The return of the generals? Civil-military relations in Latin America at times of pandemic

Román D. Ortiz. ARI 141/2020 (English version) - 10/12/2020.

This paper analyses changes in civil-military relations in Latin America in the crisis scenario created by the rise of organised crime, the deterioration in the socio-economic situation and the pandemic.

Artificial Intelligence and Cybersecurity: a promising but uncertain future

Matteo E. Bonfanti. ARI 139/2020 - 9/12/2020.

The adoption of AI-based solutions to achieve cyber-defensive/offensive objectives (“AI for Cybersecurity”) is promising but challenging too.

Biden is unlike Trump, also as regards China

Mario Esteban. ARI 136/2020 (English version) - 2/12/2020.

This paper analyses the implications of the election of Joe Biden on US policy towards China and for its European allies.

Monitoring countries’ commitment against illicit financial flows

Aitor Pérez and Gerardo Rodríguez. 27/11/2020.

This paper argues that engagement against illicit financial flows (IFFs) can easily be measured drawing on official and reliable sources that assess countries against standards on which they have previously agreed. An example of such measurement is provided drawing on the FATF peer review system, and it is suggested that the G20 use it to fill in this global governance gap.

Scenario analysis in Europe’s southern neighbourhood: the modern crystal ball for policy makers

Natalia Martín. ARI 133/2020 - 25/11/2020.

This paper analyses the increasing adoption of scenario analysis techniques in policy circles, putting a special emphasis on the advantages of using forecasting on areas like Europe’s southern neighbourhood, where the transnational nature of geopolitical and socio-economic challenges would greatly benefit from such an approach.

A logic of its own: the external presence in the Sahel

Nina Wilén. ARI 132/2020 - 24/11/2020.

The current instability in the Sahel has attracted a heavy international security presence to the region which has taken on a logic of its own. Yet there is a need to reflect on how the international presence and local power dynamics mutually shape each other to gain a more comprehensive understanding of why current efforts to stabilise the situation have fallen short.

Is the UNSC an obstacle to a geopolitical EU? Principled pragmatism and the legitimacy of CSDP deployments

Vasileios Theodosopoulos. ARI 124/2020 - 4/11/2020.

The legitimation of military Common Security and Defence Policy (CSDP) deployments will be an important aspect of the EU’s endeavour to evolve into a principled geopolitical power.

Fortress Europe: an authoritarian-populist construct?

Aitor Pérez. ARI 122/2020 - 30/10/2020.

According to civil society organisations, EU policies concerning vulnerable people in third countries –including migration, asylum and foreign aid– are on a regressive trend. This coincides with the rise of authoritarian-populist parties in European countries.

Refugees welcome? Cross-European public opinion on asylum seekers following the 2015 crisis

Sandra Bermúdez. ARI 119/2020 - 27/10/2020.

This study examines the preferences regarding solidarity and asylum seekers following the 2015 refugee crisis, by comparing different European countries, and how opinions on the issue have evolved over time.

Implications of the UK’s Russia Report for the next National Cyber Security Strategy

Danny Steed. ARI 116/2020 - 13/10/2020.

This article assesses the implications of the recent Russia Report ahead of the development of the next cyber security strategy for the UK due in 2021.