International Economics

The institutional limits to the internationalisation of the RMB

Miguel Otero-Iglesias. Op-Ed - 19/1/2016.

The recent inclusion of the renminbi in the IMF’s Special Drawing Rights is a major victory for the People’s Bank of China. Yet for a currency to be highly internationalised, the issuing country must have a stable and transparent political and legal framework.

Document of interest: World Bank - Global Economic Prospects: Spillovers amid Weak Growth (January 2016)

. MI - 13/1/2016.

Según el informe del Banco Mundial sobre las perspectivas económicas mundiales para este año, el débil crecimiento en los principales mercados emergentes afectará el crecimiento mundial en 2016. No obstante la actividad económica tendrá un repunte moderado hasta alcanzar el 2,9%. Informe completo

According to this report by the World Bank on the global economic prospects for this year, the weak growth of the main emerging markets will affect global growth in 2016. Nevertheless, economic activity will grow moderately, up to 2.9%. Full report

Weaknesses remain, but Spanish growth prospects aren’t bad

Federico Steinberg. Expert Comment 58/2015 - 4/11/2015.

A balanced assessment has to conclude that Spain’s recent economic performance has as much light as shade.

Brazil: playing with fire

Alicia García-Herrero. ARI 59/2015 - 30/10/2015.

Rattled by political turmoil and in the midst of severe stagflation, Brazil is really ‘playing with fire’. Urgent measures are needed to reduce the fiscal deficit along with key structural reforms to reduce the size of the government.

The rise of ‘Chermany’: Germany and China, the big winners in economic globalisation

Miguel Otero-Iglesias. ARI 55/2015 - 22/10/2015.

This ARI compares the evolution of the global economic presence of the Big Five European economies with the emerging economies of the BRICS and the N11.

A new multilateral bank to boost investment in infrastructure in Asia

Jorge Dajani-González. ARI 53/2015 - 22/10/2015.

The establishment of the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB) faces major challenges in coming months. It also offers new opportunities to re-launch economic and trade relations for Europe and Asia and for international infrastructure companies.

Putting Germany’s ‘mini-jobs’ in their context

Lars P. Feld, Miguel Otero-Iglesias and Benjamin Weigert. Op-ed - 16/10/2015.

It is unfair to accuse the Germans of imposing a precarious labor model in Europe when the likes of Spain and Greece suffer the highest unemployment. It is better to get people back to work by giving them a job and welfare payments than state aid alone.

The Eurasian Economic Union: ambitions

Gonzalo Pozo-Martín. ARI 49/2015 - 8/10/2015.

The Eurasian Economic Union –officially in existence since 1 January 2015– is the most ambitious attempt yet at economically integrating the post-Soviet space. What are its successes and limitations so far? How does it alter Russia’s relations with the West? Should the EU engage it as a partner?

Stock market collapse and exchange-rate depreciation: what next for China?

Alicia García-Herrero. ARI 42/2015 - 11/8/2015 .

Two episodes of panic have broken out in China’s financial markets in the course of no more than a month: a stock market collapse and only very recently a Renminbi (RMB) depreciation engineered by the People’s Bank of China (PBoC). This note reviews what has happened so far and explores the potential consequences.

Intentionally or otherwise, Schäuble has killed off the prospect of a Grexit

Miguel Otero-Iglesias. Op-Ed - 24/7/2015.

The hard-line taken by the German Finance Minister, Wolfgang Schäuble, and the subsequent U-turn by the Greek Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras, has paradoxically reduced any real potential for a Grexit to take place.