Coronavirus pandemic (COVID-19) special dossier
The coronavirus pandemic (COVID-19) has the potential for extraordinary consequences. We assess its impact at distinct levels and areas, and the global challenges of managing this crisis.
The Paris Agreement five years on: are congratulations in order?
Lara Lázaro-Touza. ARI 10/2021 - 25/1/2021.
Despite the Paris Agreement, there are significant emission and adaptation gaps, and climate finance is far from being aligned with climate goals. An orderly, just and profound transition is urgently needed. The COVID-19 recovery packages provide a one-off chance to help change course towards Paris.
The Biden-Harris Administration and climate change: good news, caveats and warnings
Lara Lázaro-Touza. ARI 9/2021 - 22/1/2021.
President-elect Joseph Biden has pledged to re-join the Paris Agreement, raise America’s climate ambition, ‘build back better’ (and greener) and reverse recent climate legislative rollbacks. The question remains as to whether the Biden-Harris Administration will be able to deliver and what this means for the global climate regime.
The EU-China investment agreement: a step in the right direction
Mario Esteban & Miguel Otero-Iglesias. Expert Comment 9/2021 (English version) - 19/1/2021.
The announcement of an investment agreement between the EU and China (EU-China Comprehensive Agreement on Investment, or CAI) on 30 December has generated a huge controversy.
Great power rivalry in the Middle East
Wojciech Michnik. Expert Comment 7/2021 - 18/1/2021.
Today three external powers –the US, China and Russia– are the leading players behind great power rivalry in the Middle East.The consequences of the Arab Uprisings, the decline of the post-Cold War order and increasing global rivalry between great powers have led to this regional competition anew.
Hacking Back unpacked: an eye for an eye? Not so fast
Stefan Soesanto. ARI 3/2021 - 14/1/2021.
Out of all the countries in the world, the hacking back debate has finally entered the political discourse in neutral Switzerland. While it is still too early to determine where the discussion will be heading toward, it is also the perfect time to insert a new perspective on hacking back.
Horizon 2030: assessing the impact of socio-economic and governance issues on the future of the MENA Region
Chloe Berger. ARI 2/2021 - 13/1/2021.
It is critical for NATO to understand the nature and the dynamics of the socio-economic and governance issues that aggravate the chronic instability in the MENA region.
The consequences of Brexit for Spain
William Chislett. ARI 1/2021 - 7/1/2021.
Spain has good reason to be relieved that the UK and EU struck a post-Brexit free-trade deal, given the importance of its economic relation with Britain.
The Portuguese Presidency: striking the balance between unfinished business and leaving its own mark
Nicoletta Pirozzi, Funda Tekin and Ilke Toygür. Expert Comment 2/2021 (English version) - 4/1/2021.
On 1 January 2021 Germany handed over the Presidency of the Council of the EU to Portugal.
Collaborative efforts to stimulate sustainable investment for COVID-19 recovery in developing countries
San Bilal. ARI 142/2020 - 30/12/2020.
Limited fiscal space in many developing countries demands collective efforts and EU leadership to help improve their macro-economic conditions and attract more investments for a higher impact and sustainability for recovery from COVID-19.
The Impact of the Biden Administration on Turkey-EU Relations
Kadri Tastan & Ilke Toygür. 23/12/2020.
On the task of preventing further drift with Turkey, the European Union and the United States face similar challenges.
The return of the generals? Civil-military relations in Latin America at times of pandemic
Román D. Ortiz. ARI 141/2020 (English version) - 10/12/2020.
This paper analyses changes in civil-military relations in Latin America in the crisis scenario created by the rise of organised crime, the deterioration in the socio-economic situation and the pandemic.
Artificial Intelligence and Cybersecurity: a promising but uncertain future
Matteo E. Bonfanti. ARI 139/2020 - 9/12/2020.
The adoption of AI-based solutions to achieve cyber-defensive/offensive objectives (“AI for Cybersecurity”) is promising but challenging too.
Biden is unlike Trump, also as regards China
Mario Esteban. ARI 136/2020 (English version) - 2/12/2020.
This paper analyses the implications of the election of Joe Biden on US policy towards China and for its European allies.
Monitoring countries’ commitment against illicit financial flows
Aitor Pérez and Gerardo Rodríguez. 27/11/2020.
This paper argues that engagement against illicit financial flows (IFFs) can easily be measured drawing on official and reliable sources that assess countries against standards on which they have previously agreed. An example of such measurement is provided drawing on the FATF peer review system, and it is suggested that the G20 use it to fill in this global governance gap.
Scenario analysis in Europe’s southern neighbourhood: the modern crystal ball for policy makers
Natalia Martín. ARI 133/2020 - 25/11/2020.
This paper analyses the increasing adoption of scenario analysis techniques in policy circles, putting a special emphasis on the advantages of using forecasting on areas like Europe’s southern neighbourhood, where the transnational nature of geopolitical and socio-economic challenges would greatly benefit from such an approach.
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