 INSIDE SPAIN, by William Chislett
William Chislett reports on Santander Central Hispano’s purchase of
Britain’s Abbey National and on the Government’s agreement with the
unions on the ailing Izar shipyards. Also on the economic front, he
comments on Spain’s position in the 2004 Growth Competitiveness Index
and on its labour costs and exports. On the political front, topics
this month include the 2004 corruption perceptions index, immigration,
Cuba and Gibraltar. Spain’s currently tense relations with the United
States and the so far intractable Western Sahara problem complete this
month’s Inside Spain.
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 ANALYSES
US Elections What We Learned from the US Presidential Election (ARI)
Author:Soeren Kern
The
decisive re-election of President George W. Bush –with larger
Republican majorities in both houses of Congress– confirms that the
United States is a centre-right country. Nevertheless, the country
remains divided. Indeed, the campaign highlighted cultural divisions
within American society that in many ways reflect the source of the
current tensions in trans-Atlantic relations
Bush vs. Kerry: The Economy in the Balance? (ARI - Part I)
Author:Paul Isbell
Before
the US presidential debates, it was widely agreed that while a majority
of Americans still placed more faith in George Bush in matters
concerning national security, most believed that John Kerry would deal
with economic issues more effectively and fairly than has (or would)
President Bush. Furthermore, while a growing consensus of analysts now
claim –almost to the point of cliché– that the foreign policy stances
of the two candidates are not radically different from each other their
positions on economic matters do appear to be quite distinct and
materially different
Bush vs. Kerry: The Economy in the Balance? (ARI - Part II)
Author:Paul Isbell
What
kind of international economic context will a President Bush or a
President Kerry face? What does it imply for either candidate’s future
potential room for manoeuvre? At first glance the international
economic scenario does appear rosier than ever. Synchronized world
growth this year has produced the fastest global growth rate in a
generation. Nevertheless, a number of lingering weaknesses and new
threats will reduce the responsible room for manoeuvre for the next US
president, regardless of who actually occupies the White House in 2005
Bush vs. Kerry: The Economy in the Balance? (ARI - Part III)
Author:Paul Isbell
The
default scenario for Bush is one in which his desires to continue with
policies which either increase the deficit or fail to pro-actively cut
it, run into the increasing scepticism of Congress and the Federal
Reserve. While this will allow growth to slow, the conflict between the
Bush White House, on the one hand, and the Congress and the Fed on the
other, could by itself spook the markets into the beginnings of a
dollar crisis
The Human Touch: Kerry vs. Bush in the White House (ARI)
Author:Tomas Valasek
Does
it matter whether George W. Bush is re-elected to a second term? While
there is little doubt that most Europeans would prefer a changing of
the guard in the White House, it is equally true that on issues that
most exasperate America’s allies on the old continent, the US
president’s hands are tied. So is Europe not deluding itself in
attaching so much importance to a changing of the guard? Or, on the
contrary, could a different president make substantial changes in US
policies towards Europe
The Latino Vote in 2004 (ARI)
Author:Rodolfo O. de la Garza
The
growth of the Latino population has led to claims that Hispanics would
play a major role in the 2004 presidential election. These claims are
misleading because they rely exclusively on population size and ignore
a variety of structural and behavioural factors that shape the ultimate
influence of the Latino vote. This article reviews how institutional
factors such as the role of the Electoral College and partisan outreach
influence Latino participation
Document of Interest- Transcript of Wednesday?s Speeches
Following
are transcripts of speeches delivered on Wednesday after John Kerry
conceded the presidential election to President George W. Bush
Document of Interest- US Exit Polls
CNN?s exit polls offer a breakdown of voting patterns in the 2004 US Presidential Elections
European Union Turkey?s EU Membership: The Moment of Truth (WP)
Author:William Chislettt
The
European Commission took a momentous decision in October when it
recommended, with certain conditions, that accession talks start with
Turkey, the most secular state among the Islamic nations created by
Mustafa Kemal Atat?rk in 1923 from the ruins of the Ottoman Empire. The
decision, however, has to be endorsed by the leaders of the European
Union (EU) member states at their meeting in Brussels on December 17.
No other country seeking full EU membership has stirred up as many
passions in favour or against its entry as Turkey
Document of Interest- The United States, the European Union and lifting the Arms Embargo on China
Since
last fall, a worrying new front has emergend in the still tense
relationship between the United States and Europe. The front lies not
in the Middle East, but in China. The idea that the EU leaders might
lift their arms embargo on China in December is a deep source of
concern, not only for US Policy makers, but also for many of their
European counterparts
Mediterranean & Arab World Morocco is Failing to Take Off (ARI)
Author:Haizam Amirah
When
Mohammed VI took power in 1999, great hopes were raised both inside and
outside Morocco. Five years later, discontent and disappointment are
growing more quickly than the promised reforms
Document of Interest- Morocco: Counter-Terror Crackdown Sets Back Rights Progress
Morocco''s
campaign against suspected Islamist militants is undermining the
significant human rights progress the country has made in recent years,
Human Rights Watch said in a new report
Document of Interest- Political Reform in the Arab World: A New Ferment?
The
nascent discourse on reform in the Arab World has inspired domestic
predictions that the region is finally responding to the global trend
toward democracy. But such enthusiasm about the inevitability of
democratic change is premature, writes Amy Hawthorne in this Carnegie
Paper
Demography & Population North Africa: Dancing with Demography (WP)
Author:Rickard Sandell
This
paper discusses the general nature of current demographic trends. The
purpose is to offer a more nuanced view of part of the world?s
population development. In particular, the author shows that the
demographic transition, while similar in developed and developing
countries, gives rise to an emerging demographic clevage between
developed and developing countries. The focus of this paper is on
demographic changes in the Mediterranean region. Rickard Sandell
contrasts demographic developments on both the southern and northern
shores of the Mediterranean Sea.
Document of Interest- The Security Demographic Population and Civil Conflict after the Cold War
Do
the dynamics of human population –rates of growth, age structure,
distribution and more- influence when and where warfare will next break
out? The findings of this report suggest that the risk of civil
conflict that are generated by demographic factors may be much more
significant than generally recognized, and worthy of more serious
consideration by national security policymakers and researchers
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