We open this month’s Newsletter with our usual Inside Spain section. On Foreign policy, Spain’s largest UN–backed military mission in Africa so far was sent to Chad following a UN Security Council Resolution which authorised the EU to launch an operation to protect civilians. Miguel ?ngel Moratinos, the Foreign Minister, offered the Popular Party (PP) a 10–point framework for agreeing a common foreign policy, to which they reacted favourably, but also calling for a much tougher policy towards Cuba and Venezuela. On the Domestic side, William Chislett reports, among other news, on how Spanish and French police arrested in Bordeaux the terrorist Javier López Peña, who assumed ETA’s leadership in 2004. In Madrid, the Prime Minister met Juan José Ibarretxe, the Basque Premier, to discuss putting his plan to end ETA violence and promote self–determination to a referendum in October; Rodríguez Zapatero again rejected the plan as unconstitutional. Mariano Rajoy’s leadership of the Popular Party (PP), under mounting pressure since he lost the general election last March, will be put to the test later this month at the party’s congress. At last, heavy rainfall in many parts of Spain significantly raised reservoir levels and brought respite from the severe drought. It was announced that Madrid is one of three cities in the shortlist to host the 2016 Games. The Economy brings news of the first big protest faced by the Government since coming to power in 2004, with thousands of lorry drivers blocking roads in protest at high petrol prices. On the corporate scene, a consortium led by Abertis –part of Spain’s largest construction company– won the largest ever US toll–road deal after offering €8.26 billion for a 75–year lease on the Pennsylvania Turnpike; Iberdrola, the world’s biggest renewable energy operator, is to invest €5 billion in renewable energy activities in the US, and, in a separate development underscoring the company’s fast–growing internationalisation, signed an accord with the Abu Dhabi group Taqa on joint investments in energy projects; finally, Criteria CaixaCorp, the investment vehicle of La Caixa, is to take a 20% stake at a cost of €1.5 billion in Mexico’s Grupo Financiero Inbursa. On a negative note, annual consumer price inflation in May was 4.7%, the highest in 13 years, and the number of registered unemployed rose for the first time that month since 1979.

This month we highlight the conference delivered by Joseph S. Nye, Jr., at the bilateral seminar on ?Foreign Policy Priorities for the Next US President’, held in Madrid on 19 May, on ?Leadership and American Foreign Policy’. Secondly, a detailed study by Carmelo Mesa–Lago on the Cuban economy looks at the debate on change, identifying the key issues and analysing the economic measures taken and the reforms announced since April 2008 and their viability and possible impact. And, finally, George Irani is the author of our third highlight, which assesses the causes and results of the war in Lebanon in the summer of 2006 and its implications and focuses on Spain’s military involvement, especially the relationship between the Spanish UNIFIL contingent and the local population in South Lebanon.

Within our Europe area, we present an analysis by Hugo Brady, warning that ?The Irish Might Guillotine Lisbon’ and describing the complex situation on the eve of the only referendum in Europe on the Lisbon Treaty. This crucial treaty is the central theme of a paper by professor José Martín y Pérez de Nanclares which offers a general historical context of European Integration, analyses the real meaning of the return to the classic path of treaty reform as against the failed constitutional method, and looks at the new Treaty’s scope. Finally, William Chislett concentrates on the growing cleavage between the two different concepts of secularism held by Turkey’s ruling AKP and the country’s secular establishment and the potential repercussions on the country’s already protracted bid to become a full member of the EU.

In Latin America, and within a series on Potential Flashpoints in South America, Carlos Malamud and Carlota García Encina analyse the critical political, institutional, ethnic and social situation in Bolivia today, aggravated by the referendum on political autonomy held in several regions, which could lead to a worrying level of regional instability. Our Demography, Population and International Migrations area includes an analysis by Michael Collyer on Mediterranean Migration Management, with ongoing EU negotiations with the African Union having identified a number of clear, achievable steps in this regard, and a paper by Anna Lindley, which casts some light on the issue of immigrants’ remittances to Africa, whose impact on development remains unclear. Paul–Simon Handy, in our Subsaharan Africa area, writes on Chad and argues that international intervention (eg, EUROFOR) must address structural problems linked to governance and democracy by helping local political actors reform the country’s social contract instead of focusing on preserving stability. In Security and Defence Fernando del Pozo returns to the Bucharest Summit to report on what expectations have been fulfilled or have fallen short and why, on new expectations and on the way ahead.

In International Economy and Trade, Lara Lázaro–Touza presents a working paper on climate change in Spain, thoroughly analysing its causes, consequences and response. Finally, our Senior Analyst for the Image of Spain Abroad and Public Opinion, Javier Noya, presents the 17th Wave of the Barometer of the Elcano Royal Institute (BRIE), a periodic survey carried out three times a year that considers Spanish public opinion on foreign policy issues.

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17th Wave of the Barometer of the Elcano Royal Institute
The 17th edition of the BRIE –a survey carried out three times a year of a sample of 1,200 people considered a fair cross–section of the Spanish population– is focused on issues like the role of Spanish foreign policy, the Lisbon treaty, the candidates of the U.S Elections 2008, and China, Tibet and the Olympic Games.

The Lisbon Treaty: A Preliminary Study (WP)
José Martín y Pérez de Nanclares
In 2007 the Heads of State and Government of the 27 Member States of the EU signed a Treaty by virtue of which the European Union Treaty (EUT) and the constitutional Treaty of the European Community Treaty (ECT) were modified, opening a new process of ratification which, if successful, should lead in 2009 to a new reformed EUT and to a Draft Treaty of the European Union (DTEU) to replace the present ECT. This implies the possible end to one of the gravest crises ever suffered in the process of European integration.

Turkey’s Conundrum: Are the Country’s Versions of Secularism and Political Islam Compatible? (WP)
William Chislett
Two concepts of secularism are on trial in Turkey, where the Constitutional Court is studying a case to ban the ruling Justice and Development party (AKP). Whatever the outcome of the case, it will intensify the growing cleavage between the AKP and the secular establishment and hence have repercussions on Turkey’s already protracted bid to become a full member of the European Union (EU).

Caution: The Irish Might Guillotine Lisbon (ARI)
Hugo Brady
Irish voters are going to the polls on 12 June in the only referendum in Europe on the Lisbon Treaty.

Document of Interest
EU – European Parliament – European Parliament resolution of 21 May 2008 on Turkey’s 2007 progress report (2007/2269(INI))
This document of the European Parliament is the latest progress report on Turkey, adopted by a large majority of 467 for, 62 against and 61 abstentions.

 
The Cuban Economy at the Crossroads: Fidel Castro’s Legacy, Debate over Change and Raúl Castro’s Options (WP)
Carmelo Mesa-Lago
This Working Paper evaluates the current status of the Cuban economy (Fidel Castro’s legacy), analyses the debate that emerged after a speech Raúl delivered on 26 July 2007 and explores the course of possible reforms.

Potential Flashpoints in South America (II): Could the situation in Bolivia spark a regional war? (ARI)
Carlos Malamud and Carlota García Encina
The critical political, institutional, ethnic and social situation in Bolivia today, aggravated by the referendum on political autonomy held in several regions, could lead to a worrying level of regional instability. 

Document of Interest
ECLAC – Structural Change and Productivity Growth, 20 Years Later. Old problems, new opportunities
This document of the Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC) was submitted to delegates at its 32nd Session held in Santo Domingo (Dominican Republic). According to the report, “countries in the region should make the most of the global expansion to promote a process of productive transformation and capacity–building to enable them to broaden and modify their traditional modes of international insertion, adding value and knowledge to their products.

 
Leadership and American Foreign Policy
Joseph S. Nye, Jr.
Conference by Joseph S. Nye, Jr. at the bilateral seminar on ‘Foreign Policy Priorities for the Next US President’, held in Madrid on 19 May 2008 and organised by the Center for Strategic & International Studies (CSIS) and the Elcano Royal Institute, with the cooperation of the Spanish Ministry of Foreign Affairs and Cooperation.

Document of Interest
The White House – 2008 U.S–EU Summit Declaration
These are the conclusions of the U.S–EU Summit held on 10 June in Brdo (Slovenia). The meeting focused on the U.S–European commercial relationship, the Doha development agenda, climate change, energy security, African development and the Transatlantic Economic Council (TEC); it also reviewed global security and peace issues like the development of Kosovo, the follow up on the Annapolis peace, the dual track strategy regarding Iran, and the situation in Lebanon, Afghanistan, Iraq, Darfur and Zimbabwe.

Chad: Democratisation Challenges and Limits of International Intervention (ARI)
Paul–Simon Handy
International interventions in Chad such as the European EUROFOR Chad must address structural problems linked to governance and democracy by helping Chadian political actors to reform the country’s social contract instead of focusing in preserving stability and, thus, becoming part of the problem and not of the solution.

Document of Interest
UN Security Council – Report of the Secretary–General on the deployment of the African Union–United Nations Hybrid Operation in Darfur
According to the UN Secretary–General’s report to the Security Council –published on 9 May– the security situation throughout Darfur remained extremely volatile. The report covers significant developments during the month of April 2008, including the security and humanitarian situation in Darfur. It also provides an update on the Darfur political process.

 
Spain, Lebanon and UNIFIL (WP)
George Emile Irani
This study assesses the causes and results of the war in the summer of 2006 and its implications for local, regional and global politics. It also focuses on Spain’s military involvement in Lebanon, especially on the relationship between the Spanish UNIFIL contingent and the local population in South Lebanon.

After NATO’s Bucharest Summit (ARI)
Fernando del Pozo
In general terms NATO’s Bucharest Summit has been a success. The outcome was less satisfactory regarding the design of a new Strategic Concept, but the hope is that the Declaration on Alliance Security should lead to progress being made for the next Summit, to be held in the spring of 2009 in Strasbourg and Kehl.

Document of Interest
SIPRI – SIPRI Yearbook 2008: Armaments, Disarmament and International Security
Highlights of the 39th edition of the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI) Yearbook include special studies on the human security approach to direct and structural violence, integrating gender in post–conflict security sector reform, US ballistic missile defence programmes, nuclear forensic analysis, international public health diplomacy and the global surveillance of avian influenza, along with coverage of developments during 2007.

Document of Interest
Department of Foreign Affairs (Ireland) – Convention on Cluster Munitions 2008
The new Convention on Cluster Munitions was adopted by delegations from 111 countries in Dublin (Ireland) on 30 May 2008 and will open for signature in December in Oslo, Norway. This international treaty will enter into force six months after at least 30 countries ratify it. The Convention will prohibit participating countries from using, producing, developing or transferring cluster munitions.

Climate change in Spain: Friend and Foe. Causes, consequences and response (WP)
Lara Lázaro–Touza
Climate change is unequivocal and Spain is one of the most vulnerable countries within the EU. The consequences for the Spanish economy will vary depending on the sector analysed. Tourism, the construction sector and the insurance sector stand to lose if mitigation and adaptation are further delayed.

Document of Interest
IPCC – IPCC Proceedings on Renewable Energy
This documents are the proceedings of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Scoping Meeting on Renewable Energy Sources, held from 20 to 25 June 2008 in L?beck (Germany).

Document of Interest
UNEP – Africa: Atlas of Our Changing Environment
This atlas focuses on how development choices, population growth, climate change and conflicts are impacting the region’s natural assets. It was compiled by the UN Environment Programme (UNEP) and includes access by table of contents, site images, interactive maps, and more.

Towards Mediterranean Migration Management 2008? Developing Discourse and Practices (ARI)
Michael Collyer
Ongoing EU negotiations with the African Union have identified a number of clear, achievable steps, which might bring more positive ideals of Mediterranean migration management a little closer.

African Remittances and Progress: Opportunities and Challenges (ARI)
Anna Lindley
Sixteen million international migrants originate from sub–Saharan Africa and remittance flows have grown in the last few years, but their impact on development remains unclear.

Document of Interest
OECD – African Economic Outlook 2008
The 7th edition of the African Economic Outlook (AEO) – an annual report published by the Organisation for Economic Co–operation and Development (OECD) – is focused on technical skills development. The AEO reviews the recent economic situation, the likely short–term evolution, and the social and political context of selected African economies.