The first Elcano Newsletter after the summer break starts as usual with Inside Spain, that reports on two separate incidents with Morocco that intensified tensions between the two countries; demonstrations by Moroccans at the border with the Spanish enclave of Melilla and sporadic blockades on the movement of goods were followed by the arrest of a group of Spaniards for staging a pro-independence protest in El-Aaiún. Prime Minister Rodríguez Zapatero said that maintaining good relations with Morocco was a priority because of shared interests. Also in Foreign Policy, the killing of three men serving with the Spanish peacekeeping forces in Afghanistan in an attack claimed by the Taliban reignited the debate on Spain’s participation in the NATO-led security mission. On the Domestic side, the government dismissed the ceasefire announced by ETA, in a video first broadcast by the BBC, as a ploy to re-group as the terrorist organisation has been severely weakened by the arrest of military leaders in Spain and France. Market confidence in the Spanish Economy has improved (domestic and international banks have used a record amount of Spanish government bonds as collateral to borrow money, the Madrid stock market picked up, etc) but the country is still mired in very high unemployment –double the euro-zone average–, hardly any growth and low consumption; the government faces the prospect of an early general election if its budget for 2011 is not approved by the end of the year. Also, Parliament approved the government’s mild package of labour reforms and trade unions are due to stage a general strike on September 29.

Our highlights this month include two documents on European issues: a balance of the recent Spanish Presidency by Ignacio Molina, our Senior Analyst for Europe, and a paper by S. Andoura on Belgium’s troubled EU Presidency, that took over on 1 July 2010 from Spain in the midst of a national political crisis. A speech by Ambassador Vicki Huddleston, Deputy Assistant Secretary for Africa in the Office of the US Secretary of Defense, explaining AFRICOM’s mission to promote stability in Africa, and William Chislett’s working paper on the continuing growth of Spains’s multinationals, which he describes as ‘going from strength to strength’, are our third and last highlights.

The 24th edition of the BRIE focuses, among other issues, on the Spanish EU Presidency, the financial crisis, Israel’s public image after the assault on the fleet in Gaza, immigration, veils and crucifixes in schools, Spanish military missions abroad and the evaluation of international leaders. On Asia Pacific, an ARI by Choi Kang stresses the need for a new South Korean policy towards the North, while another by Wang Youming explains how the EU’s ‘Global Governance’ and China’s ‘Harmonious World’ theories seem to be competing to be the dominant idea on international relations in the new century. Justin Willis discusses, within our Sub-Saharan Africa area, the context of the recent elections in Sudan and the multiple events that are affecting the final stages of the peace process that started in 2005.

The text of the speech delivered by NATO’s Secretary General Anders Fogh Rasmussen at a Real Instituto Elcano event on 10 September is offered in our Security and Defence area, where we also present an analysis by Claude Revel on Economic Intelligence, which explains how economic security policies work in the prevention and avoidance of situations that can disrupt the normal life of companies or States. Another ARI by Enrique Fojón and Ángel F. Sanz explains how social, economic and cultural relations are increasingly dependent on the cyberspace, making it necessary to develop a national security system for cyber security. In International Economy and Trade a revealing working paper by A.T. Grove and E. Lopez-Gunn explains why definite and conclusive evidence in the field of climate change is almost an impossibility. In the first of two analyses in our International Cooperation and Development area Jan Vandemoortele urges the participants in the review meeting on progress towards the MDGs –to be held on 20 September 2010 in New York– to accelerate the course of MDGs with a radically different discourse; in the second, Dweep Chanana looks at the current state of India’s donor programme, analysing both its size and scope and India’s desire to expand its activities as a donor. On Demography, Population and International Migrations Doris Marie Provine analyses the controversial Arizona Senate Bill 1070 that, among other issues, criminalises the failure to carry immigration documents. Last but not least, our Senior Analyst on International Terrorism, Fernando Reinares, presents a working paper which tries to bring new light to the January 2008 Suicide Bomb Plot in Barcelona, which showed the signs of an evolving terrorism threat to the West related with Pakistan. Finally, on its ninth anniversary, Sebastian L.v. Gorka reminds our readers that the nature of conflict post-9/11 still presents some crucial unanswered questions.

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24th Wave of the Barometer of the Elcano Royal Institute
The 24th edition of the BRIE -a survey carried out three times a year of a sample of 1,200 people considered a fair cross-section of the Spanish population- focuses on issues such as the balance of the Spanish EU Presidency, the financial crisis, Israel's public image after the assault on the fleet in Gaza, immigration, veils and crucifixes in schools, Spanish military missions abroad and the evaluation of international leaders.

 
‘Innovating Europe’ in troubled times: a first assessment of Spain’s EU Presidency in 2010 (ARI)
Ignacio Molina
After a very rough six months, Spain completes the first rotating Presidency of the EU to be held under the Lisbon Treaty.

 
The Belgian EU Presidency Setting Europe Back into Action and Laying the Future Institutional Groundwork (ARI)
S. Andoura
Belgium took over the Presidency of the EU on 1 July 2010 from Spain and began it in the midst of a national political crisis.

Document of Interest
UN Secretary General - Advisory Opinion by the International Court of Justice in the case of Kosovo to the General Assembly
The UN Secretary General transmitted to the General Assembly the advisory opinion issued by the International Court of Justice on 22 July 2010 in the case entitled Accordance with international law of the unilateral declaration of independence in respect of Kosovo (A/64/881). Also, the General Assembly acknowledged the advisory opinion by a consensus resolution on 9 September 2010. (Accessed: 13/9/2010)

 
Africa, AFRICOM and the Path to Stability
Vicki Huddleston
Lecture by Ambassador Vicki Huddleston, Deputy Assistant Secretary for Africa in the Office of the Secretary of Defense, at the Círculo de Bellas Artes (Madrid) on 17 June 2010.

Document of Interest
The White House - Remarks by the President in Address to the Nation on the End of Combat Operations in Iraq
President Barack Obama announced the end of the United States’s combat mission in Iraq on 31 August 2010. (Accessed: 1/9/2010)

The EU’s Global Governance Versus China’s Harmonious World (ARI)
Wang Youming
The EU’s ‘Global Governance’ and China’s ‘Harmonious World’ seem to be competing to be the dominant idea on international relations in the new century.

Prospects for North Korea-South Korea Relations after the Cheonan Incident (ARI)
Choi Kang
This ARI explores the situation in the Korean peninsula after the sinking of the Cheonan on 26 March 2010 and stresses the need for a new South Korean policy towards the North.

Document of Interest
ADB - Key Indicators for Asia and the Pacific 2010
The 41st edition of the annual statistical data of the Asian Development Bank (ADB) presents a special chapter on the Rise of Asia’s Middle Class. It looks at the growth and impacts of the region’s rapidly expanding middle class, and resulting economic and policy implications.  (Accessed: 9/9/2010).

What Did Sudan Vote For? (ARI)
Justin Willis
Sudan held national elections in April 2010 for the first time in many years. The elections were part of the peace process which began in 2005. This paper discusses the context of the elections and the multiple problems which affected them, and at how the events of the election will affect the final stages of the peace process.

Document of Interest
UN Security Council Resolution 1935. Reports of the Secretary-General on the Sudan
Following the Sudanese national elections in April 2010, the improved relations between this country and Chad after the signing of an agreement to normalise their bilateral relations and the concern over the negative affect of the ongoing violence in Darfur, the UN Security Council �at its 6366th meeting on 30 July 2010- decided to extend the mandate of UNAMID for a further year to 31 July 2011. (Accessed: 8/9/2010)

Economic Intelligence: An Operational Concept for a Globalised World (ARI)
Claude Revel
Economic security policies consist in the prevention and avoidance of all situations that can disrupt the life of firms or States. In France, economic security is seen through the prism of ‘economic intelligence’, which aims to encompass all aspects of globalised risks and opportunities.

NATO’s Evolving Role in an Age of Globalization
Anders Fogh Rasmussen
A speech by NATO Secretary General Anders Fogh Rasmussen in a conference organised by the Elcano Royal Institute in Madrid on 10 September 2010.

Cyber Security in Spain: A Proposal for its Management (ARI)
Enrique Fojón Chamorro and Ángel F. Sanz Villalba
Social, economic and cultural relations are increasingly dependent on information and communication technologies and infrastructures (cyberspace), making it necessary to devise a national security system (cyber security) that can manage the risks that threaten their adequate operation.

Document of Interest
UK House of Commons - The ‘AfPak policy’ and the Pashtuns
Published on 22 June 2010, the research paper 10/45 of the Library of the House of Commons focuses on the Pashtuns. It first begins with a survey of the geographic, historical and cultural factors which have shaped Pashtun identities in Afghanistan and Pakistan, and describes the political and security arrangements under which they currently live. The second part of the paper looks at the US AfPak policy, setting out its origins and evolution before assessing the prospects for success over the coming year and beyond. (Accessed: 2/8/2010)

 
Spain’s Main Multinationals: Building on their Success (WP)
William Chislett
Spain’s main multinationals are going from strength to strength. The investments and acquisitions made abroad over the last 15 years or so are increasingly profitable and significantly reducing the reliance on a domestic market that is in the doldrums. But for these investments some of these companies would barely survive the downturn in their home market.

Uncertainty in Climate Change (WP)
A.T. Grove and E. Lopez-Gunn
This Working Paper reviews the main reasons why definite and conclusive evidence in the field of climate change is almost an impossibility. It analyses the main elements that explain natural climatic change and reflects on the high level of uncertainty in the system, which in many ways is inherent to the system itself, and presents the latest evidence.

Document of Interest
IMF - Spain-2010 Article IV Consultation (July)
According to the staff statement of the Spain Article IV Executive Board Consultation -concluded on 14 July 2010- ‘after 15 years of strong growth led by a housing boom, the Spanish economy has entered a sharp downturn in the wake of the global financial crisis since mid-2007’. (Accessed: 10/9/2010)

Changing the MDG-course by changing the discourse (ARI)
Jan Vandemoortele
The review meeting on progress towards the MDGs that will take place in September 2010 in New York is likely to focus on the usual troika of growth, aid and governance. This paper argues that in order to accelerate the course of MDGs, the discourse at the September meeting should be radically different.

India’s Transition to Global Donor: Limitations and Prospects (ARI)
Dweep Chanana
India has increasingly sought to expand its activities as a donor, both to reposition itself as an emerging power and to use aid as an instrument for engaging with other developing countries. This ARI looks at the current state of India’s donor programme as regards both its size and scope, identifies India’s role within the multilateral aid scenario and evaluates the challenges and prospects for further growth.

Document of Interest
UNDESA - Millennium Development Goals Report 2010
Published on 23 June 2010, the report presents the yearly assessment of global progress towards the Millennium Development Goals. The world continues to make advances towards the MDGs, despite the global economic downturn, but the rate of improvement remains too slow and countries must step up their efforts if the MDGs are to be achieved by their target date of 2015. (Accessed: 22/7/2010)

The Criminalisation of an Immigrant Population (ARI)
Doris Marie Provine
Arizona’s Senate Bill 1070, that goes into effect on 29 July, criminalises the failure to carry immigration documents.

Document of Interest
UN General Assembly - United Nations Global Plan of Action to Combat
The UN General Assembly resolution adopting the UN Global Plan of Action to Combat Trafficking in Persons and establishing the UN Voluntary Trust Fund for Victims of Trafficking in Persons (especially women and children) was issued on 12 August 2010.(Accessed: 31/8/2010)

A New Composite Global Terrorism Threat to Western Societies from Pakistan? Making Sense of the January 2008 Suicide Bomb Plot in Barcelona (WP)
Fernando Reinares
The actors behind the past twarthed attacks in the Spanish city denoted an intriguing combination which, indicative of the operational limitations faced by Al Qaeda and early manifestation of the Punjabi Taliban network, reflected an evolving terrorism threat to the West related with Pakistan.

How the Terrorist Attacks of 2001 Have Signalled a Fundamental Change in the Nature of Conflict (ARI)
Sebastian L. v. Gorka
There are still fundamental questions to be answered on the nature of conflict post-9/11 and our existing understanding of war must be reassessed.

U.S. Department of State - Country Report on Terrorism 2009
The Office of the Coordinator for Counterterrorism of the U.S Department of State released its report, which highlights terrorism trends and ongoing issues in 2009. According to the document, Iran and Syria continued its financial, material, and logistical support for terrorist and militant groups throughout the Middle East and Central Asia. (Accessed: 6/8/2010).