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Iran’s Regional Security Policy: Opportunities and Challenges (WP) WP 52/2008 - 16/12/2008 George Emile Irani This paper assesses and analyses Iran’s regional policy since the Iranian Revolution (February 1979) focusing on the last ten years. It is the first of three Working Papers in which the author will be looking at Iran’s regional and global policies.
Kosovo’s Independence from the Perspective of the Right to Free Determination (WP) WP 7/2008 (Translated from Spanish) - 10/4/2008 Romualdo Bermejo García and Cesáreo Gutiérrez Espada The political situation in Kosovo grew more complicated as the deadline approached for agreeing on a statute to define its future. Intense debate is guaranteed because whatever solution is agreed for Kosovo’s status will serve as a precedent for similar cases in Europe and elsewhere.
Prospective Intelligence-based Security (WP) WP 24/2006 (Translated from Spanish) - 6/11/2006 Andrés Montero Gómez Jihadist terrorism and global organised crime have not only challenged traditional concepts of domestic and foreign security, but are making evident that reactive security or security that is separate from intelligence are obsolete responses by States to threats.
CBMs in Latin America and the effect of arms acquisitions by Venezuela WP41-2005 - 22.9.2005 Mark Bromley and Catalina Perdomo The acquisition of military technology need not be a threat to regional stability and security. Nevertheless, the diffusion of military technology brings risks, and certain weapon systems acquired in certain contexts can have an adverse effect on regional stability. In addition, in certain regions of the world, particularly Africa and Latin America, illegal flows of small arms and light weapons from one country can pose a threat to the national security of another
Fear or Falsehood? Framing the 3/11 Terrorist Attacks in Madrid and Electoral Accountability WP24-2005 - 5.5.2005 José A. Olmeda This paper explores the following aspects of the terrorist attacks of 11 March 2004 in Madrid: Failures of organisation, anticipation and learning in the system of security crisis management (early alert and strategic surprise, information policy, police and intelligence leaks to the opposition and media, partisan politicisation of terrorist attacks) in comparison with the effective operation of the emergency respons; Whether the PP government mismanaged its relations with other elites and journalists, especially as it was unable to find compelling schemas that supported its main line of argument (‘the ETA authorship frame’) during the days before the election, while prime minister J.M. Aznar lost control of the frame because of his lack of credibility; and Under these circumstances, elite opponents and oppositional journalists could attain as much influence over framing as the government, and developed their own line assigning blame to the government (‘the government is lying’ frame), winning the both frame contest and the elections.
Armed Conflicts and International Security: A factual and analytical review WP7-2005 - 6.2.2005 Alyson J.K Bailes and Sharon Wiharta There can be no doubt about the dominance of conflict as a concern in modern security analysis and policy. Localized and active conflicts have attracted proportionately much greater attention since the ending of the East-West Cold War and, with it, of the essentially static military confrontation in Europe that had carried the potential for global annihilation. They produce more shock and shame, as well as concern, in the onlooker because they appear as exceptions to the trend of stabilization in inter-state and inter-regional relations since 1990 and as a reversion to “pre-modern” methods of behaving in the global society. They carry more complicated material implications for non-combatant states because of the generally increasing interdependence and “globalization” of the world economy
The Algerian Armed Forces: National and International Challenges (WP) WP 8/2004 - 1/04/2004 (Translated from Spanish) Carlos Echeverría Jesús Various changes, both within and outside Algeria, suggest a future of profound transformation in the country's Armed Forces, affecting their contribution to peace-keeping missions, civil-military relations, the debate on compulsory national service, the generation change in their upper echelons and the rationalization of the debate on their role in the democratization process
The long road to peace in Colombia (part 2). Colombia’s difficult relations with its neighbours: Venezuela WP5-2004 - 3.3.2004 (Translation from Spanish) Carlos Malamud Of all Colombia’s borders with its neighbours, the one it shares with Venezuela is the most active and troublesome. This 2,219 kilometre-long border has its daily ration of criminal activities, such as terrorist actions by paramilitary and guerrilla fighters, the comings and goings of drug traffickers and all kinds of rustlers and smugglers. The border is also a kind of privileged vantage point from which to witness the on-going deterioration of the relations between Presidents Chavez and Uribe
Military Recruitment in Times of Population Decline: Spain’s Missing Soldiers WP31-2003 - 5.12.2003 Rickard Sandell Starting from the end of the 1990s, in less than ten years the number of people in Spain aged 18-28 has declined from 7 million to just under 5 million (considering both sexes). That is, young people are becoming increasingly scarce and, as a result, we can expect the competition for human resources to be fierce. This is likely to have consequences for most institutions in our society. However, it is not unlikely that the Spanish armed forces are facing –and will continue to face– the greatest difficulties in attracting young people. Current demographic developments will have serious implications for the numerical strength of the armed forces and consequently restrict their capacity to carry out their tasks effectively. This paper aims to establish the basis for a recruitment policy that can defy the current demographic developments and assesses the minimum recruitment target to be reached in order not to jeopardize the numerical strength of the armed forces in the future. The last part of the paper discusses a series of interrelated measures that should be considered to facilitate future recruitment efforts.
The NATO-EU Strategic Partnership WP15-2003 - 10.6.2003 (Translation from Spanish) José Luis Andrés Martín The emergence of the EU Common Foreign and Security Policy (CFSP) early in the 90s and the European Security and Defence Policy (ESDP) late in the 90s has added complexity to the European Security Architecture. Although provided with a clear political aim from the outset, as an instrument of the CFSP, the operational implications of ESDP are being laid down on an empirical basis. To add further complexity, NATO/ESDP relationship has been established in principle, but with no formal empirical image.
Soft Power vs. Hard Power? The Transatlantic Military Capabilities Gap and the Future of US-European Security Relations WP5-2003 - 17.1.2003 Martin Agüera The American defense efforts outreach the Europeans’ by far. Even a NATO Response Force, where both sides of the Atlantic harmonize training and requirements in the long run, will not change that. The situation has been like this for some time and the effects of September 11th have accelerated the military capabilities gap. A justified concern is that the existing gap in capabilities cannot be closed. The question is whether or not it needs to be closed at all.
Security and Defence Reform and the Roles of the State Institutions (WP) WP 1/2003 - 10/01/2003 Zvonimir Mahecic Successfully executed security and defence reform can be considered as one of the most important paths towards achieving the goal of political, economic and social transition. In that sense, successful reform will help transitional countries to find their own security identity and bolster their position in the international security arena. It is also one of the most important and contributing factors of national reconstruction, a goal long overdue in many of the nations in South East Europe.
The Role of the Royal Armed Forces (FAR) in Modern Morocco WP12-2003 - 28.2.2003 (Translation from Spanish) Carlos Echeverría Our approach to the FAR will cover the conventional issues relating to all armed forces: the kind of missions of which they are capable, the units they comprise, their weaponry and its sources and their personnel. In the case of the FAR this has to be contextualised within the framework of the recent complex history of independent Morocco, a young nation set on longstanding foundations
For a Strenthening of European Union Foreign and Security Policy WP6-2002 - 7.10.2002 Martin Ortega In spite of their voluntary participation in an economic and political integration process, Member States preserve their constitutional system and many traditional competencies, including the most notable ones of foreign relations, security and defence. This therefore generates cohabitation between the new animal and the States that do not reflect the classic model, since they have willingly accepted the loss of some protagonism in order to cede it to the Union.
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