Newsletter Nº 58 - 21 July 2009
  Newsletter Nº 58 - 22 July 2009

  Immigration, Emigration and Policy Developments in Portugal (ARI)
João Peixoto and Catarina Sabino, Researchers at SOCIUS, School of Economics and Management (ISEG), Technical University of Lisbon (Portugal).

  The Way to a New Deal on Climate (WP)
Mikel González-Ruiz de Eguino, Associate Researcher at the Universidad del País Vasco.
Antxon Olabe, Environmental Analyst at Naider.

  The Blessing of Having the Euro and the Need to Make it Better (WP)
Charles Wyplosz, Professor of International Economics at the Graduate Institute of International Studies in Geneva.

  Inside Spain
William Chislett
    Introduction
    Analysis
  International Economy & Trade
  Europe
  Latin America
  Subsaharan Africa
  Demography, Population & International Migrations
  Spanish Language & Culture
 
 

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The Elcano Royal Institute is a private entity, independent of both the public administration and the companies that fund it, that was established under the honorary presidency of HRH the Prince of Asturias on 27 December 2001. The Institute’s prime mission is to generate ideas on the international scenario and on Spain’s strategic options in international relations that are of practical use to politicians, the business world, academics the media and public opinion at large.

     

Introduction

Our last Newsletter before the summer break starts with our regular report on the latest news concerning Spain. On the country’s Foreign Policy, Foreign Minister Miguel Ángel Moratinos, although facing the opposition of the Conservative Popular Party, became the first serving Spanish Minister to officially visit Gibraltar, a British colony since 1713, when the Treaty of Utrecht was signed. Previously, the Foreign Minister made a three-day visit to Equatorial Guinea, the former Spanish colony, with a group of businessmen in search of contracts in the oil-rich but impoverished island ruled by Teodoro Obiang since 1979. Spain held its first summit with the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) and promised €240 million in aid over the next three years to develop agriculture and combat famine, also in an attempt to reduce irregular migration. And last but not least, and although Spain is not a G-20 member, Prime Minister Rodríguez Zapatero will attend the meeting in Pittsburgh in September; the invitation coincided with the announcement that Alan D. Solomont would be the next US Ambassador to Spain. On the Domestic Scene, the Basque terrorist group ETA assassinated a senior anti-terrorist police officer in its first attack since the Socialists took control of the Basque regional government in May. And, in a significant move backing the government’s tougher policy towards ETA’s supporters, the European Court of Human Rights (ECHR) unanimously agreed with the decision to ban Batasuna and Herri Batasuna, political allies of the terrorist group. The head of the National Intelligence Centre (NIC), appointed in 2004, was replaced by General Félix Sanz Roldán, a former military chief of staff; Alberto Sáiz quit his post amid allegations that he had used taxpayers’ money for private purposes. And on the Economy, and on a brighter note, unemployment fell in June for the second month running, while the government’s reform of the regional financing model –replacing the one introduced seven years ago and providing Spain’s regions with an extra €11 billion over the next four years– received the green light from the multi-regional Financial Policy Committee and is expected to be approved by parliament after the summer. Also, the government granted a four-year reprieve to the Garoña nuclear power plant; the closure was opposed by electricity companies, local authorities and workers at the plant. Finally, some gloomier figures: the number of tourists who came to Spain in the first five months of the year was almost 2 million fewer (-11.8%) than in the same period of 2008.

This month we present three highlights: the first, by João Peixoto and Catarina Sabino, is an ARI on Portugal’s migrants and migration policy and the latest developments related to the economic crisis. The second and third highlights are part of our International Economy and Trade area, where a working paper by Mikel González-Ruiz de Eguino and Antxón Olabe puts the climate crisis into context and, after considering its confluence with the energy constraints and economic crisis, tackles the different existing institutional alternatives, finally exploring the role of the UN Security Council. And Charles Wyplosz adds his views to the series of documents published by the Institute on the Euro.

On Europe, Deniz Devrim and Evelina Schulz present an ARI on Turkey’s rise as a regional power and its growing strategic role in its overlapping neighbourhood with the EU. Also on Turkey, a working paper by William Chislett examines the country’s EU accession negotiations, that started in October 2005, arguing that the government’s continued refusal to open its ports and airports to vessels and aircraft from Greek Cypriot-controlled Cyprus is one of the reasons behind the slowness of the process. Jörg Monar presents an ARI on the EU and internal security; since the 1990s, he writes, the EU has increasingly succeeded in developing a role in the internal security domain, but its role is constrained by the limitations imposed by the Member states. Finally, Daniel Ruiz de Garibay examines another aspect of the EU: its democratic deficit and the role of national parliaments. Still within Europe, but mainly concerning Demography, Population and International Migrations, a paper by Maria Ilies describes how while the EU’s member states have been reluctant to harmonise their policies for the management of legal immigration, cooperation has advanced in the field of the prevention and countering of irregular immigration. On Latin America, our Senior Analyst Carlos Malamud writes on the new phase in the relationship between Latin America and the US following the Fifth Summit of the Americas. A paper by Hein Marais, on Subsaharan Africa, examines the impact of the global economic recession on South Africa’s economy and society, the ways in which the country’s government has chosen to respond to that crisis and its likely social and political fall-out. Finally, our Spanish Language and Culture area includes an analysis by Cristina Fuentes exploring current arts sponsorship trends in times of financial crisis.

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    Inside Spain
by William Chislett
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    Analysis: International Economy & Trade

 

 
The Way to a New Deal on Climate (WP)
Mikel González-Ruiz de Eguino and Antxon Olabe
Within a few months, on 7 December 2009, 195 countries will meet in Copenhagen with a common mission: to find a way out of the climate change crisis. The Climate Change Conference ?COP15 in United Nations jargon? aims to lay the foundations of a post-Kyoto agreement that provides workable solutions for a problem that threatens ‘to lead to some impacts that could be abrupt and irreversible’ and undermine global security.


 

 
The Blessing of Having the Euro and the Need to Make it Better (WP)
Charles Wyplosz
Something extraordinary has happened during the Global Crisis that started in 2007. Despite acute financial turmoil and massive injections of liquidity, exchange rates in the euro area have not faced the kind of speculative attacks that were the unavoidable feature of every previous crisis. The reason, of course, is that there are no exchange rates.


 


Document of Interest
WTO-UNEP - Trade and Climate Change
The United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) and the World Trade organisation (WTO) published this joint report on the relationship between trade and climate change, since ‘climate change mitigation measures intersect with WTO rules’.

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    Analysis: Europe

 


Turkey’s Rise as a Regional Power and its Role in the European Neighbourhood (ARI)
Deniz Devrim and Evelina Schulz
Turkey has a growing strategic role in its overlapping neighbourhood with the EU.


 


Turkey’s EU Accession Reaches an Impasse (WP)
William Chislett
Turkey’s EU accession negotiations, started in October 2005, are going very slowly for many reasons, including the government’s continued refusal to open its ports and airports to vessels and aircraft from Greek Cypriot-controlled Cyprus (an EU member since 2004). This issue will come up for review at the EU summit during the current Swedish Presidency.


 


The EU and Internal Security: Origins, Progress, Limits and Prospects of a Growing Role (ARI)
J?rg Monar
Since the 1990s the EU has increasingly succeeded in developing a role in the internal security domain. However, this is constrained by the limitations imposed by the Member states in this regard.


 


Citizen Representation in the EU after the 2009 elections to the European Parliament: The Role of National Parliaments (ARI)
Daniel Ruiz de Garibay
The EU has a democratic deficit and some reforms have been proposed to increase the involvement of national parliaments in its political system.


 


Document of Interest
Council of the EU - Brussels European Council. 18 - 19 June 2009. Presidency Conclusions
The Lisbon treaty and financial supervision dominate the debate of the first Council since the European elections earlier in June.

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    Analysis: Latin America

 


The US and Latin America: A New Phase in a Complicated Relationship (ARI)
Carlos Malamud
The Fifth Summit of the Americas has served to put relations between Latin America and the US back on the agenda.


 


Document of Interest
ECLAC - Economic Survey of Latin America and the Caribbean 2008-2009
The 61st edition of the Economic Survey of Latin America and the Caribbean highlights that ‘the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) of Latin America and the Caribbean will contract 1.9% this year, raising unemployment to 9% and aggravating poverty levels’.

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    Analysis: Subsaharan Africa

 


The Impact of the Global Recession on South Africa (ARI)
Hein Marais
This paper examines the impact of the global economic recession on South Africa’s economy and society, the ways in which the country’s government has chosen to respond to that crisis, and its likelyocial and political fall-out.


 


Document of Interest
UN-DESA - The Millennium Development Goals Report 2009
The MDG Report 2009 summarises progress towards the eight Millennium Development goals in each of the 10 major geographic regions. It warns that ‘although data are not yet available to reveal the full impact of the recent economic downturn, they point to areas where progress towards the eight goals has slowed or reversed’.


 


Document of Interest
The White House - A New Moment of Promise in Africa
This is the text of Barack Obama’s speech on human rights and democracy in Africa’s future and the American role in promoting better governance in the region, delivered at the Ghanaian Parliament in Accra on 11 July.

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    Analysis: Demography, Population & International Migrations

 

 
Immigration, Emigration and Policy Developments in Portugal (ARI)
Jo?o Peixoto and Catarina Sabino
Due to the economic crisis in Portugal, since the beginning of the new century many of its former immigrants have moved to Spain and other European countries, in parallel with the increase in Portuguese emigration.


 


Irregular Immigration Policy in the European Community: Action at all Stages of the Irregular Migration Flow (WP)
Maria Ilies
While EU member states have been reluctant to harmonise their policies for managing legal immigration, cooperation for the prevention and control of irregular migration has progressed.


 


Document of Interest
UNHCR - 2008 Global Trends: Refugees, Asylum-seekers, Returnees, Internally Displaced and Stateless Persons
The annual publication of the Office of the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR) shows that roughly 42 million people worldwide have been uprooted by conflict and persecution.

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    Analysis: Spanish Language & Culture

 


The Arts Sector and the Current Financial Crisis (ARI)
Cristina Fuentes La Roche
The international financial crisis has had an impact on the arts sector and cultural organisations need to take measures to survive the economic downturn.


 


Document of Interest
WB - Global Development Finance. Charting a Global Recovery
The recent report published by the World Bank highlights that ‘the world is entering an era of slower growth that will require tighter and more effective oversight of the financial system’. Global growth is also expected to be negative, with an expected 2.9% contraction of global GDP in 2009.

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The Elcano Royal Institute does not necessarily share the views expressed by the authors of its Working Papers and other texts which may appear on its Website or in any other of its publications.The Institute’s primary goal is to act as a leading forum for research and analysis and to stimulate informed discussion of international affairs, particularly with regard to those issues which are most relevant from a Spanish perspective, and which will be of interest to policy-makers, business leaders, the media, and society at large.