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ARI (Analisis of the Real Instituto Elcano) : Mediterranean & Arab World
Morocco-Spain: a relationship difficult to repair ARI Nº 106-2002 (Translation from spanish) - 22.11.2002 Domingo del Pino A year after the Moroccan ambassador in Madrid was recalled, relations between Spain and Morocco do not appear to be on track. Hopes placed on the technocratic government of Driss Jettou have vanished quickly.
The Problem of the Palestinian Elections ARI Nº 103-2002 - 19.11.2002 (Translation from spanish) José María Ferré The date set by Arafat for holding Palestinian elections -20th January 2003- does not appear to be realistic. Some currently non-existent minimum conditions for democracy and pluralism need to be established in the Territories.
The Arab world: the Challenges of Transition ARI Nº 102-2002 - 18.11.2002 Shafeeq Ghabra September 11th brought all the issues of the Arab world to the stage; all the inconsistencies, the contradictions, cycles of crisis and political discourses. 9-11 and the US reactions and policies shook the Arab world. It created a dynamic and a process that is beyond our ability to stop and control.
Origins and Consequences of the Second Intifada ARI Nº 101-2002 - 12.11.2002 (Translation from spanish) José Luis Calvo Albero Despite its minor character in comparison with other contemporary conflicts, the confrontation between Palestinians and Israelis has a proven destabilizing capability not just on a regional scale, but also worldwide. The Second Intifada has led both contenders into a vicious circle of self-destruction, which is already being mixed with other regional problems to paint a very dangerous scenario for global stability.
The Dilemma of the Kurdish Opposition in Iraq ARI Nº 99-2002 - 12.11.2002 (Translation from spanish) Manuel Martorell The Kurdish opposition forces, which have governed an independent state "de facto" in the mountainous area in Northern Iraq since the end of the Golf War, have been called to play a significant role in the new crisis that has blown up between Saddam Hussein and the United States. The current international situation has positioned the two main organisations -the Kurdistan Democratic Party (KDP) and the Patriotic Union of Kurdistan (PUK)- in a situation where they may risk their control over Iraqi Kurdistan, by joining the North American stance.
The Sahara Issue and the Stability of Morocco ARI Nº 98-2002 - 12.11.2002 (Translation from spanish) Ángel Pérez González The Spanish position on the future of the Sahara is the correct one. Any change favouring Morocco, as some analysts and politicians of different leanings have suggested by, must be given serious consideration, since this could negatively affect Spain's strategic interests.
Iraq and International Public Opinion ARI Nº 97-2002 - 11.11.2002 (Translation from spanish) Javier Noya An analysis of international public opinion regarding a hypothetical attack against Iraq shows, first of all, that in the US, attitudes are more plural, nuanced, and multilateralist than might be deduced from some statements or strategies of the American government. Secondly, despite the widely held view after September 11, there is a notable lack of understanding between the US and Europe
Iran at a crossroad ARI Nº 89-2002 - 29.10.2002 (Translation from spanish) Ramón Blecua For the past two years, the political situation in Iran has been dominated by a protracted power struggle between different factions, broadly aligned in two opposing camps defined as reformist and conservative. This widely accepted definition could be a misleading simplification of the country's complex political system, this being one of the reasons why many predictions on the evolution of the regime are often proven inaccurate. As Wilfred Buchta has argued in a penetrating essay on the power structure of Iran, "these factions can assume very different positions on different issues, which makes it impossible to categorize a given individual as definitely moderate or radical".
The Launching of the Facility for Euro-Mediterranean Investment: Towards a New Euro-Mediterranean Bank? ARI Nº 79-2002 - 18.10.2002 Clara Mira A new Facility for Euro-Mediterranean Investment and Partnership (FEMIP) within the European Investment Bank (EIB) was officially launched in Barcelona. This new initiative is an ambitious step in the reinvigoration of EU relations with the Mediterranean and in its effort to contribute to the prosperity of the region. Its creation is a positive step forward, and it was the best agreement that could be reached given the current climate in the EU, but it may not be the best possible option.
Electoral Parallels between Morocco and Algeria ARI Nº 77-2002 - 18.10.2002 (Translation from spanish) Ignacio Cembrero Despite the eleven years separating the elections in Algeria in December 1991 from those hold in Morocco on last September 27th, there are many similarities. Both plebiscites were acknowledged as the most transparent in the history of these two countries and in both cases it was seen that most of those who voted had Islamic tendencies. Faced with this outcome, the Algerian authorities interrupted the electoral proceedings and dissolved the Islamic party. The country was plunged into violence. The Moroccans have used pressure and negotiation behind the scenes to weaken the electoral strength of the Islamic faction
On the Islamic fundamentalist threat in Morocco: an analysis based on recent events ARI Nº 76-2002 - 18.10.2002 (Translation from spanish) Héctor Cebolla Boado Since last Spring, Moroccan society has been immersed in a long and complicated debate on the possibility of an Islamic fundamentalist threat to the country. This analysis identifies the most recent events that have shaped this discussion: the probable electoral success of the moderate Islamic Party for Justice and Development (PJD); the violent acts encouraged by certain Salafist factions in the country and the dismantling of the Hichra wa Takfir (Expiation and Hegira) group. The coincidence in time has led to some psychosis in several newspapers and broad sectors of civil society. Nevertheless, because of the September 2002 elections, the debate was artificially fanned. For the time being, there does not appear to be any serious threat of fundamentalism in Morocco, at least, no greater than it was two or three years ago.
The Houston Summit: Implications for the Geopolitics of Oil ARI Nº 71-2002 - 16.10.2002 Paul Isbell The US-Russia Commercial Energy Summit marked yet another milestone in the transition from the Cold War to a new strategic order. Ever since the Gulf War, when the Soviet Union stood aside while the US organized its international coalition to displace Iraqi forces from Kuwait, US-Russia relations have continued to undergo profound historic changes. It has been the issue of energy supplies which has brought the two ex-arch enemies from the Cold War era increasingly closer together.
Reinventing Global Security ARI Nº 66-2002 - 11.6.2003 Eduardo Serra It could be seen as an historical joke, but between 11/9 (November the 9th, 1989) and 9/11 (September 11th 2001), the whole world mutated from the old bipolar system to a new post-bipolar environment. The dramatic terrorist attacks over New York and Washington signalled the end of the 90s, making everyone face, with no warning, the dark side of globalisation. Also to accept the reality that we were too vulnerable and a relatively easy target for people like Osama Bin Laden, declared enemies of our way of life. (Conference given by Eduardo Serra, chairman of the Real Instituto Elcano in Brussels, 11 June, 2003)
A Businessman at the Head of the Moroccan Government ARI Nº 69-2002 - 11.10.2002 (Translation from spanish) Domingo del Pino Ten years after the elections that surprised the Algerian establishment with an Islamist victory, the authorities in Morocco have received a similar shock with the important electoral advance achieved by their country's Islamists. Driss Jettou's appointment as Prime Minister is the Moroccan political system's soft response to an Islamism that is, for the moment, also soft.
Spain increases its Algerian energy dependence ARI Nº 66-2002 - 7.10.2002 (Translation from spanish) Iñigo Moré Algeria is Spain's main energy supplier, with a market share much higher than the second supplier and almost twice as large as the third. Although the "secure supply" concept is now in vogue thanks to a recent European guideline project, Spain has been working along these lines for quite some time. In 1998, it prohibited any country from having more than a 60% market share in gas supplies. This limit has always been considered indicative and, judging from the most recent energy plan, it does not seem that the Spanish government is going to be rigid in its interpretation.
Moroccan Parliamentary Elections 2002: Insufficient Efort for Democratic Change ARI Nº 65-2002 - 4.10.2002 (Translation from spanish) Domingo del Pino The Moroccan socialist party obtained the most seats in the recent parliamentary elections. King Mohammed VI will probably entrust the socialist party with the task of forming a government, although the Constitution does not oblige him to do so. It will be a difficult job, due to the country's fragmented political map and the fact that Istiqlal, with almost the same number of votes, will be more demanding in the share-out of ministerial posts and departments.
The United Nations: Iraqi obligations ARI Nº 63-2002 - 9.10.2002 (Translation from spanish) Carlota García Encina and Alicia Sorroza Blanco Eleven years ago, after the Gulf War, the United Nations proposed the disarming of Iraq in order to avoid new risks to international security. This objective has still not been accomplished due to the systematic violation of the obligations imposed on the Government of Iraq, and which have been contained in the numerous resolutions adopted by the Security Council. With respect to the current debate on the legitimacy and the legality of an eventual attack on Iraq, it is essential to be familiar with the obligations that have been imposed on the Iraqi regime to date.
The essential Madrid-Algiers axis ARI Nº 61-2002 - 8.10.2002 (Translation from spanish) Iñigo Moré Before the present decade, relations between Spain and Algeria were slight and rather cold, a situation clearly reflected in their specific worldviews, the fruit of divergent political experiences. This phase will come to an end in October with the first state visit to Spain to be made by an Algerian President. During the course of the aforesaid visit several important agreements will be signed in order to promote both political and economic relations between the two nations.
Oil, geopolitics in the Middle East and OPEC ARI Nº 54-2002 - 9.10.2002 (Translation from spanish) Alejandro Vigil García The Middle East and OPEC are and will continue to be, the key to guaranteeing a sufficient supply of energy at a reasonable price. For this reason, achieving stability in the region is an increasingly important goal for the good health of the world economy and global security.
Oil: the next Spanish-Moroccan conflict? ARI Nº 49-2002 - 13.9.2002 (Translation from spanish) Iñigo Moré Morocco's energy shortage may be the cause of future discord between the governments of Rabat and Madrid. The exploration and drilling permits granted on either side of the Alboran Sea could inflict deep wounds in Spanish-Moroccan relations, particularly if oil is found. On the other hand, another potential conflict exists with respect to the possibility of finding oil in the waters of the Sahara. While these matters would not necessarily worsen Spanish-Moroccan relations, there is a risk that they may further thwart an understanding between the two countries.
Perejil/Leila: Lessons for Europe. Why Have All Failed? ARI Nº 28-2002 - 19.7.2002 Álvaro de Vasconçelos The most shocking aspect of the current crisis is that in the year or so since the Morrocan ambassador was recalled from Madrid, diplomacy has failed on both sides to find solutions to the dispute that poisons relations between Morroco and Spain.
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