International Economics

Renminbi internationalisation: stuck in mid-river – for now

Miguel Otero-Iglesias. ARI 84/2018 - 4/7/2018.

This paper looks at the internationalisation of the renminbi in May 2018, why it has stagnated since 2015 and what its possible future course might be.

G7 in Canada: Trump’s bravado annoys Europe

Miguel Otero-Iglesias. Expert Comment 32/2018.

The G7 meeting has been one of the most disastrous in years.  The debate in Europe will continue to be whether Trump is just a blip, with the White House returning to the good old Western alliance once he departs, or whether there has been a permanent and structural shift in US foreign policy.

Quit kicking the can down the road: a Spanish view of EMU reforms

. 8/5/2018.

This document written by Spanish economists offers some recommendations towards a stronger architecture for the euro through deeper fiscal, financial and economic integration. It also advocates a greater degree of political union to provide democratic legitimacy and accountability.

The changing Chinese economic model: an opportunity for Spanish companies

Adrián Blanco Estévez. ARI 66/2018 (English version) - 8/5/2018.

This analysis focuses on China’s changing economic growth model and the important new business opportunities this change is generating for Spanish companies.

Portugal’s economic prospects: was the political miracle responsible for the economic miracle?

Luís Teles Morais. ARI 53/2018 - 19/4/2018.

This paper looks at recent developments in the Portuguese economy from the troika period to the current recovery in the context of the political framework. Is the political miracle of the parliamentary coalition behind the later?

Document of interest: FMI - World Economic Outlook, April 2018: Cyclical Upswing, Structural Change

. MI - 18/4/2018.

The IMF has improved its global economic growth prospects to 3.9%, although it warns that trade disputes between the US and China could undermine confidence and affect it. Full report.

El FMI publica sus perspectivas sobre la economía mundial en la que mejoran las perspectivas de crecimiento de la economía mundial al 3,9%, aunque se alerta de que las disputas comerciales entre EEUU y China podrían socavar la confianza y afectar al crecimiento global. Informe completo.

From policy to populism: Donald Trump’s trade policy in global context

Richard Higgott. ARI 47/2018 - 10/4/2018.

An open multilateral trade system is under direct challenge from the policies of President Donald Trump. The year 2018 will be crucial.

Spain’s main listed companies notch up record revenues abroad

William Chislett. ARI 46/2018 - 10/4/2018.

The companies that comprise the Ibex 35, the benchmark index of the Madrid Stock Exchange, generated a record 67.7% of their revenues abroad in 2017.

Debt mutualisation, inflation and populism in the Eurozone

Alfredo Arahuetes García and Gonzalo Gómez Bengoechea. ARI 45/2018 - 5/4/2018.

The balance between monetary normalisation and debt mutualisation should allow a soft transition from ECB’s sovereign interventions to some form of fiscal solution ‘from the centre’.

Understanding money to save the euro

Miguel Otero-Iglesias. Expert Comment 23/2018 - 4/4/2018.

The Eurozone has a problem. The debate on how to reform and deepen European monetary union is dominated by those who believe that establishing a fiscal and political union is not necessary to underpin the single currency’s long-term stability.