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ARI (Analisis of the Real Instituto Elcano) : Latin America
Taiwan-China Balancing Act in Latin America (ARI) ARI 154/2008 - 26/11/2008 Johanna Mendelson Forman and Susana Moreira This ARI reviews the current state of the Taiwan-China relationship in light of the current challenges Taiwan faces in keeping its Latin American allies loyal. More opportunities for shifting alliances now exist, especially given the current global economic meltdown which has had an impact on both China and Taiwan’s ability to sustain its assistance to many Latin American states.
The Energy Situation in Bolivia (ARI) ARI 118/2008 (Translated from Spanish) - 10/11/2008 Hugo del Granado Cosio The nationalisation of the hydrocarbon industry in Bolivia marks the culmination of a long, emotional battle by the ruling party to assert control over the country’s natural resources. The signing of new contracts with oil companies displayed the pragmatism and flexibility with which it can negotiate nationalisation measures, and the degree of influence that Hugo Chávez has come to exert over the Bolivian government.
The US and Latin America: What Lies Ahead? (ARI) ARI 140/2008 - 3/11/2008 Ray Walser On 4 November American voters will choose the 44th President of the United States. While the voters have learnt much about the US presidential candidates’ views on Iraq, Afghanistan and other key foreign policy issues, little has been said about relations with Latin America. Despite its importance to the US, Latin America has not emerged as a significant topic of debate in the campaign.
What Latin America can Expect from the Next US President (ARI) ARI 135/2008 - 22/10/2008 Peter Hakim What can Latin America expect from the next US President, and what can the next US President expect from Latin America?
The Lima Summit: A Meeting of Euro-Latin American Asymmetry (ARI) ARI 58/2008 (Translated from Spanish) - 8/7/2008 Günther Maihold The fifth edition of the LAC-EU Summit did not manage to escape the contradictions present at the previous meetings, although this time the Latin American and Caribbean Presidents clearly articulated their desire to receive a European response to the increasing heterogeneity in Latin America within a framework of fundamental asymmetry in the bi-regional relationship.
In Spain's interest: A Committed Foreign Policy (Translated from Spanish) - 2/7/2008 José Luis Rodríguez Zapatero An address by the Spanish Prime Minister José Luis Rodríguez Zapatero at the Prado Museum (Madrid) on 16 June 2008 organised by the Elcano Royal Institute, with the collaboration of the following Spanish institutions: CIDOB Foundation, FRIDE, ICEI and INCIPE. (This text is also available in French: Dans l’intérêt de l’Espagne: une politique extérieure engagée).
The ALBA Bloc: An Alternative Project for Latin America? (ARI) ARI 17/2008 (Translated from Spanish) - 6/3/2008 Josette Altmann The Venezuelan/Cuban proposal for the so–called ALBA (the Spanish acronym for Bolivarian Alternative for the Americas), which also includes Bolivia, Nicaragua and Dominica, is an alternative project designed to promote integration in Latin America and the Caribbean. This ARI looks at the initiative’s origin, evolution and concrete proposals.
Hugo Chávez and the Limits to Petropolitics (ARI) ARI 23/2008 - 25/2/2008 Paul Isbell Exxon Mobil’s conflict with PDVSA has revived Hugo Chávez’s perennial threat to cut off oil exports to the US.
Outside Players in Latin America (III): Relations with the European Union (ARI) ARI 8/2008 (Translated from Spanish) - 30/1/2007 Carlos Malamud The future of relations between the European Union and Latin America is full of question marks given the ambiguity on the part of almost all the players involved.
The Merida Initiative: Challenges in the Fight against Crime and Drug Trafficking in Mexico (ARI) ARI 130/2007 (translated from Spanish) - 18/12/2007 Raúl Benítez Manaut The Presidents of Mexico and the US agreed that Mexico would receive an aid package totalling US$1.4 billion over three years. The package was called the Merida Initiative so as to avoid being compared to the controversial Plan Colombia.
Venezuela: A Crossroads for its Production Development Model (ARI) ARI 107/2007 (Translated from Spanish) - 1/11/2007 Leonardo V. Vera In the midst of the biggest oil boom in the last three decades, Venezuela is advancing towards a new production model which is set to pose major challenges.
Energy in Bolivia (ARI) ARI 13/2007 (Translated from Spanish) - 28/2/2007 Hugo del Granado The nationalisation of hydrocarbons in Bolivia marked the end of a long struggle involving protests and political slogans by the ruling party in relation to the country’s natural resources. The signing of the new Operating Contracts with oil companies has made evident the pragmatism and flexibility with which it can negotiate nationalisation measures, as well as the degree of influence of Hugo Chávez on the Bolivian government.
Modernising National Defence: The Chilean Case (ARI) ARI 11/2007 (Translated from Spanish) - 28/2/2007 Marina Malamud Chile’s process of State reform has made progress in many spheres of the public administration; however, the modernisation of the Ministry of Defence is still pending, partly due to a heated internal political debate.
Hugo Chávez and the Future of Venezuelan Oil (II): The Looting of PdVSA and the Threat to its Production Levels (ARI) ARI 15/2007 (Translated from Spanish) - 27/2/2007 Paul Isbell This second part of the analysis concentrates on Chávez’s use of PdVSA to promote his social, political and geopolitical aims and the implications of this (ab)use for the future of the Venezuelan oil sector.
Hugo Chávez and the Future of Venezuelan Oil (I): The Resurgence of Energy Nationalism (ARI) ARI 14/2007 (Translated from Spanish) - 26/2/2007 Paul Isbell The recent oil price boom has generated unprecedented revenue for the Venezuelan government. However, it is far from clear that Hugo Chávez’s oil policy will ultimately benefit the broad masses of Venezuelans, to say nothing of the billons of energy consumers around the world.
Gas in Bolivia: Conflicts and Contracts (ARI) ARI 130/2006 - 27/12/2006 Norman Gall The ‘nationalisation’ agreement with the petroleum companies operating in Bolivia provides a badly needed political victory for President Evo Morales, whose government has been weakened by local and ideological disputes that have tested its credibility. Now the focus will be on the future investments needed to reverse expected production declines and meet expanding domestic and export demand.
Strengths and Weaknesses of US Trade and Development Policy: A Study of the Situation in Central America ARI 80/2006 (Translated from Spanish) - 4.9.2006 Diego Sánchez Ancochea This paper evaluates US trade and cooperation policy in Central America, focusing on the impact of the Free Trade Agreement between Central America, the Dominican Republic and the United States (DR-CAFTA) and of the Millennium Challenge Account on economic development in the region
The Economic Future of Central America After the Coming into Force of the DR-CAFTA: A Not Entirely Risk-Free Opportunity ARI 69/2006 (Translated from Spanish) - 4.9.2006 Fernando Rueda-Junquera This paper analyses the coming into force of the United States-Dominican Republic-Central America Free Trade Agreement (DR-CAFTA) and its consequences for the new Central American growth model
Gas: A Thorny Issue in Latin America (ARI)* ARI 48/2006 (Translated from Spanish) - 4.5.2006 Paul Isbell Following the energy crises in Brazil and Argentina earlier in the decade, and currently in the midst of a world-wide energy crisis, the major energy consumers in the southern extreme of the hemisphere have been exploring different options to ensure their future gas supplies, along with possible regional energy integration plans. All the formulae for adapting regional supply to demand raise political and economic problems difficult to resolve
What Are US Interests in Latin America? (ARI) ARI 141/2005 - 29.11.2005 Soeren Kern The fourth Summit of the Americas, held in Mar del Plata, Argentina on 4-5 November, offered an opportunity for the United States to reaffirm its commitment to Latin America. But the failure by leaders in the hemisphere even to agree on a final summit document increases the likelihood that the United States will further disengage from the restive region.
Bush versus Kerry: The Economy in the Balance? (ARI - Part III) ARI Nº 164/2004 - 29.10.2004 Paul Isbell Beyond what each candidate broadly claims he would do with the economy, and given the global economic context, what is most likely to happen in the alternative economic scenarios of a Bush or a Kerry Presidency?
The Latino Vote in 2004 ARI Nº 157/2004 - 19.10.2004 Rodolfo O. de la Garza This article explores how electoral structures and partisanship interact with the size and distribution of the Hispanic population to shape the role Latinos will play in the 2004 presidential election
Calle Ocho and the Embargo: The Evolution of Cuban American Views on US-Cuba Policy[1] ARI Nº 140/2004 - 20.9.2004 Richard A. Figueroa This ARI analyses the influence of Hispanics on American foreign policy by focusing on the important role that Cuban Americans have played in maintaining a hallmark policy of the United States in fighting Communism: the Cuban Embargo
Development prospects for Paraguay under the government of President Duarte Frutos ARI Nº 128/2004 - 20.7.2004 Andrew Nickson Plagued by political corruption, the recent economic performance of Paraguay has been dismal. For the first time since the transition to democracy began in 1989, the government of President Duarte Frutos is now laying the basis for improved governance and sustainable development
Hispano-Argentine relations and Basque terrorism ARI Nº 116/2004 (Translation from Spanish) - 30.6.2004 Carlos Malamud On 17 June the Argentine federal judge Claudio Bonadío threw out the request for extradition of the presumed Basque terrorist Jesús María Iriondo presented by the Spanish judge Baltasar Garzón. The aim of this article is to analyse how this will affect bilateral relations between Spain and Argentina, which of late both sides had been attempting to improve
Access to Justice: Reflections on the Concept, the Theory and its Application to Latin America’s Judicial Reforms ARI Nº 109/2004 - 9.6.2004 Linn Hammergren Access to justice has become a central theme in Latin American judicial reforms. Its apparent simplicity belies considerable ambiguity as to its precise meaning, the benefits it confers, and thus the methods whereby it is best advanced. While often interpreted as just a question of getting more people to court, for at least the last three decades observers have noted the inadequacy of this definition. Once it is discarded, the implications for programmes to enhance access are far less clear. This short essay reviews some of these issues and suggests an alternative, if not exactly easier, way of defining and operationalizing the concept
Latin America and human rights in Cuba ARI Nº 75/2004(Translation from Spanish) - 5.5.2004 Carlos Malamud Meeting at its Geneva headquarters on April 15, the United Nations Human Rights Commission voted in favour (22 to 21, with 10 abstentions) of a resolution on the state of human rights in Cuba. Like every year, it was one of the key moments at the meeting of the Commission, which once again confronted the governments of Washington and Havana. The Latin American vote was decisive
The Brazilian economy in Lula’s first year (Part II): the search for stability and the challenge of international insertion ARI Nº28/2004 - 17.3.2004 Alfredo Arahuetes García In the first part of this piece of research we analysed the performance of the Brazilian economy in 2003 and the key role assigned to fiscal policy in winning back the confidence of the financial markets and stabilising prices. In Part II we look at the state of the economy from an international standpoint, the difficulties encountered in reducing international vulnerability and Brazil’s complex insertion in the process of international globalisation in order to determine the possibilities of strengthening the balance of payments, Brazil’s ability to attract foreign investment and ways of improving the country’s liquidity and solvency ratios
Truths and Untruths Concerning the Summit of the Americas ARI Nº 8/2004 (Translation from Spanish) - 11.2.2004 Carlos Malamud The recent Special Summit of the Americas, held in Monterrey, Mexico, awoke considerable interest among the international press. But press accounts of what took place relied more on commonplace than on analysis; journalists present proved better at description than serious reflection
Towards a Cuba without Castros ARI Nº 6/2004 (Translation from Spanish) - 27.1.2004 Alcibíades J. Hidalgo Although simply an academic question for half a century, Cuba without Fidel Castro is now knocking on the door. Will it be succession, transition, peaceful change or another cycle of national violence? From here on, many parties –both in Cuba and elsewhere, including Europe– will play a role in the uncertain Cuban future
Argentina: post-election power struggles ARI Nº 114 (Traslation from Spanish) - 29.9.2003 Pablo Gerchunoff General and provincial elections in most parts of Argentina have begun to clarify the political scene. The agreement with the IMF has done likewise as far as the economy is concerned. However, aside from the president’s strong popular support, many doubts remain as to the future of Argentina, particularly with respect to the role of the Justicialist Party
Colombia, Brazil and the United Nations: is mediation the path to peace? ARI Nº 111/2003 (Traslation from Spanish) - 26.9.2003 Carlos Malamud When the Brazilian Government learned that President Uribe of Colombia was seeking UN mediation in an effort to achieve peace in his country, it asked whether it would be in order for a meeting between UN representatives and the Fuerzas Armadas Revolucionarias de Colombia (FARC) to take place in Brazil. The trip by President Lula to Cartagena de Indias on 17 September places Brazilian involvement in possible negotiations between the FARC and the UN firmly on the international agenda
Miami’s exile community faces changes in Cuba ARI Nº 95/2003 (Traslation from Spanish) - 14.7.2003 Marifeli Pérez-Stable Cuban Miami is not what it once was. Today, there are diverse opinions regarding the embargo and real dialogue with Havana. The changes taking place are providing the community with the necessary features for it to play a constructive albeit secondary role in the pending transition in Cuba
Menem’s withdrawal and the Future of Argentina ARI Nº 73/2003 (Translation from spanish) - 19.5.2003 Carlos Malamud On 14 May Carlos Menem said he would not run for office in the second round of the Argentinean presidential elections. This act of political irresponsibility left the presidency open to Néstor Kirchner but, at the same time, questioned the legitimacy of the new president and undermined the country’s democratic institutions
Cuba: Origins and Prospects of the Extreme Tension. ARI Nº 65/2003 (Translation from spanish) - 29.4.2003 Joaquín Roy The relationship between Cuba and the United States has undergone renewed tension. The reason for this is a complex mixture of the hijacking of Cuban aeroplanes and boats against the background of diplomatic clashes between the United States and Cuba. This atmosphere coincided in time with the war in Iraq, the final consequences of which are uncertain in their multiple dimensions. The imprisonment and trials of the dissidents resulted in the summary execution of some of the hijackers, which has given rise to widespread alarm and protest on a world scale
Prospects for Spain–Latin America–Asia-Pacific Triangulation ARI Nº 123-2002 - 20.12.2002 (Translation from spanish) Pablo Bustelo Triangulation between Spain, Latin America and Asia-Pacific is one of the initiatives of the Spanish government’s Asia-Pacific Framework Plan 2000-2002. It attempts to take advantage of solid Latin American relations and growing trans-Pacific links to defend Spain’s Asia-Pacific strategic interests.
Can Brazil Resist? ARI Nº 30-2002 - 22.7.2002 Paul Isbell Once again the international investment community is questioning the sustainability of Brazil's debt and the stability of its economy. The prospect of a change in economic policy as a result of the October elections and the habit of making simplified comparisons with Argentina have been the two principal sources of these fears.
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