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ARI (Analisis of the Real Instituto Elcano) : U.S. - Transatlantic Dialogue
The US and Latin America: What Lies Ahead? (ARI) ARI 140/2008 - 3/11/2008 Ray Walser On 4 November American voters will choose the 44th President of the United States. While the voters have learnt much about the US presidential candidates’ views on Iraq, Afghanistan and other key foreign policy issues, little has been said about relations with Latin America. Despite its importance to the US, Latin America has not emerged as a significant topic of debate in the campaign.
What Latin America can Expect from the Next US President (ARI) ARI 135/2008 - 22/10/2008 Peter Hakim What can Latin America expect from the next US President, and what can the next US President expect from Latin America?
Trade and the US Presidential Election (ARI) ARI 113/2008 - 24/9/2008 Daniel Griswold The US Presidential candidates Barack Obama and John McCain have embraced sharply different positions on the important issue of international trade.
Transatlantic Politics After the 2008 Election (ARI) ARI 101/2008 - 12/9/2008 Robert J. Lieber The fundamental realities on which the Atlantic relationship rests remain in place and are highly unlikely to disappear at any time in the foreseeable future.
In Spain's interest: A Committed Foreign Policy (Translated from Spanish) - 2/7/2008 José Luis Rodríguez Zapatero An address by the Spanish Prime Minister José Luis Rodríguez Zapatero at the Prado Museum (Madrid) on 16 June 2008 organised by the Elcano Royal Institute, with the collaboration of the following Spanish institutions: CIDOB Foundation, FRIDE, ICEI and INCIPE. (This text is also available in French: Dans l’intérêt de l’Espagne: une politique extérieure engagée).
The economic relations between the European Union and the United States (ARI) ARI 16/2008 (Translated from Spanish) - 5/3/2008 Federico Steinberg The EU and the US are the world’s two most important economic blocs. This ARI examines their economic relations.
China’s Road to Peaceful Development and the United States (ARI) ARI 90/2007 - 27/7/2007 Wang Jisi This paper presents a Chinese perspective on China’s path to development, its place in world affairs and its relationship with the US.
China’s Rise and the Durability of US Leadership in Asia (ARI) ARI 89/2007 - 27/7/2007 Robert G. Sutter In this paper the author claims that the strength of China as a rising power in Asia has been overemphasised, while overall US power and influence in the region has not declined.
The Vienna Summit between Latin America / the Caribbean and the EU: relative success despite low expectations ARI 59/2006 (Translated from Spanish) - 3.7.2006 Günther Maihold The fourth EU–Latin America / Caribbean Summit was held on May 11-12, 2006, in Vienna, Austria. The results suggest that the process has a future, but that it needs to be significantly strengthened for more substantial biregional relations
How the Demand for Oil Drives American Foreign Policy ARI 74/2006 - 23.6.2006 Soeren Kern One of the most intractable national security challenges facing the United States today is its over-dependence on oil supplied from the most unstable parts of the world
America and Spain: renewing a strategic partnership 21.4.2006 Kurt Volker A keynote speech by Kurt Volker, Principal Deputy Assistant Secretary of State for European and Eurasian Affairs, provided during the CSIS /Elcano Royal Institute dialogue on U.S.-Spain bilateral relations (3 April, 2006). The third edition of these dialogues focused on four main issues facing the U.S.-Spanish relations: security and reconstruction in Afghanistan, democracy promotion in North Africa, Europe’s energy policy and security, the struggle against global terrorism, and political change in Latin America
Where Are the Neo-Cons? ARI 42/2006 - 6/4/2006 Soeren Kern The revised ‘National Security Strategy of the United States of America’, dated March 2006, explains the strategic underpinning of American foreign policy. It is the first revision of the original security doctrine developed by the Bush Administration in September 2002. The central thesis of the new strategy is that spreading democracy is the best way to build a better world. It also recognises the unique opportunities and formidable challenges posed by globalisation. While the revised document leaves US strategic priorities basically unchanged from before, they are restated in a tone that is much more diplomatic. They are also reformulated in an approach that is more pragmatic
George W. Bush’s Visit to the Indian Subcontinent (ARI) ARI 39/2006 (Translated from Spanish) - 5/4/2006 Eva Borreguero George W. Bush’s recent tour of South Asia concluded satisfactorily with Washington’s success in simultaneously bolstering relations with India and Pakistan, an unprecedented achievement. The American administration’s strategic realism has allowed it to achieve a triangular balance by which the two nations have agreed to accept the indirect benefits to be derived from the new situation
Can Afghanistan Be Rebuilt? ARI 30/2006 - 2.3.2006 Soeren Kern An international donor conference held in London has generated substantial new commitments of aid money for Afghanistan. The support comes amid a volatile security situation in the battered country and growing disillusionment among ordinary Afghans over the slowness of reconstruction
What Can Canada Teach Europe About Multilateralism? ARI 17/2006 - 17.2.2006 Soeren Kern The first Conservative government in Canada in more than a decade has pledged to recover the country’s lost geopolitical influence by increasing spending on defence and by improving relations with the United States
Can Multilateralism End the Nuclear Standoff with Iran? (ARI) ARI 13/2006 - 6.2.2006 Soeren Kern Meeting in an emergency session on 4 February, the 35-nation decision-making board of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) voted by an overwhelming margin to send Iran’s nuclear dossier to the United Nations Security Council. The move, which marks an important turning point in international diplomacy towards Iran, initiates a process that could end in punitive sanctions for Tehran if it fails to convince the world that its nuclear programme is for peaceful purposes only. The United States and several other countries believe Iran is trying to build a nuclear weapon. The decision to report Iran to the Security Council reflects a backroom compromise between the United States, Britain and France, which want immediate action on Iran, and Russia and China, which are seeking a delay. As a result, the Security Council will not decide on any concrete action until early March in order to give Iran a one-month grace period to comply with IAEA demands. In any case, it remains far from certain whether the often feckless Security Council will be able to prevent the need for military action to change Tehran’s behaviour, and thus turn Iran into a showcase example of effective multilateralism
The United States, Germany and the New Balance of Power in Europe ARI 9/2006 - 20.1.2006 Soeren Kern The meeting paved the way for an easing of tensions between Germany and the United States after three years of friction. In what Merkel called the opening of a ‘new chapter’ in US-German relations, she promised to work closely with Washington to achieve a common approach to the nuclear crisis in Iran. The two leaders also laid the groundwork for greater cooperation in the war on terror. And in an important shift in German policy, Merkel proclaimed that ‘NATO is the forum’ for transatlantic discussions about security. As American strategists digest all the good news, however, they will be most happy about her indirect repudiation of the long-standing Franco-German axis. Merkel’s efforts to strengthen Germany’s bilateral ties with pro-American allies such as Britain and Poland will restore to Berlin its traditional role as mediator between Europe and America. Merkel’s ascendancy will therefore re-establish a healthy balance in Europe, one that is Atlanticist in outlook
Why Bush Still Matters ARI 2/2006 - 12.1.2006 Soeren Kern US President George W. Bush, battered by a year of political setbacks, enters 2006 hoping to regain control of his legislative agenda and nurture a new democracy in Iraq, the make-or-break issue of his presidential legacy
What Are US Interests in Latin America? (ARI) ARI 141/2005 - 29.11.2005 Soeren Kern The fourth Summit of the Americas, held in Mar del Plata, Argentina on 4-5 November, offered an opportunity for the United States to reaffirm its commitment to Latin America. But the failure by leaders in the hemisphere even to agree on a final summit document increases the likelihood that the United States will further disengage from the restive region.
Will the United Nations be reformed? ARI N 131/2005 - 11.3.2005 Soeren Kern The September 2005 World Summit offered an historic opportunity to reshape the United Nations to better confront a range of global threats and challenges. But the gathering failed to find a solution to the UN’s core problem: the lack of a global consensus on multilateralism.
Why Changing the Security Council Threatens Broader UN Reform ARI 106/2005 - 29.7.2005 Soeren Kern ARI 106/2005 - 29.7.2005 After a decade of informal
Is Iran Heading Towards a Showdown with the US? ARI 85/2005 - 7.7.2005 Soeren Kern With the election of Tehran’s fundamentalist mayor as Iran’s new president, the hard-line clerical establishment has consolidated its power in all branches of the Iranian government. This will undermine the chance for reconciliation between Iran and the United States
Why the New Transatlantic Agenda Should, But Won’t, Be Reformed (ARI) ARI 51/2005 - 21/4/2005 Soeren Kern The New Transatlantic Agenda (NTA) was established in 1995 with the aim of reducing transatlantic tensions. Ten years later, the number of US-European disputes has multiplied and transatlantic relations are at their worst since 1945
Who is Running US Foreign Policy? (ARI) ARI 23/2005 - 17/2/2005 Soeren Kern The new line-up suggests that hawks have consolidated their hold on power and will dominate the US foreign policymaking machinery during the next four years. Indeed, Bush has retained in the National Security Council and the Department of Defense almost all of the hard-liners who drove policy on Iraq during the past four years
Are China and the US Drifting Towards War over Taiwan? ARI 37/2005 - 16.3.2005 Soeren Kern On 14 March China approved a law that codifies its long-standing threat to use military force if Taiwan formally declares independence. The measure could touch off a destabilising action-reaction cycle that could spin out of control and draw China into unnecessary armed conflict with the United States over Taiwan
Redefining National Boundaries: Changing Relations Between Diasporas and Latin American States (ARI) ARI 16/2005 - 3.2.2005 Rodolfo de la Garza and Jerónimo Cortina Primarily because of greatly increased immigration from Latin America, Latin American States are developing new relationships that emphasise immigrant concerns such as protecting immigrant rights, providing them assistance with a wide range of problems and supporting community-sponsored cultural activities. Governments are also working with their émigrés to mobilise them into lobbies that will act to advance home-country interests and to increase the sums emigrants remit to their home countries
Is the United States Going to Bomb Iran? ARI 12/2005 - 28.1.2005 Soeren Kern A recent flurry of statements by senior US officials indicates that the United States has opted to take a hard-line approach towards Iran, which many analysts believe could build a nuclear bomb within the next four years. European leaders have been quick to stress the need for diplomacy over military action. If EU diplomacy fails to end the standoff with Iran, a confrontation between Washington and Tehran appears inevitable
The Geopolitics of Tsunami Relief ARI 8/2005 - 20.1.2005 Soeren Kern The global response to the Indian Ocean seaquake and tsunami disaster has been unprecedented. More than 50 governments and agencies have pledged some US$5 billion in aid; companies and individuals have promised another US$1.5 billion. Although this generosity will create a number of diplomatic openings, the long-term implications for international politics will be limited
Continuity, Not Change: The Latino Vote in 2004 ARI 4/2005 - 12.1.2005 Rodolfo de la Garza The Latino vote in 2004 closely resembled the patterns of 2000. Most noteworthy is that despite claims to the contrary, there is no evidence of a substantial increase in support for President Bush. To the contrary, evidence from pre-election polls documents a consistent pattern of Democratic support. Moreover, exit polls showing an increase in Republican voting are methodologically flawed and unreliable. Also, given that neither party tried to mobilise Latinos in California, Texas, New York or Illinois, states where the majority of Latinos reside, it is reasonable to conclude that Latino Democrats turned out at unusually low rates. Thus, it is reasonable to argue that the votes Bush received in 2004 overstate his real level of support among Latinos
North Korea in the second Bush administration ARI Nº 190/2004 (Translation from Spanish) - 5.1.2004 Pablo Bustelo US policy on the nuclear crisis with North Korea may become both more active and stricter in the wake of President Bush’s re-election and the changes unveiled in his administration. If Washington decides to up the pressure on Pyongyang, either to force North Korea to capitulate, or to bring about regime change in the country, tension could mount rather than subside, causing an unnecessary escalade in the conflict. Defusing the crisis, on the other hand, requires greater flexibility and creativity on the part of the US, which is indeed what South Korea, China and Russia have been demanding for some time
Can the United Nations Be Reformed? ARI Nº 200/2004 - 23.12.2004 Soeren Kern United Nations Secretary General Kofi Annan on 2 December released his much anticipated report on internal reform. The report proposes to reshape the UN to make it both more effective and more equitable. It contains many sensible proposals that touch on everything from nuclear proliferation to looming pandemics. Nevertheless, most of the debate about the future of the UN revolves around the question of American power and influence. Indeed, the report includes proposals that set out to contain the use of US military force. This will play into the hands of powerful anti-UN voices in American politics, with the effect that few if any of the reform proposals will be implemented
Spanish-US Economic Relations: How Important are the Aznar-Zapatero Gyrations? ARI Nº 197/2004 - 22.12.2004 Paul Isbell While the Spanish-US economic relationship arguably remains relatively underdeveloped, our tentative conclusion is that the impact on the bilateral economic relationship of the Aznar-Zapatero gyrations in Spain’s political relationship with the US has proved relatively insignificant and is likely to remain marginal in the future
Why the United States Will Remain Assertive Abroad ARI Nº 182/2004 - 1.12.2004 Soeren Kern President George W. Bush’s nomination of Condoleezza Rice as Secretary of State is certain to put a more assertive stamp on US foreign policy during the next four years. By replacing Colin Powell, who frequently strayed from White House orthodoxy, Bush has signalled that he is determined to fix a dysfunctional relationship that hampered the execution of his foreign policy during his first term. Similar moves at the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) and the National Security Council (NSC) show that Bush aims to take full control of his national security bureaucracy, and imply that he and Vice President Dick Cheney will dominate all aspects of US foreign policy decision-making
The Issues of the Bush Victory in 2004: Terrorism, But Not Moral Values ARI Nº 177/2004 (Translation from Spanish) - 16.11.2004 Josep M. Colomer This paper analyses the issues that decisively shaped the election agenda during the United States presidential campaign and election of 2 November 2004. It can be expected that, during his second term, President George W. Bush will find different degrees of popular support to pursue new policy initiatives on various issues
What We Learned from the US Presidential Election ARI Nº 170/2004 - 4.11.2004 Soeren Kern The decisive re-election of President George W. Bush –with larger Republican majorities in both houses of Congress– confirms that the United States is a centre-right country. Nevertheless, the country remains divided. Indeed, the campaign highlighted cultural divisions within American society that in many ways reflect the source of the current tensions in trans-Atlantic relations
The Human Touch: Kerry vs Bush in the White House ARI Nº 168/2004 - 2.11.2004 Tomas Valasek Does it matter whether George W. Bush is re-elected to a second term? While there is little doubt that most Europeans would prefer a changing of the guard in the White House, it is equally true that on issues that most exasperate America’s allies on the old continent, the US president’s hands are tied. So is Europe not deluding itself in attaching so much importance to a changing of the guard? Or, on the contrary, could a different president make substantial changes in US policies towards Europe
Bush versus Kerry: The Economy in the Balance? (ARI - Part III) ARI Nº 164/2004 - 29.10.2004 Paul Isbell Beyond what each candidate broadly claims he would do with the economy, and given the global economic context, what is most likely to happen in the alternative economic scenarios of a Bush or a Kerry Presidency?
Bush versus Kerry: The Economy in the Balance? (ARI - Part II) ARI Nº 163/2004 - 29.10.2004 Paul Isbell What kind of international economic context will a President Bush or a President Kerry face? What does it imply for either candidate’s future potential room for manoeuvre?
Bush versus Kerry: The Economy in the Balance? ARI Nº 161/2004 - 26.10.2004 Paul Isbell Before the US presidential debates, it was widely agreed that while a majority of Americans still placed more faith in George Bush in matters concerning national security, most believed that John Kerry would deal with economic issues more effectively and fairly than has (or would) President Bush. Furthermore, while a growing consensus of analysts now claim –almost to the point of cliché– that the foreign policy stances of the two candidates are not radically different from each other their positions on economic matters do appear to be quite distinct and materially different
The Latino Vote in 2004 ARI Nº 157/2004 - 19.10.2004 Rodolfo O. de la Garza This article explores how electoral structures and partisanship interact with the size and distribution of the Hispanic population to shape the role Latinos will play in the 2004 presidential election
What We Learned from the US Presidential Debate ARI Nº 151/2004 - 6.10.2004 Soeren Kern The first debate of this year’s presidential campaign was about foreign policy–which candidate could best protect America in a dangerous world–. Overall, George W Bush and his Democratic challenger, John F Kerry, did not raise many new arguments. And in substance the two men share almost the exact same views on most major foreign policy issues, even if they differ in style. Nevertheless, the debate did offer some interesting details about how the candidates believe America should pursue its goals in the world
Bush or Kerry: Why the Substance of US Foreign Policy Will Not Change ARI Nº 148/2004 - 29.9.2004 Soeren Kern This is the biggest foreign-policy election in the United States since 1968. Because preventing nuclear terrorism will be the defining national security issue of the next administration, Iraq, Iran and North Korea will dominate US national security concerns. This means that US foreign policy will not fundamentally shift from the past four years, even if John Kerry wins the White House
Bush, Kerry and Iran ARI Nº 144/2004 - 24.9.2004 Soeren Kern Whether it’s Bush or Kerry in the White House next year, defusing the nuclear proliferation crisis with Iran –which many analysts believe will acquire nuclear weapons within the next four years– will constitute one of the most complex and pressing challenges facing the next administration
Calle Ocho and the Embargo: The Evolution of Cuban American Views on US-Cuba Policy[1] ARI Nº 140/2004 - 20.9.2004 Richard A. Figueroa This ARI analyses the influence of Hispanics on American foreign policy by focusing on the important role that Cuban Americans have played in maintaining a hallmark policy of the United States in fighting Communism: the Cuban Embargo
From 9-11 to 3-11: Spain’s Role in the European Union ARI Nº 48/2004 (Translation from Spanish) - 2.6.2004 Carlos Closa Montero September 11 has had an impact on the EU and the processes underway since then, especially the negotiations on the Constitution. Now, March 11 poses new questions regarding the possible repercussions of the terrible terrorist attacks committed in Madrid.
Terrorism Revisited (ARI) ARI Nº 59/2004 - 30/3/2004 Tomas Valasek One of the desired effects of the Madrid bombing seems to have been to splinter the Western alliance. The allies must see through the trap, acknowledge mistakes, produce a stricter definition of the threat of terrorism and create a new strategy for fighting its sources
Securitizing Migration after 11 March ARI Nº 56/2004 - 26.3.2003 James C. Ross This analysis draws on the recent experience of the United States to address perceived immigration risks since 9/11, and weighs the prospect of adopting similar approaches in Spain and the European Union following the 11 March terrorist attacks in Madrid
Improving America’s Image After 9/11: The Role of Public Diplomacy ARI Nº 85/2003 - 4.6.2003 Peter van Ham The US State Department’s response to the 9/11 attack —on top of the requisite bombing-campaign in Afghanistan and the toppling of Saddam Hussein in Iraq— was to conclude that a major part of the problem was America’s image. Since 9/11, the Bush Administration therefore initiated a flurry of initiatives to rebrand itself from a “global bully” to a “compassionate hegemon.” In an effort to touch the mythical man on the Arab street, special attention is now being paid to so-called “public diplomacy”
Spain’s Atlantic Vocation ARI Nº 80/2003 (Translation from spanish) - 2.6.2003 Emilio Lamo de Espinosa Over, above and regardless of the contrasting positions taken by the Spanish government and the opposition parties on the issue of Iraq, the apparent Atlanticism of the Spanish government is being questioned from various quarters. This article argues that it can be defended on five main counts: the fight against ETA terrorism, this being the only explicit reason given by the government; the Europe that is of interest to Spain in establishing a southern Atlantic axis within the EU, especially once the enlargement comes into effect; security along the southern flank of the Mediterranean, the weak point in Spain’s defensive alliances; Spanish investments in Latin America; and, lastly, the emergence of a latino presence in the United States
Freedom to Innovate? The Economic Implications of a Strict Property Rights Regime on Developing and Developed Countries ARI Nº 118-2002 - 13.12.2002 Andrew Mold The traditional justification for property rights protection is increasingly coming under challenge. More and more analysis suggests that patent protection is prejudicial for both developing and developed countries. This debate is placing the WTO's Trade-Related Intellectual Property Rights (TRIPs) regime in a new light.
Sovereign Debt Restructuring and Capital Flows to Emerging Economies ARI Nº 115-2002 - 11.12.2002 Fernando Fernández Méndez de Andés The involvement of the private sector in external crises is now under review. Proposals by the IMF to facilitate an orderly resolution of these crises are critically reviewed in this analysis.
NATO After Prague: New Missions, New Capabilities ARI Nº 112-2002 - 2.12.2002 William Hopkinson NATO has always had both military and political functions. Even if NATO is to die some of them will still need to be conserved. The important thing is to be clear which, and why. The Prague Summit has not helped much with that.
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