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Anti-Americanism in Spain: The Weight of History WP47-2005 - 7.11.2005 William Chislett Spain’s feelings toward the United States are the coldest in Europe after Turkey, according to a poll by the German Marshall Fund. And they have been that way for a very long time. The country’s thermometer reading on a scale of 0-100 was 42º in 2005, only surpassed by Turkey’s 28º and compared with an average of 50º for the 10 countries surveyed (see Figure 1). The same degree of coldness towards the United States was brought out in the 16-country Pew Global Attitudes Project where only 41% of Spaniards said they had a very or somewhat favourable view of the United States. This surprises many people. After all, Spain has become a vibrant democracy and a successful market economy since the right-wing dictatorship of General Franco ended in 1975 with the death of the Generalísimo. Why are Spaniards so cool towards the United States?
Is International Terrorism What We Thought It Was? An Empirical Study of the Global Neosalafist Jihad in 2004 WP33-2005 - 3.11.2005 (Translated from Spanish, Revised & Extended Version) Fernando Reinares The current form of international terrorism is often characterised as a particularly new phenomenon. However, an empirical study of its main actors, scenarios, consequences and targets during the year 2004 indicates that international terrorism is to a greater extent a paradigm of conflicts inherent in the Islamic world itself than of a clash between civilisations
China and the Geopolitics of Oil in the Asian Pacific Region WP38-2005 - 5.9.2005 (Translated from Spanish) Pablo Bustelo China’s growing demand for oil is significantly changing international energy geopolitics, especially in the Asia Pacific region. The recent growth in oil consumption, combined with forecasts of increased oil imports (especially from the Middle East), have led to deep concern among Chinese leaders regarding their country’s energy security. They are responding in a number of different ways. In particular, they are determined to increase the security and reliability of oil imports by searching for new sources of supply, and to control purchases and transport routes, while boosting national production at any cost. This is already causing tension and could lead to further disputes with the US and other big oil consumers, such as Japan and India, as well as with other Asia Pacific countries. However, enhanced cooperation among the big East Asian economies (China, Japan and South Korea) is also a possibility.
Left to its Domestic Devices: How the Syrian Regime Boxed Itself In WP43-2005 - 3.10.2005 Bassam Haddad [1] Seasoned observers of Syria’s political economy have learned not to make much of apparent political changes there. This lesson holds today, but with a twist. Five years after the death of al-Asad senior, hopes, proclamations, and a series of promised ‘springs’ have gone unrealised. Economically, Syria’s growth has been lagging, with an increasingly narrowing window of opportunity in terms of its dwindling (known) oil reserves and the dearth of higher skills within the labour market. While stable, Syria’s political institutions are stagnant, including the slightly refurbished ruling Baath party, which continues to rule by reshuffling elites, not by restructuring the polity. Perhaps the most troubling part of Syria’s predicament is the seemingly invisible but actually growing wave of unprecedented social poverty in its recent history.
Africa’s last ‘Last Chance’? Reflections on the Commission for Africa and the Millennium Project Reports WP42-2005 - 19.9.2005 Andrew Mold It will only have escaped the attention of died-in-the-grain recluses that Africa has recently been firmly placed on the international agenda in a way that was perhaps unthinkable a couple of years ago. Music concerts, television documentaries and, above all, political meetings have all been carried out recently in support of African ‘development’. Two particular proposals have claimed the limelight: first, the Commission for Africa (CFA) set up last year by the British Prime Minister Tony Blair, compromising 18 commissioners, and whose report was published in the month before the G8 Summit in Gleneagles in July 2005, with the clear intention of getting at least some of the report’s recommendations endorsed by the G8 leaders
CBMs in Latin America and the effect of arms acquisitions by Venezuela WP41-2005 - 22.9.2005 Mark Bromley and Catalina Perdomo The acquisition of military technology need not be a threat to regional stability and security. Nevertheless, the diffusion of military technology brings risks, and certain weapon systems acquired in certain contexts can have an adverse effect on regional stability. In addition, in certain regions of the world, particularly Africa and Latin America, illegal flows of small arms and light weapons from one country can pose a threat to the national security of another
Can Reform Save the United Nations? Opportunities for Creating an Effective Multilateral Body for the 21st Century WP40-2005 - 20.9.2005 Johanna Mendelson Forman At a time of crisis in the international system and of particular ferment among those who support multilateralism, it is useful to recall the words of Eleanor Roosevelt: ‘the future belongs to those who believe in the beauty of dreams’. A United Nations advocate from its inception, Eleanor Roosevelt might have been on to something when she referred to the beauty of dreams. Indeed, the concept of a world membership organization created to end the scourge of wars and to promote peace is still an illusive mission as the UN enters its 60th year. The dream of a world where nation-states could be the sole arbiters of international relations is also a relic of a bygone era as non-governmental organizations, individuals and non-state actors have become key players in a world of diplomacy, international politics and conflict. Perhaps it is this dream that we talk about when approaching the subject of UN reform.
The symbolic Power of Nations WP35-2005 - 24.8.2005 (Translation from Spanish) Javier Noya The US’s hegemony as a superpower and its unilateralist reaction to international terrorism after 9/11 has reopened the debate on one of the key concepts of international relations: power. In this context, Joseph Nye’s theory of ‘soft power’ has become one of the most hotly debated in academic and political forums. Although this controversy dates back to before the war in Iraq, it has heated up considerably as a result of the damage the war has done to the image of the United States in the world. The question is: can soft power be as effective a resource as hard power to achieve foreign policy objectives?
Europeanisation without Europe? A critical reflection on the Neighbourhood Policy for the Mediterranean WP23-2005 - 6.6.2005 (Translation from Spanish) Gonzalo Escribano The Neighbourhood Policy is the European Union (EU) approach towards its new geographical borders in the wake of enlargement. This new focus is global in nature and aims to integrate EU foreign policies with its various neighbours under a common and coherent strategic umbrella
Years of Living Dangerously: From the Twin Deficits to the Balance of Financial Terror? WP28-2005 - 1.6.2005 Paul Isbell The US’s large and growing current account (or ‘external’) deficit, together with its significant government budget (or ‘internal’) deficit, has begun to place real limits on future US growth. Is current US growth sustainable in light of these ‘twin’ current account and government budget deficits? (Derived from, and based upon, a presentation given at the Casa de América in Madrid on 28 February 2005 in the Seminar ‘Tendencies in US Policies for the Next Four Years’)
What Prospects for the European Constitutional Treaty? WP25-2005 - 13.5.2005 Sebastian Kurpas, Marco Incerti, Justus Schönlau, Julia De Clerck-Sachsse (EPIN) The ratification process of the Constitutional Treaty has taken some unexpected turns, since the publication of the EPIN's initial report. The situation has changed especially dramatically in France. The report concluded that
Fear or Falsehood? Framing the 3/11 Terrorist Attacks in Madrid and Electoral Accountability WP24-2005 - 5.5.2005 José A. Olmeda This paper explores the following aspects of the terrorist attacks of 11 March 2004 in Madrid: Failures of organisation, anticipation and learning in the system of security crisis management (early alert and strategic surprise, information policy, police and intelligence leaks to the opposition and media, partisan politicisation of terrorist attacks) in comparison with the effective operation of the emergency respons; Whether the PP government mismanaged its relations with other elites and journalists, especially as it was unable to find compelling schemas that supported its main line of argument (‘the ETA authorship frame’) during the days before the election, while prime minister J.M. Aznar lost control of the frame because of his lack of credibility; and Under these circumstances, elite opponents and oppositional journalists could attain as much influence over framing as the government, and developed their own line assigning blame to the government (‘the government is lying’ frame), winning the both frame contest and the elections.
Farewell to Funds? Keys to Understanding Spain’s Position When Negotiating the 2007-13 EU Budget José I. Torreblanca WP21-2005 - 9.5.2005 Provided that the French vote “Yes” in the referendum on the 29th May, the European Council meeting in June this year is set out for reaching a budgetary deal for the 2007-2013. However, as economic stagnation in the Euro-area leads the richest EU countries to increasingly see the way out of their economic problems in reducing their contribution to the EU budget, Spain runs the risk of bearing in solitaire the burden of Eastern enlargement. Having been agricultural expenditure shielded from any substantial cuts due to the Franco-German agreement of October 2002, most of the money currently on the negotiation table is the cohesion and structural money from which Spain benefits so much. Because Spain risks to become a net contributor to the budget before having reached real convergence with the EU-15, the negotiations on the next financial perspectives (2007-2013) can be depicted as the most crucial of all those which Spain has been involved so far. Why so?
The Impact of US Foreign Direct Investment in Spain WP19-2005 - 10.5.2005 (Translation from Spanish) Gayle Allard, Rafael Pampillón On the basis of theory and empirical evidence, we can predict that US direct investment in Spain will prove to have contributed to the country’s economic growth, raised its technological level and possibly its productivity, increased its exports and provided its workforce with better-paid, higher-skilled jobs than those offered by local companies. This study sets out precisely to determine whether the macroeconomic statistics bear out our prediction that these effects have occurred in Spain
War, Terrorism and Elections: Electoral Impact of the Islamist Terror Attacks on Madrid WP13-2005 - 6.4.2005 (Translation from Spanish) Narciso Michavila The impact of the ‘3/11’ terrorist attacks (March 11, 2004) on the Spanish elections held three days later has been the subject of speculation of all kinds. Twelve months later, the time has now come to compare and contrast the hypotheses that have attempted to explain an unexpected electoral result. New data is provided here to help determine the direction and the magnitude of the influence of the attacks on the March 14 elections
¿A Difference that Makes a Difference? The US and Europe on Values and Culture WP16-2005 - 22.3.2004 Emilio Lamo de Espinosa It is a well-known fact that, with the end of the Cold War, there started to be a strategic drifting apart between the US and Europe. The latter was no longer the battleground of a future third world war between NATO and the Warsaw Pact, and this had at least two major consequences which are still very much alive. On the one hand, the US lost strategic interest in Europe and the focus of its attention on foreign policy moved elsewhere, to the Middle East and, of course, to the Pacific and China and Asia. Europe became the blind spot in America’s eye. It still is.
From the 2004 Ibero-American summit (San José, Costa Rica) to the 2005 Ibero-American summit (Salamanca, Spain) WP5-2005 - 27.1.2005 (Translation from Spanish) Celestino del Arenal The 14th Ibero-American Summit of heads of state and government, held on November 19-20, 2004, in San José, Costa Rica, brought to light very clearly the crisis and complexity of the project to establish a common Ibero-American space. The summits themselves are the highest expression of this common space and at the next one, in Salamanca in October 2005, Spain’s Socialist government will be facing the definitive failure or success of the Ibero-American project
Emigrant's Remittances in Spain: an Opportunity for Action Abroad WP3-2005 - 25.1.2005 (Translation from Spanish) Iñigo Moré In Spain, remittances are the main expression of international solidarity in economic terms, and the same is true globally, where the worldwide flow of remittances more than doubles Official Aid to Development globally. Yet these flows are much more than family charity. In net terms, remittances are currently the main vehicle to transfer funds from rich to poor countries. In gross terms, they exceed development aid, foreign investment or tourist revenues in most developing countries
Armed Conflicts and International Security: A factual and analytical review WP7-2005 - 6.2.2005 Alyson J.K Bailes and Sharon Wiharta There can be no doubt about the dominance of conflict as a concern in modern security analysis and policy. Localized and active conflicts have attracted proportionately much greater attention since the ending of the East-West Cold War and, with it, of the essentially static military confrontation in Europe that had carried the potential for global annihilation. They produce more shock and shame, as well as concern, in the onlooker because they appear as exceptions to the trend of stabilization in inter-state and inter-regional relations since 1990 and as a reversion to “pre-modern” methods of behaving in the global society. They carry more complicated material implications for non-combatant states because of the generally increasing interdependence and “globalization” of the world economy
Spanish Ratification Monitor (WP) WP 8/2005 - 3/02/2005 José I. Torreblanca and Alicia Sorroza This working paper is the collaboration of the Elcano Royal Institute’s Europe Area to the Ratification Monitor Project with the framework of the European Policy Institutes Network (EPIN, www.epin.org) to which the Institute belongs. This National Survey provides comprehensive and easy access to the Spanish national debate around the ratification process of the Constitutional Treaty (Updated on 21 February).
Hispanics in the US: Where the Business Opportunity is WP4-2005 - 26.1.2005 M. Isabel Valdés No longer can any business afford to ignore the US Hispanic or Latino market. During the past four decades, a significant number of immigrants from every country in Latin America have become active members of the US consumer market. In less than 40 years the US Hispanic consumer market has more than quadrupled in size. However, understanding how the Hispanic market is segmented is vital for any business strategy to be successful.
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