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ARI (Analisis of the Real Instituto Elcano) : U.S. - Transatlantic Dialogue
North Korea in the second Bush administration ARI Nº 190/2004 (Translation from Spanish) - 5.1.2004 Pablo Bustelo US policy on the nuclear crisis with North Korea may become both more active and stricter in the wake of President Bush’s re-election and the changes unveiled in his administration. If Washington decides to up the pressure on Pyongyang, either to force North Korea to capitulate, or to bring about regime change in the country, tension could mount rather than subside, causing an unnecessary escalade in the conflict. Defusing the crisis, on the other hand, requires greater flexibility and creativity on the part of the US, which is indeed what South Korea, China and Russia have been demanding for some time
Can the United Nations Be Reformed? ARI Nº 200/2004 - 23.12.2004 Soeren Kern United Nations Secretary General Kofi Annan on 2 December released his much anticipated report on internal reform. The report proposes to reshape the UN to make it both more effective and more equitable. It contains many sensible proposals that touch on everything from nuclear proliferation to looming pandemics. Nevertheless, most of the debate about the future of the UN revolves around the question of American power and influence. Indeed, the report includes proposals that set out to contain the use of US military force. This will play into the hands of powerful anti-UN voices in American politics, with the effect that few if any of the reform proposals will be implemented
Spanish-US Economic Relations: How Important are the Aznar-Zapatero Gyrations? ARI Nº 197/2004 - 22.12.2004 Paul Isbell While the Spanish-US economic relationship arguably remains relatively underdeveloped, our tentative conclusion is that the impact on the bilateral economic relationship of the Aznar-Zapatero gyrations in Spain’s political relationship with the US has proved relatively insignificant and is likely to remain marginal in the future
Why the United States Will Remain Assertive Abroad ARI Nº 182/2004 - 1.12.2004 Soeren Kern President George W. Bush’s nomination of Condoleezza Rice as Secretary of State is certain to put a more assertive stamp on US foreign policy during the next four years. By replacing Colin Powell, who frequently strayed from White House orthodoxy, Bush has signalled that he is determined to fix a dysfunctional relationship that hampered the execution of his foreign policy during his first term. Similar moves at the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) and the National Security Council (NSC) show that Bush aims to take full control of his national security bureaucracy, and imply that he and Vice President Dick Cheney will dominate all aspects of US foreign policy decision-making
The Issues of the Bush Victory in 2004: Terrorism, But Not Moral Values ARI Nº 177/2004 (Translation from Spanish) - 16.11.2004 Josep M. Colomer This paper analyses the issues that decisively shaped the election agenda during the United States presidential campaign and election of 2 November 2004. It can be expected that, during his second term, President George W. Bush will find different degrees of popular support to pursue new policy initiatives on various issues
What We Learned from the US Presidential Election ARI Nº 170/2004 - 4.11.2004 Soeren Kern The decisive re-election of President George W. Bush –with larger Republican majorities in both houses of Congress– confirms that the United States is a centre-right country. Nevertheless, the country remains divided. Indeed, the campaign highlighted cultural divisions within American society that in many ways reflect the source of the current tensions in trans-Atlantic relations
The Human Touch: Kerry vs Bush in the White House ARI Nº 168/2004 - 2.11.2004 Tomas Valasek Does it matter whether George W. Bush is re-elected to a second term? While there is little doubt that most Europeans would prefer a changing of the guard in the White House, it is equally true that on issues that most exasperate America’s allies on the old continent, the US president’s hands are tied. So is Europe not deluding itself in attaching so much importance to a changing of the guard? Or, on the contrary, could a different president make substantial changes in US policies towards Europe
Bush versus Kerry: The Economy in the Balance? (ARI - Part III) ARI Nº 164/2004 - 29.10.2004 Paul Isbell Beyond what each candidate broadly claims he would do with the economy, and given the global economic context, what is most likely to happen in the alternative economic scenarios of a Bush or a Kerry Presidency?
Bush versus Kerry: The Economy in the Balance? (ARI - Part II) ARI Nº 163/2004 - 29.10.2004 Paul Isbell What kind of international economic context will a President Bush or a President Kerry face? What does it imply for either candidate’s future potential room for manoeuvre?
Bush versus Kerry: The Economy in the Balance? ARI Nº 161/2004 - 26.10.2004 Paul Isbell Before the US presidential debates, it was widely agreed that while a majority of Americans still placed more faith in George Bush in matters concerning national security, most believed that John Kerry would deal with economic issues more effectively and fairly than has (or would) President Bush. Furthermore, while a growing consensus of analysts now claim –almost to the point of cliché– that the foreign policy stances of the two candidates are not radically different from each other their positions on economic matters do appear to be quite distinct and materially different
The Latino Vote in 2004 ARI Nº 157/2004 - 19.10.2004 Rodolfo O. de la Garza This article explores how electoral structures and partisanship interact with the size and distribution of the Hispanic population to shape the role Latinos will play in the 2004 presidential election
What We Learned from the US Presidential Debate ARI Nº 151/2004 - 6.10.2004 Soeren Kern The first debate of this year’s presidential campaign was about foreign policy–which candidate could best protect America in a dangerous world–. Overall, George W Bush and his Democratic challenger, John F Kerry, did not raise many new arguments. And in substance the two men share almost the exact same views on most major foreign policy issues, even if they differ in style. Nevertheless, the debate did offer some interesting details about how the candidates believe America should pursue its goals in the world
Bush or Kerry: Why the Substance of US Foreign Policy Will Not Change ARI Nº 148/2004 - 29.9.2004 Soeren Kern This is the biggest foreign-policy election in the United States since 1968. Because preventing nuclear terrorism will be the defining national security issue of the next administration, Iraq, Iran and North Korea will dominate US national security concerns. This means that US foreign policy will not fundamentally shift from the past four years, even if John Kerry wins the White House
Bush, Kerry and Iran ARI Nº 144/2004 - 24.9.2004 Soeren Kern Whether it’s Bush or Kerry in the White House next year, defusing the nuclear proliferation crisis with Iran –which many analysts believe will acquire nuclear weapons within the next four years– will constitute one of the most complex and pressing challenges facing the next administration
Calle Ocho and the Embargo: The Evolution of Cuban American Views on US-Cuba Policy[1] ARI Nº 140/2004 - 20.9.2004 Richard A. Figueroa This ARI analyses the influence of Hispanics on American foreign policy by focusing on the important role that Cuban Americans have played in maintaining a hallmark policy of the United States in fighting Communism: the Cuban Embargo
From 9-11 to 3-11: Spain’s Role in the European Union ARI Nº 48/2004 (Translation from Spanish) - 2.6.2004 Carlos Closa Montero September 11 has had an impact on the EU and the processes underway since then, especially the negotiations on the Constitution. Now, March 11 poses new questions regarding the possible repercussions of the terrible terrorist attacks committed in Madrid.
Terrorism Revisited (ARI) ARI Nº 59/2004 - 30/3/2004 Tomas Valasek One of the desired effects of the Madrid bombing seems to have been to splinter the Western alliance. The allies must see through the trap, acknowledge mistakes, produce a stricter definition of the threat of terrorism and create a new strategy for fighting its sources
Securitizing Migration after 11 March ARI Nº 56/2004 - 26.3.2003 James C. Ross This analysis draws on the recent experience of the United States to address perceived immigration risks since 9/11, and weighs the prospect of adopting similar approaches in Spain and the European Union following the 11 March terrorist attacks in Madrid
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