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INTRODUCTION
Our Newsletter offers
our readers the latest working papers and analyses published in
English by the Institute, including links to documents of interest
found on the Internet. Our web site’s Spanish section presents many
more documents, produced both by our own and by external
analysts.
Our May Newsletter starts with Inside Spain, the
usual section by William Chislett, which provides our readers with
an update on recent events in Spain. In the field of Foreign
Policy Chislett explains how Spain, which will be the main
loser of EU funds in the next six-year budgetary period as a result
of the Union’s enlargement, may receive a much smaller amount for a
couple of years. Luxembourg, the current president of the EU, has
accepted, in principle, that the country should be given a
transitional phase. On a different issue, the US base in Rota
(southern Spain) is one of two sites being studied by the US to
house all Washington’s anti-terrorist units in Europe, particularly
those operating against al-Qaeda; the other site is Sigonella,
Sicily. Also concerning Spain’s relations with the US, and in what
looked like a concerted action to win friends and influence and get
relations fully back on track, four ministers made official visits
to Washington.
On the Domestic scene, the elections in the
Basque country, which looked as if they had dealt a blow to the
aspirations of centre-right nationalists campaigning for an
‘associated free state’ with Spain and strengthened the hand of the
Socialist central government in Madrid –which says the plan is
illegal–, have resulted in a more complicated scenario. On another
tack, the government’s legalisation of same-sex marriage has angered
the new papacy of Benedict XVI, which has called on municipal
officials to refuse to officiate at gay wedding ceremonies. In the
judicial field, the trial of 9/11 terror suspects begins in Madrid:
the alleged head of an al-Qaeda cell in Spain and 23 other people,
part of a group of 41 indicted suspects, are charged with helping to
plan the attacks in 2001 in New York and Washington; prosecutors
called for more than 60,000 years in jail –25 for each of the more
than 2,000 people killed–.
Some interesting new data: Spain’s
population has reached 44 million: the sharp rise in immigrants, as
opposed to births, continued to push up Spain’s population, which
stood at almost 44 million at the beginning of 2005, 770,000 more
than a year earlier. For the first time, just over 2 million of the
total number of foreigners (4.75% of the population) are legal
residents. In this respect, the largest-ever amnesty for illegal
immigrants in Europe, which ended on May 7, saw more than 500,000
people regularise their situation.
On the Economic front, Chislett reports on how
Spain’s stated jobless rate reached a 25-year low of 10.2% at the
end of the first quarter. There were 2,099,500 unemployed, close to
60,000 fewer than in the same period of 2004. On the other hand,
Spain’s productivity per hour worked is the third lowest in the
EU-15, only ahead of Greece and Portugal, but behind all other
countries: boosting the country’s productivity is one of the
priorities of the government’s economic policy. And, according to a
report by the OECD, Spain provides one of the most generous pensions
to full-career workers on average earnings.
Our Highlights this month include a working paper by José I.
Torreblanca, our Senior Analyst for Europe, which
provides some clues to understand Spain’s position when negotiating
the 2007-13 EU budget: Spain runs the risk, he writes, of bearing
the burden of Eastern enlargement alone: because it might become a
net contributor to the budget before having reached real convergence
with the EU-15, the negotiations on the next financial perspectives
can be depicted as the most crucial of all those which Spain has
been involved in so far. Ga?tane Ricard-Nihoul and Morgan Larhant
analyse the paradoxes that appear when the French referendum on the
European Constitution is considered from abroad: first, although the
major political parties have officially endorsed the text, there is
still an enormous uncertainty as to the outcome. Secondly, although
only the first two parts of the text present new elements, the
debate has so far centred on the third part.
Also in Europe, but within our Defence and
Security area, Enrique Esquivel describes the new European
Gendarmerie Force, which will undoubtedly become a valuable asset in
all kinds of crisis management operations. Also in this area, Ignacio Cosidó writes an
ARI explaining how the Spanish defence industry has gone through a
decade of strong growth, a growth model which appears to have run
its course: Spain’s industrial sector must be adapted to an
increasingly integrated European defence market and to the new
strategic and technological demands of the Armed Forces.
Our second highlight falls under our USA and
Transatlantic Dialogue Area, where Soeren Kern, our Senior
Analyst, writes about the New Transatlantic Agenda (NTA),
established in 1995 with the aim of reducing transatlantic tensions:
ten years later, the number of US-European disputes has multiplied
and transatlantic relations are at their worst since 1945.
The third highlight, within Latin America, is by
Román D. Ortiz, who analyses how President Uribe’s Democratic
Defence and Security Policy to restore order has seen significant
success and has reduced levels of violence; however, to attain total
pacification of the country, a number of challenges must yet be
overcome.
Under Demography & Population, our Senior
Analyst Rickard Sandell analyses the differences between the
population forecasts of two institutions: the European Commission
published a Green Paper on March 16 (Confronting Demographic
Change) which contrasts with the population data produced by
the Spanish Instituto Nacional de Estadística.
In another working paper, this one within International
Economy and Trade, Gayle Allard and Rafael Pampillón ask
themselves what the advantages of foreign direct investment are for
the country that receives it: this has become an important debate in
recent decades, ever since flows of foreign capital began to have a
significant influence on Western economies.
We remind our readers that those who do not wish to continue
receiving both our English-language Newsletter and our
Spanish-language Boletín should inform us at /wps/myportal/rielcano_in/Newsletter
of their preference for one or the other version. |
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 INSIDE SPAIN, by William
Chislett
Inside Spain, by William Chislett, provides
our readers with an update on recent events in Spain. In this issue
he comments on Spain’s loss of EU funds in the next six-year
budgetary period as a result of the Union’s enlargement, and on the
possibility of a transitional phase to soften the impact. He also
discusses efforts by the Spanish government to repair relations with
the US, with four ministerial visits in rapid succession, and on the
possibility of the US making its base in Rota (southern Spain) the
centre of its anti-terrorist units in Europe. On the domestic side,
he comments on the complex situation brought about by the elections
in the Basque Country, the difficulties brought about by the
approval of same-sex marriages, the trial of 9/11 terror suspects in
Madrid, interesting new demographic data which sheds some light on
immigration and recent figures on unemployment and
productivity.
ANALYSES
EUROPE
Farewell to
funds? Keys to understanding Spain’s position when negotiating the
2007-20013 EU budget (WP)
Author:José I.
Torreblanca
Provided
that the French vote “Yes” in the referendum on the 29th May, the
European Council meeting in June this year is set out for reaching a
budgetary deal for the 2007-2013. However, as economic stagnation in
the Euro-area leads the richest EU countries to increasingly see the
way out of their economic problems in reducing their contribution to
the EU budget, Spain runs the risk of bearing in solitaire the
burden of Eastern enlargement. Having been agricultural expenditure
shielded from any substantial cuts due to the Franco-German
agreement of October 2002, most of the money currently on the
negotiation table is the cohesion and structural money from which
Spain benefits so much. Because Spain risks to become a net
contributor to the budget before having reached real convergence
with the EU-15, the negotiations on the next financial perspectives
(2007-2013) can be depicted as the most crucial of all those which
Spain has been involved so far. Why so?
How
to explain the unexpected: An Assessment of the French
Constitutional Referendum (ARI)
Authors:Ga?tane
Ricard-Nihoul & Morgan Larhant
When the
French referendum on the European Constitution is considered from
abroad it appears to be full of paradoxes. First, although the major
political parties have officially endorsed the text, there is still
an enormous uncertainty as to the outcome. All the polls since
mid-march have indeed placed the ‘no’ side in a leading position.
Secondly, although only the first two parts of the text present new
elements, the debate has so far centered on the third part.
Document of Interest-
A
French ‘no’: looming crisis for Europe?
Perhaps
amidst the plethora of articles pouring out in the press and on
websites on the implications of a French ''no'' to the EU
constitution on May 29, it is helpful to pause and first briefly
ask, what if the French vote ''yes''? The outpouring of dire
warnings around the implications of a ''no'' vote, mean that if in
fact a ''yes'' vote is produced it almost risks being undervalued as
a result, treated as an aberration relative to the opinion polls, as
the EU somehow squeezing through against the odds. But in fact if
the French vote ''yes'' and – another uncertain if – if the Dutch
too then vote ''yes'' a few days later, this would in fact represent
unstoppable forward momentum on the constitution and genuine
democratic support for the EU overall.
USA-TRANSATLANTIC
DIALOGUE
Why the New Transatlantic Agenda Should, but
Won’t be Reformed (ARI)
Author:Soeren Kern
Following the
creation of the European Union in November 1993, the New
Transatlantic Agenda (NTA) was launched at the December 1995 EU-US
Summit in Madrid in order to establish the basic structural link
between Washington and Brussels. Together with the 1998
Transatlantic Economic Partnership (TEP), the NTA provides a vast
and complex institutional framework at the senior level for managing
transatlantic differences. In fact, the NTA has played a key role in
moderating the ebb and flow of transatlantic tensions, especially
those involving economics and trade. But the most acrimonious
transatlantic disputes involve high politics issues such as the use
of force and questions about world order. Paradoxically, these
issues
Document of Interest-
Six
attainable transatlantic goals
Transatlantic
relations stand at a crucial point. The mood of pragmatism evident
since Mr Bush''s re-election last November continues to prevail on
both sides of the Atlantic. But it has more of the hallmarks of a
fragile ceasefire than of a new phase of strategic transatlantic
engagement. And its rhetoric has yet to be translated into action.
How can the US administration and its European counterparts best
build on their stated desire to place transatlantic co-ordination at
the heart of their foreign policies? We suggest a different
approach. Today, trying to build new institutional structures of
coordination to replace those that sustained the Atlantic Alliance
during the cold war is premature. We should not underestimate the
deep damage done to transatlantic relations during the bruising
debate over Iraq two years ago.
DEFENCE &
SECURITY
The
Spanish Defence Industry in the Face of Sector Consolidation in
Europe (ARI)
Author:Ignacio Cosidó
The Spanish defence industry has gone through a
decade of strong growth, largely as a result of its participation
in large-scale programmes for the procurement of military platforms. However, this growth
model appears to have run its course
and Spain’s industrial sector must be adapted to an increasingly
integrated European defence market and to the new strategic and
technological demands of the Armed Forces
The
new European Gendarmerie Force
(ARI)
Author:Enrique Esquivel
The
purpose of this analysis is to describe the new force, the European
Gendarmerie Force, which undoubtedly is to become a valuable asset
in all kinds of crisis management operations. We will review what it
involves, how it was created, what are its lines of action and,
finally, its place within the European framework.
Document of Interest-
Aptitude
for Destruction 
Better
ways are needed to understand how terrorist groups become more
effective and dangerous. Learning is the link between what a group
wants to do and its ability to actually do it; therefore, a better
understanding of group learning might contribute to the design of
better measures for combating terrorism. This study analyzes current
understanding of group learning and the factors that influence it
and outlines a framework that should be useful in present analytical
efforts and for identifying areas requiring further study.
LATIN AMERICA
The Uribe Administration’s Security Strategy:
Balancing Opportunities and Challenges
(ARI)
Author:Román D. Ortiz
President
Uribe’s Democratic Defence and Security Policy to restore order has
seen significant success and has substantially reduced levels of
violence, generating a new climate of security. However, to attain
total pacification of the country, a number of challenges must yet
be overcome, since the guerrillas have a huge capacity for
destabilisation and the success of the process of demobilisation of
paramilitary units is far from guaranteed
The impact of US foreign direct investment in Spain
(WP)
Author:Gayle Allard, Rafael Pampillón
On the
basis of theory and empirical evidence, we can predict that US
direct investment in Spain will prove to have contributed to the country’s economic
growth, raised its technological level and possibly its
productivity, increased its exports and provided its workforce with
better-paid, higher-skilled jobs than those offered by local
companies.
This study sets out precisely to determine
whether the macroeconomic statistics bear out our prediction that
these effects have occurred in
Spain.
Document of Interest-
Statistical
Yearbook for Latin American and the Caribbean, 2004 
The 2004
edition of the Statistical Yearbook for Latin America and
the Caribbean contains an updated selection of the main
statistical series available on economic and social trends in Latin
America and the Caribbean. It represents an effort by the ECLAC
Statistics and Economic Projections Division to harmonize the
figures and make them internationally comparable. The electronic
version of the Yearbook permits to download annual series from 1980
onwards in Excel format.
DEMOGRAPHY &
POPULATION
Spain’s
Population: The bigger the better? Ways of guessing the future
(ARI)
Author:Rickard Sandell
On March 16
the European Commission published a “Green Paper” on Confronting
Demographic change. This analysis contrasts the findings of the
Green Paper with population data produced by the Spanish “Instituto
Nacional de Estadística”. The main purpose of this paper is to
analyse the differences of the two institutions population
forecasts. The result of this analysis is then used to trigger a
debate about defining an immigration target that is both acceptable
to the Spanish public opinion and comply with the country’s
socio-economic needs for immigration.
Document of Interest-
Green
Green Paper on Demographic Change 
The EU is
facing unprecedented demographic changes that will have a major
impact on the whole of society. Figures in the Green Paper on
Demographic Change by the Commission show that from now until 2030
the EU will lack 20.8 million (6.8 per cent) people (*) of working
age. In 2030 roughly two active people (15-65) will have to take
care of one inactive person (65+). And Europe will have 18 million
children and young people fewer than today.
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