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ARI (Analisis of the Real Instituto Elcano) : Mediterranean & Arab World
Lebanon’s Choice: Dante’s Inferno or More’s Utopia? (ARI) ARI 87/2007 - 24/7/2007 George Emile Irani Lebanon is faced with an internal political deadlock and the threat of being overwhelmed by salafi groups bent on destabilising it. The basic domestic political issues at this point are: the formation of a new national unity government, the election of a new President (the mandate of the current President Emile Lahoud expires this autumn), the creation of a new tribunal to investigate the killing of former Prime Minister Rafiq al Hariri and his escort, and the rising threat of al-Qaeda-inspired salafi groups such as Fatah al-Islam.
The EU, the US and the Muslim World (ARI) ARI 83/2007 - 19/7/2007 Haizam Amirah-Fernández Divergent policies and threat perceptions in the US and the EU concerning the Muslim world, as well as differences in strategic culture and historical experience, make transatlantic cooperation less relevant than is required by current challenges.
Will the Fourth Gulf War be Avoided? (ARI) ARI 62/2007 (Translated from Spanish) - 12/07/2007 Haizam Amirah-Fernández The expulsion of the Taliban from Afghanistan and the neo-con fiasco in Iraq have strengthened the role of the Shias and of Iran in the Middle East. Will a new regional war be avoided?
Post-Saddam Iraq: A Growing Threat to the Middle East (ARI) ARI 21/2007 (Translated from Spanish) - 1/3/2007 Haizam Amirah Fernández Saddam Hussein’s Iraq posed a threat to peace and security in the Middle East. Now in the throes of a process of decomposition, the country could become a source of new and even more serious threats for the region and for the international system.
The Lebanese Predicament: Stability or Civil War in 2007? (ARI) ARI 25/2007 - 19/2/2007 George Emile Irani The 1989 Taef Accord that ended the civil war in Lebanon is now proving to be outdated and overtaken by events. The fundamental issue is still the question of identity, values and choices. What kind of Lebanon do the Lebanese want?
US Strategy in the Middle East: Struggling to Avoid Failure (ARI) ARI 24/2007 - 16/2/2007 Augustus Richard Norton Surveying US history, one is hard pressed to find presidential decisions as monumentally ill-informed and counter-productive as the 2003 decision to invade and occupy Iraq. The question of the hour is whether the US will compound its strategic blunder by attacking Iran.
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