EU member states –including the Elcano Royal Institute- as well as Croatia and Turkey.
The Impact of the Global Crisis on China and its Reaction (ARI) ARI 62/2009 - 14/4/2009 Ming Zhang The current global financial crisis is having a significant negative impact on the Chinese economy, affecting exports, foreign exchange reserves and structural adjustments.
A New European Security Strategy for 2009? (ARI) ARI 36/2009 (Translated from Spanish) - 13/4/2009 Natividad Fernández Sola The European Security Strategy (ESS) was adopted by the European Council on December 12, 2003. There have been many changes in the international community since then and the time has come to consider what has been accomplished and how to achieve what remains to be done.
Second-time Lucky: Chávez on his Way to 2021? (ARI) ARI 46/2009 (Translated from Spanish) - 6/4/2009 Manuel Hidalgo The approval of plans to lift the ban on the indefinite re-election of elected officials paves the way for Chávez to run for office in 2012 and gives him further scope to continue implementing his vague, contradictory and divisive socialist project.
What Makes this Financial Crisis Different from Others? (ARI) ARI 38/2009 (Translated from Spanish) - 1/4/2009 Iliana Olivié This ARI aims to review the underlying causes of the financial crisis that erupted in the US in 2007, using a comparative approach and noting similarities with earlier crises (Mexico in 1994 and South Korea in 1997).
The London Summit: Milestone or Stumbling Block? (ARI) ARI 47/2009 - 23/3/2009 David Mathieson The summit of the G20 and international institutions for growth, jobs and stability is to be held on 2 April 2009 in London.
An Evaluation of the French EU Presidency (ARI) ARI 43/2009 - 17/3/2009 Maxime Lefebvre The French Presidency has been generally recognised to have been successful and has helped to restore –at least for a while– the relationship between France and the rest of Europe.
France and NATO or How to Build a European Defence (ARI) ARI 40/2009 - 10/3/2009 Marcel H. Van Herpen France will probably announce its reintegration into the NATO’s military command at the coming NATO summit of Strasbourg-Kehl, 3-4 April 2009.
New Prospects for the Spanish Language in the Philippines (ARI) ARI 27/2009 (Translated from Spanish) - 26/2/2009 Rafael Rodríguez-Ponga The announcement by the Philippine government concerning the reintroduction of Spanish in secondary education offers new prospects. The new situation deserves consideration from the perspective of individual rights.
The Evolving Threat from Jihadist Terrorism in Turkey (ARI) ARI 26/2009 - 16/2/2009 Guido Steinberg If the trend towards the integration of Turkish Jihadists into larger transnational networks continues, the threat from Jihadist terrorism is likely to grow in Turkey and in countries in which there are sizable Turkish diaspora communities.
Targeting Energy Infrastructure: Examining the Terrorist Threat in North Africa and its Broader Implications (ARI) ARI 25/2009 - 13/2/2009 Jennifer Giroux This paper analyses the terrorist threats to energy infrastructures in North Africa –with a specific focus on events in the Sudan and Algeria, where oil and gas resources have been targeted–, at the statements made by al-Qaeda in this regard and at the protection strategies which are needed.
The Eastern Partnership: An Interim Step Towards Enlargement? (ARI) ARI 22/2009 - 10/2/2009 Deniz Devrim and Evelina Schulz The EU’s Eastern Partnership is a new regional initiative for its eastern European neighbours and this review looks at it in relation to the existing Enlargement and European Neighbourhood policies and in light of their future development.
The Gaza War: Antecedents and Consequences (ARI) ARI 21/2009 - 3/2/2009 Augustus Richard Norton When Israel launched the Gaza war on 27 December 2008, it chose an opportune moment. Nonetheless, much like the Lebanon war of 2006, Israel’s strategic gains in ‘Operation Cast Lead’ have dissipated day by day.
Indo-Pakistani Relations After 26/11 (ARI) ARI 20/2009 - 3/2/2009 Bahukutumbi Raman The author examines the prospects for Indo-Pakistani relations after the 26-29 November 2008 terrorist attack in Mumbai.
Hamas, Al-Qaeda and the Islamisation of the Palestinian Cause (ARI) ARI 19/2009 - 30/1/2009 Jonathan Fighel Under Hamas’s rule, a radical Islamic entity has been established in Gaza, opposed to the national-secular Fatah movement, and pro al-Qaeda groups have started to emerge and carry out attacks against western targets in the Strip.
Improving Economic Governance in the EU (ARI) ARI 12/2009 - 20/1/2009 Carlos Mulas-Granados This ARI analyses the criticisms and the solutions to Europe’s economic governance that have been raised during recent years, and offers a brief reflection on the slight advances that were introduced in the Lisbon Treaty (2007), that still need to be ratified. It ends some reflections on the lessons that we could learn from the current financial crisis, and makes some proposals on the way forward.
Roadmap for a Spanish National Security Strategy (ARI) ARI 112/2008 (Translated from Spanish) - 16/1/2009 Félix Arteaga Several national security strategies which have been devised in Europe offer guidelines for Spain to develop one of its own.
Energy for the Western Hemisphere: Revisiting Latin America’s Energy Scene before the 5th Summit of the Americas (ARI) ARI 10/2009 - 14/1/2009 Paul Isbell Revisiting the energy scenario in Latin America, this paper analyses the region’s various energy challenges and evaluates the need and potential for a region-wide energy strategy.
Preparing for Pandemics through Surveillance (ARI) ARI 9/2009 - 14/1/2009 Sara E. Davies The international surveillance of infectious diseases is being addressed through international, national and non-state networks.
Angola’s Current Economic Prospects: Oil Curse or Blessing? (ARI) ARI 4/2009 - 9/1/2009 Lucy Corkin The author reviews the economic boom that Angola is currently experiencing in a post-election context, despite the global economic downturn. While Angola’s impressive growth rates were initially a result of high oil prices, increasingly the economy is driven by the non-oil sector, primarily through construction and heavy public spending under the auspices of the national reconstruction programme.
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