International Terrorism

How the Terrorist Attacks of 2001 Have Signalled a Fundamental Change in the Nature of Conflict (ARI)

Sebastian L. v. Gorka. ARI 135/2010 - 14/9/2010.

There are still fundamental questions to be answered on the nature of conflict post-9/11 and our existing understanding of war must be reassessed.

A New Composite Global Terrorism Threat to Western Societies from Pakistan? Making Sense of the January 2008 Suicide Bomb Plot in Barcelona (WP)

Fernando Reinares. WP 28/2010 - 2/8/2010.

The actors behind the past twarthed attacks in the Spanish city denoted an intriguing combination which, indicative of the operational limitations faced by Al Qaeda and early manifestation of the Punjabi Taliban network, reflected an evolving terrorism threat to the West related with Pakistan.

Jihadism in Portugal: Grasping a Nebulous Reality (ARI)

Diogo Noivo. ARI 113/2010 - 1/7/2010.

Although for the most part inconclusive, signs of possible Jihadist activity in Portugal suggest certain similarities with the risks present throughout Europe.

Al-Qaeda and Afghanistan in Strategic Context: Counterinsurgency versus Counterterrorism (WP)

Sebastian L. v. Gorka. WP 15/2010 - 17/5/2010.

This paper discusses how the US failed to adequately identify the nature of the conflict it was embarking upon in response to the 9/11 attacks, our flawed understanding of the enemy and the fact that today we are just beginning to appreciate the central role of religious ideology in this war. Should we continue to misunderstand these three realities of the post-9/11 world, success in Afghanistan and Pakistan will not be achievable.

Preparations for the 2010 FIFA World Cup: Vulnerability and Threat of Terrorism (WP)

Anneli Botha. WP 14/2010 - 16/4/2010.

This working paper will provide an overview of the threats of terrorism associated with hosting a prominent sport event, while placing potential threats in context in South Africa; and an overview of preparations for the FIFA World Cup. Its aim is not to discourage visitors to come to South Africa, but rather to place the potential threat of terrorism in context.

Radicalisation in the Diaspora: Why Muslims in the West Attack Their Host Countries (WP)

Peter K. Waldmann. WP 9/2010 - 15/3/2010. Go to Spanish version

While we now have a solid database on the processes of radicalisation of Muslims in the West, what we still lack is a theoretical framework that links the different pieces of empirical knowledge together. This working paper suggests that the diaspora concept could provide such a framework.

The Homegrown Terrorist Threat to the US Homeland (ARI)

Lorenzo Vidino. ARI 171/2009 - 18/12/2009.

Radicalisation into violence affects some small segments of the American Muslim population and recent events show that a threat from homegrown terrorism of jihadist inspiration does exist in the US.

Countering Terrorism and Building Cooperation in North Africa: The Potential Significance of the UN Global Counter-Terrorism Strategy (ARI)

Eric Rosand. ARI 162/2009 - 1/12/2009. Go to Spanish version

The UN Strategy for North Africa can contribute to a recalibration of counterterrorism efforts in the region and to a stronger cooperation among regional stakeholders and between the region and external partners such as the EU, the UN and the US.

Road to Salvation? The Military Offensive in South Waziristan and the Pakistani Nexus of Global Terrorism (ARI)

Fernando Reinares. ARI 147/2009 (Translated from Spanish) - 17/11/2009. Go to Spanish version

The authorities in Pakistan have launched a military offensive in South Waziristan in an effort to neutralise the threat that Therik e Taliban Pakistan and al-Qaeda and its affiliated groups pose for the political stability and social cohesion of a country that has nuclear weapons. But the terrorism nexus that these groups represent is more complicated than appears at first glance, and confronting the challenge that these extremists pose means the army’s intervention must be complemented with other kinds of measures on the part of the government.

CONTEST (2009): An Evaluation of Revisions to the UK Counter-Terrorism Strategy with a Special Focus on the CBRNE Threat (ARI)

Frank Gregory. ARI 130/2009 - 11/9/2009. Go to Spanish version

A much expanded version of the UK’s counter-terrorism strategy, CONTEST (based around the four CT objectives of: Pursue, Prevent, Protect and Prepare), was published in March 2009.