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ARI (Analisis of the Real Instituto Elcano) :
Coming Together: How a New Global Partnership on Development Cooperation was Forged at the Busan High Level Forum on Aid Effectiveness (ARI) ARI 164/2011 - 20/12/2011 Homi Kharas Adapting development cooperation to the new aid ecosystem requires an understanding of how new players and new circumstances are changing aid effectiveness.
Is the Eurozone crisis changing EU-China relations? (ARI) ARI 154/2011 - 22/11/2011 Alicia Sorroza The economic and financial crisis affecting Europe seems to be changing the map of the interests involved in the EU-China relationship.
Energy Alternatives for the Transport Sector: The US and the EU Move in Different Directions (ARI) ARI 155/2011 - 22/11/2011 Heikki Willstedt Mesa This ARI looks at the current developments in alternative fuels/technologies for road transport in the framework of rising international prices for conventional fuels and climate change mitigation efforts.
Relations between national parliaments and the European Parliament: opportunities and challenges (ARI) ARI 153/2011 - 22/11/2011 Daniel Ruiz de Garibay This paper provides an insight into how interparliamentary cooperation between national parliaments and the EP is evolving, what forms it is taking and what its main advantages and flaws are.
The European Commission’s 2011 Progress Report on Turkey: more than just a hollow ritual? (ARI) ARI 152/2011 - 22/11/2011 İlke Toygür The European Commission has released its 2011 Report on Turkey’s progress towards EU accession. Unfortunately, this is no more than following a ritual, a hollow gesture, since ‘progress’ is not that visible, especially considering that no new chapters have been opened following the Spanish Presidency in 2010.
Global Terrorism and Nuclear Proliferation after 9/11 (ARI) ARI 151/2011 - 21/11/2011 Robert S. Litwak Arguably, the more likely route by which terrorists might gain access to nuclear or other WMD capabilities is not through the possible collaboration between ‘rogue states’ and terrorist groups but through theft from improperly-secured sites in countries like Pakistan.
Australian Jihad: Radicalisation and Counter-Terrorism (ARI) ARI 140/2011 - 18/10/2011 Sam Mullins ‘Home-grown’ Islamist terrorism has developed in Australia in a comparable pattern to other Western countries. The Australian counter-terrorism strategy is similar to that in the UK, including the recent introduction of community-based preventive initiatives.
Evaluation of the First Hungarian EU Council Presidency (ARI) ARI 134/2011 - 27/9/2011 Krisztina Vida The Hungarian EU Presidency in the first half of 2011 came in a context of deep crisis in the euro area, uncertainty and enlargement fatigue. How did it perform?
Tour d’ Horizon 27/6/2011 HRH Prince Turki AlFaisal Speech by HRH Prince Turki AlFaisal of Saudi Arabia at the Elcano Royal Institute (Madrid) on 26 September 2011.
Analysing Physical and Socio-economic Risk in the Adaption of Agriculture to Climate Change (ARI) ARI 133/2011 - 22/9/2011 Ana Iglesias, Sonia Quiroga and Agustín Diz Adapting agriculture to climate change requires an understanding of both natural impacts and the underlying vulnerability of socio-economic systems.
A New Reading of the Crisis and the Dilemmas of Economic Policy (ARI) ARI 124/2011 (Translated from Spanish) Federico Steinberg The financial shock waves of August 2011 call for a review of the diagnosis of the crisis and an evaluation of the limited economic policy alternatives at the disposal of the US and the euro zone.
A Critical Assessment of the US National Strategy for Counterterrorism: A Missed Opportunity? (ARI) ARI 128/2011 - 7/9/2011 Paul Smith Neither the new 2011 US National Strategy for Counterterrorism, nor the recently published counter-radicalisation strategy provide a template upon which Federal, State and local law enforcement and civilian agencies could effectively plan the future US defence against terrorism. Has an opportunity been lost?
The International Energy Agency Responds to the Libyan Crisis (ARI) ARI 117/2011 (Translated from Spanish) - 21/7/2011 Gonzalo Escribano On 23 June, the International Energy Agency (IEA) announced the release of 60 million barrels of its members’ strategic petroleum reserves in July. In justifying the move, the IEA cited the need to mitigate the effects of the Libyan crisis, but it has been interpreted as a call for the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) to boost production and not jeopardise the economic recovery, as well as giving Saudi Arabia time to make the announced production increase materialise.
Temporary Migration between Morocco and Spain (ARI) ARI 111/2011 (Translated from Spanish) - 21/7/2011 Carmen González Enríquez European institutions and international bodies now present Spain's management of temporary migration from Morocco as a success story to be emulated.
Elcano Dossier on the Arab Unrest Nº 3 21/7/2011 Silvia Montero and Juan A. Sánchez, Elcano Royal Institute Monthly analysis of the Arab unrest highlights.
US-Pakistan Relations in the Summer of 2011 (ARI) ARI 121/2011 - 20/7/2011 Dennis Kux This ARI discusses the current crisis in US-Pakistan relations and analyses the interaction between Washington and Islamabad since the events of 9/11.
The Impact of the Arab Awakening on Muslim Radicalization in Europe: A Preliminary Assessment (ARI) ARI 120/2011 - 14/7/2011 Lorenzo Vidino While it is premature to draw conclusions, there are reasons to believe that the events of the Arab Awakening are not triggering a wave of radicalisation among European Muslims but might actually decrease it.
Fukushima and the Future of Nuclear Energy in Japan: The Need for a Robust Social Contract (ARI) ARI 113-2011 - 29/6/2011 Haruko Satoh The Fukushima accident in March 2011 calls for the reassessment of the nuclear regime in Japan, especially as regards to public safety.
Turkey’s Islamist AK Party Wins Third Term of Single-Party Rule: Time to Create a Liberal Secular State (ARI) ARI 106/2011 - 14/6/2011 William Chislett The AKP’s third consecutive absolute majority in parliamentary elections is a golden opportunity to move from illiberal secularism to a liberal secular state.
Elcano Dossier on the Arab Unrest Nº 2 13/6/2011 Silvia Montero and Juan A. Sánchez, Elcano Royal Institute Monthly analysis of the Arab unrest highlights.
The Role of the General Affairs Council Revisited in Light of the Experience of 18 Months with the Lisbon Treaty (ARI) ARI 105/2011 - 10/6/2011 Ignacio Molina The General Affairs Council (GAC) has so far not lived up to the expectations created by the Treaty of Lisbon, which in principle assigned it an important position within the EU system.
Towards a Paradigm Shift in Euro-Mediterranean Relations (ARI) ARI 76/2011 (Translated from Spanish) - 10/6/2011 Haizam Amirah-Fernández and Eduard Soler i Lecha Euro-Mediterranean relations call for a ‘mental revolution’ on the European side in order to truly understand and react to the wave of changes that are extending throughout the Arab countries and transforming their societies’ political culture.
The Need for an Open System to Evaluate European Union CSDP Missions (ARI) ARI 104/2011 - 10/6/2011 Félix Arteaga The entry into force of the Lisbon Treaty and the launch of the European External Action Service are an opportunity to introduce reporting and assessment mechanisms to render CSDP (Common Security and Defence Policy) missions more democratically legitimate and accountable.
Germany, the Schengen Crisis and Frontex: A Funny Kind of Pro-Europeanism (ARI) ARI 99/2011 - 26/5/2011 Roderick Parkes Is Germany’s new position on Schengen a sign of the ‘normalisation’ of its European policy?
Reframing the Libyan Narrative (ARI) ARI 96/2011 - 23/5/2011 Ronald Bruce St John The rebel movement in Libya is slowly building on its limited military capacity and experience and is making good progress in achieving domestic and international legitimacy, but much remains to be done before it is a functional state.
Interim Balance Sheet of the Hungarian Council Presidency (ARI) ARI 94/2011 - 20/5/2011 Krisztina Vida More than four months have passed since Hungary took over the Presidency of the EU, prompting the need for a review of its performance so far.
Current Moroccan Anti-Terrorism Policy (ARI) ARI 89/2011 - 13/5/2011 Jack Kalpakian Legal, social and religious reforms shape Morocco’s counter-terrorism. Though the policy has worked, in general, there have been reversals with human rights shortcomings and corruptions which affect these reforms. Returning to reform in counterterrorism should involve the Moroccan public.
Elcano Dossier on the Arab Unrest Nº 1 10/5/2011 Elcano Royal Institute Monthly analysis of the Arab unrest highlights.
Crisis and Change in Ireland (ARI) ARI 79/2011 - 28/4/2011 Raj Chari The 2011 Irish election must be placed in the context of both the economic and the political crisis that preceded the vote in order to examine its results and consider Ireland’s future in Europe.
The Internationalisation of the Renminbi: Prospects and Risks (ARI) ARI 73/2011 - 18/4/2011 Miguel Otero-Iglesias By looking at how far China has gone in internationalising its currency, the Renminbi (RMB), it is possible to identify the main strategic goals that China wants to achieve through this process, along with the main risks that such an objective embodies.
Recent Arrivals of Migrants and Asylum Seekers by Sea to Italy: Problems and Reactions (ARI) ARI 75/2011 - 13/4/2011 Paola Monzini The Italian government’s answer to the mass arrival of undocumented migrants and asylum seekers since the beginning of the present wave of political turmoil in North Africa must be seen in the context of both domestic political issues and international constraints.
Al-Qaeda’s Persistent Sanctuary (ARI) ARI 67/2011 - 13/4/2011 Seth G. Jones With growing instability across the Arab world, it has become de rigueur to argue that the primary al-Qaeda threat now comes from the Persian Gulf or North Africa. While these regions certainly present a threat to Western security, al-Qaeda’s primary command and control structure remains situated in the Pakistan-Afghanistan border regions.
Euro-area Fiscal Governance: A Guide for the Perplexed at Times of Crisis (ARI) ARI 65/2011 - 12/4/2011 Luis Guirola Fiscal governance in the Euro-zone is fatally flawed and it would be preferable to have a more integrated framework based on permanent institutions rather than rules.
Human Rights: An Obstacle to Peace in the Western Sahara? (ARI) ARI 47/2011 (Translated from Spanish) - 11/4/2011 Renata Capella Soler The establishment of a human rights monitoring mechanism in the Western Sahara, preferably through an expansion of MINURSO’s mandate, would change the underlying dynamics of the conflict and allow for progress in the negotiation process.
Aid to Haiti: Reconstruction Amidst Political Uncertainty (ARI) ARI 61/2011 - 29/3/2011 Marc J. Cohen and Amélie Gauthier Following the 20 March 2011 elections, Haiti faces a potential political stalemate whilst confronting the massive reconstruction needs created by last year’s earthquake.
Some Comments on the ‘Egyptian Revolution’ of 2011 (ARI) ARI 45/2011 (Translated from Spanish) - 21/3/2011 Andreu Claret The so-called ‘Egyptian Revolution’, led by the country’s middle-class urban youth, has led to sweeping social and cultural changes that constitute the main asset for a transition towards a more democratic regime, despite the uncertainties regarding the political future following the fall of Mubarak.
The Yemen Uprising: Imperatives for Change and Potential Risks (ARI) ARI 58/2011 - 21/3/2011 Abdullah Al-faqih The Saleh era has been marked by rampant corruption, personalisation of the State, the distortion of culture, social divisiveness and rent-seeking. In the eyes of many Yemenis, President Ali Abdullah Saleh is now part of the problem, not the solution.
International Relations of the Gulf: Interests, Alliances, Dilemmas and Paradoxes (ARI) ARI 48/2011 (Translated from Spanish) - 15/3/2011 Haizam Amirah-Fernández Security and the intervention of external powers are at the heart of the foreign policies of the Gulf countries.
Latin America: Economic and Political Outlook for 2011 (ARI) ARI 42/2011 (Translated from Spanish) - 15/3/2011 Carlos Malamud and Federico Steinberg Latin America's economic and political outlook for 2011 is favourable. Growth and political stability appear to be guaranteed, although there are some risks on the horizon.
Challenges facing the international community in addressing peace-building priorities in Guinea-Bissau 14/3/2011 Joseph Mutaboba Remarks by Joseph Mutaboba, Special Representative of the Secretary-General  for Guinea-Bissau, on the peace-building priorities in this country at the Elcano Royal Institute (Madrid) on16 February 2011.
Rebuilding the Eurozone: Germany’s Role (ARI) ARI 37/2011 (Translated from Spanish) - 11/3/2011 Luis Martí The European Economic and Monetary Union (EMU) is revamping its regulatory and operating framework in the wake of the crises affecting various member states. The initiative led by the German government is important, and hotly debated.
Thoughts on the Tunisian revolution (ARI) ARI 34/2011 - 15/2/2011 Ahmed Driss After 23 years of reign without sharing, the regime of the president Zine El Abidine Ben Ali fell after only a little less than a month of contesting of unprecedented scale. After more than two decades of silence and fear, Tunisians dared and tried the unthinkable.
Tunisian Uniqueness? The Limits of Regional Contagion (ARI) ARI 15/2011 (Translated from French) - 14/2/2011 Abdennour Benantar The Tunisian regime had stressed economic liberalism in order to overshadow political liberalism; however the people’s uprising has made plain the failure of the attempt. (Original version in French)
The Euro War that Won’t Happen (ARI) ARI 29/2011 (Translated from Spanish) - 14/2/2011 Juan I. Crespo The pressure being exerted on the Eurozone by the markets is driving the European integration process.
Prospects for Burma After Aung San Suu Kyi’s Release (ARI) ARI 32/2011 - 11/2/2011 Michael W. Charney Aung San Suu Kyi’s release will have important implications for the country in 2011 and 2012.
China in Africa: Seven Myths (ARI) ARI 23/20011 - 8/2/2011 Deborah Brautigam Sensationalism and rumours cloud our ability to understand China’s growing engagement in Africa, and to craft appropriate responses. This paper dissects seven common myths on China in Africa.
Beyond Protection: In the Wake of the Moscow Domodedovo Airport Terrorist Attack (ARI) ARI 19/2011 - 3/2/2011 Ekaterina Stepanova The failure of counterintelligence to prevent and pre-emptively disrupt terrorist plans and networks is highlighted in this paper as the single most critical flaw highlighted by the Domodedovo attack and other recent terrorist incidents in Russia.
Review of the Belgian Rotating Presidency: From Political to Administrative Leadership (ARI) ARI 16/2011 - 27/1/2011 Mike Beke Despite its domestic political problems and the major challenges facing the EU, in the second half of 2010 Belgium managed the Council’s rotating Presidency effectively and pragmatically.
Singularité tunisienne? Les limites d’une contagion régionale (ARI) ARI 15/2011 - 26/01/2011 Abdennour Benantar Le régime tunisien avait mis en exergue le libéralisme économique pour occulter le libéralisme politique, mais la révolte populaire a révélé l’échec de son entreprise.
‘Failed States’ in Sub-Saharan Africa: A Review of the Literature (ARI) ARI 5/2011 - 14/1/2011 Jonathan Di John The concept and measurement of ‘failed states’ is not generally helpful in understanding the economic and political realities in Sub-Saharan Africa.
China-Spain-Latin America Triangulation in a Chinese Perspective (ARI) ARI 4/2011 - 14/1/2011 Jiang Shixue This paper looks at the prospects for triangulation between China, Spain and Latin America in the wake of the Sinopec-Repsol deal in Brazil.
Arizona: The Criminalisation of an Immigrant Population (ARI) ARI 3/2011 - 13/1/2011 Doris Marie Provine The Arizona Senate's Bill 1070 on immigration, currently subject to an injunction, is at the heart of the political tension in the state. The bill was blocked by the Department of Justicea few days before it came into effect and after a Federal Judge in Arizona suspended its most controversial provisions. Its future remains in the hands of the Court of Appeal.
Two Years of G-20 Summits: Adagio Spiccato (ARI) ARI 162/2010 (Translated from Spanish) - 10/1/2011 Pablo Moreno The G-20 summit in Seoul has taken steps towards a global financial reform, the internal reform of the IMF and the establishment of a new development agenda.
Le Maroc dans la nouvelle carte économique de la Méditerranée (ARI) ARI 150/2011 - 15/11/2011 Gonzalo Escribano La vague de changement qui secoue le Nord de l’Afrique a détérioré les économies des pays les plus affectés. Le Maroc est le seule pays de la région qui continue à montrer un dynamisme économique significatif, lui offrant une fenêtre d’opportunité pour se positionner sur la nouvelle carte économique méditerranéenne.
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