Newsletter Nº 79 - 21 July
  Newsletter Nº 79 - 21 July
  US-Pakistan Relations in the Summer of 2011 (ARI)
Dennis Kux, Senior Scholar at the Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars in Washington
  Temporary Migration between Morocco and Spain (ARI)
Carmen González Enríquez, Senior Analyst in Demography, Population and International Migrations, Elcano Royal Institute
  Fukushima and the Future of Nuclear Energy in Japan: The Need for a Robust Social Contract (ARI)
Haruko Satoh, Research Fellow Osaka School of International Public Policy (OSIPP), Osaka University
  Inside Spain
William Chislett
    Introduction
    Analysis
  Barometer of the Elcano Royal Institute
  Asia-Pacific
  Demography, Population & International Migration
  Energy Programme
  International Terrorism
  Mediterranean & Arab World
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The Elcano Royal Institute is a private entity, independent of both the public administration and the companies that fund it, that was established under the honorary presidency of HRH the Prince of Asturias on 27 December 2001. The Institute’s prime mission is to generate ideas on the international scenario and on Spain’s strategic options in international relations that are of practical use to politicians, the business world, academics the media and public opinion at large.

     

Introduction

William Chislett's Inside Spain reports on the latest events in Spain. On Foreign Policy, two Spanish soldiers were killed and three others wounded by a roadside bomb in Afghanistan, bringing to 96 the number of Spanish personnel killed since the start of the Afghan mission in 2002. Prime Minister Rodríguez Zapatero said Spanish troops and police serving with the NATO-led force in Afghanistan would begin to be withdrawn in 2012. The diplomat Bernardino León, Secretary-General at the Office of the Prime Minister, was appointed EU Special Representative for the Southern Mediterranean region by the Union's Foreign Ministers while Miguel Ángel Moratinos, Spain's former Foreign Minister, lost his bid to head the UN's Rome-based Food and Agricultural Organisation (FAO) to José Graziano da Silva, from Brazil. US Secretary of State Clinton visited Madrid and praised the government's economic reforms. The Domestic Scene has witnessed Alfredo Pérez Rubalcaba -the Deputy Prime Minister, Interior Minister and government spokesman- being formally declared the Socialists' candidate for the next general election, due in March 2012, although support for early elections is gathering momentum among Spaniards. And Spain's first comprehensive national security strategy has been published, identifying the most important threats and risks and outlining how they might be addressed and opening up a process of transition towards a new security and defence model to enable the country to face the challenges and opportunities raised by globalisation. On the Economy, although five Spanish institutions failed the Stress Test Carried out on 91 European Banks, the government and the Bank of Spain have explained that this does not mean they need to strengthen their capital as they have anticyclical provisions for loan losses (a cushion for times of crisis) which the EBA refused to include in its stress test. Also, Spain wanted the maximum transparency and presented 25 banks, well above 50% of the financial system, which is the EBA's requirement. CaixaBank has become Spain's first savings bank to be listed as a commercial bank, followed by Bankia, a merger of seven savings banks led by Caja de Madrid.

Our first highlight is an analysis by Dennis Kux which reviews the current crisis in US-Pakistan relations and looks at the interaction between Washington and Islamabad since the events of 9/11. US-Pakistan relations, the author concludes, 'are like a bad marriage where divorce is impossible' but are likely to continue to rock along. Secondly, our senior analyst for Demography, Population & International Migration, Carmen González Enríquez, explains Spain's management of temporary migration from Morocco, now presented by European institutions and international bodies as a success story to be emulated. Finally, the Newsletter's third highlight, in our Asia-Pacific area, deals with the lessons that should be learnt from the Fukushima accident in March 2011; 'Japan'' Haruko Satoh claims, 'needs to re-think nuclear energy first from the perspective of rebuilding and then by honoring the public's trust in the State'; the focus should be, he argues, on public safety.

The 27th edition of the BRIE presents the results of our quarterly public opinion survey. This time, and in addition to the usual questions, 1.100 Spaniards have responded to issues related to the Greek crisis, the war in Libya and the death of Bin Laden. Gonzalo Escribano, Director of our Energy Programme, analyses the recent announcement by the International Energy Agency of the release of 60 million barrels of its members' strategic petroleum reserves in July, in an attempt, according to the IEA, to mitigate the effects of the Libyan crisis; but the move has been interpreted as a call for the Organisation of the OPEC to boost production and not jeopardise economic recovery, giving Saudi Arabia time to make the announced production increase materialise. On International Terrorism, Lorenzo Vidino offers a 'preliminary assessment' on the impact of the events of the Arab Awakening on Muslim radicalisation among European Muslims; and Silvia Montero and Juan Antonio Sánchez, of our Institute, present the 3rd edition of the Dossier on the Arab Unrest, a monthly analysis of the highlights on this issue.

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    Inside Spain
by William Chislett
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    Analysis: Barometer of the Elcano Royal Institute

 


Document of Interest
27th edition of the Barometer of the Elcano Royal Institute
The 27th edition of the BRIE -a survey carried out three times a year of a sample of 1,200 people considered a fair cross-section of the Spanish population- focuses on issues such as the situation in Greece and the attitude of the German government, Angela Merkel's popularity after the e.coli crisis, the support to the mission in Libya, the comparison between the 15-M movement and the Arab Spring, Osama Bin Laden's death, nuclear energy and soft power in Spain.

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    Analysis: Asia-Pacific

 

 
US-Pakistan Relations in the Summer of 2011 (ARI)
Dennis Kux
This ARI discusses the current crisis in US-Pakistan relations and analyses the interaction between Washington and Islamabad since the events of 9/11.


 

 
Fukushima and the Future of Nuclear Energy in Japan: The Need for a Robust Social Contract (ARI)
Haruko Satoh
The Fukushima accident in March 2011 calls for the reassessment of the nuclear regime in Japan, especially as regards to public safety.


 


Document of Interest
Asian Development Bank - Asian Development Outlook 2011: South-South Economic Links
This year's edition of the ADO highlights the problem of tackling the rising consumer price pressure as an important challenge that developing Asia must resolve to sustain the inclusive growth needed to eliminate poverty in the region.

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    Analysis: Demography, Population & International Migration

 

 
Temporary Migration between Morocco and Spain (ARI)
Carmen González Enríquez
European institutions and international bodies now present Spain's management of temporary migration from Morocco as a success story to be emulated.


 


Document of Interest
OAS - International Migration in the Americas. SICREMI 2011
The Organization of American States (OAS) has issued the First Report of the Continuous Reporting System on International Migration in the Americas (SICREMI). Prepared in cooperation with the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) and the Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC), the SICREMI report 2011 collects data from various sources to process and disseminate information on the magnitude, trends and characteristics of international migration in the region.

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    Analysis: Energy Programme

 


The International Energy Agency Responds to the Libyan Crisis (ARI)
Gonzalo Escribano
On 23 June, the International Energy Agency (IEA) announced the release of 60 million barrels of its members' strategic petroleum reserves in July. In justifying the move, the IEA cited the need to mitigate the effects of the Libyan crisis, but it has been interpreted as a call for the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) to boost production and not jeopardise the economic recovery, as well as giving Saudi Arabia time to make the announced production increase materialise.


 


Document of Interest
UN DESA - World Economic and Social Survey 2011
The WESS 2011, subtitled The Great Green Technological Transformation, calls for a complete transformation of technology on which human economic activity is based, to meet both the objectives of conquering poverty and protecting the environment.

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    Analysis: International Terrorism

 


The Impact of the Arab Awakening on Muslim Radicalization in Europe: A Preliminary Assessment (ARI)
Lorenzo Vidino
While it is premature to draw conclusions, there are reasons to believe that the events of the Arab Awakening are not triggering a wave of radicalisation among European Muslims but might actually decrease it.


 


Document of Interest
European Commission - A European terrorist finance tracking system: available options
Published on 13 July this Communication from the Commission to the European Parliament and the Council presents options on a common solution for extracting information and establishing a European system for tracking terrorist financing.

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    Analysis: Mediterranean & Arab World

 


Elcano Dossier on the Arab Unrest Nº 3
Silvia Montero and Juan A. Sánchez
Monthly analysis of the Arab unrest highlights.


 


Document of Interest
International Crisis Group Popular Protest in North Africa and the Middle East (VII): The Syrian Regime's Slow-Motion Suicide
According to this Middle East/North Africa Report -published on 13 July by ICG- the Syrian regime seems be digging its own grave in an attempt to survive at all costs, and the situation appears to have reached a dead end although it could get worse, especially given the difficult economic conditions in the country.

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The Elcano Royal Institute does not necessarily share the views expressed by the authors of its Working Papers and other texts which may appear on its Website or in any other of its publications.The Institute�s primary goal is to act as a leading forum for research and analysis and to stimulate informed discussion of international affairs, particularly with regard to those issues which are most relevant from a Spanish perspective, and which will be of interest to policy-makers, business leaders, the media, and society at large.