Analyses of the Elcano Royal Institute (ARI)

The analyses are short pieces -of around 3,000 words- on aspects of current international affairs considered to be of relevance to Spain, its foreign policy or its security. In broad terms ARIs are intended to have a predictive bearing on events.


Costa Rica: big election surprises, increased polarisation and eroding governability?

Saúl Weisleder. ARI 57/2018 (English version) - 23/4/2018.

The parliamentary elections in Costa Rica, together with the first round of the presidential elections, have opened up a new scenario with some political novelties.


Putin after Putin

Mira Milosevich-Juaristi. ARI 55/2018 (English version) - 20/4/2018.

What have been the keys to the victory of Vladimir Putin in the presidential elections held on 18 March? Does the election imply a change in the current Russian political system?


Coherence and focus on capability priorities: why EDA’s role in CARD, PESCO and EDF matters

Jorge Domecq. ARI 54/2018 - 19/4/2018.

A coherent, priority-focused and output-oriented implementation of the new tools is indispensable to boost European defence cooperation. The European Defence Agency (EDA) plays an important role in this respect.


Portugal’s economic prospects: was the political miracle responsible for the economic miracle?

Luís Teles Morais. ARI 53/2018 - 19/4/2018.

This paper looks at recent developments in the Portuguese economy from the troika period to the current recovery in the context of the political framework. Is the political miracle of the parliamentary coalition behind the later?


From policy to populism: Donald Trump’s trade policy in global context

Richard Higgott. ARI 47/2018 - 10/4/2018.

An open multilateral trade system is under direct challenge from the policies of President Donald Trump. The year 2018 will be crucial.