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ARI (Analisis of the Real Instituto Elcano) : Mediterranean & Arab World
The course of the Mexican economy in 2004 ARI Nº 193/2004 - 16.12.2004 Alfredo Arahuetes García The deceleration of the Mexican economy, which began in 2001 due to the sharp drop in activity in the US market –producing negative GDP growth of 0.1%–, was followed by two years of stagnation during which the Mexican economy achieved a significant degree of stability. These past three years have now given way, in 2004, to a recovery based mainly on the dynamism of exports, accompanied by the recovery of investment in associated sectors. For this reason, consolidation will depend on whether the current uncertainties in the international economy –derived from the American economy, which is the main market for Mexican exports– are dispelled and on the complex process of boosting the dynamism of the domestic market
Arafat and Palestine: An Onerous Legacy ARI Nº 194/2004 (Translation from spanish) - 17.12.2004 Samuel Hadas The death of Palestinian leader Yasser Arafat begins a new era, say politicians, experts and analysts around the world. Most of the hundreds if not thousands of comments published in recent weeks agree that his passing could at least make it possible to reopen the window of opportunity brusquely closed so many times before (some even consider it ‘a great doorway opened wide’). Indeed, the window is open a crack, but instead of the breeze of hope that many predict and desire, the winds of war could well blow again, closing the window for the umpteenth time if the leaders of both sides and the powers involved do not act coherently
Leasing of public farmland in Morocco ARI Nº 175/2004 (Translation from Spanish) - 30.11.2004 Iñigo Moré The area offered for tender is the equivalent of 100,000 football pitches and represents an interesting business opportunity. It is also an opportunity to strengthen Moroccan-European relations in a sector that is the backbone of the Moroccan economy and an area of great sensitivity for the European Union.
Morocco is Failing to Take Off ARI Nº 145/2004 (Translation from Spanish) - 27.9.2004 Haizam Amirah Fernández When Mohammed VI took power in 1999, great hopes were raised both inside and outside Morocco. Five years later, discontent and disappointment are growing more quickly than the promised reforms
Saudi Arabia in 2004: Can it survive the terrorist threat? ARI Nº 119/2004 - 5.7.2004 Jean-François Seznec This paper will try to present a view of the socio-political structure of the kingdom of Saudi Arabia today and estimate whether the present system can handle the congruant stresses of unemployment among the young, the call for jihad by the extremists, the rift between the United States and Saudi Arabia at a time of uncertain leadership
Algeria after the re-election of Abdelaziz Bouteflika ARI Nº 87/2004 (Translation from Spanish) - 2.6.2004 Miguel Hernando de Larramendi Abdelaziz Bouteflika was re-elected president of the Republic of Algeria in the first round of presidential elections held on April 8, 2004. Repeated declarations of neutrality by the armed forces, as well as the willingness expressed by the Chief of the General Staff, Mohamed Lamari, to accept the victory of any candidate –including the leader of the Islah Islamist party, Abdallah Jabala– led international observers to take greater interest in these elections. On this occasion, unlike during the presidential elections of 1999, the other candidates did not withdraw, which helped make the elections appear relatively open and competitive. The weight of the armed forces in Algerian politics remains a decisive factor in any analysis of Algerian political and economic life. Bouteflika’s victory strengthens his position in the political system, though the unexpected magnitude of his win undermines the credibility of elections that were meant to give the world the impression that a democratizing process is underway after more than a decade of civil war –with the post-9/11 international context of the war against terrorism as a backdrop
For More Realistic and Efficient Spanish-Moroccan Relations (ARI) ARI 73/2004 - 4/5/2004 José María López Bueno Historically, the varying quality of Spanish-Moroccan relations has been determined almost exclusively by the vicissitudes of domestic politics in both countries. However, despite the numerous ups and downs, Perejil included, the official rhetoric has always expressed a ‘mutual desire to strengthen fruitful relations between fraternal nations’.It appears necessary to promote a more realistic framework for cross-border relations.
Does al-Qaeda have a global strategy? ARI Nº 74/2004 (Translation from Spanish) - 4.5.2004 Haizam Amirah Fernández The attacks in Madrid on March 11 of this year are an example of how terrorists, when choosing a place, time and form of action, can help generate reactions which, in turn, have amplified consequences that serve their purposes. A demonstration of this tragic fact is how those who use terror for their political ends have developed an alarming capacity to analyze and predict events. Their understanding of the realities and mechanisms that govern open societies contrasts with the difficulties these societies face when attempting to predict the strategy and methods used by al-Qaedist groups
The Fight Against Islamist Terrorism After the March 11 Attacks: Lessons Learnt ARI Nº 41/2004 (Translation from Spanish) - 23.4.2003 Carlos Echeverría Jesús If there is one thing we should learn from recent terrorist actions, it is the terrorists’ ability to surprise us. This first large-scale Islamist attack in Europe has shown that what some dismissed as alarmist scaremongering has now become a reality. To combat this threat we need greater international coordination and cooperation than there has been so far, enhanced preventative capacity and a root-and-branch rethink of existing terrorist policies
Behind the Moroccan Terrorist Connection: State Policies and Saudi Wahhabism (ARI) ARI Nº 60/2004 - 31/3/2004 Abdeslam Maghraoui Contrary to what is usually believed, a survey by the Pew Research Center indicates that religious intolerance and radicalization is wide and deep in Moroccan society
The Moroccan Combatant Group ARI Nº 51 /2004 (Translation from French) - 30.3.2004 Mohamed Darif The author analyzes Morocco’s most active radical Islamist group, reviewing its creation and the presence of Moroccan volunteers in Afghanistan, its relations with Osama Bin Laden and its logistic support to al-Qaeda and, finally, its shift in strategy following the attacks of 11 September 2001 towards more overt terrorist activities
Possible consequences of the terrorist attacks in Madrid ARI Nº 40/2004 (Translation from Spanish) - 25.3.2004 Javier Jordán These are a series of considerations on the consequences of the attacks of 11 March, with some suggestions that may help stem the most negative effects
New threats from al-Qaeda ARI Nº 54/2004 - 24.3.2004 Juan Avilés (originally published in Spanish 30/11/2002) The events of the last few weeks underline the global threat posed by al-Qaeda, which will probably now turn to targets in Europe. Spain should pay particular attention to this risk
Terrorism in Morocco: a security concern for Spain ARI Nº 53/2004 - 24.3.2004 Domingo del Pino The terrorist attacks last May 16 in Casablanca force Spain to pay a greater attention to the state of Morocco’s internal affairs. Eventual instability in Morocco would affect Spain, given the importance of Spanish interests there, of their common sea and land borders and of the nature of the recurrent problems between the two countries. Following is an analysis of how Spanish interests would be affected if the recent attacks eventually led to instability in the Kingdom of Morocco
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