Analyses of the Elcano Royal Institute (ARI)

The analyses are short pieces -of around 3,000 words- on aspects of current international affairs considered to be of relevance to Spain, its foreign policy or its security. In broad terms ARIs are intended to have a predictive bearing on events.


Austria in Europe: dynamic perceptions and ambiguous politics

Paul Schmidt. ARI 101/2017 - 11/12/2017.

After snap legislative elections in October a new government coalition will now redefine Austria’s commitment to European integration.


Latin America at the beginning of a decisive electoral triennium (2017-19)

Rogelio Núñez. ARI 99/2017 (English version) - 7/ 12/2017.

In November 2017 Latin America begins a long and intense electoral period that will last until 2019 and during which 14 countries will hold presidential elections. At stake is the adjustment of the region’s economies to the new international context and the confirmation –or not– that Latin America is experiencing a general change in political tendency.


The ‘combination’: an instrument in Russia’s information war in Catalonia

Mira Milosevich-Juaristi. ARI 92/2017 (English version) - 20/11/2017.

During the independence referendum in Catalonia, Russia used the ‘combination’ (kombinaciya), an operation can integrate instruments such as cyber warfare, cyber-intelligence, disinformation, propaganda and collaboration with players hostile to the values of liberal democracy.


The foreign policy of Xi Jinping after the 19th Congress: China strives for a central role on the world stage

Mario Esteban. ARI 87/2017 (English version) - 7/11/2017.

At the recent 19th Congress of the Communist Party of China, Xi Jinping expounded upon the central features of Chinese foreign policy to be followed over the next five years.


Japan’s rosy short-term outlook masks the failure of Abenomics

Alicia Garcia Herrero & Kohei Iwahara. ARI 84/2017 - 2/11/2017.

Shinzō Abe won a majority in the elections to the Lower House of parliament held on 22 October, supported by a cyclical economic uptrend. However, without meaningful structural reforms to lift productivity, Japan’s long-term outlook remains gloomy.