International Economics

Portugal’s economic prospects: was the political miracle responsible for the economic miracle?

Luís Teles Morais. ARI 53/2018 - 19/4/2018.

This paper looks at recent developments in the Portuguese economy from the troika period to the current recovery in the context of the political framework. Is the political miracle of the parliamentary coalition behind the later?

Document of interest: FMI - World Economic Outlook, April 2018: Cyclical Upswing, Structural Change

. MI - 18/4/2018.

The IMF has improved its global economic growth prospects to 3.9%, although it warns that trade disputes between the US and China could undermine confidence and affect it. Full report.

El FMI publica sus perspectivas sobre la economía mundial en la que mejoran las perspectivas de crecimiento de la economía mundial al 3,9%, aunque se alerta de que las disputas comerciales entre EEUU y China podrían socavar la confianza y afectar al crecimiento global. Informe completo.

From policy to populism: Donald Trump’s trade policy in global context

Richard Higgott. ARI 47/2018 - 10/4/2018.

An open multilateral trade system is under direct challenge from the policies of President Donald Trump. The year 2018 will be crucial.

Spain’s main listed companies notch up record revenues abroad

William Chislett. ARI 46/2018 - 10/4/2018.

The companies that comprise the Ibex 35, the benchmark index of the Madrid Stock Exchange, generated a record 67.7% of their revenues abroad in 2017.

Debt mutualisation, inflation and populism in the Eurozone

Alfredo Arahuetes García and Gonzalo Gómez Bengoechea. ARI 45/2018 - 5/4/2018.

The balance between monetary normalisation and debt mutualisation should allow a soft transition from ECB’s sovereign interventions to some form of fiscal solution ‘from the centre’.

Understanding money to save the euro

Miguel Otero-Iglesias. Expert Comment 23/2018 - 4/4/2018.

The Eurozone has a problem. The debate on how to reform and deepen European monetary union is dominated by those who believe that establishing a fiscal and political union is not necessary to underpin the single currency’s long-term stability.

The world economy in 2018

Federico Steinberg and José Pablo Martínez. ARI 34/2018 (English version) - 8/3/2018.

The world economy seems to be rebounding definitively from the Great Recession, but many and varied risks still threaten consolidation of the recovery in 2018.

A G20 agenda for technological justice

Andrés Ortega & Francisco Andrés Pérez. ARI 31/2018 - 6/3/2018.

Technological justice can play an important role within the international system in resolving global challenges and creating a smart and more equal world society.

Spain’s continuing export boom

William Chislett. Expert Comment 16/2018 - 21/2/2018.

Spain’s exporting prowess continued in 2017 when sales of goods abroad increased for the eighth straight year and notched up a new record of €277.1 billion, close to one-quarter of GDP.

Chinese investment in Spain: open for business, but not at any price

Mario Esteban and Miguel Otero-Iglesias. ARI 14/2018 - 6/2/2018.

Reluctance to Chinese investments in Spain may grow if the its volume increases significantly and begins to penetrate more “strategic” or high-tech sectors.