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ARI (Analisis of the Real Instituto Elcano) :
The course of the Mexican economy in 2004 ARI Nº 193/2004 - 16.12.2004 Alfredo Arahuetes García The deceleration of the Mexican economy, which began in 2001 due to the sharp drop in activity in the US market –producing negative GDP growth of 0.1%–, was followed by two years of stagnation during which the Mexican economy achieved a significant degree of stability. These past three years have now given way, in 2004, to a recovery based mainly on the dynamism of exports, accompanied by the recovery of investment in associated sectors. For this reason, consolidation will depend on whether the current uncertainties in the international economy –derived from the American economy, which is the main market for Mexican exports– are dispelled and on the complex process of boosting the dynamism of the domestic market
Gibraltar: Alternative Diplomacy ARI Nº 198/2004 (Translation from Spanish) - 22.12.2004 Luis Romero Bartumeus The Spanish Government’s new policy on Gibraltar implies once again lending importance to the idea, based on proximity, cooperation and dialogue with all parties involved (including the Gibraltarians and their leaders), of aiming to remove distrust and create an adequate climate for reaching agreements, without impositions, but also without relinquishing the notion of recovering sovereignty.
Arafat and Palestine: An Onerous Legacy ARI Nº 194/2004 (Translation from spanish) - 17.12.2004 Samuel Hadas The death of Palestinian leader Yasser Arafat begins a new era, say politicians, experts and analysts around the world. Most of the hundreds if not thousands of comments published in recent weeks agree that his passing could at least make it possible to reopen the window of opportunity brusquely closed so many times before (some even consider it ‘a great doorway opened wide’). Indeed, the window is open a crack, but instead of the breeze of hope that many predict and desire, the winds of war could well blow again, closing the window for the umpteenth time if the leaders of both sides and the powers involved do not act coherently
North Korea in the second Bush administration ARI Nº 190/2004 (Translation from Spanish) - 5.1.2004 Pablo Bustelo US policy on the nuclear crisis with North Korea may become both more active and stricter in the wake of President Bush’s re-election and the changes unveiled in his administration. If Washington decides to up the pressure on Pyongyang, either to force North Korea to capitulate, or to bring about regime change in the country, tension could mount rather than subside, causing an unnecessary escalade in the conflict. Defusing the crisis, on the other hand, requires greater flexibility and creativity on the part of the US, which is indeed what South Korea, China and Russia have been demanding for some time
Can the United Nations Be Reformed? ARI Nº 200/2004 - 23.12.2004 Soeren Kern United Nations Secretary General Kofi Annan on 2 December released his much anticipated report on internal reform. The report proposes to reshape the UN to make it both more effective and more equitable. It contains many sensible proposals that touch on everything from nuclear proliferation to looming pandemics. Nevertheless, most of the debate about the future of the UN revolves around the question of American power and influence. Indeed, the report includes proposals that set out to contain the use of US military force. This will play into the hands of powerful anti-UN voices in American politics, with the effect that few if any of the reform proposals will be implemented
Spanish-US Economic Relations: How Important are the Aznar-Zapatero Gyrations? ARI Nº 197/2004 - 22.12.2004 Paul Isbell While the Spanish-US economic relationship arguably remains relatively underdeveloped, our tentative conclusion is that the impact on the bilateral economic relationship of the Aznar-Zapatero gyrations in Spain’s political relationship with the US has proved relatively insignificant and is likely to remain marginal in the future
EU-Turkey Membership Deal, Subject to de facto Recognition of Greek Cyprus ARI Nº 196/2004 - 20.12.2004 William Chislett This report examines the historic agreement taken by European Union leaders at their 16-17 December summit in Brussels to begin accession talks with Turkey after 41 years in Europe’s ante-room. The process will begin on 3 October, 2005 provided Turkey has by then tacitly recognised Cyprus, which joined the EU in May. Turkey invaded the island in 1974 and it has been divided since then. Both the previous Popular Party government (1996-2004) and the current Socialist administration have been among the most active supporters of Turkey’s membership
Spanish speakers get together to discuss the future of their language ARI Nº 183/2004 - 1.12.2004 Jaime Otero Following the conferences held at Zacatecas (Mexico) in 1997 and Valladolid (Spain) in 2001, Spanish speakers have gathered for the third time for an international conference to debate on the present and future of the Spanish language. The prospects for what many consider the world’s second international language after English are promising, although some clouds have yet to be dispelled with regard to the educational and technological progress of its speakers
China’s military modernisation and the possible end to the EU arms embargo (ARI) ARINº 176/2004 (Translation from Spanish) - 1/12/2004 Augusto Soto The recent end to the EU arms embargo on Libya, announced in Luxemburg on 11 October, has raised new speculation as to a similar measure with respect to the People’s Republic of China (PRC). The country’s armed forces have been undergoing a comprehensive modernisation process over the past decade, but they will not close the technology gap with more advanced countries (something of an embarrassment for an upcoming power) without foreign support. France and Germany lead the interest in lifting the embargo, which was imposed following the Tiananmen repression, and they are supported by Spain
Why the United States Will Remain Assertive Abroad ARI Nº 182/2004 - 1.12.2004 Soeren Kern President George W. Bush’s nomination of Condoleezza Rice as Secretary of State is certain to put a more assertive stamp on US foreign policy during the next four years. By replacing Colin Powell, who frequently strayed from White House orthodoxy, Bush has signalled that he is determined to fix a dysfunctional relationship that hampered the execution of his foreign policy during his first term. Similar moves at the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) and the National Security Council (NSC) show that Bush aims to take full control of his national security bureaucracy, and imply that he and Vice President Dick Cheney will dominate all aspects of US foreign policy decision-making
Leasing of public farmland in Morocco ARI Nº 175/2004 (Translation from Spanish) - 30.11.2004 Iñigo Moré The area offered for tender is the equivalent of 100,000 football pitches and represents an interesting business opportunity. It is also an opportunity to strengthen Moroccan-European relations in a sector that is the backbone of the Moroccan economy and an area of great sensitivity for the European Union.
The Issues of the Bush Victory in 2004: Terrorism, But Not Moral Values ARI Nº 177/2004 (Translation from Spanish) - 16.11.2004 Josep M. Colomer This paper analyses the issues that decisively shaped the election agenda during the United States presidential campaign and election of 2 November 2004. It can be expected that, during his second term, President George W. Bush will find different degrees of popular support to pursue new policy initiatives on various issues
What We Learned from the US Presidential Election ARI Nº 170/2004 - 4.11.2004 Soeren Kern The decisive re-election of President George W. Bush –with larger Republican majorities in both houses of Congress– confirms that the United States is a centre-right country. Nevertheless, the country remains divided. Indeed, the campaign highlighted cultural divisions within American society that in many ways reflect the source of the current tensions in trans-Atlantic relations
Morocco is Failing to Take Off ARI Nº 145/2004 (Translation from Spanish) - 27.9.2004 Haizam Amirah Fernández When Mohammed VI took power in 1999, great hopes were raised both inside and outside Morocco. Five years later, discontent and disappointment are growing more quickly than the promised reforms
The Human Touch: Kerry vs Bush in the White House ARI Nº 168/2004 - 2.11.2004 Tomas Valasek Does it matter whether George W. Bush is re-elected to a second term? While there is little doubt that most Europeans would prefer a changing of the guard in the White House, it is equally true that on issues that most exasperate America’s allies on the old continent, the US president’s hands are tied. So is Europe not deluding itself in attaching so much importance to a changing of the guard? Or, on the contrary, could a different president make substantial changes in US policies towards Europe
Bush versus Kerry: The Economy in the Balance? (ARI - Part III) ARI Nº 164/2004 - 29.10.2004 Paul Isbell Beyond what each candidate broadly claims he would do with the economy, and given the global economic context, what is most likely to happen in the alternative economic scenarios of a Bush or a Kerry Presidency?
Bush versus Kerry: The Economy in the Balance? (ARI - Part II) ARI Nº 163/2004 - 29.10.2004 Paul Isbell What kind of international economic context will a President Bush or a President Kerry face? What does it imply for either candidate’s future potential room for manoeuvre?
Bush versus Kerry: The Economy in the Balance? ARI Nº 161/2004 - 26.10.2004 Paul Isbell Before the US presidential debates, it was widely agreed that while a majority of Americans still placed more faith in George Bush in matters concerning national security, most believed that John Kerry would deal with economic issues more effectively and fairly than has (or would) President Bush. Furthermore, while a growing consensus of analysts now claim –almost to the point of cliché– that the foreign policy stances of the two candidates are not radically different from each other their positions on economic matters do appear to be quite distinct and materially different
The Latino Vote in 2004 ARI Nº 157/2004 - 19.10.2004 Rodolfo O. de la Garza This article explores how electoral structures and partisanship interact with the size and distribution of the Hispanic population to shape the role Latinos will play in the 2004 presidential election
European Commission Recommends Accession Negotiations with Turkey, but with Certain Conditions ARI Nº 152/2004 - 7.10.2004 William Chislett This report analyses the European Commission’s landmark report on Turkey and its momentous recommendation to the next European Council meeting on December 17 in Brussels to start accession negotiations, 41 years after the country became an associate member of the then EEC. The Commission also issued a detailed impact study. Both the previous Popular Party government (1996-2004) and the current Socialist administration have been among the most active supporters of Turkey’s membership
What We Learned from the US Presidential Debate ARI Nº 151/2004 - 6.10.2004 Soeren Kern The first debate of this year’s presidential campaign was about foreign policy–which candidate could best protect America in a dangerous world–. Overall, George W Bush and his Democratic challenger, John F Kerry, did not raise many new arguments. And in substance the two men share almost the exact same views on most major foreign policy issues, even if they differ in style. Nevertheless, the debate did offer some interesting details about how the candidates believe America should pursue its goals in the world
Geopolitical implications of the Darfur conflict ARI Nº 141/2004 (Translation from Spanish) - 20.9.2004 Carlos Ruiz Miguel The origins of the genocide in Darfur (50,000 killed, 1,200,000 displaced and 200,000 refugees in Chad, according to estimates) and the responses to it involve factors both internal and external to Sudan. The balance of interests in play are interfering with this tragedy, making it much more difficult to solve
Barroso’s Labours ARI Nº 150/2004 - 4.10.2004 Álvaro de Vasconcelos The central issue for the new President of the European Commission, José Manuel Durão Barroso, is whether he will be able to regain for the Commission the central role in the construction of Europe that it had in the past, and thereby reverse the tendency towards a ‘loss of authority’ that both Jacques Santer and Romano Prodi were unable to put a stop to
Bush or Kerry: Why the Substance of US Foreign Policy Will Not Change ARI Nº 148/2004 - 29.9.2004 Soeren Kern This is the biggest foreign-policy election in the United States since 1968. Because preventing nuclear terrorism will be the defining national security issue of the next administration, Iraq, Iran and North Korea will dominate US national security concerns. This means that US foreign policy will not fundamentally shift from the past four years, even if John Kerry wins the White House
Bush, Kerry and Iran ARI Nº 144/2004 - 24.9.2004 Soeren Kern Whether it’s Bush or Kerry in the White House next year, defusing the nuclear proliferation crisis with Iran –which many analysts believe will acquire nuclear weapons within the next four years– will constitute one of the most complex and pressing challenges facing the next administration
Calle Ocho and the Embargo: The Evolution of Cuban American Views on US-Cuba Policy[1] ARI Nº 140/2004 - 20.9.2004 Richard A. Figueroa This ARI analyses the influence of Hispanics on American foreign policy by focusing on the important role that Cuban Americans have played in maintaining a hallmark policy of the United States in fighting Communism: the Cuban Embargo
The New Legislative and Budgetary Competences of the European Parliament in the European Constitution ARI Nº 129/2004 (Translation from spanish) - 20.7.2004 Manuel Delgado-Iribarren García Campero This article looks at the new legislative and budgetary competences of the European Parliament under the Treaty establishing a Constitution for the European Union, according to the text approved by the Heads of State or Government of the EU at the summit meeting held in Brussels on 18 June 2004. In quoting the text the article uses the consolidated version drawn up by the General Secretariat of the Council on 2 July 2004 (CIG 86/04)
Ratification of the Constitution of the EU: A Minefield ARI Nº 120/2004 (Translation from spanish) - 7.7.2004 Carlos Closa Montero On 18 June the Brussels summit gave the go-ahead to the draft Constitution which now moves into its final phase. The text has to be ratified, unanimously, by all Member States through a variety of procedures, so there is still a real possibility of the whole process floundering. This article is a brief survey of the ratification procedures to be employed and the pitfalls that might appear. It also looks at the possible effects on the legitimacy of the Union
Talk given by Spain’s Under-Secretary of State for Foreign Affairs at the seminar held at El Escorial on ‘The New World (Dis)order’ 15.7.2004 Bernardino León Text of the Talk given by Spain’s Under-Secretary of State for Foreign Affairs at the seminar held at El Escorial on ‘The New World (Dis)order’
Development prospects for Paraguay under the government of President Duarte Frutos ARI Nº 128/2004 - 20.7.2004 Andrew Nickson Plagued by political corruption, the recent economic performance of Paraguay has been dismal. For the first time since the transition to democracy began in 1989, the government of President Duarte Frutos is now laying the basis for improved governance and sustainable development
Hispano-Argentine relations and Basque terrorism ARI Nº 116/2004 (Translation from Spanish) - 30.6.2004 Carlos Malamud On 17 June the Argentine federal judge Claudio Bonadío threw out the request for extradition of the presumed Basque terrorist Jesús María Iriondo presented by the Spanish judge Baltasar Garzón. The aim of this article is to analyse how this will affect bilateral relations between Spain and Argentina, which of late both sides had been attempting to improve
Saudi Arabia in 2004: Can it survive the terrorist threat? ARI Nº 119/2004 - 5.7.2004 Jean-François Seznec This paper will try to present a view of the socio-political structure of the kingdom of Saudi Arabia today and estimate whether the present system can handle the congruant stresses of unemployment among the young, the call for jihad by the extremists, the rift between the United States and Saudi Arabia at a time of uncertain leadership
European Growth: Myth, Reality and Necessity (Part II) ARI Nº 118/2004 - 5.7.2004 Paul Isbell Europe has lower per capita incomes than the US basically because it has traded off its striking productivity gains over the last 30 years for more leisure, rather than for more income. However, such a trade-off is not likely to remain feasible in the future, nor would it be wise for Europe to attempt to continue making it, if the EU wishes to maintain its economic model and make a positive difference in the world
European Growth: Myth, Reality and Necessity (Part I) ARI Nº 117/2004 - 5.7.2004 Paul Isbell While the perception that the US economy has left Europe far behind is exaggerated and distorted, it is true that Europe has not closed the per capita income gap with the US over the last three decades
Keys to Understanding Abstention in the European Elections ARI Nº 112/2004 (Translation from spanish) - 2.7.2004 José Ignacio Torreblanca Participation in the recent European elections has been of only 45.5%. This paper looks at the causes, and at some of the implications, of such a high level of abstention.
Access to Justice: Reflections on the Concept, the Theory and its Application to Latin America’s Judicial Reforms ARI Nº 109/2004 - 9.6.2004 Linn Hammergren Access to justice has become a central theme in Latin American judicial reforms. Its apparent simplicity belies considerable ambiguity as to its precise meaning, the benefits it confers, and thus the methods whereby it is best advanced. While often interpreted as just a question of getting more people to court, for at least the last three decades observers have noted the inadequacy of this definition. Once it is discarded, the implications for programmes to enhance access are far less clear. This short essay reviews some of these issues and suggests an alternative, if not exactly easier, way of defining and operationalizing the concept
The Socialist Government, the European Constitution and the Dual Majority (ARI) ARI Nº 103/2004 (Translated from Spanish) - 4/6/2004 José I. Torreblanca After a period of reflection lasting several weeks, the incoming Socialist government recently revealed which power-sharing formula for the Council of Ministers of the European Union it will defend at the intergovernmental conference (IGC) responsible for ratifying the draft European constitution. Spain's official position is that acts of the Council can be adopted only when they are sanctioned by a majority of member states and two thirds of the population (the formula known as '50-66')
The Reform of the EU's Cohesion Policy ARI Nº 100/2004 (Translation from Spanish) - 2.6.2004 José A. Herce and Simón Sosvilla-Rivero In part due to the natural convergence of the average Spanish income with the EU average and in part due to the arrival of new, poorer partners to the EU (the statistical effect), the resources allocated to cohesion will be directed towards the new members. As a result, Spain will no longer benefit from the cohesion fund and several regions could lose their structural aid after 2006. The Commission is finalising its proposals and the Council will decide on them in the coming months
From 9-11 to 3-11: Spain’s Role in the European Union ARI Nº 48/2004 (Translation from Spanish) - 2.6.2004 Carlos Closa Montero September 11 has had an impact on the EU and the processes underway since then, especially the negotiations on the Constitution. Now, March 11 poses new questions regarding the possible repercussions of the terrible terrorist attacks committed in Madrid.
On Altitude Sickness: Foreign Policy, Public Opinion and the Fight Against Terrorism ARI Nº 88/2004(Translation from Spanish) - 2.6.2004 Florentino Portero The effects of March 11 have brought about an important change in the way Spaniards perceive what their role should be in international affairs. The up-beat viewpoint of recent years, with Spain’s taking on significant responsibilities both in European and Atlantic affairs, has given way to a return to the old attitudes of withdrawal from active participation in international affairs that were characteristic of the period of 19th century prime minister Cánovas del Castillo. Spain is assuming a more secondary role, playing second fiddle to the big European powers and taking a more passive role in the fight against Islamist terrorism.
More than just a promise ARI Nº 83/2004 (Translation from Spanish) - 2.6.2004 Xavier Batalla José Luis Rodríguez Zapatero’s decision to repatriate immediately the Plus Ultra Brigade, deployed in the southern-central region of Iraq by the Aznar government, is more than simple fulfilment of an election pledge
Algeria after the re-election of Abdelaziz Bouteflika ARI Nº 87/2004 (Translation from Spanish) - 2.6.2004 Miguel Hernando de Larramendi Abdelaziz Bouteflika was re-elected president of the Republic of Algeria in the first round of presidential elections held on April 8, 2004. Repeated declarations of neutrality by the armed forces, as well as the willingness expressed by the Chief of the General Staff, Mohamed Lamari, to accept the victory of any candidate –including the leader of the Islah Islamist party, Abdallah Jabala– led international observers to take greater interest in these elections. On this occasion, unlike during the presidential elections of 1999, the other candidates did not withdraw, which helped make the elections appear relatively open and competitive. The weight of the armed forces in Algerian politics remains a decisive factor in any analysis of Algerian political and economic life. Bouteflika’s victory strengthens his position in the political system, though the unexpected magnitude of his win undermines the credibility of elections that were meant to give the world the impression that a democratizing process is underway after more than a decade of civil war –with the post-9/11 international context of the war against terrorism as a backdrop
Renegotiating the Nice Agreement: Spain in the European Parliament ARI Nº 105/2004 - 28.5.2004 Rickard Sandell This paper looks at the distribution of relative voting power in the European Parliament. It also explains why it is important for Spain to insist on defending its interests in the constitutional proposal for new voting procedures in the European Council
Tony Blair and the UK referendum on the European Union’s constitutional treaty ARI Nº 102/2004 - 28.5.2004 Peter Norman The author examines the British government’s decision to put the European Union’s constitutional treaty to a referendum of the British people and the risks this entails for its eventual ratification
The Future European Constitution: The Polish Point of View ARI Nº 97/2004 - 24.5.2004 Jan Barcz The author presents the Polish point of view on the controversy surrounding the decision-making process by a qualified majority in the future European Constitution
How to achieve the Millennium Development Goals: Some Suggestions for Spanish Cooperation (ARI) ARI 101/2004 (Translated from Spanish) - 18/5/2004 Clara García This Analysis suggests that development policies of both developing and donor countries should have a sharper focus on the MDGs, as well as on the particular characteristics of each country and population groups within each country. Such focus on the MDGs would require policies aimed at pro-poor growth and the provision of non-discriminatory social services, both of which could imply, in turn, major policy changes
Latin America and human rights in Cuba ARI Nº 75/2004(Translation from Spanish) - 5.5.2004 Carlos Malamud Meeting at its Geneva headquarters on April 15, the United Nations Human Rights Commission voted in favour (22 to 21, with 10 abstentions) of a resolution on the state of human rights in Cuba. Like every year, it was one of the key moments at the meeting of the Commission, which once again confronted the governments of Washington and Havana. The Latin American vote was decisive
For More Realistic and Efficient Spanish-Moroccan Relations (ARI) ARI 73/2004 - 4/5/2004 José María López Bueno Historically, the varying quality of Spanish-Moroccan relations has been determined almost exclusively by the vicissitudes of domestic politics in both countries. However, despite the numerous ups and downs, Perejil included, the official rhetoric has always expressed a ‘mutual desire to strengthen fruitful relations between fraternal nations’.It appears necessary to promote a more realistic framework for cross-border relations.
Foreign Policy Priorities of the Incoming Socialist Government: Tackle the Problem of the War in Iraq and Cut the Gordian Knot of the European Constitution ARI Nº 47/2004 - 4.5.2004 José Ignacio Torreblanca This report examines the repercussions of the socialist victory in the general elections of 14 March on Spanish foreign policy and the main problems the incoming Administration will have in implementing its foreign-policy election pledges
The enlargement of the European Union ARI 84/2004(Translation from Spanish) - 4.5.2004 Jorge Fuentes Monzonís-Vilallonga The recent EU enlargement taking in ten new members creates fresh expectations within the Continent that will influence community thinking during the next few years
Does al-Qaeda have a global strategy? ARI Nº 74/2004 (Translation from Spanish) - 4.5.2004 Haizam Amirah Fernández The attacks in Madrid on March 11 of this year are an example of how terrorists, when choosing a place, time and form of action, can help generate reactions which, in turn, have amplified consequences that serve their purposes. A demonstration of this tragic fact is how those who use terror for their political ends have developed an alarming capacity to analyze and predict events. Their understanding of the realities and mechanisms that govern open societies contrasts with the difficulties these societies face when attempting to predict the strategy and methods used by al-Qaedist groups
The Fight Against Islamist Terrorism After the March 11 Attacks: Lessons Learnt ARI Nº 41/2004 (Translation from Spanish) - 23.4.2003 Carlos Echeverría Jesús If there is one thing we should learn from recent terrorist actions, it is the terrorists’ ability to surprise us. This first large-scale Islamist attack in Europe has shown that what some dismissed as alarmist scaremongering has now become a reality. To combat this threat we need greater international coordination and cooperation than there has been so far, enhanced preventative capacity and a root-and-branch rethink of existing terrorist policies
The Madrid Massacre: The Iraq Connection ARI Nº 65/2004 (Translation from Spanish) - 21.4.2004 Juan Avilés The March 11 terrorist bomb attacks seem to have had two objectives: the general one of striking at the heart of Europe and the much more specific one of forcing a Spanish withdrawal from Iraq. This analysis explores the possibility of a connection between March 11 and the situation in Iraq
Benchmarks for Maximizing Spain’s Power Potential in the EU: The Implications of Assigning Voting Power Based on Real Population Size ARI Nº 72/2004 - 19.4.2004 Rickard Sandell This analysis provides an assessment of the optimal voting threshold for Spain in the likely event that the Nice treaty is abandoned for a system in which voting power in the European Union is decided by real population size.
Behind the Moroccan Terrorist Connection: State Policies and Saudi Wahhabism (ARI) ARI Nº 60/2004 - 31/3/2004 Abdeslam Maghraoui Contrary to what is usually believed, a survey by the Pew Research Center indicates that religious intolerance and radicalization is wide and deep in Moroccan society
The Madrid Massacre: Mistakes Made and Mistakes to be Avoided (ARI) ARI Nº 50/2004 - 31/3/2004 Juan Avilés The terrorist outrage of 3/11 was the work, according to available information, of an al-Qaeda cell, probably trying to force Spain to withdraw its troops from Iraq.
What Does 3-11 Mean for the Spanish, European and World Economies? (ARI) ARI Nº 52/2004 (Translated from Spanish) - 31/3/2004 Paul Isbell The 3-11 terrorist attacks raise a very important question: What impact could they have on the development of the current economic situation?
The European Union and its Fight Against Terrorism (ARI) ARI Nº 42/2004 (Translated from Spanish) - 31/3/2004 Félix Arteaga Martín As in the aftermath of 9-11, the 3-11 tragedy has made the fight against terrorism a priority on the EU’s political agenda
The Moroccan Combatant Group ARI Nº 51 /2004 (Translation from French) - 30.3.2004 Mohamed Darif The author analyzes Morocco’s most active radical Islamist group, reviewing its creation and the presence of Moroccan volunteers in Afghanistan, its relations with Osama Bin Laden and its logistic support to al-Qaeda and, finally, its shift in strategy following the attacks of 11 September 2001 towards more overt terrorist activities
A New Foreign Policy for Spain ARI Nº 37/2004 (Translated from Spanish) - 30/3/2004 Miguel Ángel Moratinos This is a full transcript of the conference by Miguel Ángel Moratinos, member of the advisory committee of the Secretary General of the Spanish Socialist Workers’ Party (Partido Socialista Obrero Español, PSOE). The conference was held on 10 March as part of a cycle organised by the Elcano Royal Institute, at which leading politicians presented the foreign policy programmes of their parties. Miguel Ángel Moratinos reviewed the current international scene and explained his party’s proposals for specific areas such as Europe, Latin America and the Arab World.
Terrorism Revisited (ARI) ARI Nº 59/2004 - 30/3/2004 Tomas Valasek One of the desired effects of the Madrid bombing seems to have been to splinter the Western alliance. The allies must see through the trap, acknowledge mistakes, produce a stricter definition of the threat of terrorism and create a new strategy for fighting its sources
No Need to Fear a Strong Euro: Facing the World Economy’s Gordian Knot in Europe (ARI) ARI Nº 58/2004 - 29/3/2004 Paul Isbell The appreciation of the euro over the last two years –a trend likely to continue into the future, despite a recent slip from US$1.29 to US$1.21– is not only a positive development for the European economy but also a prerequisite for a sustained period of global growth
Securitizing Migration after 11 March ARI Nº 56/2004 - 26.3.2003 James C. Ross This analysis draws on the recent experience of the United States to address perceived immigration risks since 9/11, and weighs the prospect of adopting similar approaches in Spain and the European Union following the 11 March terrorist attacks in Madrid
Possible consequences of the terrorist attacks in Madrid ARI Nº 40/2004 (Translation from Spanish) - 25.3.2004 Javier Jordán These are a series of considerations on the consequences of the attacks of 11 March, with some suggestions that may help stem the most negative effects
New threats from al-Qaeda ARI Nº 54/2004 - 24.3.2004 Juan Avilés (originally published in Spanish 30/11/2002) The events of the last few weeks underline the global threat posed by al-Qaeda, which will probably now turn to targets in Europe. Spain should pay particular attention to this risk
Terrorism in Morocco: a security concern for Spain ARI Nº 53/2004 - 24.3.2004 Domingo del Pino The terrorist attacks last May 16 in Casablanca force Spain to pay a greater attention to the state of Morocco’s internal affairs. Eventual instability in Morocco would affect Spain, given the importance of Spanish interests there, of their common sea and land borders and of the nature of the recurrent problems between the two countries. Following is an analysis of how Spanish interests would be affected if the recent attacks eventually led to instability in the Kingdom of Morocco
The Brazilian economy in Lula’s first year (Part II): the search for stability and the challenge of international insertion ARI Nº28/2004 - 17.3.2004 Alfredo Arahuetes García In the first part of this piece of research we analysed the performance of the Brazilian economy in 2003 and the key role assigned to fiscal policy in winning back the confidence of the financial markets and stabilising prices. In Part II we look at the state of the economy from an international standpoint, the difficulties encountered in reducing international vulnerability and Brazil’s complex insertion in the process of international globalisation in order to determine the possibilities of strengthening the balance of payments, Brazil’s ability to attract foreign investment and ways of improving the country’s liquidity and solvency ratios
The “silver bullet” option: anti-leadership strategies in the fight against terrorist organisations ARI Nº 30/2004 (Translation from Spanish) - 16.3.2004 Román D. Ortiz States threatened by terrorism, from the US to Russia and from Israel to Colombia, have pinned a large part of their hopes of ending violence on the use of surgical attacks on the leaders of the armed groups they confront. The trust placed in such anti-leadership actions, however, may be based more on political need than on solid strategic analysis
The Berlin summit, the leadership of the ‘Big Three’ and the future of the European Union ARI Nº 38/2004 - 15.3.2004 Charles Powell The summit on 18 February 2004 that brought together French President Jacques Chirac, German Chancellor Gerhard Schröder and British Prime Minister Tony Blair sparked a lively debate on the leadership sought by the ‘Big Three’ in the European Union, that will comprise 25 member States as from 1 May next.
The difficult rapprochement between Spain and Equatorial Guinea ARI Nº 18/2004 (Translation from Spanish) - 26.2.2004 Carlos Ruiz Miguel Various attempts have been made to improve the strained nature of the relationship between Spain and Equatorial Guinea. The strange incident involving the departure and sudden return of the naval vessels Patiño and Canarias demonstrates the difficulty of rebuilding relations between the two countries even at times when their interests appear to converge
Investment delocalization: challenges and opportunities ARI Nº 25/2004 - 25.2.2004 Pelayo Castro Zuzuárregui, Federico Steinberg The diversion of Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) from Spain to the new EU members through the growing practice of ‘delocalizing’ production units calls for new and innovative public policies to enable Spain to attract foreign investment in higher value-added sectors.
Confronting the Population Gravity Shift: Changes in the World Order? ARI Nº21/2004 - 17.2.2004 Rickard Sandell This analysis focuses on the potential shift in power relations as a result of the world’s changing demographic landscape, and how this is likely to influence the European outlook on the future
Truths and Untruths Concerning the Summit of the Americas ARI Nº 8/2004 (Translation from Spanish) - 11.2.2004 Carlos Malamud The recent Special Summit of the Americas, held in Monterrey, Mexico, awoke considerable interest among the international press. But press accounts of what took place relied more on commonplace than on analysis; journalists present proved better at description than serious reflection
The Role of International Cooperation in the Decentralisation Process in Low- and Middle-income Countries ARI Nº 11/2004 - 28.1.2004 Andrew Nickson ecentralisation has become a major priority for international development cooperation in recent years. Yet its impact has often fallen well below expectations. A more critical examination of such cooperation is necessary in order to avoid the pitfalls of the past and identify best practice for the future.However decentralisation is no panacea and the impact of national decentralisation programmes have often been disappointing
Towards a Cuba without Castros ARI Nº 6/2004 (Translation from Spanish) - 27.1.2004 Alcibíades J. Hidalgo Although simply an academic question for half a century, Cuba without Fidel Castro is now knocking on the door. Will it be succession, transition, peaceful change or another cycle of national violence? From here on, many parties –both in Cuba and elsewhere, including Europe– will play a role in the uncertain Cuban future
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