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International Economy & Trade - WP |
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Image and Reality: Contemporary Spain (WP)
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WP 45/2008 - 5/11/2008
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William Chislett
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Few developed nations have progressed so much as Spain over the past 30 years and yet still have a significant gap between how it and its companies are perceived abroad and the country’s business and socioeconomic reality. Generally speaking, Spain is still viewed, to a varying extent, as a land of siesta and fiesta. In order to change perceptions, it is necessary to reach some consensus among the main players on how the country should ideally be viewed and then work toward it on a coordinated basis.
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Climate Change in Spain: Friend and Foe–Causes, Consequences and Response– (WP)
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WP 26/2008 - 9/6/2008
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Lara Lázaro-Touza
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Climate change is unequivocal and Spain is one of the most vulnerable
countries within the EU. The consequences for
the Spanish economy will vary depending on the sector analysed.
Tourism, the construction sector and the insurance sector stand to
lose if mitigation and adaptation are further delayed.
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Energy Security with a High External Dependence: The Strategies of Japan and South Korea (WP)
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WP 16/2008 (Translated from Spanish) - 14/4/2008
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Pablo Bustelo
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Apart from China, there are two other large energy consumers in North-East Asia: Japan and South Korea. This Working Paper briefly addresses the position and energy forecasts for the two countries. It proceeds to analyse the strategic responses of Tokyo and Seoul to the deterioration (whether perceived or real) of their energy security, highlighting the strengths and weaknesses of each approach. Finally, the paper details some of the lessons that other countries which are highly dependent on energy imports might learn from the experience of Japan and South Korea.
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The Future of Gas and the Role of LNG: Economic and Geopolitical Implications (WP)
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WP 14/2008 - 11/3/2008
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René Snijder
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This paper provides an overview of the economic, regulatory and geopolitical implications of the trend towards a greater natural gas import dependency of the major natural gas markets and the potential for LNG. It is based on a presentation by the author on 15 October 2007 in the 7th working meeting of the Elcano Royal Institute’s energy group in Gijón (Spain).
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Energy and Geopolitics in Latin America (WP)
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WP 12/2008 (Translated from Spanish) - 10/3/2008
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Paul Isbell
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Since the beginning of this century, Latin America has become an increasingly important region on the world’s geopolitical map. Several economic and political features define Latin America’s current geopolitical situation and set it apart from other episodes of the region’s history.
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Russia and Europe: Mutual Dependence in the Energy Sector (WP)
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WP 25/2007 (Translated from Spanish) - 17/7/2007
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Antonio Sánchez Andrés
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Russia is one of the EU’s main energy suppliers, covering a considerable part of its imports. For this reason, there is increasing debate regarding the EU’s energy vulnerability vis-à-vis Russia. This paper will look at the various aspects of this dependence.
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Europe’s Place in Economic Globalisation (WP)
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WP 34/2007 - 05/11/2007 (Translated from Spanish)
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Federico Steinberg
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The data show that the EU, which still has a significant weight and influence in the world economy, looks "condemned" to lose them gradually due to the rise of emerging powers and the greater dynamism of the US. The only solution is to strengthen the EU and have it speak with one voice to the rest of the world.
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Foreign Direct Investment in Spain (WP)
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WP 47/2007 - 17/10/2007
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William Chislett
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Foreign direct investment (FDI) plays a prominent role in the Spanish economy. The inward FDI stock, according to the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD), stood at US$443.3 billion in 2006 and was divided up among more than 11,000 foreign companies (48 of them Fortune 100 companies) employing 1.27 million people (6.6% of total jobs).
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Central Asia in the EU’s Ever-changing Geo-strategic Horizon (WP)
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WP 29/2007 (Translated from Spanish) - 3/10/2007
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Augusto Soto
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This working paper aims to examine, whether it is possible to inscribe the EU’s relationship with Central Asia within the framework of short-term energy security or in the likelihood of an increase in energy interconnections in the long term. It also seeks to explore from the perspective of the second option the possible relations of the EU with Kazakhstan.
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The Economic Rise of China and India and its Implications for Spain (WP)
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WP 31/2007 (Translated from Spanish) - 8/8/2007
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Pablo Bustelo
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This paper deals, first,
with the general shape of the economic boom in China and India in recent
decades. It also examines the
medium-term outlook for these countries, highlighting their strengths and
weaknesses in terms of sustained economic development. Finally, the article
briefly lists some of the possible implications of the rise of China and India,
both now and in the future, for the Spanish economy.
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Spain’s Main Multinationals: An Increasing Force in the Economy (WP)
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WP 32/2007- 12/7/2007
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William Chislett
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Direct investment abroad has made parts of corporate Spain significant actors on the global stage in their own right. By expanding beyond Spain the more than 30 companies and banks mentioned in this paper (and there are others) have become bigger and stronger and so able to better defend their interests at home from predators and considerably boost and diversify their sources of income.
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The New Energy Scenario and its Geopolitical Implications (WP)
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WP 21/2007 (Translated from Spanish) - 2/7/2007
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Paul Isbell
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If the energy issue came to the forefront of world attention with the
outbreak of the Iraq crisis in the autumn of 2002 –after more than a
decade of absence from the international community’s strategic
concerns– over the past year it has emerged as the global strategic
issue par excellence.
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Political-Economic Relations Between Russia and North Africa (WP)
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WP 22/2006 (Translated from Spanish) - 7/11/2006
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Antonio Sánchez Andrés
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This paper addresses the
recent relations between Russia and the countries of North Africa. After
practically terminating in their entirety in the 90s, in the present decade relations
among these countries have grown and it appears that significant changes have
been underway in recent years.
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Oil and Gas in Latin America. An analysis of politics and international relations from the perspective of Venezuelan policy (WP)
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WP 20/2006 (Translated from Spanish) - 26/10/2006
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Genaro Arriagada Herrera
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Oil and gas play an
important role in relations between the United States and Venezuela, but also
in relations between and among Mexico, Cuba, Venezuela, Colombia, Brazil, Peru,
Ecuador, Argentina, Bolivia and Chile, to name only some of the key countries. The
discovery of new gas and oil reserves, and the exhaustion of others, is causing
changes in the relative importance of countries and in the relationships among
them. In some cases, this factor seems to have a greater impact than do changes
in a country’s military power or diplomatic strategy, or even the stability of
its government.
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New Landscapes, New Challenges: The Changing Strategic Horizon (WP)
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WP 18/2006 - 5/9/2006
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Paul Isbell and Rickard Sandell
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The strategic panorama is beginning to offer new scenarios and new challenges. Traditional risks continue to pose political, economic, diplomatic and military challenges (for Europe in general and Spain in particular) in a relatively familiar way in various parts of the world. But for several years new phenomena have been detected that could become problematic in the international scenario from a strategic perspective
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Fire-Breathing Dragons: Asia and the Challenge of Energy Security (WP)
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WP 17/2006 - 4/09/2006
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Paul Isbell
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Energy issues have recently moved to centre stage on the world arena. Oil and gas prices increased significantly during 2003 and 2004, and continued to do so throughout 2005 and 2006. Related to these price trends has been the emergence of Asia within the world economy and on the global energy scene. Fast-rising Asian demand for oil and gas has been responsible for much of the upward pressure on international prices during the past years
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China and the Geopolitics of Oil in the Asian Pacific Region
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WP38-2005 - 5.9.2005 (Translated from Spanish)
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Pablo Bustelo
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China’s growing demand for oil is significantly changing international energy geopolitics, especially in the Asia Pacific region. The recent growth in oil consumption, combined with forecasts of increased oil imports (especially from the Middle East), have led to deep concern among Chinese leaders regarding their country’s energy security. They are responding in a number of different ways. In particular, they are determined to increase the security and reliability of oil imports by searching for new sources of supply, and to control purchases and transport routes, while boosting national production at any cost. This is already causing tension and could lead to further disputes with the US and other big oil consumers, such as Japan and India, as well as with other Asia Pacific countries. However, enhanced cooperation among the big East Asian economies (China, Japan and South Korea) is also a possibility.
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Years of Living Dangerously: From the Twin Deficits to the Balance of Financial Terror?
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WP28-2005 - 1.6.2005
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Paul Isbell
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The US’s large and growing current account (or ‘external’) deficit, together with its significant government budget (or ‘internal’) deficit, has begun to place real limits on future US growth. Is current US growth sustainable in light of these ‘twin’ current account and government budget deficits? (Derived from, and based upon, a presentation given at the Casa de América in Madrid on 28 February 2005 in the Seminar ‘Tendencies in US Policies for the Next Four Years’)
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The Impact of US Foreign Direct Investment in Spain
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WP19-2005 - 10.5.2005 (Translation from Spanish)
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Gayle Allard, Rafael Pampillón
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On the basis of theory and empirical evidence, we can predict that US direct investment in Spain will prove to have contributed to the country’s economic growth, raised its technological level and possibly its productivity, increased its exports and provided its workforce with better-paid, higher-skilled jobs than those offered by local companies. This study sets out precisely to determine whether the macroeconomic statistics bear out our prediction that these effects have occurred in Spain
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Emigrant's Remittances in Spain: an Opportunity for Action Abroad
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WP3-2005 - 25.1.2005 (Translation from Spanish)
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Iñigo Moré
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In Spain, remittances are the main expression of international solidarity in economic terms, and the same is true globally, where the worldwide flow of remittances more than doubles Official Aid to Development globally. Yet these flows are much more than family charity. In net terms, remittances are currently the main vehicle to transfer funds from rich to poor countries. In gross terms, they exceed development aid, foreign investment or tourist revenues in most developing countries
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Hispanics in the US: Where the Business Opportunity is
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WP4-2005 - 26.1.2005
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M. Isabel Valdés
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No longer can any business afford to ignore the US Hispanic or Latino market. During the past four decades, a significant number of immigrants from every country in Latin America have become active members of the US consumer market. In less than 40 years the US Hispanic consumer market has more than quadrupled in size. However, understanding how the Hispanic market is segmented is vital for any business strategy to be successful.
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Adapting to a New Funding Relationship with Europe: Spain and Cohesion Policy
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WP53-2004 - 29.9.2004
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Keith Salmon
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Spain has enjoyed substantial net inflows of money from the European Union (EU) since accession in 1986, contributing to a strong growth performance relative to other EU member states. Specifically, as one of the poorer countries in the EU, Spain has attracted large sums of money through Cohesion Policy (embodying the Structural Funds and the Cohesion Fund). However, strong economic growth over the last decade has closed the income gap with the EU reducing eligibility for funding while raising payments to the EU budget
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Latin America’s Seven Mortal Sins: Myth, Reality and Consequences
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WP33-2004 - 4.6.2004
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José Juan Ruiz
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The heavy investments of important Spanish companies in Latin America in recent years have significantly increased Spain’s concern with the region’s macroeconomic developments. Unfortunately, most analyses of the region’s complex social and economic realities have unrealistically attempted to offer a brief yet conclusive evaluation of Latin America in its entirety, feeding one or another preconceived generalization, depending on the political agenda of the author in question. Indeed, either “Latin America is the region of the future” or it is a place that will continue to be so for a long time to come
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The impact of the Argentine crisis on the Spanish economy
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WP32-2004 - 1.4.2004
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Jorge Blázquez and Miguel Sebastián
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This report undertakes the first quantitative assessment of the impact of the Argentine crisis on the Spanish economy in terms of gross domestic product. The conclusion reached is that in the period 1999-–2002 Spain’s GDP would have risen an additional 0.8% were it not for the crisis
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Democracy and Trade: US Foreign Policy Towards Latin America
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WP30-2004 - 4.6.2004
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Arturo Valenzuela
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Current relations between Latin America and the US are marked by the Free Trade Area of the Americas (FTAA) negotiations, which are expected to be completed by 2005. However, it will first be necessary to remove a large number of obstacles, although the final signing of the accord should have highly significant consequences throughout the hemisphere
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Global Public Goods, Patents Protection and the Fight Against Infectious Diseases
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WP21-2004 - 3.5.2004
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Federico Steinberg
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An efficient supply of both health and investment in R&D -two international public goods- can only be achieved through interstate cooperation. It is a global responsibility to find a balance between the protection of property rights (ie, pharmaceutical patents) and the access to drugs at affordable prices by citizens suffering from infectious diseases in developing countries
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The Spanish Economic Experience: Lessons and Warnings for Latin America
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WP20-2004 - 3.5.2004
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Paul Isbell
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Ever since the collapse of the communist system, Spain has become a frequent point of reference for societies engaged in a transition to market democracy. Countries from the former ‘second’ and ‘third’ worlds have increasingly pointed to Spain as a possible model for their own democratic and market reforms
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Macroeconomic Instability and Contagion in Latin America (WP)
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WP 13/2004 - 1/04/2004
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Sebastian Edwards
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This paper deals with a number of issues related to macroeconomic instability in Latin America. First discuss some of the most important policy issues faced by the Latin American nations. These include the effectiveness of controls on capital inflows, contagion from external crises, the effect of exchange rate depreciation on output, the international transmission of the business cycle. Second, argues that the economic research agenda on Latin America should not ignore history. In Latin America, more so than in any other region in the world, there has been a self-destructing tendency for repeating historical
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The Geopolitics of Oil in Euroasia
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WP4-2004 - 14.1.2004
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Robert E. Ebel
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In today’s context, national security and energy security are so closely intertwined that it is inconceivable to consider them as separate issues. Energy-importing governments seek energy security –or security of supply– through the diversity of supply and the diversity of fuels consumed. Any oil- or gas-importing nation has limited choices when it comes to energy security. The United States imports oil from some 60 different suppliers, although this diversity is misleading, for it masks the importance of the Persian Gulf. Although a full substitute has yet to be found, and may never be, supplies from Russia and from the Caspian Sea are becoming increasingly important
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The Double Punch of Law and Technology: Fighting Online Music Piracy or Remaking Copyright in a Digital Age?
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WP29-2003 - 19.11.2003
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David Bach
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For the recording industry the case seems clear. Music sales are down for the third straight year. CD sales are now almost 20% lower than in 2000. Despite their successful campaign against Napster two years ago, online music sharing through peer-to-peer service such as KaZaA and Gnutella continues to flourish. To re-establish its pre-Napster margins, industry thinking goes, the record labels have to put an end to illegal music sharing over the Internet once and for all. Hence, the recent decision by the industry-leading Recording Industry Association of America (RIAA) to take the fight directly to file sharers, not merely to commercial file sharing services
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The Geopolitics of Currencies and the Future of the International System
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WP28-2003 - 6.11.2003
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Benjamin J. Cohen
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Geopolitics, the dictionary tells us, is about international great-power rivalries –the struggle for dominance among territorially defined states. Conflict is at the heart of geopolitics. Geopolitical relations are dynamic, strategic, and hierarchical. In geopolitics, the meek definitely do not inherit the earth. Today, much the same can be said about currencies, which in recent years have become increasingly competitive on a global scale. Monetary relations, too, have become conflictual and hierarchical; and the meek are similarly disadvantaged. At issue is a breakdown of the neat territorial monopolies that national governments have historically claimed in the management of money, a market-driven process that elsewhere I have described as the deterritorialization of money (Paper prepared for a conference on The Geopolitics of Currencies and Oil, Real Instituto Elcano, Madrid, 7 November 2003.)
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The Internationalisation of the Euro: State of Affairs and Critical Issues (WP)
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WP 25/2003 - 12/09/2003
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Paul Isbell
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The most recently available data suggests that the international role of the euro has grown since its inception as the European Union’s single currency. Nevertheless, for a variety of reasons, progress towards a more prominent international role has been only gradual. No significant changes have yet been documented (although anecdotal evidence is beginning to become more common) with respect to the euro’s presence within official reserves or its use in foreign exchange markets. On the other hand, use of the euro appears to have increased noticeably in trade transactions and significantly in global debt securities markets.
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Spain: From Protectionism to Advocacy of Liberalisation (WP)
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WP 10/2002 - 8/11/2002
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Dr Keith Salmon
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Liberalisation, which had been making inroads into this environment since the 1960s, mainly in terms of international trade, quickened in Spain during the 1980s and stepped up a gear in the 1990s. In the first six months of 2002, as holder of the Presidency of the European Council, it was given a platform on which to display its leadership in this area. The following discussion looks at the process of liberalisation, the particular character, tensions and contradictions of liberalisation within Spain and the contribution of the Spanish Presidency. It concludes with an assessment of the credibility of Spain as an advocate of liberalisation.
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The Lisbon Agenda: Progress and Prospects
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WP14-2003 - 24.3.2003
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Eoin Gahan
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This working paper is intended to analyse the status of the so-called Lisbon Agenda, the programme of action adopted by the EU member states at the Lisbon Council meeting in October 2000. This programme set a target for the EU to become the most competitive region of the world by 2010, and listed a series of actions to be undertaken to achieve that goal. This paper first reviews the agenda itself, summarises and assesses its priorities, and then briefly reviews the way in which the agenda was adopted
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Time for Spain to Support a New Direction on the Common Agricultural Policy?
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WP18-2002 - 23.12.2002
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Keith Salmon
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During the lifetime of all farm workers in Spain, the agricultural sector has been highly regulated and protected. In the 1980s the regulatory framework that had evolved during the Franco regime was replaced by that of the Common Agricultural Policy (CAP) of the European Community.
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