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ARI (Analisis of the Real Instituto Elcano) : U.S. - Transatlantic Dialogue
What Are US Interests in Latin America? (ARI) ARI 141/2005 - 29.11.2005 Soeren Kern The fourth Summit of the Americas, held in Mar del Plata, Argentina on 4-5 November, offered an opportunity for the United States to reaffirm its commitment to Latin America. But the failure by leaders in the hemisphere even to agree on a final summit document increases the likelihood that the United States will further disengage from the restive region.
Will the United Nations be reformed? ARI N 131/2005 - 11.3.2005 Soeren Kern The September 2005 World Summit offered an historic opportunity to reshape the United Nations to better confront a range of global threats and challenges. But the gathering failed to find a solution to the UN’s core problem: the lack of a global consensus on multilateralism.
Why Changing the Security Council Threatens Broader UN Reform ARI 106/2005 - 29.7.2005 Soeren Kern ARI 106/2005 - 29.7.2005 After a decade of informal
Is Iran Heading Towards a Showdown with the US? ARI 85/2005 - 7.7.2005 Soeren Kern With the election of Tehran’s fundamentalist mayor as Iran’s new president, the hard-line clerical establishment has consolidated its power in all branches of the Iranian government. This will undermine the chance for reconciliation between Iran and the United States
Why the New Transatlantic Agenda Should, But Won’t, Be Reformed (ARI) ARI 51/2005 - 21/4/2005 Soeren Kern The New Transatlantic Agenda (NTA) was established in 1995 with the aim of reducing transatlantic tensions. Ten years later, the number of US-European disputes has multiplied and transatlantic relations are at their worst since 1945
Who is Running US Foreign Policy? (ARI) ARI 23/2005 - 17/2/2005 Soeren Kern The new line-up suggests that hawks have consolidated their hold on power and will dominate the US foreign policymaking machinery during the next four years. Indeed, Bush has retained in the National Security Council and the Department of Defense almost all of the hard-liners who drove policy on Iraq during the past four years
Are China and the US Drifting Towards War over Taiwan? ARI 37/2005 - 16.3.2005 Soeren Kern On 14 March China approved a law that codifies its long-standing threat to use military force if Taiwan formally declares independence. The measure could touch off a destabilising action-reaction cycle that could spin out of control and draw China into unnecessary armed conflict with the United States over Taiwan
Redefining National Boundaries: Changing Relations Between Diasporas and Latin American States (ARI) ARI 16/2005 - 3.2.2005 Rodolfo de la Garza and Jerónimo Cortina Primarily because of greatly increased immigration from Latin America, Latin American States are developing new relationships that emphasise immigrant concerns such as protecting immigrant rights, providing them assistance with a wide range of problems and supporting community-sponsored cultural activities. Governments are also working with their émigrés to mobilise them into lobbies that will act to advance home-country interests and to increase the sums emigrants remit to their home countries
Is the United States Going to Bomb Iran? ARI 12/2005 - 28.1.2005 Soeren Kern A recent flurry of statements by senior US officials indicates that the United States has opted to take a hard-line approach towards Iran, which many analysts believe could build a nuclear bomb within the next four years. European leaders have been quick to stress the need for diplomacy over military action. If EU diplomacy fails to end the standoff with Iran, a confrontation between Washington and Tehran appears inevitable
The Geopolitics of Tsunami Relief ARI 8/2005 - 20.1.2005 Soeren Kern The global response to the Indian Ocean seaquake and tsunami disaster has been unprecedented. More than 50 governments and agencies have pledged some US$5 billion in aid; companies and individuals have promised another US$1.5 billion. Although this generosity will create a number of diplomatic openings, the long-term implications for international politics will be limited
Continuity, Not Change: The Latino Vote in 2004 ARI 4/2005 - 12.1.2005 Rodolfo de la Garza The Latino vote in 2004 closely resembled the patterns of 2000. Most noteworthy is that despite claims to the contrary, there is no evidence of a substantial increase in support for President Bush. To the contrary, evidence from pre-election polls documents a consistent pattern of Democratic support. Moreover, exit polls showing an increase in Republican voting are methodologically flawed and unreliable. Also, given that neither party tried to mobilise Latinos in California, Texas, New York or Illinois, states where the majority of Latinos reside, it is reasonable to conclude that Latino Democrats turned out at unusually low rates. Thus, it is reasonable to argue that the votes Bush received in 2004 overstate his real level of support among Latinos
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