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Iran’s Regional Security Policy: Opportunities and Challenges (WP) WP 52/2008 - 16/12/2008 George Emile Irani This paper assesses and analyses Iran’s regional policy since the Iranian Revolution (February 1979) focusing on the last ten years. It is the first of three Working Papers in which the author will be looking at Iran’s regional and global policies.
China Returns to Africa: Anatomy of an Expansive Engagement (WP) WP 51/2008 - 11/12/2008 Chris Alden, Dan Large and Ricardo Soares de Oliveira This paper presents a scoping analysis of the main contours of relations, offering an anatomy of key dimensions of an expansive Chinese engagement in the continent that remains dynamic.
Image and Reality: Contemporary Spain (WP) WP 45/2008 - 5/11/2008 William Chislett Few developed nations have progressed so much as Spain over the past 30 years and yet still have a significant gap between how it and its companies are perceived abroad and the country’s business and socioeconomic reality. Generally speaking, Spain is still viewed, to a varying extent, as a land of siesta and fiesta. In order to change perceptions, it is necessary to reach some consensus among the main players on how the country should ideally be viewed and then work toward it on a coordinated basis.
An Overview of the Cuban Economy, the Transformations Underway and the Prospective Challenges it Faces (WP) WP 31/2008 (Translated from Spanish) - 3/11/2008 Jorge Mario Sánchez Egozcue and Juan Triana Cordoví This working paper provides an overview of the state of the Cuban economy, revising the results from the nineties, the reforms introduced and their effects and the impact of relations with the EU and U.S.
After the Madrid Bombings: Internal Security Reforms and the Prevention of Global Terrorism in Spain (WP) WP 40/2008 (Translated from Spanish) - 14/10/2008 Fernando Reinares At the time of the Madrid bombings on 11 March 2004, Spain was equipped with well-developed internal security structures that were highly efficient in the fight against terrorism. However, they were not as well adapted to dealing with the challenges of terrorism related to al-Qaeda.
The Political Transformation of the Cuban Regime, Seen Through the Perspective of Conflict Resolution (WP) WP 32/2008 (Translated from Spanish) Juan Antonio Blanco The goal of this analysis is to provide conclusions and practical recommendations on possible policies to be followed by governments which, acting as third parties, wish to facilitate the success of that second option, which foresees a gradual, agreed and non-violent democratic transformation of the Cuban regime.
Armed Forces Participation in Populist Nationalist Projects in Latin America (WP) WP 36/2008 (Translated from Spanish) - 10/10/2008 Sonia Alda Mejías Given the existence of a common problem that to differing degrees affects the entire region, it is worth considering whether the changes being introduced by the current populist nationalist governments include measures that will ensure civilian control of the armed forces in the sphere of defence.
The Other Immigrants: EU Citizens from Rich Countries (WP) WP 37/2008 (Translated from Spanish) - 6/10/2008 Carmen González Enríquez Only a quarter of foreigners from the most developed countries in the EU who live in Spain are pensioners. The rest belong to the active population, and their educational and occupational levels are higher than those of the Spanish population, and considerably higher than those of the rest of the immigrant population.
Cuba: Democracy for a Possible Nation (WP) WP 30/2008 (Translated from Spanish) - 16/9/2008 Manuel Cuesta Morúa The aim of this Working Paper is to provide some conclusions and practical recommendations regarding possible policies to be implemented by governments interested in favouring -as third parties- the success of a gradual democratic transformation of the Cuban regime on the basis of an agreed and non-violent process.
European Union Scenarios for 2017 (WP) WP 39/2008 - 22/8/2008 Antonio Estella At the Brussels European Council of 14 December 2007, the EU Member States decided to convoke a ‘reflection group’ on the future of the EU. The aim of this paper is to contribute to the debate on the future of Europe to be generated by this European Council initiative.
Political Economy of African Mineral Revenue Deployment: Angola, Botswana, Nigeria and Zambia Compared (WP) WP 28/2008 - 16/6/2008 Richard Auty Recent research identifies weak institutions as a leading cause of the under-performance of developing economies. But in low-income economies institutions reflect political incentives rather than mould them, so this paper analyses how political incentives are shaped by commodity revenue. It focuses on commodity rent flows as the critical link between the economy and politics and uses case studies to track them (whereas statistical studies treat rent as a black box).
The Cuban Economy at the Crossroads: Fidel Castro’s Legacy, Debate over Change and Raúl Castro’s Options (WP) WP 19/2008 - 11/6/2008 Carmelo Mesa-Lago This Working Paper evaluates the current status of the Cuban economy (Fidel Castro’s legacy), analyses the debate that emerged after a speech Raúl delivered on 26 July 2007 and explores the course of possible reforms.
The Lisbon Treaty: A Preliminary Study (WP) WP 27/2008 - 11/6/2008 José Martín y Pérez de Nanclares In 2007 the Heads of State and Government of the 27 Member States of the EU signed a Treaty by virtue of which the European Union Treaty (EUT) and the constitutional Treaty of the European Community Treaty (ECT) were modified, opening a new process of ratification which, if successful, should lead in 2009 to a new reformed EUT and to a Draft Treaty of the European Union (DTEU) to replace the present ECT. This implies the possible end to one of the gravest crises ever suffered in the process of European integration.
Climate Change in Spain: Friend and Foe–Causes, Consequences and Response– (WP) WP 26/2008 - 9/6/2008 Lara Lázaro-Touza Climate change is unequivocal and Spain is one of the most vulnerable countries within the EU. The consequences for the Spanish economy will vary depending on the sector analysed. Tourism, the construction sector and the insurance sector stand to lose if mitigation and adaptation are further delayed.
Turkey’s Conundrum: Are the Country’s Versions of Secularism and Political Islam Compatible? (WP) WP 24/2008 - 26/5/2008 William Chislett Two concepts of secularism are on trial in Turkey, where the Constitutional Court is studying a case to ban the ruling Justice and Development party (AKP). Whatever the outcome of the case, it will intensify the growing cleavage between the AKP and the secular establishment and hence have repercussions on Turkey’s already protracted bid to become a full member of the European Union (EU).
Spain, Lebanon and UNIFIL (WP) WP 21/2008 - 20/5/2008 George Emile Irani This study assesses the causes and results of the war in the summer of 2006 and its implications for local, regional and global politics. It also focuses on Spain’s military involvement in Lebanon, especially on the relationship between the Spanish UNIFIL contingent and the local population in South Lebanon.
Language and Immigration: An Analysis of the Development of Linguistic Requirements in Immigration Policy (WP) WP 17/2008 (Translated from Spanish) - 12/5/2008 Rut Bermejo What relationship exists between language and migratory patterns? What is the role of language in flows of immigrants and in immigration policies? Is it advantageous for an immigrant to know the language of the host country? These and other questions are at the heart of this reflection on the relationship between the language an immigrant speaks and the dominant language of the host country.
The Mujahedin in Nagorno-Karabakh: A Case Study in the Evolution of Global Jihad (WP) WP 20/2008 - 9/5/2008 Michael Taarnby The current volume of publications dealing with Islamist militancy and terrorism defies belief in terms of its contents. This paper is a modest attempt to direct more attention and interest towards the much overlooked sub-field of historical research within Jihadi studies.
Energy Security with a High External Dependence: The Strategies of Japan and South Korea (WP) WP 16/2008 (Translated from Spanish) - 14/4/2008 Pablo Bustelo Apart from China, there are two other large energy consumers in North-East Asia: Japan and South Korea. This Working Paper briefly addresses the position and energy forecasts for the two countries. It proceeds to analyse the strategic responses of Tokyo and Seoul to the deterioration (whether perceived or real) of their energy security, highlighting the strengths and weaknesses of each approach. Finally, the paper details some of the lessons that other countries which are highly dependent on energy imports might learn from the experience of Japan and South Korea.
The Mediterranean Union: A Union in Search of a Project (WP) WP 13/2008 (Translated from Spanish) - 14/4/2008 Gonzalo Escribano and Alejandro Lorca A French proposal to create a Mediterranean Union has drawn much attention on the Euro-Mediterranean political scene. So far the proposal is somewhere between vague and indeterminate. It is important for Spain to join this process so as to guide it from the inside with coherent ideas.
Kosovo’s Independence from the Perspective of the Right to Free Determination (WP) WP 7/2008 (Translated from Spanish) - 10/4/2008 Romualdo Bermejo García and Cesáreo Gutiérrez Espada The political situation in Kosovo grew more complicated as the deadline approached for agreeing on a statute to define its future. Intense debate is guaranteed because whatever solution is agreed for Kosovo’s status will serve as a precedent for similar cases in Europe and elsewhere.
Afghanistan and Lebanon: Assessment of the Jihadist Risk to Spain (WP) WP 8/2008 (Translated from Spanish) - 11/3/2008 Miguel Luparelli Mathieu, José Antonio Mathés and Andrés Montero Gómez This analysis is based on a game theory model which assumes the premise that the behaviour of Jihadist groups (taken generally, and al-Qaeda in particular) and of States is rational and responds to strategic choices. It begins with an introduction to the context which situates Spain and global Jihadist groups on opposing sides of the game board of strategic interests. There follows an analysis of each of the scenarios and their implications in the strategies of Jihadist organisations, as well as their influence on Spanish foreign policy and international security policy decisions.
The Future of Gas and the Role of LNG: Economic and Geopolitical Implications (WP) WP 14/2008 - 11/3/2008 René Snijder This paper provides an overview of the economic, regulatory and geopolitical implications of the trend towards a greater natural gas import dependency of the major natural gas markets and the potential for LNG. It is based on a presentation by the author on 15 October 2007 in the 7th working meeting of the Elcano Royal Institute’s energy group in Gijón (Spain).
Energy and Geopolitics in Latin America (WP) WP 12/2008 (Translated from Spanish) - 10/3/2008 Paul Isbell Since the beginning of this century, Latin America has become an increasingly important region on the world’s geopolitical map. Several economic and political features define Latin America’s current geopolitical situation and set it apart from other episodes of the region’s history.
The Surge: The Results of the US Security Plan in Iraq in 2007 (WP) WP 2/2008 (Translated from Spanish) - 12/2/2008 Félix Arteaga and Carlota García Encina Four years after the invasion of Iraq, the U.S.’s strategy has not yet reached the final objective of making Iraq into a democratic country able to govern and defend itself.
Fatah al-Islam: Anthropological Perspectives on Jihadi Culture (WP) WP 6/2008 - 12/2/2008 Michael Taarnby and Lars Hallundbaek This paper argues that the Jihadi culture of Fatah al-Islam is an appropriated and non-traditional culture which must be defended at all costs by its followers precisely because it is an artificial entity.
New Propaganda: The Public Diplomacy of the Authoritarian Regimes in China and Venezuela (WP) WP 3/2008 - 15/1/2008 Javier Noya Nowadays, we can talk about ‘new propaganda’ to refer to the positioning and communication strategies of authoritarian regimes like Venezuela and China. This paper analyses these two cases of ‘post-modern propaganda’, that is to say, authoritarian regimes’ use of the instruments of public diplomacy to achieve international prominence.
Will America’s New Counterinsurgency Doctrine Defeat al-Qaeda? (WP) WP 1/2008 - 10/1/2008 Sebestyén L. v. Gorka This paper discusses the concept of global insurgency and deals with the existing canon of COIN theory and case studies. It also looks at the connection between the practice of counterinsurgency and the broader world of politics and war–fighting. The document close with a discussion as to exactly how much the ‘Long War’ is in fact understandable as a form of COIN and whether al–Qaeda is truly an insurgent organisation.
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