Expert Comments

The expert comments are brief 1.000- to 1,500-word pieces produced by the Elcano Royal Institute's analysts as an immediate response to international events relevant to Spain.


Good news: synchronised global economic acceleration

Federico Steinberg. Expert Comment 44/2017 (English version) - 10/10/2017.

After several years of the global economy growing at an increasingly slower rate, most countries –including advanced, emerging and developing economies– have experienced strong synchronised growth since the middle of 2016 and especially in 2017.


Merkel pays a high price for her fourth term

Miguel Otero-Iglesias. Expert Comment 43/2017 (English version) - 9/10/2017.

The German exception has come to an end. Like its neighbours, the German people, and their elites, will have to deal with the problem of an exclusionary, anti-globalisation, anti-EU and anti-immigration nationalism.


Trump’s foreign policy: the revolution that has not happened – yet

Ulrich Speck. Expert Comment 39/2017 - 19/9/2017.

After eight months with Trump in office, US foreign policy is characterised not by disruption but by continuity. The Trump revolution in foreign policy has not happened.


Windows of opportunity in the Korean Peninsula

Félix Arteaga and Mario Esteban. Expert Comment 35/2017 - 26/5/2017.

The most realistic option to face the DPRK nuclear crisis is to reopen a process of political dialogue. Negotiations based on a North Korean moratorium on nuclear and missile tests are the best scenario.


Reflections on the Commission’s euro reflection paper: let’s get the sequencing right

Miguel Otero-Iglesias. Expert Comment 30/2017 - 6/6/2017.

It is important to think harder on how to improve and strengthen the political union. Only in this way will there be a greater momentum and willingness to introduce the technical solutions that most economists agree upon.


The Paris Agreement after Trump and the future of climate action

Lara Lázaro. Expert Comment 29/2017 - 6/6/2017.

The message from world leaders is clear: there is no intention of abandoning an agreement that has taken over five years to negotiate. The world will move forwards towards a low-carbon future despite Trump’s efforts to hold it back.


The new silk roads: opportunities for Spanish companies?

Mario Esteban. Expert Comment 26/2017 (English version) - 5/6/2017.

As long as the greater part of financing for new silk road projects continues being earmarked for projects where the contracts are not tendered for in a transparent and competitive way, the prospects for Spanish companies’ participation will remain highly limited.


Crossing the red line: how Russian interference in Western democracy is backfiring

Ulrich Speck. Expert Comment 24/2017 - 29/5/2017 .

Those in the West who argue in favour of detente, of an easing of sanctions and a rapprochement with the Kremlin, find it much more difficult to defend this course of action because of the rising anger over Russian political warfare tactics.


Discovering the Mediterranean (and tapping into its pro-European attitudes)

Ignacio Molina. Expert Comment 20/2017 (English version) - 8/5/2017.

If it sets its mind to it, it seems likely that the group of Southern EU countries that met in Madrid will be able to mould the debate on the future of Europe in a decisive way.


From Istanbul to Madrid: five things to know before the Turkish constitutional referendum

İlke Toygür. Expert Comment 18/2017 - 12/4/2017.

Polls show a neck-to-neck race between the two sides. Today, the main question is not the constitutional reform itself, but approval of the governing party, and even more so of the figure of President Erdoğan.