Emergent Diseases in a Small World: Lessons from the AIDS Pandemic

Ricard V. Solé, Elisabetta Broglio and Rickard Sandell. WP33-2003 - 29.12.2003.

Over the past few decades, the concepts of ‘emergent diseases’ and ‘emergent viruses’ have attracted the attention of both scientists and politicians as a new threat to the economic and social stability of our world (Morse, 1993; Garrett, 1994). Not surprisingly, these two concepts are associated with other sources of environmental change, including the increasing evidence of an accelerated modification of our current climate and the degradation of the world’s ecosystems.

Military Recruitment in Times of Population Decline: Spain’s Missing Soldiers

Rickard Sandell. WP31-2003 - 5.12.2003.

Starting from the end of the 1990s, in less than ten years the number of people in Spain aged 18-28 has declined from 7 million to just under 5 million (considering both sexes). That is, young people are becoming increasingly scarce and, as a result, we can expect the competition for human resources to be fierce. This is likely to have consequences for most institutions in our society. However, it is not unlikely that the Spanish armed forces are facing –and will continue to face– the greatest difficulties in attracting young people. Current demographic developments will have serious implications for the numerical strength of the armed forces and consequently restrict their capacity to carry out their tasks effectively. This paper aims to establish the basis for a recruitment policy that can defy the current demographic developments and assesses the minimum recruitment target to be reached in order not to jeopardize the numerical strength of the armed forces in the future. The last part of the paper discusses a series of interrelated measures that should be considered to facilitate future recruitment efforts.

The Double Punch of Law and Technology: Fighting Online Music Piracy or Remaking Copyright in a Digital Age?

David Bach . WP29-2003 - 19.11.2003.

This paper assesses the technological, business, and political drivers of current intellectual property dynamics in the advanced industrial economies, particularly in the area of copyright

The Geopolitics of Currencies and the Future of the International System

Benjamin J. Cohen . WP28-2003 - 6.11.2003.

Geopolitics, the dictionary tells us, is about international great-power rivalries –the struggle for dominance among territorially defined states. Conflict is at the heart of geopolitics. Geopolitical relations are dynamic, strategic, and hierarchical. In geopolitics, the meek definitely do not inherit the earth. Today, much the same can be said about currencies, which in recent years have become increasingly competitive on a global scale. Monetary relations, too, have become conflictual and hierarchical; and the meek are similarly disadvantaged. At issue is a breakdown of the neat territorial monopolies that national governments have historically claimed in the management of money, a market-driven process that elsewhere I have described as the deterritorialization of money (Paper prepared for a conference on The Geopolitics of Currencies and Oil, Real Instituto Elcano, Madrid, 7 November 2003.)

The NATO-EU Strategic Partnership

José Luis Andrés Martín. WP15-2003 - 10.6.2003 (Translation from Spanish) .

The emergence of the EU Common Foreign and Security Policy (CFSP) early in the 90s and the European Security and Defence Policy (ESDP) late in the 90s has added complexity to the European Security Architecture. Although provided with a clear political aim from the outset, as an instrument of the CFSP, the operational implications of ESDP are being laid down on an empirical basis. To add further complexity, NATO/ESDP relationship has been established in principle, but with no formal empirical image.

Soft Power vs. Hard Power? The Transatlantic Military Capabilities Gap and the Future of US-European Security Relations

Martin Agüera . WP5-2003 - 17.1.2003.

The American defense efforts outreach the Europeans’ by far. Even a NATO Response Force, where both sides of the Atlantic harmonize training and requirements in the long run, will not change that. The situation has been like this for some time and the effects of September 11th have accelerated the military capabilities gap. A justified concern is that the existing gap in capabilities cannot be closed. The question is whether or not it needs to be closed at all.

Security and Defence Reform and the Roles of the State Institutions (WP)

Zvonimir Mahecic. WP 1/2003 - 10/01/2003.

Successfully executed security and defence reform can be considered as one of the most important paths towards achieving the goal of political, economic and social transition. In that sense, successful reform will help transitional countries to find their own security identity and bolster their position in the international security arena. It is also one of the most important and contributing factors of national reconstruction, a goal long overdue in many of the nations in South East Europe.

The Internationalisation of the Euro: State of Affairs and Critical Issues (WP)

Paul Isbell. WP 25/2003 - 12/09/2003.

The most recently available data suggests that the international role of the euro has grown since its inception as the European Union’s single currency. Nevertheless, for a variety of reasons, progress towards a more prominent international role has been only gradual. No significant changes have yet been documented (although anecdotal evidence is beginning to become more common) with respect to the euro’s presence within official reserves or its use in foreign exchange markets. On the other hand, use of the euro appears to have increased noticeably in trade transactions and significantly in global debt securities markets.

Ageing Populations: an Opportunity for Public Policy Reform

Rickard Sandell. WP20-2003 - 21.7.2003.

This paper analyses the socio-economic consequences of ageing and discusses as well as criticises available alternatives to reform the current European welfare model. It argues that the most common solutions proposed by the research community avoid addressing the main cause of the underlying problem of ageing –low or very low fertility. Avoiding the problem of low fertility is likely to make the proposed solutions ineffective in the long term, since sustained low fertility results in continued ageing and eventually population decline. The paper develops a theoretical model to calculate future pensions compensating for low fertility. It concludes with a set of five policy recommendations that are considered necessary if the political objective is sustained pensions and continued economic growth.

The Lisbon Agenda: Progress and Prospects

Eoin Gahan. WP14-2003 - 24.3.2003.

This working paper is intended to analyse the status of the so-called Lisbon Agenda, the programme of action adopted by the EU member states at the Lisbon Council meeting in October 2000. This programme set a target for the EU to become the most competitive region of the world by 2010, and listed a series of actions to be undertaken to achieve that goal. This paper first reviews the agenda itself, summarises and assesses its priorities, and then briefly reviews the way in which the agenda was adopted