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ARI (Analisis of the Real Instituto Elcano) :
The Global Financial Crisis: Causes and Political Response (ARI) ARI 126/2008 (Translated from Spanish) - 12/12/2008 Federico Steinberg The world financial crisis, the result of financial liberalisation and an excess of global liquidity, has pushed the world to the verge of recession. The crisis will also have major geopolitical ramifications.
Somali Piracy: A Dangerous Internal and External Threat (ARI) ARI 162/2008 - 10/12/2008 Laura Hammond The recent dramatic increase in the successes of Somali pirates has resulted in international calls for tightened security in the Gulf of Aden. However, the problem cannot be solved through securitised measures alone and a greater emphasis must be placed on building a legitimate government inside Somalia to effectively manage the problem.
New Trends in Italian Immigration Policies: ‘To change everything in order to keep everything the same’ (ARI) ARI 161/2008 - 9/12/2008 Claudia Finotelli and Giuseppe Sciortino This ARI looks at the recent developments in Italian immigration policies carried out in 2008 by the conservative government of Silvio Berlusconi.
Les immigrés en France et en Grande-Bretagne : leçons pour l’Espagne (ARI) ARI 160/2008 - 05/12/2008 Daniele Joly Des émeutes graves ont embrasé les banlieues françaises en automne 2005, à l’image de celles qui avaient secoué la Grande-Bretagne vingt ans auparavant. Cet article examine comment tirer les leçons de cette expérience pour l’Espagne. (Text in French)
Taiwan-China Balancing Act in Latin America (ARI) ARI 154/2008 - 26/11/2008 Johanna Mendelson Forman and Susana Moreira This ARI reviews the current state of the Taiwan-China relationship in light of the current challenges Taiwan faces in keeping its Latin American allies loyal. More opportunities for shifting alliances now exist, especially given the current global economic meltdown which has had an impact on both China and Taiwan’s ability to sustain its assistance to many Latin American states.
European Issues from a Spanish Perspective: Contribution to EU-27 Watch nr 7 (ARI) ARI 147/2008 - 12/11/2008 Ignacio Molina and Alicia Sorroza This paper analyses various European issues –the Irish referendum, the French EU Presidency, the EU's Mediterranean relations, the Pact on immigration an asylum and the future of the Euro, among others– from a Spanish perspective.
Chaos, International Terrorism and Beyond: A Strategic Prognosis(ARI) ARI 146/2008 - 11/11/2008 Xavier Raufer During the historical interval from 1989 to 2001, the nature of the enemy has changed. Previously, the enemy was known, stable and familiar. Today the enemy is evasive, strange and incomprehensible –but just as dangerous, if not more so–.
The Argentine Agricultural Scene: Recent Changes, Future Challenges and Latent Conflicts (ARI) ARI 111/2008 (Translated from Spanish) - 10/11/2008 Roberto Bisang Thanks to its inherent potential and recent technological and organisational changes, Argentina’s farming sector has developed the capacity to generate major revenue from abroad. This forces a re-think of how and why the government intervenes (among other ways, by taxing exports) in the process of appropriating such excess production.
The Energy Situation in Bolivia (ARI) ARI 118/2008 (Translated from Spanish) - 10/11/2008 Hugo del Granado Cosio The nationalisation of the hydrocarbon industry in Bolivia marks the culmination of a long, emotional battle by the ruling party to assert control over the country’s natural resources. The signing of new contracts with oil companies displayed the pragmatism and flexibility with which it can negotiate nationalisation measures, and the degree of influence that Hugo Chávez has come to exert over the Bolivian government.
The EU’s Progress Report on Turkey’s Accession: Stalling Reform (ARI) ARI 143/2008 - 6/11/2008 William Chislett The European Commission’s annual report on Turkey’s progress towards full EU membership showed that little progress had been made over the last year. It continued to raise serious concerns about freedom of expression, the independence of the judiciary and the military’s interference in political life, among other issues.
The Threat of Jihadist Terrorism in Germany (ARI) ARI 142/2008 - 6/11/2008 Guido Steinberg German internal security is threatened by three distinct terrorist phenomena: organised Jihadists, independent Jihadists and the new Internationalists.
Don’t Hold Your Breath (Yet) for a Settlement in Cyprus (ARI) ARI 141/2008 - 4/11/2008 Nathalie Tocci After decades of ongoing intercommunal disputes between Greek Cypriots and Turkish Cypriots, and for the first time since 2004 when a peace process brokered by the UN failed, the leaders of the two communities on the island have re-launched negotiations for a federal solution.
The US and Latin America: What Lies Ahead? (ARI) ARI 140/2008 - 3/11/2008 Ray Walser On 4 November American voters will choose the 44th President of the United States. While the voters have learnt much about the US presidential candidates’ views on Iraq, Afghanistan and other key foreign policy issues, little has been said about relations with Latin America. Despite its importance to the US, Latin America has not emerged as a significant topic of debate in the campaign.
EU-25/27 WATCH No. 7 - September 2008 24/10/2008 Eu-Consent The aim of the seventh edition survey is to give a full comparative picture of debates on European issues in the member states of the EU and two candidates (Croatia and Turkey). This project is coordinated by Institut für Europäische Politik (IEP) and Institutes from all 27 EU member states –including the Elcano Royal Institute- as well as Croatia and Turkey.
What Latin America can Expect from the Next US President (ARI) ARI 135/2008 - 22/10/2008 Peter Hakim What can Latin America expect from the next US President, and what can the next US President expect from Latin America?
Plus ça Change, Plus c'est la Même Chose: The Political Economy of Rent-driven Development in Mauritania (ARI) ARI 134/2008 - 21/10/2008 Nicola Pontara After four decades of rent-driven development that has systematically killed off competition in the main sectors of the economy, Mauritania remains inherently prone to authoritarian intervention when powerful interests are threatened.
It’s All Over But the Shouting (ARI) ARI 130/2008 - 20/10/2008 Stephen J. Wayne The race for the American Presidency has been described as one of the most important in recent US history. Policy issues, political leadership and governing style are all on the line. Should Senator Barack Obama become the next US President, however, he will need more than the audacity of hope, the title of his last book.
The Credit Crisis: Causes, Public Responses and Beyond (ARI) ARI 127/2008 - 17/10/2008 Henrik Lumholdt This ARI discusses the main causes of the credit crisis, the short-term responses from the authorities, and some of the regulatory issues arising from it. It argues that lessons from previous crises may have to be re-learned.
Will the American Elections Shake Up Washington’s Cuba Policy? (ARI) ARI 125/2008 - 13/10/2008 Daniel P. Erikson There are stark differences between the cold war outlook on Cuba promoted by John McCain and the more flexible approach suggested by Barack Obama.
Literature in Translation: Why is it so Difficult to Enter the Anglo-American Market? (ARI) ARI 124/2008 - 13/10/2008 Cristina Fuentes La Roche This ARI paper explores issues relating to literature in translation and the prospects for literature written in Spanish to enter the American market.
The Roller-Coaster Election of 2008 (ARI) ARI 123/2008 - 10/10/2008 Matthew Continetti The year 2008 will see the most open US Presidential election in decades as neither an incumbent President nor Vice-president is running.
Still a World to be Won: An Outline of Today’s Cultural Diplomacy in the Netherlands (ARI) ARI 88/2008 (Translated from Spanish) - 10/10/2008 Ben Hurkmans This ARI describes the recent developments in the Netherlands’ international cultural relations. To what extent can it be said that the governmental and many non-governmental players practice deliberate, targeted, well-coordinated cultural diplomacy?
Elections, Mediation and Deadlock in Zimbabwe? (ARI) ARI 119/2008 - 8/10/2008 Brian Raftopoulos The mixture of hope and despair that followed the March 2008 elections in Zimbabwe and the ensuing violence gave way to the new possibilities offered by the political agreement signed by Zanu PF, the MDC (Tsvangirai) and the MDC (Mutambara) on 11 September 2008.
The Subprime Crisis and the Lender of Last Resort (ARI) ARI 106/2008 (Translated from Spanish) - 1/10/2008 Santiago Fernández de Lis This ARI reviews the traditional doctrine regarding the role of central banks as lenders of last resort, in view of the financial crisis which began in the summer of 2007.
The Coming NATO Nuclear Debate (ARI) ARI 117/2008 - 26/9/2008 Bruno Tertrais This paper analyses NATO’s current nuclear position, the arguments for and against withdrawal, and the need for a calm process of behind-the-doors consultations on this issue, with an open mind and with no taboos. Otherwise, NATO could generate a new controversy between Member States and put at risk the credibility of its nuclear deterrence.
Spain’s Multinationals: Reaping the Benefits of their Strategies (ARI) ARI 114/2008 - 24/9/2008 William Chislett Spain’s multinationals are successfully offsetting the downturn in their domestic business, due to the very sharp slowdown in the Spanish economy, with increased activity abroad as a result of their international investments.
Trade and the US Presidential Election (ARI) ARI 113/2008 - 24/9/2008 Daniel Griswold The US Presidential candidates Barack Obama and John McCain have embraced sharply different positions on the important issue of international trade.
The Slovenian Presidency of the EU Council: How the 16th Member State Performed (ARI) ARI 105/2008 - 16/9/2008 Sabina Kajnc The Slovenian Presidency of the Council of the EU in the first half of 2008 was symbolic in terms of rounding off the 2004/07 Enlargements of the European Union (EU) by testing the ability of a new member state to engage actively in EU politics. The challenges Slovenia had to face during its term in office, however, exceeded the merely symbolic and pointed to shortcomings, with lessons for the EU, for future Presidencies and for each member state.
Oil Production in Ghana: Implications for Economic Development (ARI) ARI 104/2008 - 15/9/2008 Robert Darko Osei and George Domfe This ARI looks at the revenue stream likely to accrue to Ghana from oil production which is to start in 2010 and the implications for the economy.
How to Sell Lisbon in Prague: Prospects for the Lisbon Treaty’s Ratification in the Czech Republic (ARI) ARI 103/2008 - 15/9/2008 David Král The ratification of the Lisbon Treaty in the Czech Republic continues to be surrounded by uncertainty.
Remittances for Development?: A Case Study of the Impact of Remittances on Human Development in Ecuador 12/9/2008 FLACSO-Elcano Royal Institute This paper analyses the impact of remittances on a set of human development variables in Ecuador. It is focused on education and health indicators, as well on some other consumption variables. Prepared by Juan Ponce (Facultad Latinoamericana de Ciencias Sociales – FLACSO, Ecuador) and Iliana Olivié (Elcano Royal Institute’s Senior Analyst on International Cooperation and Development), the study was presented in two workshops held at the Elcano Royal  Institute (Madrid) and at CIDOB (Barcelona) on 3 and 5 June 2008, respectively. It was also presented on 10 June in a specific session on Remittances held at the World Bank’s 2008 ABCDE in Cape Town (South Africa).
The Republicans After St. Paul (ARI) ARI 102/2008 - 12/9/2008 John S. Gardner John McCain has managed to unite the Republicans in St. Paul, not least with the selection of Governor Sarah Palin as vice presidential candidate. Now a difficult road to election lies ahead and the next major events in the campaign will be the debates.
Transatlantic Politics After the 2008 Election (ARI) ARI 101/2008 - 12/9/2008 Robert J. Lieber The fundamental realities on which the Atlantic relationship rests remain in place and are highly unlikely to disappear at any time in the foreseeable future.
Suicide Attacks in Algeria: Al-Qaeda in the Land of the Islamic Maghreb (AQLIM) (ARI) ARI 100/2008 - 12/9/2008 Anneli Botha Algeria has been confronted by 17 suicide attacks over a period of 16 months. Despite the devastation of these attacks, it is also clear that the Salafist Group of Combat and Preaching (GSPC)/Al-Qaeda in the Land of Islamic Maghreb (AQLIM) grows in its sophistication, possibly to increasingly market itself as al-Qaeda’s representative in the region.
Paraguay: A Shift to the Left under Lugo? (ARI) ARI 99/2008 - 11/9/2008 Andrew Nickson President Lugo’s swearing-in as the President of Paraguay marks a major turning-point in the country’s history.
From Fomenting Secessionist Conflicts to Waging Wars: Russia’s Far-reaching Georgia Policies (ARI) ARI 98/2008 - 3/9/2008 Nodar Tangiashvili After a protracted confrontation due to the Russian opposition to the restoration of Georgia’s territorial integrity, Russia invaded Georgia on 8 August 2008.
Spain in the 21st Century: The Case for a National Security Strategy (ARI) ARI 91/2008 - 8/8/2008 Charlie Edwards France and the UK have just released their national security and defence strategies in 2008. For Spain the case for a national security strategy is growing because it shares the same complex and uncertain strategic challenges.
The French White Paper on Defence and National Security: Towards a Stronger and More Streamlined Force (ARI) ARI 89/2008 - 7/8/2008 Bruno Tertrais The President of the French Republic, Nicolas Sarkozy, presented a new and far-reaching White Paper on Security and Defence on 17 July 2008.
The Impact of Immigration on the Spanish Education System (ARI) ARI 63/2008 (Translated from Spanish) - 10/7/2008 Julio Carabaña Children of immigrants in Spain are not performing nearly as well in school as native-born Spanish youths.
Polls on World Public Opinion 9/7/2008 World Public Opinion (PIPA) - Elcano Royal Institute WordlPublicOpinion.org is a collaborative research project involving research centres studying public opinion on international issues in their respective countries. The Elcano Royal Institute is one of the research partners through the BRIE (Barómetro del Real Instituto Elcano), a periodic survey carried out three times a year, conducted by Javier Noya, the Institute’s Senior Analyst on Spain’s International Image and Public Opinion.
Remarks by Ambassador Eduardo Aguirre: ‘Radical Islamism in and from the North of Africa and the Horn of Africa’ (Translated from Spanish) - 8/7/2008 Eduardo Aguirre Remarks by the U.S Ambassador to Spain and Andorra Eduardo Aguirre at the International Conference “Islamic Radicalization In and From North and the Horn of Africa: Implications for European and Transnational Counterterrorism”, co-organised by the Elcano Royal Institute, the U.S Department of State and the University Rey Juan Carlos University.
The Lima Summit: A Meeting of Euro-Latin American Asymmetry (ARI) ARI 58/2008 (Translated from Spanish) - 8/7/2008 Günther Maihold The fifth edition of the LAC-EU Summit did not manage to escape the contradictions present at the previous meetings, although this time the Latin American and Caribbean Presidents clearly articulated their desire to receive a European response to the increasing heterogeneity in Latin America within a framework of fundamental asymmetry in the bi-regional relationship.
Sarkozy’s Dilemmas, the Forthcoming French EU Presidency and ESDP: What’s in it for Europe? (ARI) ARI 76/2008 - 7/7/2008 Luis Simón Navarro This ARI aims to identify the key policy and political aspects of the debates on ESDP during the French EU Presidency (July-December 2008) and beyond.
The Riddle of Energy Security (ARI) ARI 67/2008 - 4/7/2008 Paul Isbell The issue of energy security has traditionally been confused and confusing terrain. The concept itself is so multi-faceted and complex that intuitive approaches typically turn out to be incomplete, if not simply wrong-headed. A counterintuitive reading on energy issues is more often than not the most accurate, or at least the most revealing.
The UK’s First National Security Strategy: A Critical and Selective Evaluation (ARI) ARI 74/2008 - 4/7/2008 Frank Gregory In March 2008 the Prime Minister presented in Parliament the National Security Strategy of the United Kingdom, a plan that includes counter-terrorist and civil contingencies dimensions.
After Ireland: Referendum and Unanimity (ARI) ARI 62/2008 (Translated from Spanish) - 3/7/2008 Carlos Closa After the ‘No’ vote in the referendum held in Ireland on 12 June, and in view of the unanimity requirement for treaty ratification among member countries, the entry into force of the Lisbon Treaty faces a setback. A new period of uncertainty has commenced in the process of European integration.
Neighbours, Allies and Giants: Three Themes in Australian Strategic Thinking (ARI) ARI 71/2008 - 3/7/2008 Robert Ayson Australian strategic thinking is a challenging balancing act between three priorities: local developments in Australia’s immediate neighbourhood, alliance commitments at the global level and coping with the rise of the Asian giants.
In Spain's interest: A Committed Foreign Policy (Translated from Spanish) - 2/7/2008 José Luis Rodríguez Zapatero An address by the Spanish Prime Minister José Luis Rodríguez Zapatero at the Prado Museum (Madrid) on 16 June 2008 organised by the Elcano Royal Institute, with the collaboration of the following Spanish institutions: CIDOB Foundation, FRIDE, ICEI and INCIPE. (This text is also available in French: Dans l’intérêt de l’Espagne: une politique extérieure engagée).
Dans l’intérêt de l’Espagne: une politique extérieure engagée (Traduit de l'espagnol) - 2/07/2008 José Luis Rodríguez Zapatero
Why Did the Irish Reject Lisbon? An Analysis of Referendum Results (ARI) ARI 69/2008 - 30/6/2008 Raj Chari This ARI looks at the referendum results and examines the different factors that help explain why the Irish electorate voted against the Lisbon Treaty on 12 June 2008.
Remarks by Mr. Kofi A. Annan 17/6/2008 Kofi A. Annan Remarks by Kofi A. Annan at the conference of the Spanish Prime Minister José Luis Rodríguez Zapatero, held at the Prado Museum (Madrid) on 16 June 2008 and organised by the Elcano Royal Institute, with the collaboration of the following Spanish institutions: CIDOB Foundation, FRIDE, ICEI and INCIPE.
Potential Flashpoints in South America (II): Could the Situation in Bolivia Spark a Regional War? (ARI) ARI 45/2008 (Translated from Spanish) - 10/6/2008 Carlos Malamud and Carlota García Encina The critical political, institutional, ethnic and social situation in Bolivia today, aggravated by the referendum on political autonomy held in several regions, could lead to a worrying level of regional instability.
After NATO’s Bucharest Summit (ARI) ARI 60/2008 - 10/6/2008 Fernando del Pozo In general terms NATO’s Bucharest Summit has been a success. The outcome was less satisfactory regarding the design of a new Strategic Concept, but the hope is that the Declaration on Alliance Security should lead to progress being made for the next Summit, to be held in the spring of 2009 in Strasbourg and Kehl.
Chad: Democratisation Challenges and Limits of International Intervention (ARI) ARI 59/2008 - 6/6/2008 Paul-Simon Handy International interventions in Chad, such as the European Eufor Chad, must address structural problems linked to governance and democracy by helping Chadian political actors to reform the country’s social contract instead of focusing on preserving stability and, thus, becoming part of the problem and not of the solution.
Caution: The Irish Might Guillotine Lisbon (ARI) ARI 56/2008 - 6/6/2008 Hugo Brady Irish voters are going to the polls on 12 June in the only referendum in Europe on the Lisbon Treaty.
Towards Mediterranean Migration Management 2008? Developing Discourse and Practices (ARI) ARI 54/2008 - 2/6/2008 Michael Collyer Ongoing EU negotiations with the African Union have identified a number of clear, achievable steps, which might bring more positive ideals of Mediterranean migration management a little closer.
African Remittances and Progress: Opportunities and Challenges (ARI) ARI 52/2008 - 27/05/2008 Anna Lindley Sixteen million international migrants originate from sub-Saharan Africa and remittance flows have grown in the last few years, but their impact on development remains unclear.
Leadership and American Foreign Policy 19/05/2008 Joseph S. Nye, Jr. Conference by Joseph S. Nye, Jr. at the bilateral seminar on 'Foreign Policy Priorities for the Next US President', held in Madrid on 19 May 2008 and organised by the Center for Strategic & International Studies (CSIS) and the Elcano Royal Institute, with the cooperation of the Spanish Ministry of Foreign Affairs and Cooperation.
The Fragile, Back-and-forth Relationship between Venezuela and Colombia (ARI) ARI 40/2008 (Translated from Spanish) - 9/5/2008 María Teresa Romero Under the governments of Álvaro Uribe and Hugo Chavez, political and diplomatic relations between Venezuela and Colombia have been increasingly fragile and back-and-forth, jeopardising ties and the precarious stability in the Andean region.
The new Eastern border of Schengen area and the irregular immigration into and from Poland (ARI) ARI 49/2008 -12/5/2008 Krystyna Iglicka Poland has been forced to design a stricter migratory regime firstly for EU accession and secondly, for entering Schengen espace. Since December 2007 Polish eastern frontier (stretching across 1,200 kilometres from the Baltic to the Carpathians) has become one of the few points in Europe at which it is possible to control human spatial mobility on the east-west axis.
The Impact of Immigration on the Spanish Labour Market (ARI) ARI 39/2008 (Translated from Spanish) - 9/5/2008 Carlos Martín Urriza The immigration phenomenon in Spain has been characterized by the presence of foreigners lacking work- and residence papers. This has fuelled a growth model that is labour-intensive and not very productive, weakening social cohesion.
The New Dimension of the Colombian Conflict (ARI) ARI 38/2008 (Translated from Spanish) - 9/5/2008 Simon Pachano Recent verbal and diplomatic clashes between the governments of Ecuador and Venezuela and that of Colombia, and the final statement at the meeting of the Rio Group, have placed the Colombian conflict in the multilateral realm. This raises new challenges for the region.
European Issues from a Spanish Perspective: Contribution to the EU-25/27 Watch (ARI) ARI 44/2008 - 8/5/2008 Alicia Sorroza and Ignacio Molina This paper analyses various European issues –the ratification of the Lisbon Treaty, future enlargement, Kosovo’s independence, the Mediterranean Union project, relations with Russia and the Budget review– from a Spanish perspective.
Integration Contracts for Immigrants: Common Trends and Differences in the European Experience (ARI) ARI 43/2008 - 7/5/2008 Virginie Guiraudon ‘Integration contracts’ for immigrants have become widespread in Europe during the last 10 years but their results remain unclear.
Failed States in Africa: The Zimbabwean Experience (ARI) ARI 29/2008 (Translated from Spanish) - 11/4/2008 Carlos García Rivero Zimbabwe is one of the failed States of Africa due to the violence and power monopoly wielded by the Mugabe regime.
The European Defence Agency in the Wake of the Treaty of Lisbon (ARI) ARI 33/2008 (Translated from Spanish) - 11/4/2008 Carlos Martí Sempere The EU Treaty approved in Lisbon incorporates the European Defence Agency among the European institutions aimed at supporting the new Common Security and Defence Policy.
Slovenia's EU Presidency: ‘Si.nergy for Europe’ ARI 41/2008 - 10/4/2008 Irena Brinar This ARI looks at the main challenges faced by the Slovenian Presidency of the EU as the first of the group of countries that joined the Union in 2004.
‘Pashtunistan’: The Challenge to Pakistan and Afghanistan (ARI) ARI 37/2008 - 2/4/2008 Selig S. Harrison The increasing co-operation between Pashtun nationalist and Islamist forces against Punjabi domination could lead to the break-up of Pakistan and Afghanistan and the emergence of a new national entity: an ‘Islamic Pashtunistan’.
Turkey’s Militant Secularist Establishment Seeks Ban on Ruling Neo-Islamist Party (ARI) ARI 36/2008 - 2/4/2008 William Chislett The decision by Turkey’s Constitutional Court to hear the case against the neo-Islamist –and pro-European– government presented by the militantly secularist establishment could jeopardise the country’s already complicated bid to join the European Union.
Controlling Migration in Greece: Policies, Problems and Opportunities (ARI) ARI 35/2008 - 1/4/2008 Anna Triandafyllidou The main irregular migration route from Asia to Europe passes through Turkey into Greece, which also receives irregular migrants from former Communist countries.
Potential Flashpoints in South America (Introduction) (ARI) ARI 27/2008 (Translated from Spanish) - 28/3/2008 Carlos Malamud South America, like the whole of Latin America, has traditionally been considered to be a region of peace. However, in the last few months two potential flashpoints have emerged in the Andean region: Bolivia and Colombia.
The Chad Conflict, United Nations (MINURCAT) and the European Union (EUFOR) (ARI) ARI 20/2008 (Translated from Spanish) - 10/3/2008 Félix Arteaga The European EUFOR Chad/CAR mission, in support of humanitarian and police action for the United Nations mission in Chad and the Central African Republic, has been suspended until peace is restored to the region.
The ALBA Bloc: An Alternative Project for Latin America? (ARI) ARI 17/2008 (Translated from Spanish) - 6/3/2008 Josette Altmann The Venezuelan/Cuban proposal for the so–called ALBA (the Spanish acronym for Bolivarian Alternative for the Americas), which also includes Bolivia, Nicaragua and Dominica, is an alternative project designed to promote integration in Latin America and the Caribbean. This ARI looks at the initiative’s origin, evolution and concrete proposals.
The economic relations between the European Union and the United States (ARI) ARI 16/2008 (Translated from Spanish) - 5/3/2008 Federico Steinberg The EU and the US are the world’s two most important economic blocs. This ARI examines their economic relations.
Elections in Taiwan: Towards a New Relationship with Beijing? (ARI) ARI 15/2008 (Translated from Spanish) - 4/3/2008 Mario Esteban Rodríguez The results of Taiwan’s parliamentary elections on 12 January and presidential elections scheduled for 22 March should have a significant impact on the island’s relations with China.
Pateras, cayucos and Cross-border Mafias in Africa: Profiting from the Atlantic Routes to the Canary Islands (ARI) ARI 14/2008 (Translated from Spanish) - 3/3/2008 Francisco Javier Vélez Alcalde This ARI describes the criminal business of profiting from the Atlantic routes of illegal immigration to the Canary Islands.
Foreign Policy in the Presidential Election After Super Tuesday (ARI) ARI 25/2008 - 28/2/2008 Robert J. Lieber With a narrower field of candidates after ‘Super Tuesday’, observers will now be able to focus more on what a McCain, Clinton or Obama presidency would mean in foreign affairs.
The NATO Summit in Bucharest (ARI) ARI 24/2008 - 26/2/08 Fernando del Pozo Expectations are high ahead of the NATO Summit to be held in Bucharest on 2-4 April 2008
Hugo Chávez and the Limits to Petropolitics (ARI) ARI 23/2008 - 25/2/2008 Paul Isbell Exxon Mobil’s conflict with PDVSA has revived Hugo Chávez’s perennial threat to cut off oil exports to the US.
Australia’s Strategic Priorities: Challenges for a New Government (ARI) ARI 19/2008 - 11/2/2008 Rod Lyon The key decisions on strategic priorities to be adopted by the new Australian Labor Government are analysed in this ARI. The key decisions on strategic priorities to be adopted by the new Australian Labor Government are analysed in this ARI.
Iraq and Afghanistan: A Comparison Based on International Law (ARI) ARI 10/2008 (Translated from Spanish) - 8/2/2008 Luis M. Hinojosa Martínez This ARI differentiates from a legal standpoint the interventions in Afghanistan and Iraq and examines the consequences for Spanish foreign policy.
OPEC: past, present and future 8/2/2008 Sheikh Ahmed Zaki Yamani
Argentina Ushers in Matrimonial Presidency (ARI) ARI 7/2008 (Translated from Spanish) - 6/2/2008 Liliana De Riz Cristina Kirchner’s win has introduced matrimonial presidency to Argentina. This ARI reviews the elections that brought her to power, the legacy of her husband’s government and the challenges she faces in the future.
The Contribution of the Spanish Provincial Reconstruction Team (PRT) in Qala e Naw to the Reconstruction and Development of Afghanistan (ARI) ARI 6/2008 (Translated from Spanish) - 5/2/2008 Rafael Roel Fernández A description of the activities of Spanish soldiers in the province of Badghis, in whose capital, Qala-e-Naw, the Spanish Provincial Reconstruction Team (PRT) is deployed.
Outside Players in Latin America (III): Relations with the European Union (ARI) ARI 8/2008 (Translated from Spanish) - 30/1/2007 Carlos Malamud The future of relations between the European Union and Latin America is full of question marks given the ambiguity on the part of almost all the players involved.
Climate Change: Policy Mix for a Brave New Kyoto? (ARI) ARI 12/2008 - 25/1/2008 Lara Lázaro-Touza An overview of the economics of pollution control is put forth with regards to the main policy instruments at our disposal for the post-Kyoto era.
Lebanon in Limbo (ARI) ARI 2/2008 (Translated from Spanish) - 15/1/2008 Julia Choucair Visozo The presidential election in Lebanon has become the latest battle between two political coalitions competing for the reins of the country’s future. Despite the fact that Lebanese politicians have so far refrained from taking the step that would unleash chaos, the situation could spiral out of control.
The Impact of the Emerging Powers on the World Economy (ARI) ARI 4/2008 (Translated from Spanish) - 15/1/2008 Federico Steinberg The emerging powers that have burst onto the world economic scene are causing an unprecedented structural change. This ARI looks at its main implications.
Risks Facing the Spanish Contingent in Afghanistan (ARI) ARI 128/2007 (Translated from Spanish) - 15/1/2008 Carlos Echeverría Jesús A detailed analysis of the nature of the current and potential threat that the Spanish contingent will have to face in the immediate future is required in the light of increased risks in Spain’s deployment zone in Afghanistan in recent months, the worsening of the conflict in a large part of the country and the intensification of terrorist activity in neighbouring Pakistan.
‘Not That Way, Commander’: ‘21st Century Socialism’ Checked by Referendum (ARI) ARI 3/2008 (Translated from Spanish) - 15/1/2008 Manuel Hidalgo The constitutional reform project was rejected by a narrow margin, suggesting that most Venezuelans do not agree with the intentions of the chavista elite to move the country towards socialism.
Public Opinion and the Armed Forces in the Southern Cone (ARI) ARI 5/2008 (Translated from Spanish) - 14/1/2008 Marina Malamud The new international challenges and the current Southern Cone governments’ plans for reform have re-ignited the interest of public opinion in issues linked to the armed forces, bringing them to centre-stage in all the main media.
China and India: Energy and Climate Change (ARI) ARI 136/2007 (Translated from Spanish) - 14/1/2008 Pablo Bustelo The annual report that the International Energy Agency published in November and especially some of the arguments put forth by certain countries at the recent summit in Bali on climate change have sought with varying degrees of directness to criticise Asia’s two great emerging economies.
The Moral Grounds for the EU’s Obligation to End the Occupation of Northern Cyprus (ARI) ARI N 9/2008 - 10/1/2008 Costas Melakopides Turkey's occupation of 37% of Cyprus is a protracted legal and political anomaly that the EU is morally obliged to address immediately.
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